Member Info for KeithOz

A POW / KAV merger wouldn't make sense. But a POW Botswana projects / KAV merger could have some upside from potential synergies.

This licence, that includes the 1.2 TCF Edge Prospect 18km east of Corrib, was originally owned by Faroe. When Faroe was taken over, DNO picked this up, and in June 2020 agreed to sell it to Europa. Announcement today that DNO are not selling it after all. Do they know something about FELs finally getting government approval to go ahead with development?

tk95 - you're obviously the expert, I suggest you give Ben a ring and offer to take over operations.

Others - Looks like the correct way to make an announcement to me. You tell people facts once you know them. Anything else is speculation and misleads the market. Once again KAV have sought 3rd party verification - very few other explorers do this, or follow such a methodical approach.

OK, Suggins, let me try! Because the apparent conductor cut across the surrounding sedimentary rocks, it was sensibly assumed to have been intruded from below, probably originating from an older deep structural fissure that also allowed the Proterozoic gabbro to come up from the mantle 1M+ years earlier. This was not certain, with various alternative possibilities being proposed on this board.
What we have now is confirmation that there is indeed a 75m thick intrusive body made up of the correct ultramafic rocks that are associated with NiCuPGE deposits. We also have confirmation that the 10cm path of the drill did not pass through an orebody, ie concentration of these minerals, but did pass very close to a very high conductance body that also displays a magnetic effect. The magnetism & conductance readings are consistent with pyrrhotite, which is a weakly magnetic iron sulphide which in these situations usually occurs together with chalcopyrite (Cu sulphide) and pentlandite (Ni and possibly Co sulphide). It would therefore appear that we have gone through the middle of a cluster of at least two orebodies which are hosted by the main sheet of gabbro. Further detailed TDEM & DHEM should come up with a clearer picture of exactly where the next boreholes need to go.
Undoubtedly the short term hot money will go elsewhere today, but to me this is further confirmation of the fabulous prospectivity of the GRS and the 30km magnetic tail.

A pictorial summary:
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342

While it would have nice to get some core dripping with valuable minerals, this result does actually further confirm the KAV KSZ hypothesis. We know we hit intrusive rock where predicted, and we know there is one very high conductance body close by. We also know there is at least a second - and elsewhere in the world these bodies occur in clusters.
I agree it is correct strategy to enlarge the scope of the electromagnetics, and come up with a more comprehensive picture.
Some may be a little disappointed - don't be! Exploration rarely goes as you expect, and certainly never as fast as you hope. We have all but confirmed the hypothesis, and by the end of the year should have a VERY attractive package of data.

Let's be honest here - PRD has a credibility problem. This is due to the events of last year, and their poor handling by the board & advisers. Most of us on this board are prepared to look past this recent history and concentrate on the potential value of the assets in Morocco & Ireland.

Ireland we can do very little about until the licences are fully issued - which may now be very soon, considering both world events and Ireland's domestic energy issues. Also remember that PG's company Theseus owns 50% of the licences, so PG in effect has 60% control of Ram Head & Corrib South. We PI's are not going to be consulted on Ireland. However, we should not rely on Ireland to buoy up the rest of the company, since the Irish government have the most remarkable ability to foul things up.

Morocco is the key immediate issue. It seems apparent that PG's (& my) preferred route of using the promise of MOU-1 to get a local business to fund further drilling has not worked, after several months of trying. Like most posters, I am concerned about financing drilling through debt, since this has a habit of going base over apex unless structured very carefully. A JV at this early stage will remove at least half of our upside in return for a cheap drilling campaign, very poor value. A carefully targeted placing seems the best route forward... UNLESS

...PRD get off their backsides and do what they have been promising for the last 8/9 months, which is to flow test MOU-1. If the logs and the CPR are proven to be as good as they seem, local businesses will be lining up to partner, since they will have seen PROOF of gas. Morocco has the largest deposits of phosphates in the world, vital for future food production. All you need to turn phosphates into fertilizer is natural gas - this is a no-brainer. So why the continuing delays, now that Covid restrictions have been lifted? This just gives rise to the thought that maybe MOU-1 is not as good as the logs & CPR suggest, or even that we don't have enough cash to pay for the testing, and it is these uncertainties that are holding back both the share price and potential partners.

My conclusion: grasp the nettle with both hands and test MOU-1 asap. If we have a lemon, we've lost money, move on. If we have a whole fruit bowl, this discussion thread is no longer relevant

Hoot sands, obviously.

Noob - the high rates of cancer are not just due to Chernobyl, but mostly to the reckless over use of dangerous pesticides at the insistence of the centrally planned economy of the USSR from the 1940's through to the 1980's. The Dneipr basin was forced to use intensive grain farming methods for decades, with no interest for the wellbeing of the inhabitants. The soil, and hence the water runoff, will still be poisoned for decades. This followed on from the millions of Ukrainian deaths from starvation in the 1930's caused by Stalin's collective farming policies. It is little wonder that Ukraine does not wish to be a subservient state of the new Soviet Union once again.

FKC - You're talking good sense. You've obviously seen that bag on the floor. The one that's moving - there's something trying to get out! Oh, look, I think it's the cat!

A positive announcement could actually be well received, bearing in mind that Russia produces 16% of the world's Nickel and 40% of the world's Palladium. Let's see what happens on Tuesday.

Zebra - you said: "How many Ukrainian citizens would agree this war is worth it to try join nato?" Wrong question - it should have been "How many Ukrainian citizens would agree this war is worth it to not to be back under Russian rule?"

I have lived and worked in Russia, have two daughters who are half Ukrainian, and have visited Ukraine (including Crimea, where their Babushka still lives but they are unable to visit) many times. I suspect I know a little more of the situation and the views of ordinary Ukrainians than you do.

Sorry everyone else, off topic rant, but I consider it my duty to counteract Putin propaganda..

Don't know how I missed this previously, but just found a bit of info from ONHYM about Med offshore, but nothing further about mysterious #187.

http://www.onhym.com/en/prospectivity-of-basins/regional-exploration/offshore/mediterranean.html

NewMed say they are looking at Atlantic and Mediterranean offshore licences. I must admit I didn't know there were any Mediterranean offshore licences. The ONHYM website makes reference to Neogene source rocks offshore Med, but these have a low organic carbon content: "Neogene (Oligocene and Miocene) marls and shales have TOC values of up to 7 % in the Atlantic basins and up to 2 % in the Mediterranean offshore area. This source rock produces biogenic gas but can yield oil where sufficiently buried." That doesn't sound too promising to me.

This is a link to the latest ONHYM licence map I can find, but it is about 15 years old:

http://www.onhym.com/images/Cartes/Domaine_minier%2005_06_2015.jpg Does anyone have a link to a more up to date map please?

The four Guercif licences are shown as XV - you will need to use the magnifying cursor. As we know, most of the licence areas to the west are now ConocoPhillips. I have been trying to find out who has rights to the licence directly north east of Guercif - licence no. 187, which is also known as Hassi-Burkane. This is the nearest licence to the Med coast. Up until about 2016 this was held by Maxim, but they appear to have relinquished it. The reason I am curious if it is available is because the 2015 Maxim CPR, by SLR, showed a prospect they named 'Top Dogger' which they estimated as containing 60MMbbl. This prospect is just a few km north of our licence boundary. I suspect that the geology is a continuation of the Guercif basin, albeit with less sediment depth.

If anyone has any information on this, or even just speculation, please post.

Article in today's FT predominantly focussed on energy, but mentions 40% of EU Pd and 17% of EU Ni comes from Russia, so it would be sensible to have an alternative supply. We just have to find it first .....

Androcles - correct, geologically a graben is a canyon formed by an elongated block subsiding between two parallel faults, then filling up with sediment - as for example the Rift Valley of E. Africa. The Guercif graben formed a conduit between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. It filled up with organic-rich sediments and subsided several kilometres, deep enough for a thermogenic kitchen, then very helpfully was uplifted so that the gas/oil was easier to get to. It is this history that makes the Guercif basin so highly prospective.

Bearing in mind that our company is rumoured to have some gas, and Putin is busy shooting himself in both feet, interesting article in today's FT about European usage of Russian gas. Overall, EU imports 38% of its gas from Russia. For Germany it is 65%, which given the size of its economy makes it the largest volume user. I find it interesting that the Baltic states, that feel most threatened by Russia, are high users of Russian gas - Latvia 100%, Estonia 46%, Lithuania 42%. Even Spain, Morocco's nearest neighbour and recipient of the Maghreb pipeline, imports over 10% of its gas from Russia.

It is difficult to know what sanctions will be applied to Russian energy - this is the main source of Putin's income, but also vital for keeping Europe functioning. However, this whole sorry episode may at least focus some attention on alternative energy supplies - for example Morocco & Ireland.

The 2013 ONHYM report mentioned by several posters is referring to oil shale. The Tarfaya & Timahdit deposits have been investigated since before WW2, with shale being mined from open pit, then steamed & squashed (please excuse my highly technical terminology) to extract oil. Despite a number of companies having been involved over the last 80 years, these deposits have not been shown to be commercial. The shales are different from those in the US, and as far as I am aware are not amenable to horizontal drilling & fraccing. These Western Moroccan shales are also sulphur-rich, with the (steamed & squashed) oil still containing around 2% sulphur, which makes them problematic for refining.

The oil likely to be on the Guercif licences is of a very different nature. For example, MOU-NE is a Jurassic carbonate reef. These formations worldwide are very often of very high permeability & porosity, and amenable to standard drilling techniques. I don't believe it is reasonable for us to be making projections of the potential quantity of PRD's oil based on oil shale at the other end of the country, formed under entirely different geological conditions.

I should state clearly that the chances of oil in the Guercif licences are very good. There is published data showing numerous surface oil seeps, and privately available hyperspectral data which I understand shows oil seepage around MOU-NE - perhaps those here who have personally seen this data could confirm. There is an enormous thickness of sediment within the Guercif graben, including Jurassic & Triassic (TAGI formation) - with the Neogene gas reservoirs we have quite literally only been scraping the surface. It is now acknowledged there is an excellent chance of a deep kitchen, with plenty of room for both gas and oil windows. The sooner PRD can get on with drilling MOU-NE, the sooner speculation will become reality.

BCB: No. K

Yeah, I saw him in the mirror this morning. Been out in the wilds for a week with very limited internet connection. Strange people & conversations on the Predator board, I was translating some Arabic for them which I assumed to be related to well flow testing in Morocco, it turned out to be concerned with transporting sheep from Morocco to a Cardiff brothel. I'm not getting involved with them again :-)

My take on things Kavango? I stated my views on possibilities for drilling & JV here a week ago, those views have not changed. I see there has been endless speculation that covers every possible eventuality, little point in adding anything, since it is just that - speculation. One thing that I will comment on - a number of people have been very critical of Ben for not providing a day-by-day account of goings on. This is unfair - clearly he is unable to provide an update at the moment, since he usually has difficulty keeping quiet this must be even harder for him than for shareholders. I guess all will become clear by the end of the month, for now we just need to relax and concentrate on the wise words of His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama - I recently retweeted this "We live in hope, hope that something good will happen. As human beings we must be realistic and use our intelligence to look at things from different angles in order to see a more complete picture, but it is more constructive to remain hopeful than to become pessimistic."