Member Info for KeithOz

F10 - I agree with the numbers in your last two posts, there will need to be serial Canje discoveries to do very much for ECO. The real money is still dependant upon Tullow getting off their @rse.

XV, Jackal. Details & costs of proposed production are in S.9 of the CPR. Info is on p. 158 of this 198 pp document (sorry!)

https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf

Your capital cost of $50M seems correct, but there are a lot of unknowns relating to number and cost of production wells, and cost of infrastructure (roads to the middle of nowhere etc). Operating cost estimate of $32-37/MCF, selling price $250/MCF. So very profitable. btw, market price is now nearer $350/MCF. Yum.

Well, scmdcyp,
1. can you remember why you bought shares in this company?
2. a year on, do you think HE1 is more or less likely to achieve what it set out to do ?
3. if you sell, do you have what you consider to be a better place to invest the money?

F79 - I can suggest a causation as well as a correlation between conception of babies and lack of street lights, but this bulletin board is not the place to go into details.

BCB - I think you are confusing the two Michaels. Mike Foster has just retired, Mike Moles, who is still very much on the board, has doubled his holding by buying a further 2.5% for £410K.
On the original topic - I don't give a cr@p if someone is selling, if they didn't there wouldn't be anything to buy. I also don't give a cr@p at what price they are selling - whatever it is, it is just option money compared to where we should be in a year's time. As you so rightly say, if you believe in KAV's potential you should hold and not worry about minuscule changes in the share price based on tiny turnover (yes, I mean minuscule and tiny). If you are not comfortable with the balance of risk/reward in KAV, you shouldn't be in exploration stocks at all - try an MSCI-ACWI ETF

Coxo - I don't understand your post. There were buys and sells taking place all day - if you were being told no trade was available you need to change your broker. Only 1.8M shares changed hands yesterday - less than 0.5% of the company. That is not very much for a company approaching a major news event. Most of the activity was close to the ask, so was most probably buying. I don't see any "large sell", I only see fairly subdued but otherwise normal trading. Maybe you are over-analysing in an a attempt to rationalise what is actually pretty random data.

Magoo - see my post of 5 minutes ago.

Daven66. I answered your question earlier today (before you asked it!):

"Since you want to get at least an outline agreement to book a rig or rigs during the dry season, you will enter in to a Memorandum of Understanding, which is just what it says at the top - a proposed course of action is laid out, together with the factors that may lead to the proposal to be amended, with the agreement by both parties that they will apply their best efforts in following that course of action, such that it will lead to a legal contract. The difference between an MOU and a legal contract is that the latter is enforceable under civil law, and failure to deliver under the contract by either side can result in financial penalties."

Hope this helps - Keith

Porky: I stated in my posy earlier today "In yesterday's Katie interview, at 3.50 DM says he is "looking forward to being able to announce an MOU with a rig provider" and then continues on the subject of drilling location and timing. This has been misinterpreted in two ways - firstly by hearing DM's stutter of 'rig' as 'big', and secondly by not fully understanding the purpose of an MOU."

This is the link: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/971344/helium-one-announce-multiple-surface-helium-anomalies-identified-at-rukwa-eyasi-and-balangida-971344.html

If you have different information from an alternative source, please quote the chapter and verse. If you cannot, this is indeed a clear case of cognitive bias on your part.

last 3 letters missing! - "a JV"

The vast majority of the posters who appear on my view of this board (there are lots who show only as green lines!) are genuine long-term holders who believe this company has the potential for a market capitalisation in excess of £1 Bn. I am one of those. However, it is too easy to reinforce each others' views by taking a piece of information and repeating it with an overly positive slant that fits in with our hopeful expectations - the effect of cognitive bias. An example today concerns what some believe to be forthcoming JV with a major producer. While this would be very nice, it is predicated on a simple misunderstanding.

In yesterday's Katie interview, at 3.50 DM says he is "looking forward to being able to announce an MOU with a rig provider" and then continues on the subject of drilling location and timing. This has been misinterpreted in two ways - firstly by hearing DM's stutter of 'rig' as 'big', and secondly by not fully understanding the purpose of an MOU. At this stage, before analysis and interpretation of the 2D seismic and integration with the satellite data, it is not possible to know how many prospects should be drilled and to what depth. It is therefore not possible to enter into a definitive contract with a drilling company, particularly if they will be working on part remuneration in shares - the drillers will want to see the full details of the seismic and make sure they can evaluate their risk of taking shares rather than cash.

Since you want to get at least an outline agreement the books a rig or rigs during the dry season, you will enter in to a Memorandum of Understanding, which is just what it says at the top - a proposed course of action is laid out, together with the factors that may lead to the proposal to be amended, with the agreement by both parties that they will apply their best efforts in following that course of action, such that it will lead to a legal contract. The difference between an MOU and a legal contract is that the latter is enforceable under civil law, and failure to deliver under the contract by either side can result in financial penalties.

If I was DM, I would want to get He discovery at several locations, and an updated CPR based on those discoveries, before entering into negotiations with a major company. DM would then be in a much stronger negotiating position, and able to agree better terms for a farm-out, or a better price for an outright sale.

I would welcome the next two RNSs to cover identification of new must-drill prospects, and appointment of a drilling contractor - hopefully on a shares-for drilling basis, so that our modest cash balance can be stretched to cover at least three deep boreholes. I'm not much bothered by whether shallow drills are done or not, I don't see that as where the big money will be made. Make no mistake, this is a big project, with big money. In the second half of this year, I would welcome discoveries, a new CPR, and an announcement of

A glass half full is still pessimistic. I'm looking more for an overflowing barrel.

Thank you for the kind offers of liquid refreshment, but you do realise I'm just running a pyramid selling scheme, the more punters that come in at the bottom, the more I can sell out at the top!
As a hard-nosed scientist, of course I normally don't have any truck with airy-fairy stuff like astrology. However, since Ben Turney has recently been tweeting philosophically, enigmatically and possibly mystically, I thought I would share with you the last couple of lines of my 2022 horoscope (Jon & Oscar Cainer):
"...in 2022... with the resources coming your way, tremendous growth is possible. Even if you sometimes feel like you're only just clinging on, this is one ride you can't afford to miss!"
I sincerely hope the resources come everyone's way, and you all manage to cling on for the ride.

Polemic - It is perfectly reasonable to ask if we are wrong, or if we have missed something, given the yawning gap between the market cap and the predictions of some posters here (including me). Interesting that the in the last RNS the CEO of PRD should clearly state his frustration with this issue. I only hold ten stocks worldwide, the only thing in common is that there is a huge discrepancy between their market capitalisation and my evaluation of their worth. The only certainty is that I will be proven wrong on some of them! I am always happy to see and discuss opposing views, as long as the viewpoints being expressed are honest and fact-based, rather than attempts to manipulate the share price for personal reasons. Unfortunately this and other bulletin boards are infested with both professional and amateur manipulators, sometimes working in a coordinated manner, hence the occasional emotional response to perceived negativity by some here.

Hi Polemic, I tried to give you my honest opinion based on what I consider to be factual information, and my personal view has lead to me to purchase several million shares in this company, roughly four times as many as I held at the time of the MOU-1 drilling in July last year - I can perhaps understand that you therefore might consider that my opinion is highly biased, making me a 'ramper'. I am well aware of what Stockholm syndrome means, and even know how to spell Stockholm correctly, so know that this is an inappropriate description for the behaviour you allege - perhaps you are thinking of 'cognitive bias'.

As to what has been missed - I think that the answer is as others have already suggested - this is a microcap, in an unloved sector, not covered by analysts, therefore uninvestable by just about all institutional investors. Furthermore, other companies operating onshore Morocco (SDX, Sound) have not done well, and perhaps there is a perception that Predator is another chip from the same block.

Before putting my money on the line, I researched this company very carefully, and admit I was totally puzzled that what I considered a successful result from MOU-1 in July was met with a collapse of the share price. Subsequent events have shown that the market's conclusions regarding MOU-1 were incorrect, and demonstrated that PRD does have the potential that I and other (apparently all deluded) bulletin board posters believed possible.

I have posted this before, but will re-post because I believe it is important. On July 9th, based only on the highly restricted wording of the MOU-1 RNS, Sam Wahab, the respected O & G analyst at SPAngel said:
"Whilst the gas shows recorded appear to be uncommercial at this location, the Company will have gained crucial sub-surface thermogenic gas migration data to support drilling at MOU-4. PRD’s share price is currently down c.30% on the news which could represent a compelling buying opportunity ahead of further drilling activity this year in our view. "

Since then, a number of things have happened:
*MOU-1 has been extensively tested, declared a discovery, and is scheduled for full flow testing
*A highly supportive CPR has been released for the entire Moulouya Fan
*MOU-NE, which is of staggering size & prospectivity for both oil & gas, has been discovered
*Lonny Baumgartner jumped ship to PRD from a cushy position at SDX
*the gas price has more than doubled, with a gas crisis in Europe & beyond.
*the PRD share price has fallen by a further 30%

So I will leave it to you and to you alone to decide whether or not to agree with Sam Wahab that this still represents a "compelling buying opportunity". If you disagree, and wish to do so publicly on this board, it would be very instructive for all of us apparently with the 'tribal views of a desperately net bullish mob' if you were to detail your reasons.
Have a great day - Keith

Wow, QS. Your spelling, grammar, financial knowledge, technical understanding and forecasting skills are all of identical quality.

Yes - John, Hillary, Ben & Mike all understand :-) . If it was formational - ie aligned with the rest of the rock strata which have been deposited as sediments, there is a higher probability that the anomaly is also sedimentary in origin, and less likely to consist of the massive metal sulphides we are seeking. It is clearly cross-formational, ie at a sharp angle to the sedimentary strata. This means that it has been forced into position at a later date than the surrounding sediments, which vary in age according to their depth. Just about the only thing that could be positioned in this manner is liquid magma, forced up through a pre-existing structural weakness. The depth of this anomaly is consistent with the Karoo-age gabbros located in the earlier drill hole 1km away, and the orientation of the anomaly is towards the strong magnetic and gravitational high previously identified - suggesting that the magma forming this anomaly has come up through the same structural weakness as the earlier Proterozoic gabbro. In other words , they believe that one 'feeder zone' is responsible for the positioning of the ancient and more modern gabbros. We will have most of the answers in the next two or three weeks.

Polemic - You are misunderstanding the legal and commercial issues. Yes, all gas & oil is owned by the State, but this is then licenced out such that the State (through ONHYM) retain 25%, the remaining 75% becomes the company's, on which tax is levied upon production.

The post-tax NPV takes account of all of this, plus the cost of extraction, distribution and associated infrastructure cost, as well as the time value of money. Pre-tax NPV does not include the cost of taxes (which in Morocco are very low compared to other jurisdictions), but includes all the other stuff.

The recent CPR is rather misleading, since the low chance of success used in the calculations (25%), is commercial, not geological, risk. I find it bizarre that they are using such a low chance of commercial success, since this is predicated upon connection to and shipment through the Maghreb pipeline. We already know this is not PRD's preferred option for MOU gas, the figures for trucked CNG are already available via the RNS early last year and the famous 'Michael Caine" valuation.

So how much is it really worth to Predator? My guess is twice the figure quoted in the CPR, which for the MOU fan ALONE (not including the much larger MOU-NE, prospective for both gas & oil) equates to about £5 a share. So I'm not selling if offered 30p a share by a predator upon Predator.

US volume averages only 85K per day, so this was 5x average volume.

This article is interesting, but the link doesn't seem to work. Try this : https://www.equivest.capital/blog , then click on the picture bottom right.