Member Info for KeithOz

Europa - yes, they have confirmation: Will Holland, Chief Executive Officer of Europa, said: "I am delighted that our application has been granted and that we can continue with further technical studies of the licence and seeking a project partner. FEL 4/19 contains the large 1.5 TCF, low risk Inishkea West gas prospect which is a strategic asset that can potentially provide a reliable source of low emission energy for Ireland and play a key role in the transition to renewable green power. Given the proximity to existing infrastructure, a discovery at Inishkea West could be brought online quickly and would reduce Ireland's reliance on imported gas. Domestic gas from Inishkea West would have significantly lower carbon emissions than imported gas from the UK, Norway or further afield."

and,

Chariot are competing with us for use of SV101 for their newly-acquired onshore licence: " First drilling campaign of two wells is on track to commence around the end of Q1 2024. .... signature of a contract with Star Valley Drilling, for provision of the 101 rig which is already operating in country .... imminent approval expected of the environmental permit for up to 20 well operations across the licence area .... Precise timing for the drilling campaign will depend upon rig schedule and further updates will be provided in due course .... Work is also continuing with our partner ONHYM on success-case fast-track industrial commercialisation opportunities, with the possibility to deliver near-term cash flows."

"The behaviour of gases can be described by several laws based on experimental observations of their properties. The pressure of a given amount of gas is directly proportional to its absolute temperature, provided that the volume does not change (Amontons’s law). The volume of a given gas sample is directly proportional to its absolute temperature at constant pressure (Charles’s law). The volume of a given amount of gas is inversely proportional to its pressure when temperature is held constant (Boyle’s law). Under the same conditions of temperature and pressure, equal volumes of all gases contain the same number of molecules (Avogadro’s law). The equations describing these laws are special cases of the ideal gas law, PV=nRT, where P is the pressure of the gas, V is its volume, n is the number of moles of the gas, T is its kelvin temperature, and R is the ideal (universal) gas constant."

from ref above.

The effects of Boyle's Law, Amonton's Law, Charles' Law & Avogadro's Law on gas content of reservoirs -

🦖 It could make you rich🦖.

It's really not that complicated.

Here's a good place to start, it's all on one page:

https://pressbooks.online.ucf.edu/chemistryfundamentals/chapter/relating-pressure-volume-amount-and-temperature-the-ideal-gas-law/#:~:text=Key%20Concepts%20and%20Summary&text=of%20their%20properties.-,The%20pressure%20of%20a%20given%20amount%20of%20gas%20is%20directly,constant%20pressure%20(Charles's%20law).

@JapanHouse. You are more than 100% correct! The MOU-4 encountered the Jurassic reservoir 200m lower than expected. This means:

Area increases by 52 km².

Pressure increases by 285 psi just taking account of increased depth.

The unusually high geothermal gradient of 43°C / km (average 25-30) will increase the pressure even further.

The ITR suggests a reservoir thickness, but does not say how they derived the figure.

This is why GRH posted that people should be taking more notice of geometry.

Whatever, that's a lot of gas.

@Chesh. Thank you for publicly demonstrating that you are totally clueless.

1. There was already an RNS on the previous working day (Friday) announcing a start on or about the next working day (Monday).

2. An 0700 Monday RNS would need to be registered Friday, 2 days before testing had actually begun.

3. At 0700 in January it is still dark in Morocco, so unlikely they would have started by then.

4. I am told (I was asleep) that there was nothing available to buy at close on Friday, so your claim that the share price will open below 11p looks a little unlikely.

How about cutting your output 10-fold? It might give you time to think before you type.

@Rinkidink - I'm suggesting they had the same issue with MOU-3 & MOU-4 and resolved it successfully. I don't know what state the MOU-2 borehole is in.

I'll answer my own question - ITR, p.35: "The MOU-3 penetration was drilled overbalanced to control shale cavings from the overlying mass flow deposit". Interesting how easy it is to read stuff without realising what it is actually saying.

Anyone have thoughts on this one?

The diagram on p.17 of the ITR shows the various formations encountered by the four Guercif drill holes. The debris slide above the MOU-Fan that frustrated MOU-2 is shown as being present at and having been successfully penetrated by both MOU-3 & MOU-4. If this is correct, maybe lessons have been learnt about drilling mud composition and drill speed that will enable the re-entry and successful completion of MOU-2 to be a lot easier than some expect. Or is the debris slide of variable consistency, and was sticky mud only at MOU-2?

* What does it mean? Oxfordian refers to a geological time period159-154 Ma (million years before present), and therefore is classed as Upper Jurassic. Much of the early geological work was done in the UK, and hence many terms are UK-based - in this case the sequence of rocks around Oxford. They were formed around the start of the formation of the Atlantic in a shallow shelf sea with gradually rising sea levels, and consist mostly of mud / claystone, with a few interleaved sandstones and limestones, including reefs. These are sometimes hydrocarbon reservoirs in southern England. Much thicker limestone and sandstone sequences of Oxfordian age are found in the Gulf of Mexico, and form one of the world's most productive h/c systems.

* What's this got to do with Guercif? That was my first question! I was aware that in the Essaouira Basin in southern Morocco there are fractured carbonate reservoirs of Mid-Oxfordian age, with hydrocarbons sourced from underlying organic-rich Lower Oxfordian shales, and traps formed from underlying Triassic salt diapirs. But it has been assumed that there are no Oxfordian-age rocks around Guercif - take a look at the geological sequence on p.14 from this document from ONHYM (loads very slowly) https://hydrocarbons.onhym.com/sites/all/themes/hydrocarbure/images/pdf_onshore/Hydrocarbon%20Exploration%20Opportunities_Onshore.pdf

You can see there is a discontinuity between 161 - 97 Ma - meaning that rocks of this age (including Oxfordian) have been eroded away and are missing from the geological sequence. So I was very puzzled to read for the first time that PRD is investigating Oxfordian age prosects.

* So, what is going on? Remember that PRD were conducting fieldwork looking at Jurassic outcrops around Guercif? I suspect that they discovered that some of the 'missing' rock strata were actually still there, and had characteristics that could make them viable h/c prospects. A couple of you have picked up on the considerable detail about historic drill holes - two of these (MSD-1 & TAF-1X) went right down to the Lower Jurassic, so if the Upper Jurassic was actually there, they should have recorded it. TAF-2 & KDH-1 may also have picked up some traces of Oxfordian. I assume that PRD has been in discussions with ONHYM about this new potential opportunity, and detailed historic well logs have been released and examined.

* What does this mean for PRD? MOU-4 found the original Jurassic target 200m lower than expected - the prospect map has now been substantially updated in the ITR compared to the last CPR. It now appears likely that a second Upper Jurassic (Oxfordian) prospect lies stacked on top of the Lower Jurassic carbonate reef that we were calling MOU-NE / Titanosaurus, and other previously unidentified Oxfordian prospects are also on the licence area. MOU-5 will target the new stacked prospects.

* Conclusion - we're going to need a bigger boat.

This is a difficult one! I will present a calculation based on the price paid by Vermilion for Corrib, but this is highly speculative due to:

* The very significant changes in gas price over the last couple of years.

* Lack of clarity on the ongoing 'windfall tax' situation

* Corrib is already up & running.

* Whereas Corrib South will need 3d seismic (licence requirement), initial drilling with perhaps 30% gcos, up to 7 producer wells, and tieback to Corrib. I have no idea how much this would cost an acquiror.

* There is added value for Vermilion, since it keeps much of their existing infrastructure profit-generating for longer than originally planned.

Corrib South is 50% owned by PRD, 50% by Theseus, which in turn is jointly owned by Paul and an octogenarian geologist colleague from his Fastnet days. The figures below are nett for PRD's share.

Corrib South Resource - low/best/high - 92 / 212 /452 BCF

Remaining Corrib Resource 2022 - 594 BCF recoverable.

In 2022, Vermilion paid $434M for 36.5%, equivalent to $1.6Bn for the whole lot, or $2.7 M per BCF.

The same price applied to Corrib South would be 248 / 572 / 1220 $M for low / best /high.

We then need to adjust that number for risk & development costs - perhaps at best 25% of the above, giving a best estimate case of conveniently close to 25p per share.

Anyone with more knowledge of the development costs and likely tax situation, please help out.

For those of you wanting further upside, here's a little taster from p.58, indicating the conservative nature of this ITR. In the table showing the basis for volumetric calculation of the Ma Sands, which is based on one interval only 4m thick: "Up to 13 other thin sands that could flow gas if this test is successful within this interval"

OK, here's a couple of points as to why the initial volumetric estimate in the iTR is lower than some of our expectations:

🎇Only the limited horizons (Ma & TGB-2) to be tested under Phase !, and part of MOU-Fan to be tested by Phae 2(a) are included - all the other (substantial) horizons are grouped under Phase 2(b) and have no volumetrics assigned to them.

🎇MOU-NE has now grown even further, but only a limited higher-potential element is included in the calculations.

🎇Recognition is given to a whole bunch of other prospects, but no volume is assigned at this stage.

My conclusion - this is just the starter.

🦖 p.9 "Readers should note additional optional but as yet unconfirmed Phase 1 rigless testing of a small interval of the >50m thick MOU-3 Moulouya Fan reservoir has only currently been programmed to evaluate reservoir quality and potential gas flow rates at this specific location. This targeted perforation may allow the Company to improve upon the design of the Phase 2 rigless testing programme using Sandjet to further evaluate the Moulouya Fan with broader perforation intervals."

🦖 p. 9-10 "Scorpion Geoscience note potential for stacked pay intervals throughout a >700m thick succession of Miocene-aged turbiditic clastic reservoirs and shales, and as yet unexplored potential in an undrilled Jurassic porous carbonate platform play. Stratigraphic traps related to pinch-outs of Jurassic (Oxfordian) and Miocene sands situated around the flanks of the Guercif basin also contribute to as yet unexplored prospectivity. The discovery of additional prospective gas resources could provide an opportunity to add significant future project value with ready markets established for CNG."

🦖p.10 "The interpreted presence of potentially stacked Miocene gas discoveries based on specialist NuTech log analysis has demonstrated the potential for accumulations of gas in multiple, potentially high-quality reservoirs at depths in the range 339m to 1500m MD RKB. Significantly the potential for large accumulations exist due to the lack of compartmentalisation of the mapped seismic events" and "The gas potential of the Guercif area is further enhanced by the recognition by TransAtlantic of up to 39m of untested gas pay at the base of the Miocene in GRF-1 with average porosities of 20% and average gas saturation (Sg) of 20% in a location which is considered outside of the main prospects mapped by PRD."

🦖p.10, re MOU-NE "PRD is also seeking to drill a potentially large Jurassic-aged porous carbonate bank target, the extreme edge of which was penetrated in MOU-4 downdip from the crest of the large mapped seismic closure of up to 177km². A high-graded area totalling some 55.1km² has been identified as potentially being leached based on seismic characteristics offering a potential higher confidence zone to target the play which is now utilised as a low-case volumetric input in revised estimations provided by Scorpion Geoscience

An extra tick for some movement in Ireland, with "conclusion by end Q1". It will take a while to go through the ITR properly, I want to see the detail that makes the topline numbers look a lot less than anticipated.

If not, don't fill up the board with more moaning. Thank you.

@Zebra. You are mistaken in that you are confusing duration of individual sections of the Guercif (one F) Exploration Licence with the lifetime of the Licence itself, which runs until 2028. May I refer you to the most recent Prospectus: https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/08/20230810-Project-Allossaurus-Prospectus-FINAL.pdf

from p.33

"The Guercif PA initially ran for 8 years split into an Initial Period of 30 months, which commenced on 19 March 2019; a First Extension Period of 36 months duration; and a Second Extension Period also of 30 months. After each licence period there is an opportunity to withdraw from the licence, without entering the next licence period. A one year extension to the initial period of the Guercif PA was granted as a consequence of the restrictions that resulted from the COVID pandemic. As a result the Guercif PA was extended to 9 instead of 8 years with the initial period extended to 42 months."

PRD have completed the work required under each stage of the Exploration Licence, the request for an extension to the current stage is a formality. They are now intending to apply for an Exploitation Licence within the next couple of months, 4 years ahead of schedule. You will also find further detail on p.99 of the same document, which is p.6 of the CPR.

Time running out on your borrowed money bet?

@IG said: "They specifically said though that the ITR will be released before testing commences."

RNS said: "The Company will use it best endeavours to publish the ITR before the Phase 1 rigless testing commences." You do realise that an INDEPENDENT Technical Report is written by someone outside the company?

@JH said: "Why O why can't this company ever keep to a single timeline?"

Please provide your evidence that testing is not already underway.

...and it was p.13. The prize for spotting any additional material errors is 1 PRD share.

Of course that is 2022 CPR, not 2002.

@Ibiza, you ask if we have oil or are just assuming we have oil. The answer is we have oil.

For proof, may I refer you (and any other reasonably recent folks)

1. To an old X post of mine from a couple of years ago, when it was still called Twitter :

https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1504653923541393408

and

2. to the SLR 30th January 2002 CPR, p.9 :"The results of the 2006-07 surveys (Geo-Microbial Technologies Inc, March/April 2007) identify several hydrocarbon types in the Guercif basin: thermogenic dry gas and some condensate around the GRF-1 well; oil and gas/condensate around the MSD-1 well, over the Jezira anticline and in southwest; and oil

in all other anomalies. Particularly interesting is the abundant seepage in a large area around the TAF-1X well which appears to be oil rather than gas. The anomalies cover a larger area and have higher oil concentrations than the anomalies elsewhere. These surveys confirm there is an active hydrocarbon source system in the basin. "

I should point out that there is no oil pipeline system in Morocco, and only a mothballed refinery away on the Atlantic coast. For these reasons, oil exploration & production will almost certainly be left to a large company with deep pockets and a long timeframe - think of this as an added sweetener to the price that PRD may be able to negotiate for the Guercif gas assets. Quite correctly, the focus is monetising the discovered gas.