Member Info for KeithOz

On Twitter, Ben was called "a New Age CEO". So he may be waiting a day for the RNS - at 5.46am UK time tomorrow it is new moon, and the start of the Year of the Black Water Tiger. Chao Kung Ming, the God of Wealth, is depicted riding on a black tiger. Useful advice - Dumplings and spring rolls are a sign of prosperity and wealth; it’s believed the more dumplings you eat during the celebrations, the more money you will make in the new year.
Another interesting date is 18th February, when from 3-5am it is a very auspicious coincidence of Black-Water Tiger Year, Black-Water Tiger Month, Black-Water Tiger Day, and Black-Water Tiger Hour. First assays, anyone?

I've had a chance to look over the old seismic. It's obvious that there is a large series of NW-SE trending slip faults that are acting as lateral seals. Some of that data is poor definition, hopefully the survey currently being analysed will fill in the gaps.
The Lake Bed Formations are poorly consolidated, so there is a distinct possibility that similar smaller and shallower faults did not show up on the earlier seismic surveys, and that the failure of Tai-2 was caused by such a fault sealing laterally between Tai-1 & Tai-2.

I agree with my fellow antipodean that the surface seeps identified by MSS are most likely to be directly over the traps. I suspect that the MMS image we were teased on Twitter was just to reassure that there is Helium at Tai, and that we will be drilling there again this season, as already stated by Lorna & David. I don't think it's worth speculating on exactly where the next drills will be until we see the final data.

Sorry, I've been busy on the KAV board! Great work Skittish, I am sure that you are working along the right lines, I was hoping that we were going to get a view of the latest seismic so that we could compare it to the MSS just as you have done. The orientation of the faults in the prospectus does appear to match the surface features you have identified, but I would like to see some more detailed seismic data that confirms that.

Now, faults could be doing two things:
1. Acting as channels to take Helium to the surface, and we are therefore seeing surface expressions of those faults in the MSS data, or
2. Acting as lateral seals and preventing a leak, and we are therefore seeing surface seeps from overflowing reservoirs between faults.

If you are correct in your identification of the positions of the faulting, it seems reasonable that the second option is correct - the highest seep concentration seems to be between the assumed fault lines, not aligned over them. I do like the idea of a trap overflowing due to an inexhaustible supply from below!

Both these possible effects of fault lines are observed with standard oil & gas exploration, and multispectral or hyperspectral imaging techniques are being used more frequently as a result of their very high success rate in locating reservoirs. Natural gas often produces 'clouds' or 'chimneys' in the strata above reservoirs, which can be detected both in the seismic data and as surface seeps. The presence of chimneys hugely increases the chances of making an economic discovery. Try Googling "gas chimney seismic" for some pictures.

As I said here on 27th Jan: "With a proper specialist rig and team, guided by improved seismic integrated with what looks like fantastic MSS data, I am very confident that we will see a successful drilling campaign later this year."

Hi Ella, whether you buy, sell or hold your shares, or distribute them to the needy, is your business and yours alone. However, I am a little curious as to how you have arrived at your list of negatives. Please don't take this personally, but since you have posted them publicly, I think it is reasonable for others to say if they disagree, and why.

1. We don't know what the conductor in area A is. DHEM has not been completed, but should be happening about now, that should give a reasonable 3D picture, and the assays and in particular the petrographic analysis will tell us the rest. Under market rules, KAV management may only release facts, not their personal opinions.

2. We haven't had any assays back, KAV have no control over when they will be done, so no story to change.

3. Graphite would not give a high magnetic reading nor a high gravity reading, so I don't understand how you have come to that conclusion. The original data was from low-definition aerial surveys, the current ground data is much higher quality. AMT has not yet been done for the GRS, so that can't indicate graphite either. What it will do is define whatever is there in 3D.

4. The first hole in area B / GRS intersected the Proterozoic gabbro exactly at the depth predicted.

5. I cannot see any obvious reasons for a Kanye IPO either - maybe this is why it has been delayed for so long.

6. Most of the options have been issued to new staff. As Ben has explained, it is difficult for a small outfit such as KAV to recruit top experts, since they cannot compete with the majors on salary - therefore they incentivise highly qualified staff to join by offering them share options. I am very impressed with the quality and experience of recent hires - these are all people who are very well able to make up their own minds as to the value of KAV in a year or so's time, and they have all decided that they can do better financially from options on KAV shares rather than high salaries. This is a case of dilution in order to invest, rather than dilution just to keep the company running.

7. I agree there are engineering challenges, but they appear to be able to address them by making appropriate modifications to the drilling procedures. If it was technically easy, someone else would have found everything already.

May I ask, if you could see both positives and negatives, why did you not decide to just sell half?

All the best with your overall investment strategy, I hope we see you back in a (successful) KAV in the near future. - Keith

A quick run over the Khoemacau Banana Zone data.

The drilling and estimates were done way back in 2014. Clearly they have prioritised other areas that have a higher copper content - Banana has around 1%, half that of Zeta, Mango, etc.

Mineralisation extends a long way down on all their prospects Most of the drilling has been on prospects other than Banana, with Measured resources in the top 200m (closely spaced drilling) and Indicated down to 400m. I am dubious if the Inferred resource would be economic, given the depth.

Banana resources are not well defined, due to widely spaced drilling, although they have done more detailed work on smaller sections that appear to be higher grade.
For the Banana Zone itself, Measured resource is around 1Mt @ 1.15% Cu, plus 19g/T Ag. This gives a value per T of $110 Cu + $14 Ag, so in-ground value of around $125M. Indicated resource in ground value is $2.5Bn (there is an error in their table - it reads 1.7% Cu, it should be 1.17%), but due to widely spaced drilling this is less certain. I am discounting Inferred resource, since at -400 to -1000m it looks too deep to be economic, although of course I have been known to be wrong.

One interesting geological, as opposed to mining, bit. The mineralisation in the KCB occurs in the Ngwako Pan formation, directly below contact with the overlying D'Kar sediments. In the Banana Zone, the top of of the anticline where these two meet, and where you would expect mineral deposition, has been eroded. Our mirror-image retains the whole of the anticline, so maybe we have the potential for more mineralisation.

Avanti cheaper than HE1? lmao. Some FACTS:

* land holding 69K acres = 255 km2
* biggest red flag on the planet - NO CPR
* "management estimate" best case of 4.4Bn ft3
* "Estimates are undiscovered and UN-RISKED and based on management's geological interpretation of the properties."
* up to 2% He in other companies' wells 'nearby'
* one well drilled has He shows only, not yet deemed commercial - also is pretty deep (=expensive) @ 5860 ft
* IPO at C$ 7.00, now C$ 1.50
* market cap of C$ 64M = £37 M.
* "What sets Avanti apart from its peers is the proprietary O&G model that the company is building - the nature of this work is confidential so, for now, investors will need to have faith in the skill of the Avanti team."

Avanti = obviously a screaming bargain (not). Buzz = obviously a screaming A...H...

All correct Noob. Done that analysis, update it regularly, that's why I was invested in HE1 pre-listing and am still here. I find it fascinating that none of the doom mongers ever give an explanation of their position that stands up to rational analysis. I have 19 people here on filter - not because I disagree with their views, but because they contribute nothing useful, and I have better things to do with my time than wade through pages of cr@p.

British Mike, let me try to give a more polite reply to your concerns re different Siemens readings. This is what I wrote here on January 21st, in response to a similar query:

Two different geophysical methods are being used, TDEM (Time Domain ElectroMagnetic) and DHEM (DownHole Electromagnetic).

"TDEM is a relatively new technique, and although Spectral are quite possibly the leading outfit using this, it needs fine-tuning for different geological settings. Since it is done from the surface, results are going to be obscured by the rock between surface and the hoped-for target. In our case we have 500m of different rock types including sandstones, shales, coal beds, volcanics and ultramafic intrusions. This needs some careful interpretation, and ideally calibration against alternative geophysical methods and of course examination of the actual rock from the drill core. You may recall that the initial TDEM results were also sent to 3 different independent experts for their input. This cross-calibration and evaluation is exactly what KAV are doing in this series of drills, with the intention of coming up with an accurate template for applying to identify new targets.

DHEM is a well-established technique, and is recognised as being very accurate - not only are you a lot closer to the target, without the intervening thickness of obscuring rock, but you can also run the scans at different depth, giving you a 3D view. I would not assume that you will get a higher reading the closer to a conductor - but it is reasonable to assume that it will be a more accurate conductance reading. Of course the big problem is that you need a borehole to begin with - which don't come cheap, especially if you are off-target."

So TDEM is a great cheap way to locate something underground, DHEM requires an expensive borehole but is the gold standard. Using the two together is a cost-effective methodology that KAV are taking to a new level in the difficult situation of highly prospective ground obscured by thick Kalahari sands.

btw, as others have pointed out, it is pointless to try to make a comparison between ADV and KAV.

Thank you Wacky! Encouraging that there is an established regulatory path that PRD is still legally able to follow, presumably if there is a requirement to demonstrate funding, that would come from a farm out. With the bizarre situation of plans for lots of new gas-fired power stations, but no available gas supply, I would hope there are plenty of eager potential partners to talk to.

On page 2 of the attached news release, you can see a plot of He & H ground leakage in Central Australia. The greater concentration is indicated by darker blue, i.e., it is false-colour imaging.

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYL4w20yRX2v%2FB16bFiGug%3D

Very interesting Dai, but how do you filter out the reflections of the 78% N in the very large air column through which the satellite is looking, and just view the small volume coming up through the ground with 92% N, 8% He? The multispectral and hyperspectral imaging systems that are primarily used for detection of hydrocarbons work by capturing the reflectivity of very small segments of the spectrum (visible & invisible), and imaging that in a false-colour map. I am not sure which wavelengths work best for He detection, but the map we have seen on Twitter will likely incorporate IR & UV as well as visible light, and is almost certainly not representative of real colours. The MSSI/HSSI maps used for natural gas commonly range across all the colours of the rainbow, the colours are only representational for ease of interpretation, they are not the actual colours reflected by the gas.

The famous Sudbury, Ontario CuNiPGE deposits were formed by meteorite impact - here's an article from 'Geology for Investors'. Just an outside chance of something like this for the Great Red Spot a billion+ years ago - no impact breccia has been detected, but who knows what lies beneath the Kalahari sands, and what caused the crustal rifts of the KSZ?

https://www.geologyforinvestors.com/sudbury-ancient-apocalypse-to-modern-resource/

Buzz, before I filter you for your consistently non-useful contributions:
I have been invested in HE1 since when they were still a twinkle in Solo Oil's eye, and through birth via Attis. I have also been a shareholder in BlueStar for over a year - before Helium Ventures bought in.
BlueStar will certainly provide a reasonable return over the next 6 months, since they are just starting an extensive drilling programme, but the reservoirs are shallow and relatively small. The overall opportunity is far smaller than HE1, so I have a much larger investment in HE1. I have stated this previously on this BB, together with my strategy of progressively selling out of BlueStar over the next few months and reinvesting it in more HE1.
Avanti is a poor investment choice.
'bye.

FS Sam, Thanks for this response, but to me the government view still seems unclear. In the Dail question time video, the gentleman with the better tailor says:
"The same thing applies for exploration. There's already a lot of existing licences, and these licences stand, people can use those licences, and if more gas is discovered as a consequence of exploration on those licences, that gas can be brought ashore. But we don't think it makes sense to issue new licences which wouldn't be acted upon for decades"

What I am seeking clarification upon is if our Licencing Options fall under the category of existing licences, or new licences, as outlined in the speech above. If the latter, that would require a change in Irish legislation, which they do not seem keen to implement.

I don't pretend to understand Irish politics, nor indeed just about anything related to Ireland, but surely PRD do need some action from the government in order to convert the two Licensing Options into Frontier Exploration Licences. It was my understanding that existing hydrocarbon licences were being honoured despite the anti-HC stance of the government, but I don't know if this also covers Licencing Options.

Does anyone know the current status of these - have applications for conversion been made? If so, does the new EU position over natural gas now enable review or grant of an application? What is required for PRD to be able to start work or to talk with potential partners? It seems there is huge potential value for PRD tied up in this process.

Ella - thanks, that was the one I was trying to recall, but I had lost the reference. In the text it says:
" Based on observations in the core and the borehole EM survey, the conductivity appears to be centred above the hole and caused by sheared graphitic sediments."

JP- graphite is usually produced by metamorphism of carboniferous sedimentary rocks. Although there are coal beds in the stratigraphic column in area B, I don't think KAV have found evidence of the required temperatures and pressures at this depth and age. Typically, economic graphite deposits will have a total carbon content of 6-12%. This means that the graphite flakes/crystals do not have enough contact to give the degree of conductivity that we have detected here. The only high Siemens reading graphite conductors that I know of have been secondarily sheared under high pressure, concentrating and forcing the graphite flakes into contact. There is also very rare pure crystalline graphite, or vein graphite, but that only occurs in Sri Lanka, and certainly not in 300 x 600 x 50m slabs.

A drilling update from Blue Star Helium today, including costs. Wells are 1000 - 1200 feet, costed at $300,000 each. This compares to our 1000 - 1200 metres, roughly three times the depth. I have no idea how drilling costs in Colorado, US, compare to Tanzania. Interesting announcement, shows their plans for this year include 13 wells to be permitted or drilled by end of Q1 22 and a further 33 for Q2, so by mid year a total of 47 wells (yes you read that correctly). Just shows what is possible once you get started....

https://www.bluestarhelium.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/61074196-2.pdf

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/972388/helium-in-price-squeeze-as-major-new-supplies-fail-to-materialise-972388.html

Mitchell Drilling are a highly respected drilling company, but their speciality is in mineral drilling, not oil & gas. They do not have O & G rigs. I suspect that the original decision was made on the fly, in the belief that the drilling depth was not nearly as far as most O & G reservoirs, so a small bore mineral rig would work for a low cost. With the benefit of hindsight, that was clearly the wrong decision.

HE1 now have a significantly enlarged team that includes O & G specialists, which rather oddly it did not last year. I think they have learned a lot from the mistakes, and that the problems were all engineering issues. not geological. With a proper specialist rig and team, guided by improved seismic integrated with what looks like fantastic MSS data, I am very confident that we will see a successful drilling campaign later this year.

I re-confirm my belief that serious partnering or sale discussions will not start until after a discovery.