Member Info for KeithOz

Interesting comment re. DITDD004 from Ben at 1m 36s on this Market Bull video:
"We've got some very interesting core that we managed to extract from one of the holes, that we think could be turning into a precious metals target".
I don't recall that being mentioned by KAV before. I have previously speculated here about three possibilities -
* that the 'intriguing' core is similar to one I have seen that contained Carlin-type finely disseminated gold in the pyrite,
* that the coincident magnetic and gravity anomalies at I10 are similar to those at the GRS - perhaps another smaller IOCG, this one haematite, rather than magnetite, based.
* a little more speculative is that the apparent layering of mafic & ultramafic rocks is similar to that seen in the Bushveld Complex, which is the world's largest source of Platinum.
Any of those possibilities is OK by me!

Well done, Mick, 100% correct. GRH's famous Shaikan exhibited leached porosity - I previously posted this presentation that on p.12 shows a very interesting photo of vuggy carbonates:

https://files.investis.com/gulfkeystone/presentations/kurdistan.pdf

DD13: Your point 3 - "I assume you case as you go along?" In order to case, you need to withdraw the drill string, then drop casing, then re-enter with a smaller diameter bit. The casing has the effect of reducing the bore diameter, so you are very limited with an NQ or PQ mineral rig as to how many times you can do this.

Because they were using an inadequate rig, they needed to drill slowly. This has the effect of the drilling mud being in contact with potential washout zones for longer, hence the problems they encountered. DM has said they are using an 8½" O & G rig this time, which not only enables faster drilling, but also with lower pressure mud and potentially more opportunities to case.

Jonmo91. I wasn't talking about takeover activity either, I was talking about voluntary suspension while deals of any kind are being finalised. Why don't you read what has been written before replying?

Ho hum. Let's try one last time. If a listed company is undertaking a deal which is likely to be of a transformational nature, it may take a while to finalise all the details, and it may require shareholder approval - hence the issue of a circular. The scale of the deal may in effect be a reverse takeover, which will definitely result in suspension. While all the details are being sorted out, the company would request suspension so that people are not trading on the basis of incomplete information, which could result in a disorderly market.

As an example of what could happen, you may wish to take a look at the history of Savannah Energy (SAVE:LSE), since that is also an O & G African-operating E & P company.

2nd June 2021: RNS - discussions with Exxon re acquiring assets in Chad & Cameroon. Suspension from trading.
13th December 2021: RNS - deal signed.
31st December 2021; RNS - shareholder circular & admission document published, restoration of trading.

The same company went through a lengthy voluntary suspension in 2019/2020 while it was sorting out the very complex assets acquired from Severn Energy, some of which were sold on.

So, this does happen, and for very good reasons. It may happen with PRD, if so, it is likely to be before the end of July - I am assuming that since 12th May announcement, PRD have finalised proposals to the selected partners, and the 60-day period should have started around now.

Thank you aktonet - but it was actually a rhetorical question.

A statement this morning from Evrima (AQSE:EVA), an investment company holding stakes in mostly Nickel projects in Botswana, including Kalahari Key and hence Molopo Farms.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/update-on-investee-company/15469573

They justify retaining their holdings in Kalahari Key:
"The original model that the founders were most excited by surrounded the potential to discover a feeder-styled deposit. The presence of that model has yet to be determined and if were to be would carry considerable value to the Company’s equity interest in Kalahari Key." (their grammar & spelling, not mine).
Hmm, feeder-style deposits. Who else has them?

And the founders? "The two founders not only remain shareholders of Evrima but are Directors of Evrima investee, Eastport Ventures Inc. (Botswana), one a geologist and one a geophysicist with a combined >80 years’ experience in the sector."

I still think there is some commercial sense for a Botswana focussed resources company that encompasses all the Botswana projects of KAV, POW & EVA.

Dai - Despite asking, I have been unable to get hold of SLK's detailed risking methodology in the original CPR, but yes, they apply slightly different He concentrations to each scenario. I dropped all the different prospect numbers into to a spreadsheet a long time ago, and came up with a P50 average of 4.4%. As I said in my post yesterday "The old CPR assumed a He content of 4.4%. If 8% or higher is proven, this will have the effect of doubling the whole resource."

HeliumBull - I'm not DM, but I do have a very similar bush hat. I have a cat that interrupts my video calls by jumping on the keyboard and displaying her rear end to the camera, not a dog.

All Doubters/FUDers/Derampers - DM quote at 3m 17s "Tai is the key to unlocking an entire Helium province" I have no doubts that HE1 will have a market cap in excess of £1Bn by the end of 2023.

My understanding was that SDX & PRD were both using the Star Valley One rig. SDX had announced two wells from mid April to Mid July, then three wells early September to late December. Thus the rig was available for PRD from mid July to early September, which was going to be very tight to drill MOU-4, -5 & -NE. The first SDX spud has yet to happen. I don't know if this delay is caused by supply chain problems with consumables and parts, or due to the Tenaz takeover putting everything on hold until the new management have reviewed future plans.

Whatever the delay, this is likely to have a knock-on effect to our window of opportunity. The details of our rig option have not been announced, I don't know if we have specific dates or a undefined time window booked, or just an unspecified right to drill 3 holes. I assume that SDX, PRD & Star Valley are going to have to agree a plan between them for the rest of the year, once both hiring parties have clarified their positions - both companies have major uncertainties which should be resolved by end July.

A further possibility is that a PRD partner with deep pockets may have access to a suitable rig & crew elsewhere, this could be shipped from the Gulf to Morocco quite quickly.

Legalwolf, as you well know, the only certainties are death & taxes. When you have helium measured at the surface and from near surface, I think it is reasonable to assume that the stuff lower down was more likely to be helium rather than troglodyte's f@rts. Returning to Tai is geologically & financially sensible - this is where you are most likely to make a discovery, or as the RNS said, to confirm a discovery. The other identified prospects may look very good from a geophysical point of view, but helium has not yet been observed there. You drill them after the first official discovery, when you can raise the same amount of money but with less dilution. I would expect that the drill negotiations include an option fee to retain the rig & crew for further work, weather permitting.

I was a little puzzled by PRD's pursuit of a green hydrogen operation in Romania, far from the sunniest & windiest place in the world. I regret for copyright reasons I can't show it here, but for those of you who have access to Cenkos's research note on Chariot today, take a look at the maps on page 2, showing wind and sun intensities for West Africa. They are plugging Chariot's proposed plant in Mauritania, but Western Sahara is an even better location - assuming the politics are ever resolved. Western Sahara, which has the world's largest phosphate reserves, is claimed by Morocco, not every one agrees.

Dear Flagstaff - for the benefit of the ignorant (particularly those of us outside the UK/Ireland, could you please explain exactly what a White Paper is, by whom it is originated, to whom it is sent, and what follow up is proposed. In other words, is this just some PR guff, and if so, how is it proposed to turn guff into actions? Thanks very much, Keith

Lots of negative posts on here in the last 24 hours.
Q. Why would you try to decrease the value of your own shares?
A. Because you don't hold any, and you have an undeclared short position (lots of those!), or want to buy in at a lower price, or work for someone who has a short position or wants a lower price.

So what is actually going on with HE1 over the next year? Let's take a step back, and revisit the prospectus & CPR, which all investors here should have read. This include a 2U/P50 unrisked resource of 138BCF He, which became 14BCF once risked. In order for HE1 to become an attractive investment proposition, especially to an O & G major, two things have to happen:

1. some of the risk has to be removed - currently this relates to He presence & concentration, trap & seal, reservoir quality.
2. the Prospective Resource needs to be moved to a Contingent Resource, or even better to a Reserve. This is done by measuring gas charge, reservoir porosity & permeability, and effective trap seal, and for Reserve, at least a 30-day flow test.

So if you are HE1 management, with a tight budget, and want to avoid dilution, what do you do? You contract a gas rig (we know this is 8½") to drill where you are certain to be successful. I use certain deliberately - anyone who knows anything about this business knows that the only reason a discovery was not declared last year at three different horizons was due to an inadequate borehole. So with the right rig, no's 1 & 2 above will be adequately addressed- and no this in not 'a last roll of the dice', it is finishing off the job that came within a whisker of being successfully completed last year.

What will happen when a discovery is announced? The results will be included in a new CPR. Most of the old risking will vanish, moving the risked Prospective to a much higher Contingent resource. The old CPR assumed a He content of 4.4%. If 8% or higher is proven, this will have the effect of doubling the whole resource. Furthermore, the new areas to the north of Tai & Itumbula, with deeper reservoirs, will be included. Do not be surprised to see a new Contingent Resource of 200BCF. All this from one drill this year. As further prospects are drilled, Rukwa could end up being 500BCF. That is an awful lot of He.

So, next steps after drilling Tai? The share price will be a lot higher than now, so raise money by a rights issue, as agreed at the last AGM. It is my understanding that any shares not taken up by existing holders can be placed. This cash is then used to drill the other refined prospects that have been identified by all the geophysical work done over the last six months.

There is a possibility of JV-ing with Noble Helium - makes a lot of sense to share both operating & infrastructure costs. NH have some backers with deep pockets who may become involved. Our Chairman has friends with even deeper pockets. O&G majors' pockets are the deepest of all.

...and there are still muppets complaining that a rig contract has not actually been signed yet, and that there will be a placing. Of course there will be a placing, just after discovery, allowing the same rig to be financed to move to Itumbula High, and possibly elsewhere if the rains come late again. I expect to see Trekmadone back here soon, with his £5 sign off.

Kai was founder of Notting Hill Geophysics, who are 3D seismic interpretation specialists. Note HE1 haven't done any 3D seismic,
BUT
NHG "also perform probabilistic volumes calculation and prospect risking for farm-in data rooms, licensing rounds or asset sales."

Lorna is Principal Geologist, Kai is Principal Geophysicist

There are only two proposed mineralisation styles.

Style 1. Noril'sk-Talnahk. Hot magma has intruded through pre-existing sulphur-rich sediments, via fracture zones, forming keel & gullwing structures. As the liquid magma cools, the absorbed sulphur combines with metals in the magma, and causes metal sulphides to coalesce at the base of the keels, at the mouths of feeder zones, and sometimes at the base of the gullwings where they meet the keel. Likely minerals - Cu, Ni, PGEs. Location - all Karoo-age gabbros, incl areas A, B, C, 30km 'tail', KSZ south.

Style 2. IOCG. Hot mineralised aqueous fluids have passed up through existing rock without displacing it, depositing the minerals as the fluid cools, primarily in brecciated sections. The existing rock is altered by heat and pressure (metamorphosed) but remains in position. Likely minerals - Fe as magnetite or haematite, Cu, Au, possibly PGEs, Co, V, U. Location - at depth in Great Red Spot.

The usual scattering of posts "no drill until 2023" "management are duffers" "have we been duped?" "no plans or prospects named".

1. A comprehensive 2022 drill campaign requires a) a suitable rig b) knowing where to drill c) about $20M, of which HE1 already have around half.
2. There is no shortage of adequate drill rigs.
3. A huge amount of work over the last year has delineated a number of high priority targets.
3. $10M for a project of this scale is a drop in the ocean.
4. Delaying for a year would reduce the net present value by about $100M.
5. So you do a JV, borrow the money, or do a capital raise.
6. Here is an edit from Chairman Ian Stalker's LinkedIn:
"Ian has been involved in raising in the order of US$750mm from the Capital markets for a range of successful Mining Projects and has a track record of returning initial investment value growth to shareholders. He has been directly involved in the management and development of two junior mining companies in the last 10+ years ( Uramin Ltd., and K92 Mining) that achieved a Stock Market Capital value of more than $ 2 billion dollars each, both from an initial capital listing on the respective exchanges of less than $50m. ln addition, he managed a range of Junior companies that achieved commercial success. Always remembering the importance of growing, developing and working with talented teams and individuals to achieve sustainable growth and business."

7. Ian's personal holding in K92 Gold is worth $18.4M. He holds almost 2% of HE1.
8. Ian is Chairman of Bradda Head Lithium. Jim Mellon is Bradda's largest shareholder, and NED.
9. Ian & Jim are also both on the board of Condor Gold
10. HE1 easily has the potential to be larger than any of the other resource companies than Ian & Jim have been involved with. Jim has stated his interest in further investment with high tech related resource companies.
11. Do you muppets seriously think that there will be no drill campaign this year???

Suspension of trading to prevent a disorderly market often occurs - just recently with 27 Russian stocks, but very rarely does suspension happen at the request of the company concerned. That does not mean that it is not possible - how and why it can occur is laid out in the FCA Handbook:

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5.pdf

The relevant sections are: 5.1.1., 5.1.4., 5.3.1., 5.3.4., 5.3.7., 5.4.2., 5.4.3.

Don't complain that you were not warned!

Scott - that line may well have been from a 90's movie, since Will originally had Marcellus say something different in 'Hamlet': "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark". Whatever, wtf has this got to do with HE1?

JP2K & others. The area A & B data are all part of the revised KSZ model, which will be presented in its entirety. I believe that it is taking longer than expected for a good reason. The immediately pre-drill B1 supposition (of the B1 target being within a cross-formational injection of magma coming up a structural weakness created way back in Proterozoic times) did not entirely match the original keel & gull wings Noril'sk model. The post-drill identification of two, or even multiple, smaller orebodies is reverting to the original model of a vertical feeder dyke and keel deposits. It is very important that KAV confirms that their model replicates reality. We know that further TDEM was required to get an accurate as possible 3D image of the B1 target zone. It is vital to get this right prior to further drilling - another drill that misses the target would be a PR & share price disaster.

I suspect that a couple of TDEMs were done & interpreted, followed by a couple more from different directions/angles. These results are being incorporated into the updated model. It would be plain daft to release a new model that does not take into account the latest readings on your key identified mineralised zone. We need to be a little more patient - I expect this will be released next month rather than May.

The completion of the KSZ model, and results from Ditau, will both determine the future drilling schedule. Even if drilling at the KSZ does not resume immediately after the 6 holes at Ditau, further TDEM will be done over the 30km 'tail' on the KSZ, and possibly also KSZ South, to build up a target inventory.

Everyone (including all at KAV) recognises the importance of positive identification of mineralisation at B1, all the more reason to get it absolutely right. If a few extra weeks are needed, that's a good investment of time.