Member Info for KeithOz

cut me off - "because Putin has been throwing his nukes around"

Was not getting up at 4.00 am just to watch! Have now had a chance to have a look - some points of interest:

TDEM is a relatively new technique that needs calibrating to different environments. KAV have now been able to re-interpret the initial TDEM, by comparing with DHEM and actual drill core – so upgrades a 2D image to 3D. Going forward they will use a recalibrated, double loop TDEM that will give them a much more accurate idea of what is sub-surface.
15 TDEMs upcoming to cover the whole of the GRS, plus lots more on the northern section of the KSZ, plus some for the first time on the southern KSZ.
The Proterozoic gabbros are believed to be closer to the surface at the southern end of the KSZ, so more amenable to exploration.
Confirmation that the B1 conductor is actually two – horizontal @ S16k, plus a weaker vertical. I'm personally happier about this, since this fits much better with the feeder zone/ sill deposit model that was generated previously – the single cross-formational model did not quite fit the original theory.
A comprehensive updated model of the KSZ will be released shortly, incorporating improved magnetic inversion models and taking into account TDEM, DHEM, AMT, petrology and assays of cores. Better than releasing individual results, which don't provide a clear pointer to what is subsurface.
This, together with the new TDEMs referred to above, will form the basis of a partner-ready package, Although KAV do have CDAs in place with some majors, at this stage they are looking at individual project JVs potentially with more than one smaller partner. Ben is looking for a partner to refund a proportion of historical exploration costs.
(Just my own speculation – partners will need to have lots of cash already, or be cash-generative, in order to fund lots of boreholes. Possibilities are something like Blujay have done with Kobold on the Disko NiCuPGE project in Greenland, with Sandfire, who have just started magmatic NiCu exploration in Botswana, or even some kind of financial input from Govt of Botswana.) Still working on a JV with Mendea.
Confirmation of two distinct mineralisation types – the Karoo keel/wing NiCuPGE we are well familiar with, plus an as yet unnamed style at the GRS. Ben is trying very hard not to say IOCG (other companies would be making a lot of noise about this), but he did let slip that the GRS was Cu, but with no mention of Ni or PGE. Draw your own conclusions as to what all that magnetite was about (magnetite is of course an iron oxide, so we now have the IOC bit, just need fire assays to confirm the G :-)
After Ditau (July?) the DD rig will move either to B1 if all the new survey work is complete, or else possibly to the southern end of the KSZ, to have a prod at the near-surface Proterozoic.
Final target id at the KCB, RC drilling due to start July?

My overall conclusion - if by this time next year KAV has a market cap of less than £100M, it is because Putin has been throwing his nu

Since we are not getting any RNS's until the fat lady sings, here's my take:
It says "core ... on the way down to the target zone". The one and a third cores in the tray nearer to the geo are sandy in colour, like I would expect the overlying Kalahari cover to be. So they would indeed be 'on the way down'. Then there appears to be a disconformity, with the remaining four and two thirds cores looking very white to me, rather like it was composed of calcite/dolomite, in fact looks just like marble, or of course just like carbonatite :-). The other three cores visible in the nearer tray are also presumably carbonatite. A step in the right direction.

MEM - imo opinion the market cap is way below what it should be, assuming the CPR is reasonably accurate, and that the Novum report is correct in its interpretations. The main reason for this would appear to be the lack of progress. On 23 September 2021 we were presented with a series of upcoming events and lots of reasons to be cheerful. By 15th December those timelines had slipped by 3 months, but we received a nice Powerpoint timetable:
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/schedule.pdf

According to that, we should already have completed MOU-1 testing, and be starting to drill MOU-4 & 5 nest week.
So timelines appear to have slipped by a further 3 months, and in my post earlier today I detailed how there are still major question marks over what the schedule actually is.

So, not at all surprising that the more nervous folks are selling out or reducing, and I am not criticising that strategy since it is an individual's choice as to their level of risk. I have not sold anything for a simple reason - if there is a placing, and I have no problems if there is, I do not necessarily see the share price dropping. The relief that 2-3 wells are fully funded, and all those juicy BCF in the CPR can now be accessed, is likely to make the share price rise by more than any dilution due to a discounted placing. In this scenario, you will not be able to buy back a higher number of shares than you originally held.

The low market cap is due to negative sentiment - if that is reversed by a placing, I expect to see an immediate positive response.

From P1 of the 7th March Novum report (my capitals):

"Predator completed the drilling of the MOU-1 exploration well to test the western part of
the MOU-4 Tertiary prospect on the Guercif Licence (PRD: 75%) in July 2021. Although an
over-pressured reservoir prevented flow testing at the time, the company’s priority is now to
perform A RIGLESS TEST IN H1 2022 for which the company is fully funded, SUBJECT TO ITS PARTNER
ONHYM’s APPROVAL"
Why does ONHYM need to approve something that has been planned for over 9 months, and is fully financed?

and

"The company favours a two well back-to-back drilling programme comprising the MOU-4
and MOU-5 appraisal wells in order to maximise early exposure to potential gas resources.
As ONHYM is carried through the exploration and appraisal phase, we anticipate that
Predator COULD RECEIVE APPROVAL TO DRILL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS."

Does this mean that there are additional delaying factors, not just financing, or does it mean that ONHYM just need to approve the financing arrangements? Could drilling not be approved until September?

O/T
...and good morning to you Taff, hope you're starting this week feeling a lot better than the previous one. We don't have pine trees here, maybe we can use the new UK-Australia trade agreement to swap your pines for some for some of our gum trees - inhaling eucalyptus might help with your breathing.

Josh - Obviously at this stage none of us know the individual numbers necessary to do the sums with any degree of accuracy, but your conclusions are correct that whatever you use, here is a very big opportunity. I have previously done similar calculations that I have dropped in to a standard NPV spreadsheet, discounted at 10% since this is Tanzania and interest rates are starting to rise. The risk percentages that were applied to the original CPR are in my opinion now very outdated, since Rukwa has been greatly de-risked. Commercial discovery this year, especially if at more than one type of trapping site, will remove most of the remaining risk.

With a spreadsheet start date of Jan 2023, my conclusion is that a fair 10-year net present value post-discovery will range from $10 to $50 billion. This suggests that a successful drill campaign this year will result in a logarithmic rerating from the current $80M (£63M) market cap.

I

Valuation quite possible, but unlikely this year. As they say, a long-term opportunity is a short-term one that has been delayed.

Morocco: We are already one third of the way through the year, and have yet to see any details of proposed financing, finalisation of approval to drill, or ONHYM approval of forward plans. While I am confident all these issues will be sorted out over time, clearly things are moving more slowly than the timelines stated in the September presentations. Whatever, the geology isn't going to change, and that is why I am here.

T&T: I have absolutely no idea what is going on.

Ireland: Entirely in the hands of the Irish government, who clearly are from a different planet to the rest of us. There is the old story of the Irish teacher asked by one of his students the meaning of mañana, who replied "well in Ireland we don't have an expression that conveys the same sense of urgency".

Quite rightly, lse has put asterisks instead of the website, but you all know the organisation headed by Tom W, he who is so good at recommending small company shares that he had two small company funds managed by him go bust.

It is a little insulting to investors here and elsewhere to think that they will not realise that 'TheProphet2000' 'Shareprophet2000' 'Pro-S2000' and the dubious pumping organisation '*************' are one and the same.

Who the hell is Regeneron? That's not what I typed???

InvestingGoals - I've had a look at the Renergen link you helpfully provided. Page 5 says "END USER large scale agreements range from $400 to $500/MCF." My capitals. Does not say anywhere what price Regeneron are actually selling at and to whom. Other He companies are phrasing things the same way - clever use of wording implies they are getting this high quoted price. That is the hype designed to help them find nearly a $ billion for capital expenditure. Reality is different.

Josh - In my capacity as a Trustee to an Australian superannuation fund, I have had a detailed conversation with a leading Helium consultant. I respect his wish to maintain confidentiality on several points, but with regard to pricing he is adamant on three issues - 1. the current contract wholesale He price (at which it is bought in bulk from He producers) is $225 +/- 10% , and likely to remain at that level for the rest of the year. 2. Only around 5% of He is purchased at spot price, i.e. not by contract, and it is the spot price that is very volatile - obviously suppliers will meet contractual obligations first, what is left over, the tiddlers will have to fight for. 3. The high (spot) prices being waved around by certain He producers are illusory - since little or no gas will actually be sold by them at those prices - but it makes for a good promotional story, especially if they are about to raise capital.

I have been involved in the Helium market for several years - initially through investing in Solo, who had a stake in pre-listing HE1, then Attis. As well as HE1, I also have an investment in an ASX-listed company currently drilling in the US (Blue Star). Similarly, I have followed this guy for a couple of years, his research is pretty accurate. I would rather believe his independent view rather than the marketing spiel of an He wannabee producer.

I will add to that my own layer of opinion - if you are an He producer in the US, you may well be able to find a nearby end user to whom you can sell some (emphasis on some) of your production. I just don't see that happening in remote Tanzania.

$225/MCF is fine for HE1 - just look at the margin, and as I have suggested previously, a new post-discovery CPR by the end of this year could well show 500BCF.

This also came through on my Twitter feed. But the #Tanzania bit is over two months old. Today's Tweet/Linkedin entry only has these hashtags: #drilling #helium #wellengineering #africa #greenenergy.

The global natural gas crisis is coming to North America: (very long link as usual)

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-global-natural-gas-crisis-is-coming-to-north-america?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=210718411&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--tronoqHWYWb9sgbVQ7C-KtP9ke4FXsMjk0RkBMY0cctgztr9-cPw0e21b69ccQ5w07LJEqPCnQ-29wqsoypVuRb04nw&utm_content=210718411&utm_source=hs_email

Wacky - I don't think the Star Valley 101 rig itself was the problem, unable to cope with the overpressure, since PRD are using it again to drill the same formations, but deeper. I recall PG saying that among the long lead time items they were securing were high pressure wellheads (plural), so that may be where the problem lies.
I had forgotten that 'wet gas' reference slipped in to the conversation, it is certainly interesting. What is for sure is that the depth of sediment in the Guercif graben and its burial/uplift history will allow for both gas & oil windows - where and how deep remain to be seen. As MEM says, show us the money, we'll show you the hydrocarbons!

It seems I may need to ask the same questions about gas clouds/chimneys again, but in a little more technical detail (apologies to most!). Sorry to labour the point, but the answers could have a huge effect on the valuation of the Guercif licence area.

First, I do know what a cloud/chimney is, and its significance. The video that was kindly posted is a bit too simplistic for the MOU situation - gas clouds can be found directly above reservoirs, as shown in the video, but can also be related to leakage via faults, as I suspect is the case for the cloud detected on 2D seismic on the eastern flank of the MOU fan. Importantly, they can be associated with both oil or gas reservoirs. The area within and directly below a gas cloud can be very difficult to interpret on seismic, particularly if only 2D, since the seismic reflections are broken up in a chaotic manner - this is in fact the main diagnostic indicator of a gas cloud.

So my questions specific to the MOU fan are:

Is there any actual significance, as suggested on this board yesterday, of similarities in composition between an oil-derived gas cloud as at EME's Jade, and what we have always been told are formation gas shows at MOU-1? Is it now being suggested that what was drilled at MOU-1 is not formation gas, but a cloud rising from an (oil? gas?) reservoir below? If so, would that be the real reason that MOU-1 has not been flow tested? - a gas cloud would not itself be economic, but the originating reservoir beneath, not yet drilled, almost certainly will be. To me, this proposition seems unlikely - I have never heard of an overpressured gas cloud, but would be happy to be corrected!

Bearing in mind the difficulty of seismic interpretation beneath a gas cloud, does anyone have any additional information to suggest whether the originating reservoir(s) for the cloud seen to the eastern flank of the MOU fan are gas, oil, or both? It looks to me that there could be two separate reservoirs feeding the cloud. On 17th March we learned that there are newly-detected shallower gas reservoirs at MOU-5, in addition to the original MOU-fan target, but it was not confirmed whether the main MOU target is believed to be dry gas, condensate-rich or even oil. We were also not told to what depth MOU-5 would be drilled - page 9 of the Sept 28th presentation indicated a lower reservoir (MOU Deep) with up to 879 BCF. In particular, is there an oil signature on the HSSI over the MOU fan?

Finally, did anyone notice on p12 of the September 28th presentation the statement with regard to MOU-NE?
"Base Jurassic carbonate bank. Compare prolific Zelten reservoirs Libya formed over basement highs."
fyi, Zelten holds 2.5 Bn barrels of oil.

Since this is a competition: 1 ECO share = 1 barrel of oil = 1 Bitcoin by end 2023 :-)

I didn't have the time to go through all this until this morning (my time), but would welcome some clarification. My reading of the EME announcement is that their seismic data had previously identified a gas cloud/chimney above a deeper oil reservoir at the Jade prospect. This is a very good, since gas clouds are highly prognostic of economic prospects. So far they have only drilled through the gas cloud, and have not reached the reservoir. The data presented was therefore cloud readings, not reservoir. The EME cloud data are very similar to the MOU-1 readings.

Is the suggestion here today that the MOU-1 data relate to a gas cloud, presumably above a deeper oil reservoir (Lower Hoot sands? Older & deeper - Triassic?) rather than PRD having hit an actual gas reservoir? I assume this is unlikely, since a gas cloud would not be over-pressured, and the only gas cloud I have seen on PRD seismic is at the eastern margin of the MOU-fan, MOU-1 is well to the west.

Or is the suggestion that the whole MOU-fan area including MOU-1 is a like an inverted waterfall, with a gas cloud (to the E.), over a spill (the fan structure itself), over a filled and spilling oil prospect (Jurassic/Triassic)? Is it anticipated that at the currently planned depths MOU-4 & -5 will be liquids-rich, or even contain oil? Has someone here (looking at you Graham) seen oil as well as gas signatures in the hyperspectral data above the MOU-fan?

To get London Stock Exchange notifications you need to open a free account, requires only name & email, they won't spam you:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/user/registration.html?execution=e1s1

Once set up, you can then use the various useful account features:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/my-account?tab=tools

The tools section allows you to create a real-time portfolio, set up email alerts for RNS's and price movements for your whole portfolio or individual stocks. There is a 15 minute lag on prices, and a few minutes delay on RNS notifications, but this is better than other providers, who merely relay this original data. For example, I checked the RNS's manually at 07.00 yesterday, and picked up the POW announcement. The KAV announcement was published at 07.03 by the exchange, but I didn't get an email notification until 07.06. It appeared much later on lse.co.uk.

This is an excellent free service, very useful if you are on the move, or if like me you are on a 9 or 10 hour time difference. Hope this helps, Keith

Oh, it came out a few minutes later.