Member Info for KeithOz

3D seismic could cost anywhere between $10K - $100k per km² depending on resolution required, compared to perhaps $5k per km­ for 2D. 3D is of great importance for getting a $150M offshore well in exactly the right place, much less so when your onshore wells are less than $3m a pop. Paul & Lonny seem to have done pretty well so far using 2D, and I would expect them to continue not to bother with the time and expense of 3D for the shallow biogenic gas - these fields are likely to be of vast areal extent, and cheap, fast & easy to drill. There may be good reasons for using 3D for the Jurassic carbonates, where the reservoir structure is likely to be more complex, and this is one of the reasons that Paul has stated that he would leave the development to an outfit with deeper pockets and more employees.

It has always been the case that 2 or preferably 3 or more producing wells would be required for ensuring continuity of supply for CNG, and this is what there will be. For G2P, of course there will also need to be continuity of supply, and for greater gas offtake you will require greater gas flow, therefore more wells. Paul has made it quite clear that G2P is a project for another company.

All this is pretty obvious. I'm not sure why this topic is now being raised as a negative for PRD - it is simply not relevant to currently planned operations.

And...

"We are confident that potential gas flow rates using Sandjet will fulfil the potential 50 million cubic feet of gas per day profile facilitated by the Collaboration Agreement with Afriquia Gaz."

From Guercif local press (Government spokesman Mustafa Baitas) "Gas cylinder prices are increasing in Morocco at the moment. Paitas clarified, during a press conference following the Council of Ministers, that the increase expected at the beginning of April has been postponed until the public opinion is informed of the decision of its implementation later.

@thebold. References for depth please? - CHA have clearly stated that the deeper reservoir is the same as the discovery in LNB-1, and updip means shallower. LNB-1 did not TD early, otherwise they would not have encountered that potential reservoir formation. References for 26 days per drill please? Are they taking a fortnight's holiday on the middle of each just to upset PRD?

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but in order for others to assess such an opinion, it is necessary to have the facts on which that is based. An opinion based on further opinions is not very helpful.

@O&W. The only post I can see from Jimmy is at 11.28 today. He appears to have made his calculations based on SDX having use of the SV-101 first.

I said mid-May, assuming an immediate CHAR start. The times I have given below, as I clearly stated, are generous. Mid-May is still possible, depends when CHAR spud.

I posted on this subject yesterday, but it appears that someone has posted a whole load of nonsense on the same thread, thus ensuring it is deleted. This is a common troll tactic. So, since there is still debate on who has what drill when, here is my slightly more detailed understanding of what is going on in Morocco.

🦖 SDX are currently using the ONHYM drill.

🦖 CHAR will begin using the SV-101 on the Gaufrette, then the Dartois/Navette prospects. See tweet:

https://twitter.com/Chariot_Energy/status/1775407393771270632

These wells are not as deep as some here would like to claim - Gaufrette is updip from LNB-1 which was drilled by SDX to TD of 1861m - from the seismic, I would estimate the two CHAR wells to be around 1600 - 1700m, so would take maximum 15 days each, maybe less since this is known stratigraphy. see: https://www.euro-petrole.com/sdx-energy-inc-gas-discovery-at-lnb-1-well-morocco-n-i-16632

🦖 Next, SOU are completing their TE-6 & TE-7 wells for production. This is involves putting production casing into existing boreholes - see from 4.00 in this presentation :

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/investor-presentation-549

🦖 Then it is Predator's turn. MOU-5 is a shallow well, taking probably 8 days.

I don't know when CHAR will spud, but they seem to expect the rig imminently. From spud, allow 15 days for each well, 1 day to move between them. Then 3 days to move to Tendrara, max 5 days for workover of each well. 3 days to move to Guercif, 8 days to drill. That makes a generous 47 days maximum to MOU-5 spud. Please feel free to question these figures, but unless you state why you disagree, it will be a meaningless exercise.

A bit more T & T detail. I strongly suggest a re-read of the 11th Jan 2024 ITR.

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/01/Cory-Moruga_ITR_20230111-final-11.01.24-13.11-hours.pdf

Section 6, p.31 "Indicative Work programme" gives comprehensive details of the possible workovers / re-drills, and there is a map showing the location of the historic wells Figure 2, p.10. It is these locations that Lonny was re-assessing in March.

Most of these wells have never been properly tested, PRD are planning to clear out the bores, evaluate with NuTech logging, then SandJet interesting horizons. I am particularly interested to see what is in Rochard-1 and nearby wells - these should access extensions of the same EIGHT stacked reservoirs that have in the past been very productive for BP/Shell in the adjoining Moruga West Licence.

@Bridgedoggy. Lonny has just returned from T & T. He has apparently located a number of previous well locations, and will presumably soon let us know the proposed running order. My guess is that Snowcap-1 will be first, since that has the most data available and has previously flowed oil. There should not be the same sort of delays that we have experienced in Morocco - there is plenty of equipment available in-country.

Back in the real world....

FT article today (behind expensive paywall of course)

https://www.ft.com/content/1f93b9b2-b264-44e2-87cc-83c04d8f1e2b

pointing out that AI data centres will need a lot more energy than ordinary data centres, and that will need to come from gas. "A surge in demand for electricity to feed data centres and to power an artificial intelligence revolution will usher in a golden era for natural gas" and “Gas is the only cost-efficient energy generation capable of providing the type of 24/7 reliable power required by the big technology companies to power the AI boom".

All we need now is a new large supply of gas in a low-tax, politically stable jurisdiction, with existing infrastructure connected to markets currently paying a premium price.

As always, Q2 begins 1st April. Now it's past midday, I can confirm this was just a bit of fun on a day when the markets are closed. Actually, everything was scientifically accurate, other than there being 9-Carbon at Guercif. 9-Carbon does exist, and does degrade to Helium, but does not occur naturally, only in nuclear reactors, and has a radioactive half-life of only 125 milliseconds .

Q2 starts today, and we can look forward to a lot of interesting news over the next three months. We do have some new information, but I am unsure if this is positive or negative, and welcome your observations.

You may recall I have talked a little about biogenic vs thermogenic gas. Of course most will know all this, but a brief reminder for those of us that left school rather a long time ago. Natural gas is methane, chemical composition CH4. Bacterial action on organic material contained within sediment produces biogenic gas, in a shallow, low-temperature environment. Thermogenic gas is derived from oil subjected to high temperatures and pressures deeper within the earth. You can tell the difference by measuring the ratio of two different isotopes of the carbon that is a constituent of the methane – a higher ratio of 13-C to 12-C indicates biogenic gas, while low 13-C to 12-C indicates thermogenic gas.

Some of the Guercif gas analysis seemed a little odd, and the data have been re-examined. It would appear that as well as the usual suspects 13-C & 12-C, there is an anomalous amount of the carbon isotope 9-C. I can only speculate that this is something to do with the very unusual conditions when the organic matter was incorporated into the sediments, immediately preceding the Messinian Salinity Crisis.

I admit I had to look up 9C (try Googling “Carbon-9 isotope”), it does seem to be rather odd. Unusually, it is unstable, emitting electrons, protons and neutrons as it decays. This could be of concern, since burning it would produce a cloud of radioactive CO2, which could turn our Green friends purple. However, a closer look at the radio-decay pathway throws up something very interesting.

There are three possible decay pathways for 9-Carbon – 1. A ß-particle is emitted, giving rise to 9-Boron, this in turn decays to 8-Beryllium, then to 2x 4-Helium. 2. Both alpha & betas are emitted, giving rise to 5-Lithium, which in turn quickly decays to 4-Helium & 1-Hydrogen. 3. A beta and a proton are emitted, giving 8-Beryllium, which in turn rapidly decays to 2x 4-Helium, plus 1-Hydrogen.

So we may have radioactive methane, but this could be balanced by also having a source of Hydrogen and valuable Helium. I will know more when people in Europe are awake, and will post again later today.

My suggestions for succession planning highlight an interesting point. The people mentioned (plus many others I know of) are all readily identifiable public figures, have large shareholdings in PRD, and have lifetimes of relevant experience including working at director level in large (and very large) companies.

On the other hand, there is the little group of friends who appear at the same time to bolster each other's negative views. They are of course anonymous, never present any real knowledge of the industry or management experience, and are presumably not shareholders - indeed one even claims to be both a long-term shareholder and to have recently started buying.

Who should I believe? Such a difficult choice.

Maybe you will all awaken one day and have an epiphany moment and realise there is more to life than low-quality trolling.

In the event of Paul's untimely demise, Caterham7 will do the subsurface, Cube will do the finance, GRH will do the negotiations, and I will write the RNSs and do the presentations. Payment in shares.

@Roxi - I'm supposed to be enjoying a holiday, but is dark, cold & wet, so here goes...

To drill MOU-NE, five things are necessary:

1. Government approval. At the presentation exactly two weeks ago, Paul said that this was on track and expected in 'a couple of weeks'.

2. A drilling rig. The RNS of 5th February said that the SV-101 had been contracted. "MOU-5 is expected to be drilled between 1 April to 31 May 2024 in order to avail of in-country well services that will remain following the completion of the Company's rigless testing programme, which is currently underway, thereby reducing mobilisation costs for well equipment and services." At the presentation he confirmed this was still the case - my assumption is that they will complete drilling before the end of the current SandJet programme, so that they can roll the team & equipment straight on to testing MOU-5.

3. A wellhead, casing, cement, drilling fluid & other consumables. From the same RNS "The majority of the critical long lead items required for drilling are available from the Company's surplus well inventory stored in its Guercif warehouse, thereby potentially further reducing drilling costs." This is the shallowest of all the wells drilled so far, so less of everything is required.

4. A drill pad. Environmental approval for three potential sites was obtained last year. The satellite watchers have identified two possible sites that are in the right location, are the same size & shape as the other drill pads, and have recently been surfaced and provided with road access.

5. Money. It has been confirmed by RNS and verbally on several occasions that this is fully funded.

Oh look, the rig is booked (therefore a deposit has been paid) from April 1st. That's this Monday. Just as well that's a public holiday in the UK - if there was a 7.00am spud RNS, we wouldn't know if it was a prank or for real.

@MarkA - May I suggest you watch the recent presentation? The answers to all your questions are there.

@Howarda. The failure of SandJet at the Beacon Energy SCHB-2 well has been mentioned here on several occasions. What is not mentioned is that this was an oil well, with different reservoir geology and different drilling fluid. The Guercif reservoirs are for the most part extremely friable, loosely compacted sands. While this makes them liable to intrusion by drilling fluids, it also means that the crumbly texture should easily be amenable to SandJet technology. The gas behind the occluded zone is at high pressure, and should flow more readily than oil, which is of course much more viscous.

It is these reservoir characteristics that have contributed to the delay in testing. Conventional explosive perforation was always going to be problematic, due both to potential lack of adequate penetration depth, and to the propensity for explosives to compact and plasticise friable reservoir material. Plan B is not to use deeper explosive perforation, this would most likely make matters worse.

I expect that they will not initially use SandJet for the very limited horizons where they have used explosive perforation, but will start with the large range of virgin horizons. I would be very surprised if this is unsuccessful, but if so, the next step would be to try chemical stimulation to dissolve through the intruded material. Finally, as you have suggested, a sidetrack would be used. This is not at all unusual practice, and is neither technically demanding nor expensive - involving re-entry of the existing well, then diverting the drill direction before the problematic horizon is reached.

If PRD reached that stage, I would expect that should a (small) fundraise be required, it would be done after MOU-NE has been drilled, and thus hopefully at a much higher share price. MOU-NE carbonate reservoirs are much less likely to exhibit the same problems. My preferred alternative to find the cash would be to divert it from the Cory-Moruga programme, where PRD management have already indicated that they have flexibility over timing and range of activities.

Why do you find this bizarre? Do you know who Adnan Samarrai was? (Hint - Kirkuk, Shaikan, Sheik Adi, Ber Bahr among others). Are you aware that he reviewed the Guercif data and was very impressed? I think I will take his opinion over yours.

From the article posted by Bob:

"In the short term, the plan aims to support gas pipelines connecting domestic gas production basins to consumers, as well as the development of a LNG terminal at the port of Nador West Med and a new gas pipeline to connect the terminal to the Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline. " (This will run alongside the Nador - Guercif highway currently under construction, right across the top of the MOU-NE Jurassic prospect, and connect to the MEG at Guercif).

and

"In 2022, Morocco’s gas subsidies reached unprecedented high levels, with the state subsidies fund covering 74% of the original price for a unit of a gas bottle, amounting to MAD 116 ($12.8)."

My assumptions were

1/. that the government will be falling over themselves to get the PRD CNG facility up and running in order to save money paid out in subsidies for expensive gas from Spain,

2/. Consumers will be delighted to have a secure supply of cheaper gas.

3/. It even gives the PM a reason for getting things moving quickly that isn't just in his self-interest.

4/. Whoever purchases the Guercif resource will have a ready distribution network for G2P & G2EU.

But...but... I read on this very board that there is no market for low cost CNG in Morocco, it will take years for the PRD CNG operation to reach breakeven, and furthermore bureaucracy will slow permitting and may even prevent transport of CNG by road tankers. At the very least, extra fire trucks and military escorts will be required. I also read here that the flow of the MEG cannot readily be reversed, and that the Spanish supply contract will prevent Guercif gas being transported through it. What am I to believe? - Nigel is always right, he tells us so all the time.