Member Info for KeithOz

I don't usually comment on a company's share price, since they tend to go up and down without any particular reason. However, as light relief after TDEM, here are my thoughts.
1. KAV is a microcap without significant institutional holders, hence is dependant largely on private individuals
2. Many of the PIs are short term, looking for a quick 10% profit from what is an intrinsically volatile share.
3. Some of these people turn up on theses BBs trying to ramp or crash the price by spreading misinformation.
4. KAV is very unusual in that it is a very small explorer with an enormous potential upside, hence attracts a higher proportion of speculators, who will sell and move on if they don't see a quick return.
5. Not many understand KAV's strategy of carefully unlocking a fiendishly complex puzzle, by carefully applying the latest scientific techniques, and certainly most don't understand the techniques themselves, nor the significance of the sometimes rather esoteric results.
6. Since most of the investors in exploration companies are used to a drill either hitting a target (big price rise), or not (price drop), they do not know how to react to the complex information typically released by KAV, and many will sell on the perceived lack of good news.
7. Classic example - "we've hit some really interesting rocks in the Proterozoic" = price rise. "We're not sure what this means, will have to wait a few months for assays, etc" = price drop.
8. No understanding of a geological hole - why drill a hole if you're not expecting to find an economic deposit? (rhetorical).
9. Comparisons with other exploration cos. - e.g., Castillo Copper has been making a lot of noise about drilling the assumed Ni-Ci-PGE Arya deposit (named after my favourite GoT assassin) here in Queensland. It had a multi-K Siemens reading, but was revealed this week as graphite with diffuse Fe sulphides. Could that be what KAV has? (A - no).
10. We didn't get rich quick!!! KAV had a TDEM-defined target at A1, but there was nothing interesting there. A2 hit something, but all we understand was that it was f***'d up. B1 hit magnetite - that's not worth anything - better sell now, before the whole sand castle collapses when all the other 'targets' are found not to exist either.
11. So those of us who remain are hopefully able to take a longer view, and realise that this is an exceptional company, with a highly skilled team applying sophisticated and methodological exploration technique in a cost effective manner, over what could turn out to be the most prospective (and very large) area of the planet.
12. I review a lot of exploration companies, most of them are really crap. I currently only have 11 investments worldwide, all explorers, which most people would rightly consider an insanely unbalanced portfolio. I have my reasons for this, which would not suit 99% of investors. KAV is by far my largest investment, so draw your own conclusions. btw, my name is not B

Oh dear, I woke up to a discussion on conductivity.
There is a big difference in what is measured using conventional EM and TDEM. Time Domain EM uses a square waveform current, meaning that it periodically turns off and reverses direction. These EM pulses are sent into the ground from a square transmitting loop, the sides of the square being of roughly the same length as the depth you want to investigate.
What is in effect the electromagnetic echoes of these pulses are then detected by the receiver in the centre of the square. This not only gives you the conductance of the underlying strata or potential orebodies, but also a 3-D image of where they are - so thickness is not an issue that affects the results, in fact thickness can be determined from the results.

The difficulty lies in the interpretation of the data, and the mathematical analysis applied. The understanding of how best to do this is still evolving. Spectral are at the forefront of TDEM data acquisition and interpretation. I could not even begin to explain the maths behind this, all this has only been applied in the last few years, way after I finished my studies and practical exploration experience. If you really want to do your head in, this is probably the best detailed explanation I have seen:

https://archive.epa.gov/esd/archive-geophysics/web/html/time-domain_electromagnetic_methods.html

I suggest you have some strong coffee and painkillers handy.

Legalwolf - re KSZ exploration confusion - you are far from alone! Among the others, apart from me, whom I suspect are struggling are Messrs Moles & Gumbo. KAV started off with a theory of what is within the KSZ and why, and although this may well still be correct, there are clearly unexpected developments, which hopefully will turn out to be advantageous.
The KSZ is covered with a thick layer of what is basically consolidated desert. That has prevented anyone knowing what is actually underneath, but for decades there has been reasonable speculation that the geological environment is conducive to the formation of economically valuable orebodies. As geophysical techniques have become more sophisticated, these suppositions appear to have become more likely. Of course, the only way to confirm this is to drill down and find out what is actually there, then see how this correlates with the geophysical interpretation. This is the current stage of evaluation.

The main unexpected development is that the older and deeper Proterozoic rocks may also be host to economic mineralisation, which was formerly doubted, since it was assumed they were too deep for cost-effective mining. The other unexpected development is for unusual mineral associations, about which we do not yet know enough to draw conclusions.

To answer your specific questions -
1). It is (still) assumed that the Karoo KSZ orebodies are likely to be Cu-Ni-PGE, of which PGEs are likely to provide the largest portion of value, followed by Ni, and lastly Cu. The focus only appears to be on Cu because chalcopyrite is pretty easy to spot, by eye or with a hand lens. The most likely Ni mineral is pentlandite, which at 1-2% is more difficult to see against the background of other minerals comprising the core sample. PGEs, and particularly the most likely (and most valuable) Pd, usually occur in finely disseminated form, so will only be distinguished with any kind of accuracy by fire assay.

2). We have not yet drilled directly through an orebody. A1 didn't turn up anything very interesting, despite the indication from a medium TDEM reading that there was potentially something there. A2 has at a depth of 780m come close to what may prove to be an orebody - the deeper DHEM about to be undertaken will give us a much better idea of size, direction and distance from the deeper part of the A2 hole. Mike Moles's f***d-up rocks from the lower section of the borehole may contain some interesting mineralisation - no one really knows what has happened to these geologically, so we will have to wait for the detailed petrographic and mineralogical analysis and of course chemical assay. It would be very nice if they are found to contain Pd, but for the reasons above we will have to wait to find out.

3. The 8200 S target is very well defined, and if it is an orebody I would reasonably expect that the drill will go straight through the middle of it. The usual caveat - this is exploratio

I assume this is the Star Valley 101 rig again. SDX are spudding the first hole about now, with the second due for completion by the end of December. Assuming PRD has the money to pay for it, presumably it is available to us from the start of Q1 2022. Good to know that Moyra Scott, now PRD's drilling manager, has worked with this rig extensively before.
PG - if you are reading this, it would be comforting to see some kind of announcement on this please, nearly two months after telling us that it was due to happen imminently.

This is all it says on Guyana:

"In the emerging basins of Guyana and Argentina the focus remains on unlocking value from the substantial prospective resource base whilst seeking to reduce the Group's capital exposure."

That could mean either do little as possible, or farm out.

Re the GRS theory touched on by several posters yesterday/today (depends on where you are in the world): The Journal of African Earth Sciences article referenced by Mordi (welcome to the board, btw) is by no less than Jeremy Brett, who was the supervisor of the original drill GRS-1, and is of course now employed by KAV. I had read the summary a year or so ago, and only remembered it because it seemed to confirm the possibility of the GRS and other KSZ gravity/magnetic anomalies being Norilsk-style Cu-Ni-PGE. This possibility is very much still in the frame.

I was a little curious about Ben's tweet of a 30-year old theory, because the Brett paper presented an additional possibility - that of an Olympic Dam style deposit. From the limited info that has been presented today, I would have thought that unlikely. Olympic Dam is basically a mashed-up granite intrusion (very different in origin and chemical makeup to the KSZ mafic/ultramafic intrusions encountered so far), with Cu, Au, U & Ag mineralisation deposited in the cracks - if you excuse the non-technical description :-) Furthermore, the strong magnetic anomaly at Olympic Dam is due to haematite, not magnetite.

Until we hear differently, I will assume that we are still in the ultramafic Cu-Ni-PGE part of the 30-yr old theory, although the presence of lots of magnetite does seem a bit of a curveball. We are told that Jeremy Brett will be taking us through the technical stuff in a few weeks, that will be very interesting and give us the best guidance so far on potential commerciality.

With any luck, we should get results of the 8200 S target just before Christmas. Have you noticed no one has mentioned the 2 planned C target drills recently?

Don't get too excited - you would need to dig through a kilometre of overburden before you hit the magnetite.

JP/Worzel : clearly the strong magnetic response is due to the magnetite, because of the depth I don't see that as particularly exciting from an economic point of view. However, magmatic magnetite is often associated with chalcopyrite (which has been identified in a concentration yet to be confirmed) and with pentlandite, which is a nickel mineral. The RNS mentions "minor nickel". This was always a geological rather than a discovery hole, so we will need to wait for full analysis of the core to see what this is pointing us towards, if anything.
The next hole is targeting Karoo gabbro, not Proterozoic, so when the RNS states that this hole is giving good guidance for the next one, I assume they are thinking more about ground conditions rather than mineral content.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/kavango-resources--kav-/rns/metal-sulphides-encountered-in-hole-kszdd001/202111161002335276S/

It would appear that the high magnetic anomaly of the GRS is magnetite, making it a differently formed rock from the Proterozoic found in A2. However, there were blebs of chalcopyrite (copper sulphide) which is encouraging.

Difficult hole conditions, so too risky for DHEM, which is disappointing.

Drill has moved to the 8200S target.

hyphen, even. Sorry, tired eyes.

where the asterisks are researchhypentreedotcom

Need to be registered to view, but all very positive - titled "A World Class Gas Shale Play" with a buy rating. Says Empire & Tamboran results will be catalysts for FOG later this year, but we already knew that :-)

Maybe can also be viewed here: https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/falcon-oil-gas-ltd-/research/cenkos-securities/cenkos-falcon-oil-gas-ltd-a-world-class-gas-shale-play/39_936a6bd0-a5a5-4f85-8579-5816cebb943a/94765961-f7c4-46fc-b1c0-6176e2722f1e

C & C - You are quite correct that saline bodies can give false positives for various kinds of electromagnetic surveys, but such a body would be highly unlikely in the middle of a deep intrusive complex. Graphitic and sulphidic mineralisation can also give false positives, as can magnetite. Obviously not magnetite, this would show as a major anomaly on the aerial magnetic surveys. Still a possibility of pyrite, but assay of the current core (which has clearly passed close to this conductor) will provide the best clues, short of actual drilling through the conductor. Chromite was stated to be visible, which I see as a positive sign, since chromite is often associated with Nickel. Given the type of rock that the borehole went through at this depth, I would guess that it is more likely than not to be Ni-Cu sulphides.
More info will be available within the next couple of weeks once the DHEM is completed. We will obviously need to recover core from the conductor to confirm exactly what is there, and at what sort of grade.

JP2K - 'Massive" This is possibly being used in its common sense of 'big'. I have not seen massive used in a geological sense to describe PGE deposits. PGE associated with massive sulphides, yes. But this is to distinguish the mineralisation from disseminated or vein deposits. Perhaps we are grasping at straws due to the current lack of updates, and trying to read something into it, when there isn't anything. Speaking of updates...
Captain T. I had estimated the current hole to be completed w/c 8th November, so we still have a few days before assuming there are problems. If there is a problem, hopefully it is caused by hauling up incredibly heavy cores of 100% pure palladium from 950m downhole :-) I would not be surprised to see a composite update next week, which states that : TD has been reached in the current hole 2. DHEM has been successfully completed 3. The DHEM gear is returning back to A2 and 4. the drilling rig is en route to B2.

O/C I was a little curious about that myself - I know of four actual or potential tier 1 deposits on the western edge of a craton. I think it must just be coincidence - if it was related to the Coriolis force, which is a major determinant of continental drift, then you would expect the opposites in the northern & southern hemispheres, which isn't the case.

I've mentioned Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) before, since they have (or had) a close resemblance to KAV. They staked a claim in early 2018, around a strip of ultramafic intrusion at the western edge of the Yilgarn Craton in W. Australia. They hoped it could be prospective for NI-Cu-PGE - it is a very similar geological setting to our KSZ project, also on the western edge of a craton (the Kaapvaal). First drill was just 18 months ago, and they had a lucky hit.

The details are on Proactive:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/965634/chalice-mining-soars-to-new-heights-thanks-to-record-breaking-maiden-mineral-resource-at-gonneville-965634.html

"330 million tonnes of ore, grading 0.94 g/t palladium, platinum and gold (3E), 0.16% nickel, 0.10% copper and 0.016% cobalt (roughly 0.58% nickel equivalent or around 1.6 g/t palladium equivalent).
That’s equal to 10 million ounces of 3E, 530,000 tonnes of nickel, 330,000 tonnes of copper and 53,000 tonnes of cobalt (roughly 1.9 million tonnes nickel equivalent or around 17 million ounces of palladium equivalent)."

Market cap was next to nothing 2 years ago - is now AU$ 3.4 Bn, or £1.9 Bn. Nice! Here's hoping....

A maiden resource was published yesterday,

I would not be very substantially invested here if I did not believe there was enormous upside potential. There is clearly a huge amount of value (whether written in capitals or lower case!) in the prospects currently identified. But to take prospects which may or may not exist, and start to put 'logical' valuations on those, is likely to detract from the perceived credibility and authority of this board.

As an example, the huge volumes of sediment laid down during the Messinian salinity crisis followed by submergence and uplift could provide the ideal setting for vast amounts of hydrocarbons - but no one really knows yet. There are other factors which will only be known if a discovery is made - for example, was the speed of water flow between the Atlantic and Mediterranean, through what is now the Guercif basin, too great to allow for sufficient deposition of organic material?

There is a lot of truth in the counting chickens idiom, I have seen this over and over again in the resources sector. Let's get financed for the first drills, get a discovery, achieve credibility, and then work out the most cost-effective way to explore and prove up the rest of our licence. Then we can start to work out if £72 per share is possible. Just my opinion, I am sure others will differ, life would be very boring if we all agreed.

Actually drilling the KCB at Acacia. Morula, Happy & Banana will come later.

Let's be clear, I hold lots of PRD shares, and I am optimistic, but there is optimism and there is this BB. A few people here need to listen to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dknp2NXmY50&ab_channel=TrueSoulMusic

Dear 12345 (and any other new or infrequent reader of this BB). You should not just read the comments that suggest that things are not going well, but look at who is making them. Click on the user name, look at their posting history. Most of these people make only negative posts, devoid of any real information, and usually support the other negative posters, often in an obviously choreographed manner.

Their appearance on a BB is actually a good sign - it means that someone with deep pockets wants to make a substantial investment in the company, usually just ahead of significant news, and is paying this crew to bring the share price down so that they can get in at a low level, thus maximising their return. Yes, there are real commercial outfits who operate professional troll teams, and they know that the upcoming announcement on funding for next quarter's drilling will begin the transformation of this company.

On the other hand, click on a few of the posters who have made some lengthy, detailed, and fact-filled contributions. You will see from their posting history that they are the real investors in the company who have done their own deep research, and not just trumpeting empty hyperbole. They include to my knowledge: well-known senior business people and investors in O & G, geologists, seismic interpretation professionals, O & G engineers, and merchant banking folks. Many of these have PRD holdings well into seven figures, unlike the trolls, who of course have none.

Lastly, make use of your filter button. I currently have 15 users whom I have removed, since they provide absolutely nothing useful, and take up valuable time. All the best with your investment - Keith (real person).