Member Info for KeithOz

Coxo - My hypothesis: the RNS will state that assay results will be delayed due to the winch being unable to lift the weight of pure Palladium cores out of the borehole, and they will be difficult to cut due to the swarm of embedded 10 karat loop-clear blue diamonds. Beat that, rampers.

JP - this is from memory. 1. Castillo Copper / Big One / Arya prospect, Queensland Aus. Turned out to be disseminated sulphides & graphite. 2. Can't remember the details but a few years ago in Canada - 8000+ S was sheared graphite. imho B1 is unlikely to be graphitic, since unlike these two examples it is clearly cross-formational, and the earlier B hole only 1km away did not reveal any high-graphite rocks. Anyway, relax, we'll probably know Monday morning.

I believe it is inevitable that not only will HeliumOne receive a takeover offer, but that there will be a bidding war. I intend to hang on to every share until the HE1 board agrees a recommended offer. I'm not going to start speculating on a likely take out price, since I (nor anyone else) do not have sufficient information to do such a calculation. But I am going to speculate on potential bidders.

Government-related entities.
Tanzania – privatisation would be the worst possible option. Very unlikely since they know after the Acacia Mining debacle that would put off every single international investor, and Tanzania is desperately in need of such investment.
USA – the BLM reserve is almost completely depleted. The US has a list of strategic commodities that includes Helium, and it is unlikely that the US would be happy seeing HE1 bought by a Chinese company, but they do have new indigenous supply.
China – believe that they have automatic right to acquire any vital resource, especially in Africa, and especially if they can then control supply. A Chinese SOE is almost certainly waiting in the wings.

Oil & Gas companies
Obvious acquirers, since they can readily leverage their exploration, production & transport capabilities, and gain ESG brownie points for moving away from hydrocarbons. All the US and European majors have announced diversification targets, and some of the Chinese outfits (mostly SOEs) are already going down that road, particularly CNOOC, Sinopec & CNPC.

High Tech manufacturers
Semiconductors – Intel, Samsung, TSMC, plus emerging Chinese players.
LED/LCDs – LG, Samsung (again)
MRIs – Fujifilm, Siemens, Philips, GE, Toshiba, Hitachi, etc

Companies with vast server farms requiring supercooling
Google, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, etc

Existing specialist gas distribution companies
Air Liquide, Praxar, BOC, LG (again), Samsung (yet again)

Others
Spacex, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic (big users for tank flushing)

Any additions to this potential list are welcome. My bet is on an O & G major.

Part 1.
I've said all I can say with my geologist's hard hat on, until we see the latest seismic superimposed on the MSS data, which I think will be more than just interesting. So a comment today with my business development hat on, concerning speculation by a small group of posters here over a JV or sale.

DM, like us all here, has one overriding objective - to make as much money as possible. He has a simple problem - how to find enough money to develop Rukwa and the other two basins. Everyone knows this will take a lot of drilling, and a lot of infrastructure to start producing on a commercial scale, and that means a lot of cash is needed. So where will it come from?

First, how much cash? Suppose Tai-3 is a winner, and there is sufficient He to justify a modular production plant. Details of the capital costs ($50M + infrastructure) are found in Section 9.1 & 9.3 of the original SRK CPR in the prospectus:

https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf

Section 9.4 tells us that at a bulk He price of $250/MCf (it is now higher), profit would be in excess of $200/MCf. That's a nice little earner, and on its own would be an attractive investment to a third party. So if you were DM, would you try to raise $50m, or try to sell half or all of the project? To get the best price, you need to be as advanced as possible - proof of commerciality is worth far more than just the current exploration potential. It would make a lot of sense to get to the small scale proof of concept, before selling out to a major partner. Market cap is currently £70M / $94M. On a discovery, market cap could easily go well north of $200M, so raising $50M would not be a problem, and not desperately dilutive, considering the opportunity. This is the route I would choose. Interesting to note that our very well connected Chairman, Ian Stalker, is also the chairman of Bradda Head Lithium, whose 20% shareholder happens to be Jim Mellon, who is not short of a bob or two, and has a strong interest in tech-related mining companies.
To maximise our return, I think it best to first prove up commerciality, then open up negotiations to the big boys for developing the whole of the "Saudi Arabia of Helium". Who would be the joint venturer or purchaser? That was the subject of a post I did back in July 31st last year, which I will repeat below.

Buzz - You must know that half the listed companies in the UK have had to delay releasing their results. This is not because they have financial problems, but because the availability of external finance folks and auditors is greatly reduced due to Covid. So, since you can not be so totally ignorant that you do not know this, why are you here repeatedly asking such stupid questions? I assume it can only be because for whatever reasons you think you will profit by spreading FUD.

You are filtered, I suggest others do the same.

Smart move to appoint Brett as Director & full-time COO. He has enormous relevant experience, not least of which being the world's foremost expert on the Great Red Spot. Clearly he would not take on such a role unless he had a strong belief in the Kavango story.

" Exploration capex in 2022 is expected to be c.$45 million, which includes capital exposure to historic commitments in Guyana and Argentina. Tullow continues to seek strategic partners to unlock value and reduce its capital exposure in these emerging basins."

So is the delay to Orinduik drilling because TLW is trying to offload their stake? I would have thought there would be plenty of interest, not least from TOQAP.

This may be of interest, from the PorterGeo database, we could see one, all, or none of these:

"There are three main ore types developed at Noril'sk and Talnakh. These are:

i). Disseminated sulphides within the differentiated gabbro-dolerite sills, principally on the lower margins of the mineralised sills in the taxitic and to a lesser degree the picritic zones. They occur as droplets, schleiren and fine sulphide veinlets, forming sheet like conformable bodies up to 40 m thick and comprise combinations of chalcopyrite, cubanite and pyrrhotite with troilite and pentlandite. Grades average 0.5 to 0.6% Ni, 0.6 to 0.7% Cu, and 5 to 6 g/t PGE;

ii). Massive sulphides found principally on the lower contact of the mineralised sills, both within the enclosing rocks and to a lesser degree the sill, and are often separated from the sill by several metres of barren sediment or cupriferous mineralisation. Sometimes they are also found on the upper margin of the sill. In other locations the massive sulphides cut across the sill to its upper margins. The massive sulphides are divided into either pyrrhotite, cubanite or chalcopyrite types, depending on the dominant sulphide, with associated pentlandite moihoekite and talnakhite. Individual massive sulphide bodies may be up to 60 m thick as at Oktyabr'sky where it cover an area of 3.5 sq km. Grades vary drastically with the sulphide assemblage, but are of the order of 2.8% Ni, 5.6% Cu and 15 g/t PGE. There is evidence that the massive sulphides post date the disseminated sulphides; and

iii). Vein disseminations of 'cupriferous' ore which are found below the massive sulphide, between the massive sulphide and the lower margins of the sill, and within sediments on the upper margin of the sill, often associated with zones of 'skarn' altered brecciated dolerite and marl/argillite. They may be 10 to 20m thick. The main metallic minerals are pyrrhotite, pentlandite, chalcopyrite, cubanite, millerite, pyrite, magnetite, bornite, chalcocite, etc."

PS: Schleiren is banding of mineralisation, a bit like we saw in the photos of "f*d up rocks".
Skarn is rock changed by hot, chemically active fluids migrating from the intruding magma, and can be used as a 'pathfinder' to an orebody. Disseminated sulphides can occur as a 'halo' around a massive sulphide deposit. This halo can extend as much as 100m from the orebody, and can sometimes act as indicator of proximity or direction to the orebody. This is one reason KAV are drilling to a TD of 650m, when the orebody is between 525-575m - the kind of mineralisation and alteration of the rocks either side of the hoped-for orebody could provide a 'pathfinder' or 'pattern' to help location of future orebodies.

Massive sulphides are visually very obvious, but other kinds of mineralisation may not be. For example, 1g/T Pd will not be visible to a trained geologist with a hand lens, will not show up on XRF, and is unlikely to show even if they cut a thin section for microscopy. Pd is currently $US 2160/0z. 28g per oz = $US 77 per T value for the ore, even without anything else. That's why I keep saying even if we get a 50m intercept of visible massive sulphides, the market may not fully respond until the assays are in.

Should of course have added that these shares are not fungible, as I'm sure you are aware. i.e., you cannot buy HE1 in London and sell them as HLOGF in NY, or vice versa - they are separate trading instruments.

I haven't traded HE1 on the OTC markets, but I have other shares, and would sound a loud note of caution, especially if you are attempting arbitrage. Most of these shares are highly illiquid, including HE1. Dealing is on a matched bargain basis, and some people's idea of a fair price is crazy. I have waited several days to sell even fairly small parcels of shares at anything like a reasonable price. I think you would have to be very optimistic to believe that you can profit from a price differential that could evaporate or even invert markedly before you have time to complete the arbitrage pair.

It would seem that the work planned for this year will use up the rest of the Origin free carry money, as well as FOG's remaining cash. This final quote from Cenkos toady is therefore of particular interest:

"Given Falcon’s strategy to monetise its interest in the Beetaloo once commercialisation has been established, we are highly encouraged by the Q4/21 results from some of Falcon’s potential suitors, with many announcing record sales revenues and free cash flow. "

that's research hyphen tree dot comm

OK, we all know that Cenkos are not unbiased, but their report today is uniformly positive:

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/falcon-oil-gas-ltd-/research/cenkos-securities/cenkos-falcon-oil-gas-ltd-the-single-biggest-year-in-the-1-billion-year-history-of-the-beetaloo/39_f71dd3a9-c841-4680-8d40-7d4ad8dfc2f9/eb557059-b796-4ec4-9267-13fb15e90aef

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I see in the SDX RNS today that they have spudded what they state to be the second of a 12 drill programme between now and early 2023. Does anyone know if PRD is still intending to use the Star Valley 101 rig & crew for MOU-4, and if so, is it booked and for when? Drill date seems to be an ever moving feast, last I heard from PRD it was 1st Q 2022, then the CPR said 2nd Q. What about MOU-5 and most importantly MOU-NE? These were last stated by PRD to be contingencies - although why your most important prospect (NE) should only be a contingency I have no idea.

Anyone know what is going on?

Dai is correct (again) - I can confirm that the actual location for TAI-1 is -8.369005, 32.329898, which is slightly different from the coordinates previously released. The rectangular drill pad and track leading to it can be clearly seen on Google Earth.

Combining the MSS photo
https://twitter.com/Heliumone1/status/1483062622048206852/photo/1
on Twitter with GE, the location of the highest part of the MSS seep nearest to TAI-1 is at -8.371652 32.325005 , just to the West of a small wood, and about 700m to the SW of the original TAI drill pad. There is an additional separate area of He seepage a few hundred metres further to the SW. Of course a seep may represent leakage, rather than the presence of a trap with a good seal, that will be confirmed by the new high-resolution seismic. I am pretty sure we will be seeing a TAI-3 within a km of TAI-1 & 2

I have no idea of the relevance of the black rectangle on the Twitter photo.

If you are having trouble entering and/or viewing decimal degrees in Google Earth, go to: Tools, Options, Show Lat/Long, Decimal.

Re the basin - I was looking on Google Earth for the taps - is it separate hot & cold or a mixer?

Ella- if you leave the casing in, it makes the hole narrower, so you would need to use a smaller diameter drill. You then might find the need to put in a section of smaller casing further down. This could in turn cause problems not only with DHEM, but also core retrieval and possibly excess stress on the drill rods - as we have just found out, that has already been a problem.

Worzel - not stupid at all, in fact this is a possibility were it not for the last bit of retrieved core. There are numerous Va-Ti-Fe deposits worldwide, many associated with gabbros, also with metamorphism of Fe-containing sediments. The Fe component is often magnetite. The problem with these deposits is the difficulty (read cost) of separating out the components. Mostly, it gets sold as ferro-titanium or ferro-vanadium.
The reason I had assumed the GRS was not such a deposit was because KAV had reported detection of Cu & Ni by XRF, and visible chalcopyrite, in the Proterozoic core - see pinned tweet in KAV Twitter. I would not normally expect these elements/minerals to be associated with a Va-Ti-Fe deposit.

Well, thanks for clarifying to the board that you don't know very much about this company or its licences.
"Anyhow the CPR will clarify". It did, you seem to be unaware that it has been published. It is bullish, despite being based on just one prospect.
"Neogene v Triassic or nutech this and that is just obfuscation". Obfuscation does not appear once in the CPR. You do not seem to realise that there are very large Triassic/Jurassic reservoirs in the Guercif region, such as Jurassic MOU-NE and including deeper but as yet unexplored TAGI sands. The Neogene later/shallower deposits which are the subject of the CPR, which have already been designated Contingent Resources rather than gas shows, are being appraised first since it is lower cost. I ask again, have you any idea who NuTech are?
Final question. What is your real purpose in posting on this board?

just so I don't confuse anyone - the RNS is due before the end of Q1, not the drilling!