Member Info for KeithOz

Ella - I don't think we are going to hear from Mike Moles or Hillary Gumbo. BT said that we 'might' hear from them when the new geophysical models were presented. Instead, those models were presented largely by Jeremy Brett in the video embedded in that odd out-of-hours RNS. I assume that this was done as part of the window dressing presented in that RNS, showing that new blood had arrived, and those new appointees were expert in the interpretation of the KSZ. Jeremy had in fact developed one of the geophysics models, and he presented that as an overlay to Hillary's previous model. I was encouraged that the two models were in such close agreement. It is my assumption that going forward we will here a lot more from the new management team, and less from the old guys.

Nic - I think you might have misconstrued my comment. I don't wish the misfortune of a colder than normal winter on anyone, except perhaps on us here in the tropics, where it's too bl88dy hot all year round. Particularly not to the detriment of my Irish friends - when I worked in Dublin, I was made more welcome than anywhere else I have ever been, unfortunately I cannot relate the best stories for fear of being banned.

Quick reply to some of the comments of the last 2 days.
1. Who bought all the shares post June 6th RNS? - lots of us did, and have stated so here. I am sure I am not alone in holding today pretty much the same value of PRD as at the start of June - i.e. 3x the number of shares. My guess is that just on this BB there are several very firm holders close to the 3% declarable level, and 10 - 15 with around 1%. Together with the insiders that makes for a big chunk of the shares in issue. There is also an outside possibility that foreign interests have built up stakes for which they do not believe they need to declare by TR-1.
2. Share price going up on increased volume, always a good sign. With over half the market cap in very sticky hands, this will continue, and likely accelerate on the issue of expected news.
3. Move to AIM will increase likelihood of IIs coming on board, many will not invest in companies with PRD's current listing level.
4. Considering PRD's market positioning, and reactions to comments hoping for a severe winter, Predator is rather an unfortunate name. I understand this is likely to change on AIM admission, any chance of speeding that up? How about a competition for a new name? Fiftyshadesofgreen is sexy and nods to Ireland and away from CO2, but is a bit too long - come on, I know you can do better!

I seem to be agreeing with you a lot this week, MH - just added another chunk at what I hope will prove to be a bargain price.

Metalhead - I agree with all your points. They debated last time if hitting unexpected ultramafic was RNS-able. This time is not needed, don't expect anything until completion of hole and moving of drill to B1.

JP - I'm hoping that they will do a full suite of tests including DHEM on every hole they can, this will enable them to build up as complete a picture as possible, even though I am sure they know to within a couple of metres where B1 conductor is.

On this current hole, (in my opinion only, not stated by KAV) both sets of geophysical models were in close agreement and suggested to me this may be a feeder zone. I am hoping to see the Karoo and Proterozoic gabbros actually in contact at quite a shallow level - perhaps 450-500m. The B1 conductor close to this hole, which of course we are testing next, is actually quite small physically, and unlikely to account for the whole of the strong magnetic anomaly. I am therefore hoping that we will hit a considerable thickness of altered Proterozoic gabbro as in A2, but possibly also with disseminated sulphides. DHEM would help to understand the extent & thickness of any such mineralisation. I stress, this is an educated guess only, maybe I'm just being too optimistic, we'll have to be patient!

BTC: A sign of someone with only 5p to spend?

That should have been TD 950m, sorry!

950m. At 40m/day that is this week, at 30m/day, next week. Conductor B1 is at 550m, so after 2-3 days to move the drill, it should be finished by mid-November.

ijr1. For now , will assume this is a genuine , although rather worrying, question. Since you have posted here, you must have an internet connection, so try this:
www.bluejaymining.com

Just to try and improve the sour atmosphere... Mark Twain was also a very successful private investor. One of my favourites from him, the definition of a mine: "a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it"

Noob. You, me and everyone else here most be completely, totally and absolutely wrong. After all, BigRed who has suddenly appeared tells us that he has "extensive knowledge of helium going back years". So of course we believe him, and no on else can be right, not even the CEO of the only UK listed Helium company and his large group of technical advisers. ...oh, of course, it is possible that he did have a party balloon when he was a kid.

LongTimeLover's last 5 posts show him/her/undecided to be absolutely clueless, and presumably a not very good professional deramper. I have added it to the filtered list, I suggest others do the same.
Perversely, it is a good sign when a bunch of trolls appear, this indicates that a large investor is trying to drive down the price of what they see to be a very attractive investment, so that they can get in cheaply at the expense of people who may be unnerved by all this negative posting. Their intention is also to engage genuine posters in endless cr*p, thus clogging up the board and making it unattractive to new users - best strategy is to ignore.

Block Listing. Boys & Girls: Please stop squabbling over a matter of no consequence, and read this from the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/ukla/pn-907-1.pdf

Jeez, I'm not even in the UK.

Glib - A very welcome change to read a considered and factual post, after all the nonsense on here the last few days. Most of the recent posters seem to be trying to blame DM for not being able to fulfil their get-rich-quick fantasies. I am fully confident that there is Helium in Rukwa which is both accessible and commercial. The last drill attempt was trying to get results cheaply - had it been fully successful, the tone here would have been very different.
I am fully confident that HE1 management have learnt a great deal from recent activities, and those lessons will be applied next year with a very positive outcome.
As for those boasting "my loss is bigger than your loss" all I can say is that I haven't lost anything, since I haven't sold anything. This is exploration, not the Lotto. Patience is required.

Good morning GRH,
I have stuck with the numbers provided by the company, but you are quite right to point out that there are potential upsides, some of which could have massive potential. PG has a tendency to err on the side of caution, and the figures given by PRD and in the last CPR may prove to be conservative. For now, I am happy in the knowledge that the current market valuation is a fraction of that conservative scenario, and am looking forward to the next six months providing us with:
* A JV partner. * A Drilling schedule. *An updated CPR. * 3/4 well results. * Combined flow tests.
I am fully invested here, and unlikely to have any significant spare cash available between now and the end of Q1 2022, so I will just sit and do nothing (re PRD!) for a few months.

BigRed, on 9th October I posted that I had submitted this question for DM to answer on the 19th Oct Webinar:

"David: It is reasonable to assume that shallow traps in the LBF will have a relatively small, and probably uneconomic amount of Helium, since the reservoir beds are thin, pinch out laterally, and being shallow have a low overburden pressure and thus less gas. Would it not make more sense to use our limited financial resource to concentrate on the deeper, thicker and more extensive reservoirs already identified as at Tai? Of course, this time with a more capable drill. We shareholders originally signed up for 3 or 4 well programme testing different trap styles, but as per the CPR those traps were all likely to contain commercial quantities of Helium."

You may be the most experienced O & G person on earth, but you still have less Helium experience than DM. Before you make demands for his sacking, would it not be more reasonable to listen to what he has to say? Or do you follow the principle of "guilty until proven innocent"?

I've revisited the last presentation, for I think the 4th time! It may be worthwhile taking another look at slides 8, 9 & 12, and making sure that we understand the potential value of PRD just in the near-term Morocco assets. Please bear with me while I string together the different bits of information.

Slide 8, bottom right, shows 2 very interesting numbers – an NPV10 of $215M, which is for the net to PRD of 295 BCF (75% of the gross 396BCF to the right, red section of bar chart) which represents the best case (i.e. most likely, NOT the most optimistic case) for the combined output of MOU-1, 4 & 5. Above the red 396BCF bar section is a 426BCF number, purple bar. That represents best case for MOU-2,3,7 & 8, as indicated on Slide 12, as well as including the deeper Hoot Sands in MOU-4 & 5 shown in yellow at the top of slide 9. Multiply that by 75%, and you get 320 BCF net to PRD. So the NPV10 for all the MOU numbered prospects is around $450M.

Remember, an NPV is what a project is worth TODAY, if all goes to plan, and assumes cost of money at 10% pa, and includes all capital and production costs. Our current market cap in USD is $22.6M (£16.5M market cap at USD:GBP exchange rate of 1.37), and with near enough 300M shares in issue, current share price of 5.6p, or 7.7c.

So the NPV10 above of $215M is worth $0.72c, or 52p per share.
The NPV10 above of $450M is worth $1.50, or £1.09p per share.

These are not values for some far-off concept - they are for a project that is planned to be producing gas at the end of next year.

Looking good? We're not finished yet – I did say bear with me! Neither of these numbers include the newly-revealed MOU-NE. There it is on the right of Slide 9. It's huge -105 km2, over 200m of potential carbonate reservoir. The MOU-1,4 & 5 prospect has a total area of (only!) around 35km2. Anyone want to take a guess at how many BCF (or even TCF) are hiding in MOU-NE? Or its value?

Of course, it's only a very small part of the 7000+ km2 Guercif licence. As GRH has stated several times, at the current share price this is just option money. Please remember to do your own sums - I have frequently been known to be wrong, occasionally very wrong :-(

The FT has a story today that Harland & Wolff will have a 500M m3 gas storage facility approved in NI in the next few weeks, and how this will benefit the UK situation after the closure of Rough. What they have missed is under the terms of the All Ireland Energy Market, the ROI has preferential access over mainland UK. 500M m3 is equal to around 10% of ROI's annual gas usage, but 0.6% of the UK's. I can see a tussle coming up over who gets the gas, and optimistic assumptions by ROI politicians that they have been given a 'get out of jail free' card. If the facility is approved, it will likely take 3 years to become operational.

Findme, I have had such involvement, and am in agreement with you, but not relevant here since PRD have no intention of drilling before January. But if you have ever had any involvement in logistics, you will know getting anything flown from one country to another, including customs clearance, is heavily impacted by the holiday season. This year will be worse than normal since flights/ships/containers/crew are in short supply, and a potential tidal wave will be unleashed of people desperate to travel for the first time in two years. And if you have ever been to Morocco during Ramadan, as I have, you will know it is not fun trying to get anything done during daylight hours.