Member Info for KeithOz

A few of the posts in the last 24hrs have been critical of the way some individuals have offered some 'crumbs' to the board. I had hoped that my post starting this thread would throw some light as to why this information was presented elliptically, and not in 48pt Bold. In particular, GRH has been singled out. I have never met Graham, and have only communicated with him through this board and the occasional re-tweet of each other's posts on Twitter. As well as sharing a belief in PRD's potential, we also have in common the use of our actual names and verifiable identities on social media, the latter is not a usual feature on this or any other BB, and indicates we have a degree of belief in the views we express.

GRH does indeed make frequent references to his past experience with O & G companies - for a very good reason - he is making a strong hint. I am going to go right out on a limb here, and offer my translation and consolidation of a number of his recent posts. Normal caveat - I might be completely wrong and misrepresenting what he actually thinks!

He could have said:
* In 2011 I was in at the start of using HSSI for identifying oil & gas micro seepages, thus giving an additional level of confidence for drill location.
* My colleagues & I correctly identified exactly where to drill Shaikan, they drilled in the right places, and we made a lot of money by backing our conviction with share purchases.
* We did the same for Sound, but they didn't listen, so we sold out before they screwed up.
* We have seen a similar positive pattern for the Guercif licences, but for commercial reasons and following normal standards of decency do not wish to state this explicitly, so have bought lots of shares in expectation of very positive results"

If he is comparing Guercif favourably to Shaikan (1040 million Bbl) and Leviathon (990 billion m³ = 35 trillion ft³), then it might be worth your while taking note of that, rather than attempting a character assassination. Apologies if I have upset anyone.

pt 2, sorry posted by accident before completing

Testing MOU-1, -4 & -5 - Minimum of 1 week each, but if a 30-day flow test is run, that will move it to 14 weeks total if done consecutively, or at least 6 weeks if done in parallel.

That gives us an absolute minimum of 12 weeks, and 18 or 24 depending on flow testing. That of course is dependant upon a funding agreement happening immediately, and the drill being available at exactly the right time. I suspect that even with a following wind the process will extend towards the end of Q3 2022, by which time a drill location for MOU-NE may have been finalised, allowing this to be stitched on to the end of the MOU Fan campaign.

One thing you can be certain of - exploration always takes longer than expected.

Razorman has suggested that everything may be complete within 100 days (about 14 weeks). I think that may be pushing it. I assume that the timetable in the January update no longer applies, particularly since no schedule was mentioned in the 8th March RNS.
We know that long lead time items are being accumulated and dill pads prepared ready go as soon as exploration partner funding is available, but we don't know when Day 1 is -when the partner is on board.

If we ASSUME Day 1 is today, we will need:

2 x Pad preparation - 4 weeks total
If we ASSUME the drill and crew are available
MOU-5, then move to MOU-4 - 5 weeks total

Kasjnaton: "KeithOz's statement that the hyper-spectral images of NE Morocco are not publicly available is not true, indeed an image of a prospect within the Tendrara licence area can be seen but it has been anonymised in order to give it no exploration value."
I made the statement that "HSSI for NE Morocco is not publicly available" in good faith, after personal research and talking with an imaging provider. If an image of one prospect has been published but has been 'anonymised', how could I know what/where it is? I do not see any such image in the article linked by Harrykrishna. Could you please provide a direct link to this image, I would very much like to see what level of detail is available. Thanks, Keith

Part 2.
* My take is that both MOU-NE & NW are very large prospects – each in excess of 100km². Gas & oil seeps have been detected for both. Current seismic is either old or of inadequate coverage. Oil was recovered in 1924 from NW at around 2000 B/d, but ran into technical problems related to water flooding – presumably modern techniques could get round this, but at this point no one actually knows. See:
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1504653923541393408 for how it used to be done!

* From the last RNS it would seem that rock of the same lithology as the assumed NE reservoir has been recovered from historical drill core, and found to have high porosity due to secondary mineral dissolution – a very positive sign, this was seen at Shaikan: see p.12 of this rather long presentation for a photo: http://files.investis.com/gulfkeystone/presentations/kurdistan.pdf

* I think that based on the available evidence, the Guercif licences are highly prospective, but a lot more work needs to be done. Some of the more optimistic forecasts on here may prove to be correct, but will take a lot of time, money and drilling. I am also sure that there will soon be more than enough data to interest a partner with deep enough pockets.

Sorry if this was a bit long-winded :-)

Part 1.
A number of posters have complained about some other posters apparently having access to information that is not available publicly, particularly with reference to MOU-NE & MOU-NW. There are also comments about 'a trail of breadcrumbs', when the view is that full factual information should be made freely available. I do not think that this is due to people behaving deviously, but for several reasons:

Information is not readily available in one reference source, but spread over many, often obscure, documents. I have a large number of references and papers relevant to the prospectivity of the Guercif licences – much of this is difficult to understand, and very often out of date with regard to both terminology used, and prospecting methodology used. As an example, I had to search back to the 1930's to find info on what we now call MOU-NW.
Although some drilling was done on our licences in the 1970s, proper logs are not publicly available. The two CPRs provide a tantalising summary, but not the fine detail that would normally be available to investors and analysts.
I understand that either hyper- or multi-spectral satellite imaging has been done for the NE of Morocco, that includes both PRD & Sound licences. This data is not publicly available, and commercially sensitive. I also suspect that at least two regular posters here with industry connections have had sight of this data, but are unable to either admit that or divulge the content. I have not seen this, but understand it is very positive for both gas and oil.
In 1999, a few months after Mohamed VI came to the throne, he went on national television to announce that a company called Lone Star Energy had made a hydrocarbon find that would ensure that Morocco was energy self-sufficient for 30 years. Shortly afterwards, this was discovered to be untrue and possibly fraudulent. One thing you must not do in Morocco is lose face, and this was extremely embarrassing for the new king.
In 2016, James Parsons, CEO of Sound Energy announced this:
“I believe Tendrara, Meridja and the Eastern Morocco TAGI (Trias Argilo-Gréseux Inférieur reservoir) play have the potential to be a material hydrocarbon province on a regional scale and therefore to transform both Sound Energy and the Moroccan gas industry.” Nothing happened until 8 years later - a gas sales agreement has now been signed, but still not implemented. The King was not happy at the fanfare, which again did not meet expectations.
Hardly surprising then that PRD's announcements have been brief, technical, and rather underselling the projects, and contain multiple use of the phrase “pending partner (ONHYM- read the King) approval.

OilBarrel., can't work out why you're still showing up when I filtered you for constant posting of accusatory nonsense. However, last year you said "Short term movement is a mere pin prick in this massive story". Then a bit later "Just sold everything. Lost all faith in management and it’s now way past my risk tolerance threshold." Before I re-filter you, could you perhaps tell us if you are, or are not, still invested in PRD, and why. Thanks.

Now have had time to read all this stuff.

1. This placing is to pay for long lead time items, in order to minimise further delays.
2. It puts us in a stronger position for negotiating with potential partners - if you have no money, you get screwed.
3. I expect a JV to be announced next quarter that enables multiple drills in 2022 - I note that the allocation of funds in the RNS does not make any reference to actual drilling costs, which appear to be currently unfunded.
4. MOU-NE: "with potential for leached porosity development covering potentially up to 100 sq. km." Leached porosity generally occurs due to CO2 dissolved in percolating ground water, which dissolves minerals from the rock, leaving spaces. It is unusual because you need a large amount of dissolved CO2, which comes from kerogens. So if you do see leached porosity, that is an indication of lots of hydrocarbons nearby. That may well mean vugs, giving rise to a high hydrocarbon charge. As for 100km², do I need to say anything?

Razorman - with regard to your question on confidentiality agreements, may I make a couple of points?

A Confidentiality (or Secrecy) Agreement is just what it says on the tin - one party agrees to release business-sensitive information to another party, for a specified purpose such as appraising the data with the intention of moving towards a formal contract should the data prove sufficiently attractive. Such data would not already be in the public domain, for example hyperspectral satellite imaging for the Guercif licences. Since the existence of such an agreement is highly provisional, it would not be expected to be price-sensitive, therefore need not be released to the market. It is not at all unusual for even a small company to have several Confidentiality Agreements in place at the same time, concerning the same data, but obviously with different evaluating companies.

If the Agreement was offering an exclusive option period for review of data or for negotiation, that would be classed as an Exclusivity or Option Agreement, which would normally be required to be released to market. Such an Option Agreement would usually include an option fee (cash or financing of a third-party review of data, etc) in return for exclusivity. I would expect any agreement regarding exclusive rights to review MOU-1 data which has yet to be generated to fall into this category, ie the agreements mentioned in the 8th March RNS do not include this.

Should both parties wish to move ahead with negotiations, it would be usual before a definitive contract is signed to inform the market of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the parties, that summarise the main heads of agreement, and would be subject to normal due diligence, any necessary official approvals, etc. If everything goes to plan, this would result in a binding legal contract.

Unlike some here, I can't get too excited about a Confidentiality Agreement, since I have been party to literally hundreds during my career, and the large majority of discussions do not proceed beyond this stage. You can get a bit more excited once a MOU has been released, since this indicates that the purchasing party believes the asset is of value, and the vendor believes the compensation offered is worth it - also, both sides will believe the deal is able to be closed.

RNS today from Scirocco, who still hold 1%, noting yesterday's RNS from HE1:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SCIR/helium-one-update/15367800

CEO Tom Reynolds said "It is pleasing to note that Helium One continues to make strong progress, with positive indications coming from the 2D Seismic interpretation which will enhance the portfolio of drill-ready targets. Scirocco successfully monetised the majority of its investment in He1 last year at a significant premium to the current share price, but retains meaningful exposure to its ongoing progress through our remaining holding, meaning the upcoming drilling plans at Rukwa represent a good value catalyst for Scirocco within our diversified portfolio of assets. We will continue to monitor the progress of this investment with a view to monetising the remaining value at the appropriate time."

Morocco is often thought of as being a desert country, but much of it is highly fertile, with a mild Mediterranean climate. A third of the population is employed in agriculture - Guercif is famous for its olives. For agriculture to be successful, fertiliser is needed. Here Morocco is blessed with the world's largest deposit of phosphates. But to turn phosphates into fertiliser, gas is required - a lot of gas. Hence the problem Morocco faces in the need to import gas at ever higher prices, as outlined in the article helpfully linked by PrivateTesla.

As well as potentially having a large supply of indigenous gas, there is a hidden factor helping us. King Mohamed VI has very large personal investments in the agricultural and fertiliser sectors. Success in these investments isn't just financial - it ensures large scale employment and social stability. The new Coalition government elected at the end of last year has put increasing employment and social programmes at the top of the 2022 budget. Hardly surprising that the country is making energy security a priority.

So if you no longer hold this share, what are you commenting? Is it out of the goodness of your heart to stop us naive innocents from being ripped off my CEOs sleeping on tents in the Tanzanian desert? Or are you perhaps trying to talk the price down so you can get in cheaper ahead of the inevitable rise later this year? Small fish indeed.

Hi Invfun, welcome to the board. May I clarify the licence situation? In Morocco, licences are already granted for any kind of hydrocarbon, and PRD has established initial gas Contingent Resources, with plenty more to come, plus the likelihood of future oil discoveries. In Ireland, there is not likely to be much oil, but Licence Options have already been granted on two gas fields - PRD is waiting for the conversion to Frontier Exploration Licences, which is their legal right. The FELs have been held up for two or three years solely due to misguided Irish political wrangling. It is hoped that the current dire European gas situation will now expedite the issuing of FELs. All the best if you decide to invest.

I am surprised that there has not been more comment today on this issue. Lonny highlighted the huge jump in share prices for Lansdowne & Providence, and Fab Phil linked to the interview on RedFM:

Michael McGrath, Minister for Public Expenditure & Financial Reform, said during the interview:

"There is no prohibition on existing licences being used and bring these products to market"
then
"Particularly when it comes to gas, we continue to need gas in our country as a transition fuel, but also as a back-up fuel. We get about 30% of our supply currently from the Corrib, the rest of it is imported from the UK in particular, Scotland and Norway"

I cannot imagine that even the current coalition party, including Greens, can avoid the conclusions of the EU plans published this week regarding self-sufficiency of gas supply and storage. How can they possibly justify any further delay to conversion of PRD's Licencing Options into Frontier Exploration Licences? The market clearly thought it significant that Minister McGrath said in the interview that he is meeting with Providence shortly, to review their plans.

Hopefully this gets sorted out at the National Energy Summit next month.

BCB - I made a similar suggestion on March 2nd.
I don't see the logic of a Kanye containing a Ni project, a Cu project, a REE project and an Au project. The only synergy is they are all in Botswana.
But there are possible variations, each with their own potential synergies:
1. All Copper projects held in one company - maybe Kanye
2. All Nickel projects held in one company - a slimmed-down KAV with just KSZ, Molopo, Ditau
3. All KAV and POW Botswana projects held in one company - a bigger KAV

Just idle speculation!

If you visit the Atlantic coast of Morocco, you will immediately notice two things: the wind is so strong it is difficult to stand up, and your skin starts to burn from the sun after about 10 minutes. So plenty of renewable energy for making green hydrogen, we can sell all the gas.

Lots of negative sentiment being expressed here, I understand that some people are disappointed that a definitive discovery is taking longer than they had hoped. Yesterday Worzel posted a lengthy review of the iterative process that is involved in mineral exploration - he sums it up nicely. Kavango is unusual in communicating frequently and in great detail what they are up to - most exploration companies will only provide a single RNS after a drilling campaign is finished and assays are returned. We have been spoiled, and a short hiatus in communications (which was justified imho) has resulted in a spoilt brat reaction by some.

Let's just step back for a minute and look at what three recent RNSs have told us.

28th February. We have the clearest picture yet of potential mineralisation in the Karoo gabbro - and it appears to be conforming to the Noril'sk-Talnakh model that was originally proposed, with a vertical feeder dyke and high conductance sulphide deposit in the keel. We have not seen this sort of detail previously. The market does not seem to have understood this.

9th March. Further TDEM and DHEM will be deployed in a way that provides the best views of each of these two potential targets, so that drilling can be as accurate as possible. The market does not seem to have understood this.

3rd March. Initial petrology report on the two holes drilled into the Proterozoic gabbro. This showed that there are two distinct styles of mineralisation, both prospective for NiCu, possibly also Co & PGEs. 6 months ago, we were focussed on the Karoo gabbro only. Now we have double the opportunity, with multiple extensive prospective systems. The market does not seem to have understood this either.

The turnover of shares in the last fortnight has been minuscule, despite resulting in a sharp drop in the share price. Imagine what would happen if a significant discovery is made, and literally hundreds of new buyers are plunging in. Kavango seems to be on the cusp of demonstrating (or not, let's be balanced) the presence of a Noril'sk-Talnakh type system at the KSZ. Suppose there is one - before the crazy rises in the price of Nickel & Palladium this week, Noril'sk was valued at $1.4Tn. Let me write that out: $1,400,000,000,000. We have 410M shares in issue.

That's why I am invested here. The market does not seem to have understood ANY of this.

...and no, I haven't even touched on Ditau, KCB, Molopo. The market does not seem to understand them either.

Oh and here's some more interesting ancient info, from Dunstan's 1938 Science of Petrology, p. 186

North Africa. Seepages are known in the Earache district of Spanish Morocco, and are common in the triangular region, mainly in French Morocco, formed by Earache, Tizeroutine, and Meknes [1,1932] ...... In 1934 a well on the broken, elevated Djebcl Tselfat structure gave 250 tons of oil per day, but further work has shown the productive area to be limited to 120 acres, and to be partly water-flooded. The productive horizon is a Triassic limestone which appears to be or to have been oil-bearing over an area of at least 16 miles by 12 miles. Research has largely eliminated the possibilities of much oil in beds younger than the Jurassic, and efforts are being concentrated on finding Triassic limestones or older beds under suitably sealed conditions. The types of structure under investigation include folds with the Domerian crest near the surface; deeper crests beyond the frontal faults, and Triassic structures beneath discordant Cretaceous beds. The last group is of considerable importance, for this concealed condition obtains in about three-quarters of the suitable area in northern Morocco."

240T/d is about 1800 B/d. 16 x 12 miles??? Would certainly seem to deserve some further modern investigation.

I've had time for a little more research. MOU-NW may be new to us, but it's certainly not new! From The Institute of Petroleum, Journal 1936: Vol 22, p 239:
"At Tizeroutine, in Taza, a seepage of very light oil occurs in a complex of Eocene—Cretaceous folds, and geological studies and some shallow drilling have been accomplished. One well has reached a depth of 700 m., but the work is now suspended. The first real encouragement was obtained when the well “ Tselfat 26°’ gushed in 1926."

I like "light oil", and particularly like "gushed" ! Hopefully it was plugged, so oil still remains 96 years later.

As a change from speculation & criticism, this might be a helpful graphic to explain what KAV are doing next with TDEM at the B1 target area:

https://twitter.com/KavangoRes/status/1460191960510173184/photo/1

You will remember those far-off school science experiments using a magnet & iron filings to show the shape of a magnetic field. TDEM produces a similar field. By using the loop in different positions, it is possible to get the field at right angles to a suspected target, so that it is well-coupled, and better reveals the size, shape and orientation of the target.
Alternatively, you can position the loop so that the magnetic field is parallel to the suspected target, so it is null-coupled, and it will not show up.
B1 is now believed to be two different targets, aligned at different angles. So by using two different TDEM loop orientations, it should be possible to isolate each target separately, and thus get a clearer picture of where to drill.