Member Info for KeithOz

I was not aware that there was a history of year-end updates from PRD. It would not be sensible to release an update unless there was actually anything to update upon. In Morocco, although it is highly likely that a gentlemen's agreement has been in place for a long time, a large number of political and financial moving parts would need to be in a fixed position before a definitive RNS could be released. In T&T, a licence has been applied for, but the result is unlikely to be known until next year. For Ireland, nothing will happen until there is some political agreement manifested other than in vague and often conflicting statements, and their particular god is the only one who has any idea how long that will take.
I also would like to see something other than the chipping away at the share price referred to earlier, but have little options other than trust the management or sell. I will choose the former.

and let's all try to spell it correctly (me included) - MOLOPO. Can we club together and buy lse an edit facility for Krissmus?

It might be helpful to readers to view the actual exploration results RNSs this year for Malopo Farms, recovered from under the tsunami of POW announcements:

22nd February https://www.investegate.co.uk/power-metal--pow-/rns/botswana-molopo-farms-complex---drilling-update/202102221430019280P/

30th March https://www.investegate.co.uk/power-metal--pow-/rns/botswana-molopo-farms-complex---exploration-update/202103301345119988T/

8th April https://www.investegate.co.uk/power-metal--pow-/rns/botswana-molopo-farms-complex---assay-results/202104081445028750U/

21st July https://www.investegate.co.uk/power-metal--pow-/rns/botswana-molopo-farms---exploration-update/202107211519170283G/

24th September https://www.investegate.co.uk/power-metal--pow-/rns/botswana-molopo-farms-complex---further-assays/202109241515069521M/

...could reasonably be assessed as INconclusive at this stage. Sorry!

re Twitter yesterday, yes rather curious: "Spectral leads the way when it comes to identifying conductors at depth in Southern Africa using remote sensing technology... Its expertise in mapping the geology beneath Kalahari cover is critical to KAV's search for massive copper, nickel, and PGM deposits in the KSZ.... Spectral’s founder Cas Lötter & his team have developed sophisticated methods to meet the challenge of surveying the KSZ...These have been vital for KAV's current drill campaign."

Now, as far as I am aware, Spectral have identified three potential conductors, the details of which have been made publicly available. A detailed image of and position for conductor A was shown, but when drilled "nothing of interest" (quote from BT) turned up, although of course we still await assays. Apparently drilling is not going ahead at Conductor C during the current KSZ campaign. That leaves Conductor B. My best guess is that it is still below current drill depth, and not likely to reach TD until late next week.

KAV are nevertheless tweeting the above and going ahead with detailed planning for an extensive TDEM campaign next year to present as a package to a potential JV partner or purchaser. This must be based on something substantial, since results made public to date could reasonably be assessed as conclusive at this stage
Possibilities:
1. The KAV technical team have spent too much time under the Kalahari sun.
2. Jeremy's stated 85% chance of success for B is actually 100% but he isn't allowed to say that.
3. TDEM results not yet made public, combined with drill results to date, have strongly suggested something very interesting to the team that cannot be announced until assays & lithographic results are back.
4. 2 & 3.

Just idle speculation while waiting for the drilling to finish :-)

Nicidemus - re. Paul's CV. It is on p.3 of the Sept 28th presentation (I have a compulsive habit of re-reading old material, to see what it actually meant!)
"Founded H2 Green Power Ltd - hydrogen start-up"
I can't locate a company of this name, but there is this which may be the company, not much on their website yet - www.h2gp.co.uk
"Hydrogen Green Power Ltd (HGP) has been established to develop and sell turnkey systems to facilitate the production of green hydrogen and the decarbonisation of production processes by combining green hydrogen with captured waste CO2 to create green biomethane."
"Coming Soon: Announcement of an exciting new decarbonisation project ".

I'm not sure why you would waste green hydrogen by combining it with C02 to form what must be very expensive methane, then burn the methane to release C02 again.

Re. separate listings: PRD are already looking at this route - p.14 of the 28th Sept presentation that I mentioned earlier today clearly states that a separate IPO spin off of Irish assets is being considered, and p.13 mentions a JV SPV for T&T CO2 EOR.

After thinking about it, why would Vermilion move to a majority stake in a field where they are already operator, that has a limited life - 10 years? Unless you were going to roll Corrib & Corrib South into one big field, largely using existing infrastructure, and considerably lengthen field life. The remaining Corrib minority partner is a Canadian pension fund, I recall. I'm sure they would be happy with that idea. Vermilion is a big company with plenty of investment capability, partnering with PRD's Corrib South & Meg Mell would make a lot of sense, not sure where this would leave Ram Head.

Can someone help me out? I am sure I am not alone in not understanding how Ireland functions :-)
Was the Irish government statement earlier this year not to issue new gas licences (in addition to the earlier ban on new oil) actually law, or merely policy? Are PRD's Corrib South & Ram Head new or old licences for the purpose of this law/policy? Bearing in mind that it now appears to have become policy (but not law - see why I'm confused) that new gas-fired power stations will be built to replace peat/coal/oil, has there been any statement on how Ireland intends to source the gas necessary to run what appears to be multiple new power stations?

It seems the country has a problem not only with power production, but also with gas sourcing, as the two go hand in hand. Rather odd that there is no statement from anyone on how the country will address the sourcing issue. Everyone here is now seeing the obvious potential for PRD to step into the breach, as Paul foresaw several years ago, but what needs to be done at government level, and practically, to enable this? How likely is this to be derailed by the Greens & their friends?

Lochnez/ Nicidemus - I'm not sure I agree with your conclusions. Further to the 28th July RNS, concerning possible acquisition of a producing gas asset, there was a more explicit comment on P.14 of the 28th September presentation : "Seeking to merge Mag Mell & POGVL & evaluating a possible acquisition of an interest in the Corrib gas field to create material substance for an IPO spin-off". So it seems that it was PRD that was interested in the Equinor holding, not "a Big Beast". Since we haven't been able outbid Vermillion, where do we go next with the Ireland project?

?a??µ??a, Coxo. You seem to have buyer's remorse, having only come on board last week. You can only buy if someone sells, so be thankful someone is selling. Some people bought in at 2p, maybe taking some profit to hedge against possible negative drill result, maybe just wary of Omicron. No, this isn't a ramped AIM kipper - not AIM for starters. Big clue is to look at shareholders - founders/directors have 27%, I estimate at least another 10% is held by some of the knowledgeable regulars on this BB. Another clue is to look at the new appointments - all highly qualified & experienced, could easily get high paid big company jobs - they understand the potential, are loading up with juicy share options.
Lastly, take a look at this, then relax:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/954609/kavango-resources--one-of-the-biggest-opportunities-you-could-possibly-imagine--says-mining-capital-954609.html
Cheers, Keith

Let me summarise:

"We've been looking into finance options for at least a year, and failed to come up with anything substantial, so we're giving up and handing everything over to an unnamed bank. That unnamed bank has asked us to come up with a whole load of stuff, including capital costs. Despite having supposed to have been looking at that for the last three years, we're going to get started on that next year"

I have spent much of my professional life in business development - acquisitions, divestments, licensing etc. NDAs are absolutely standard when talking to other companies, where discussions are likely to touch on anything which is not in the public domain. They usually do not run to more than a page. There is nothing of significance in this remark.

Of course people are getting twitchy, it is now two months from the last presentation, and only one month to the start of Q1 2022, during which drilling of two holes and testing of three is planned to be completed.

This is the Kingdom of Morocco, things are done a little differently here. Start by Googling "Mohammed VI business interests". The King seems to be a good guy, intent upon lifting Morocco out of poverty and helping his people achieve a better life. Despite there being an elected parliament, he has sole control of foreign policy, and is personally responsible for the good relations with US. UK, Europe & Israel. He pushed through a new Constitution, which among other things guarantees equal rights and opportunities for women - wearing the burqa is illegal. He and his close knit group of advisers are involved in most decisions that could affect the country.

Gas, and particularly Moroccan gas, is seen as a major key to the country's progress. As has been mentioned by other posters, he lost face previously by personally announcing what was supposed to be major gas discovery, which turned out to be little more than a wet f*rt. That will not happen again, and lies behind some of PRD's cryptic messaging. I am quite sure that he will want to review any agreement involving Moroccan gas, even if the agreement is not with one of his own businesses.

With regard to a drilling contract, that is not the normal situation either. The Star Valley 101 rig and crew is "the Moroccan rig". It (they) are currently drilling two holes for SDX, which will finish at the end of December. Prior to that, the rig was sitting in SDX's yard, doing nothing. If it is not used by PRD, it will almost certainly go back there until SDX need to find another little reservoir to keep up with their contractual commitments.

There may not even be a formal RNS containing the normally expected details. It may simply state that a commercially sensitive agreement has been made to fund the drills and tests, and that the rig will mobilise to MOU in January. If an independent company is the joint venture partner, more detail may be made available, but don't hold your breath. I find it very unlikely that someone in country is not prepared to take a $7M bet with such a large potential upside, to many that is just small change.

JP - I agree there is nil chance of coming up with an accurate assessment of value, due to the multiple confounding factors. But using any kind of reasonable assumptions, it is very difficult to derive a valuation anywhere near as low as 5.5p.

I have always made it clear that I am not an O & G specialist, so my understanding may be incorrect, or even more likely, out of date. It is (was) my belief that the deeper the strata under investigation, the more likely it is that overpressure is caused by fluid expansion (e.g. oil generation or oil cracking into gas), in which case there is no significant change in porosity. In more shallow sediments, overpressure is more likely to be caused by sediment compaction, rather than oil/gas generation, in which case there would be a decrease in porosity.
The postulated Guercif kitchen appears to be very deep, so it seems reasonable to expect high gas pressures associated with normal porosity. If Mr/Ms Carj has more accurate information on this, perhaps they could comment, and perhaps also say why they are bringing up shale formations as an example of high pressure and low porosity, when clearly oil/gas shales are not involved in the Guercif stratigraphy.
Sefton, I always read your input and find it interesting, but can we please accept that some people may be quite correct in believing that PRD is not a guaranteed lottery ticket. I welcome all input, positive as well as negative, so that readers can come to their own conclusions based on a balance of viewpoints. Thanks, have a great weekend, mine's already started.

Well, Suggins, Au is often found with PGEs. Personally, I think the other 15% chance is that they have finally located Pandora's box. For those who don't know their mythology, this isn't bad - after Pandora had opened it and let out all the nasties, all that remained inside was Hope.

KAV is doing an all-share deal (as with Molopo Farms), to accelerate the acquisition of the 90% of the LVR JV - this now becomes immediate.
It's all happening this week. When do these guys find time to take a leak?

KAV are in the process of buying in to another Ni-Cu-PGE project, partnering with POW & Spectral again:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/kavango-resources--kav-/rns/option-to-acquire-up-to-51.15--of-molopo-farms/202111260700056648T/
KAV will be operator.

and here is the latest POW RNS on drill results:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/power-metal--pow-/rns/botswana-molopo-farms-complex---further-assays/202109241515069521M/

The chances of B1 being a Cu-Ni-PGE orebody were given at 85% by the boys. I've attempted valuations in the past, here's an update using latest assumptions. If I guess an initial assumption, it is marked with an asterisk, make your own adjustments.

Assumptions:
Orebody size - 500m diameter, 30m* thick (quite small)
Gabbro density - 3
Orebody mass - 18Mt
1%* Ni, 1%*Cu, 1g/t* Pd
Pd - $1968/oz, = $69/g
Cu - $9692/t
Ni - $20420/t
Contained value - $6.7Bn
Mine construction costs - Capital costs of defining a resource, (small) mine, processing plant, infrastructure, etc. - £500M* for each of yrs 1, 2 & 3. Anyone got a better idea?
* Cost of money borrowed: 10% pa, with recognition that income in the future is worth less than it is now (i.e. discount rate applied to project – NPV10). This is currently standard for Africa-based projects.
* Only 50%* of ore is dug up and processed
* Current metal prices constant*
* Cost of extraction, processing, transport (AISC, all-in sustaining costs) – 50%* margin.
* Equal production* over 20-year* mine life.
* 100% ownership, no royalties accounted for.

Gives us an NPV of $395M, with an IRR of 30%. USD: GBP 0.752 = £297M. At 404M shares in issue, that is 73.5p per share (what it is worth to a purchaser TODAY, in its newly discovered state).

That's just for the assumed B1 orebody on its own. No rest of KSZ, no KCB, no Ditau. Certainly not even the faintest glimmer of an IOCG formation of a completely unprecedented scale.

But don't believe me....unless and until the assays come back positive.