Member Info for KeithOz

Purdey - I'm not sure where or when I heard of Tipps previously, maybe he was still working with the government and liaising with KAV, but it's a name you remember. As for Jeremy Brett, he has been working as an independent contractor for KAV for a long time, since he is an acknowledged expert on the KSZ. In the video yesterday where he and BT present, it is mentioned that he has been working with KAV for 6 months, but I'm not sure if that is as an employee or a consultant.

Ah, so now we have one of a group of apparently coordinated derampers, who have never once contributed a single piece of useful or original information, accusing those who DO contribute constructive information of being part of a ramping collective. The locations, occupations and relevant experiences of all your alleged ramping cabal - in some cases their actual identities - have been declared. Whereas you hide behind your keyboard (or under your troll bridge) and all you are capable of is to blame them for your inability to do your own research and make your own investment decisions. Do go away and grow up.

Should also point out that since the MOD sale, the copper price has doubled.

Sorry, should have made the acquisition chain more accurate: Sandfire acquired MOD, which owned A4, in which MTR had a significant stake and still has involvement via Sandfire shares and a 2% NSR. I know someone will ask, Sandfire paid $A167M, about £90M at today's exchange rate, about 3.5 x KAV's current market cap - for a smaller project than any of our KCB holdings. Any of you clever journos preparing a piece on KAV for this weekend - feel free to include this little sweetener.

That was a rather unusual RNS:
1. It was after hours
2. It gave details of previously announced staff recruitment
3. It repeated results announced a few days ago
4. It repeated what is going to happen over the next couple of months
5. It had an embedded video link.
So what's up, Doc? My guess is that this was aimed at softening up institutional investors and prodding market commentators. It is saying, Hey, we're not just another microcap mining wannabe - we've got top guys working on an exciting project, with a major drill just coming up. The video shows one of those top guys, who explains why they failed to find anything at this obvious massive target 15 years ago, and how latest technology is being used this time to improve the chances. Plus the carefully scripted "I have to be careful what I say..." lol.
I expect to see a write up or two in the weekend newspapers.

With all the excitement at the KSZ, let's not forget our KCB assets. Just a reminder, Metal Tiger sold A4 (much smaller than our Morula) to Sandfire. To give an idea of how our assets could develop, here is the latest on A4, together with comments from Metal Tiger, who retain a 2% NSR. Source: Proactive.
"Sandfire has completed a maiden probable ore reserve for the deposit comprising 114,000 tonnes of contained copper and 5.7mln ounces of contained silver (with 9.7mln tonnes with 1.2% copper and 18 grams per tonne silver). It means that some 85% of the deposit’s contained copper is now classified as reserves and confirms the deposit as a high-grade source of additional ore feed for the Motheo copper mine, around 8 kilometres away."
Michael McNeilly, chief executive of Metal Tiger, said "Given the speed from discovery of A4 in early Q1 2020 to today we remain confident that Sandfire will continue to deliver key milestones at a quick pace".
and then...
“Exploration, especially resource drill outs in the KCB are not budget light affairs so the fact that Sandfire are committed to continuing significant drilling both in the near-mine area but also over the wider Kalahari Copperbelt is why I believe the Kalahari Copperbelt will emerge as a significant production hub in the medium term.”

Looks to me that will need partner(s) with deep pockets to develop KAV's various KCB interests, unless of course we get so much from a deal with the KSZ that our pockets become deep (and full!).

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/960755/kavango-resources--upside-potential-at-ksz-in-botswana-and-strategy-plan-to-accelerate-progress-960755.html

Taff - You are not going nuts, you are correct in your assumption that we are not doing seismic over someone else's area!

While he is talking over Slide 7, PG says that after obtaining an Exploitation Concession for the MOU-4 & 5 areas, they will do a step out well to MOU-1 and 400km2 3D seismic. At 16.10 the sound distorts, but I think he is saying "which may be to the west of the planned development area and exploitation concession, depending on how we see MOU-4 & 5 delivering in terms of their potential". 400km2 is only 20km x 20km, or roughly the assumed area of the fan. We have a very large licence area, you would have to go a very long way to the west to get into the ConocoPhillips area.
That the planned 3D is in our area is confirmed by the table on slide 8, which shows the 400km2 seismic in the same row as the MOU-1 step-out well. My conclusion is that this is nothing to do with any agreement with CP.

Re interest from majors. Meetings started a long time ago. Everyone is well aware of what KAV are up to, they are just waiting on assays. Take a look at this Ben Turney Shares Magazine interview from June 25th. At 12.55 he shows un underside view of A2, and says "I gave a presentation recently to a large firm, one of their main geologists was in there and we had a bit of a moment when we pulled this slide up, a bit of an unguarded moment, and his exact reaction was 'wow, look at that' '
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/kavango-resources-kav-ben-turney-executive-director-3

Next day, he shows the same slide in a Stockbox video, at 18.25 says "we've had comments from people who really do know what they're talking about, I've got to be a bit careful about what I say here" - an interesting change, maybe someone has pointed out the sensitivity of his earlier statement!
https://youtu.be/U39CTDnP-54

Ella/F79.
I should probably confirm that the second part of my post is purely speculative - I really don't know what we have, and I suspect that Mike & Hillary can't be sure either at this stage.
For A2-1, there are several possibilities:
1. TDEM hasn't been as accurate as hoped for, and they have missed the target.
2. A reading in the low 000s Siemens may be high grade disseminated sulphides rather than massive sulphides, but not necessarily Ni & Cu sulphides.
3. TDEM may actually have located a deeper target (not necessarily an orebody). With this possibility, I found it interesting that Ben tweeted "Hitting ultramafic rocks & chalcopyrite (#copper sulphide) in the Proterozoic at 650m is a game-changer for the #KSZ. The historic assumption had been potential mineralized zones would be too deep to find targets with remote sensing tech" implying that remote-sensing tech had actually found the target, not accidental drilling. However, I think it is very unlikely that they can re-enter what was a problematic hole, they would need to start over.
4. They do not want to, or can not for reasons of commercial confidentiality, reveal what was found re "sulphides" in A2-

Next steps. They clearly want to get on with B-2, and I would be very surprised if that is not next. However, clearly having TWO sets of prospective mineralisation is causing re-evaluation of plans - another Ben tweet "Adapt or die in this game. Metals exploration is high risk and can take many unexpected turns. We can’t wait to see what happens next"
Seriously, no one knows if or how the plans will change. We now appear to have twice the opportunities, for a 10% increase in the market cap. Crazy. Just hold tight & hang on.
Sandfire. They are NOT a major player. Their current interest & expertise is in sedimentary Cu, NOT magmatic derived NI-Cu-PGE. They may be a potential partner for the KCB, but not the KSZ. For the KSZ, I would put my money on Anglo-American, particularly if KAV find a lot of PGEs, A-A are the majority shareholder in Anglo-American Platinum (formerly Amplats), and of course have major interests in Cu & Ni. Glencore or BHP would be next on the list.
I got the impression from Ben that the Mike Moles presentation, probably with Hillary, is maybe week after next. Makes sense, they will have finished A2-2, and decided on where to go next, and have had time to knock up some slides.
Enjoy the Q & A with Ben, it is 3.00am my time, and all the questions I would want to ask are price-sensitive, so he could not answer :-)

F79 - simple answer is I don't if there is or where is the A2 orebody, we will find out sooner or later. PLease note the end of yesterday's RNS "The Company advises shareholders that thorough analysis is required of all core samples retrieved from Hole TA2DD002, before any conclusions can be drawn as to what has been encountered so far. This analysis will include (but not necessarily be limited to) assay testing and whole rock analysis." Applies to both formations, both holes.

Part 2.
A2-2 – We have a 2nd shot at the Karoo, so can appraise the continuity and differences over a distance of 1km. Less sulphide blebs, further away from a potential orebody. We also have our first look at the Tshane. It is very possible that both the Tshane and Karoo magmas have intruded through the same feeder zone. If so, there will have been multiple magma washes, increasing the likelihood of large amounts of metal sulphides. The Tshane appears to be F'd up, to use Mr Moles' technical terminology – apparently by migration of magmatic fluids, possibly from the later Karoo age events, maybe by some additional event we don't yet know about. That's good, since magmatic fluids push minerals through the rocks as they migrate, and deposit them as they cool. Also, there are thick zones (zoneS – plural !) of pegmatite, within other coarse grained rocks. This is very good news, since it means that the magma has cooled very slowly (pegmatites have very big crystals, which only form slowly out of the melt). Slow cooling magma allows time for liquid metal sulphides to coalesce, and being dense, accumulate in pools which then solidify into orebodies. Pegamatites are often a source of exotic minerals, which could be a bonus to the Ni-Cu-PGE that we are hoping for. Chromite has been spotted, which is often associated with Ni.
What we don't know yet.
1. The mineral concentrations in either series, nor the positions of any obvious orebodies – but B2-2 at 8200S might just be the ultimate 'proof of concept'.
2. How deep the Tshane goes – orebodies are likely to be at the base of the formation, so may be beyond the limits of easy detection and/or mining. Noril'sk was found a long time ago because of surface outcrop, but is currently mined to around 1500m.
3. If we do find an economic deposit, are they going to occur all over our licence areas?
4. Clearly KAV can not evaluate or develop such a vast project on its own. Ben has said multiple times that majors will be involved shortly - is this a sale / auction or a JV?

Part 1.
Geology is a bit like a secondhand jigsaw puzzle – you need to get an idea of the whole picture, but you don't have all the pieces. It's going to be at least 3 months, possibly not until early next year, before Messrs Moles & Gumbo get enough pieces to have a good idea of what the picture looks like. Since we are all too impatient, let's have a look at the pieces that have been revealed so far.

What we already knew.
The KSZ is a series of massive crustal cracks to one side of an ancient craton. There have been 2 major intrusions of potentially mineral-bearing magma – the Proterozoic (Tshane) 1Ga and the Karoo 180Ma. The Karoo is known to be related to a magma plume from beneath the Kaapvaal Craton, we're not so sure about the origin of the Tshane. Both sets of magma have been intruded through sulphur-rich overlying sediments (Transvaal and Olifantshoek ironstones for the Tshane, Kalahari coal beds for the Karoo).
Systems such as this elsewhere (Noril'sk, Voisey's Bay) are associated with Ni-Cu-PGE deposits, where the resulting sulphur saturation vacuums up the contained metals, and binds them as sulphides. If the magma flows recur, the more chance there is of sulphide deposits forming, since fresh supplies of magmatic metals are washed through the system. The longer the magma has to cool, the greater chance of finding concentrated orebodies.
What we have discovered with the A2 boreholes.
A2-1 – there are indeed sulphides present in the Karoo, at relatively shallow levels. If sulphides are present as visible blebs, then it is likely that a significant massive sulphide orebody is close by. Whatever has been seen, it is interesting enough to drill a 2nd hole in the same area, and twin the future holes as well, even though this means delaying the exciting KCB drilling.

Hmm. Suggest you have a good hard look at MSMN's record of achieving a return on the long and varied list of assets they have invested in over the years, and the sp volatility. Having said that, there is certainly He at a decent %age in the Amadeus Basin.

Wow, things have really got stirred up today. I'm off to bed. Last thought - could the highly experienced and knowledgeable NH please interpret the last 5 charts of this week's presentation for us? The ones with the MOU-1 logs. No, didn't think he/she/it had a clue.

Going back to GRH's origination of this thread, my apologies for making it a little less cryptic :-)

Shell bought Cove's stake in Ruvuma for £1 Bn. PRD market cap is £15 M
It was offshore. PRD is onshore
It was Mozambique - it's a war zone ffs. PRD is Morocco - I've been there for business & holidays and would happily go again.
Cove had 8.5%. PRD has 75%
2012 gas price was about USD 3 per MM BTU, it is currently 5.4 and rising fast.
The Ruvuma licence had about 30 Tn cu ft gas. PRD may have 25Tn??

Make your own adjustments to the last line and do the maths, GRH obviously has.

In fairness, Sam Wahab only had the infamous July 6th RNS to go on. I would love to know his opinion now, after the release of two further less opaque RNSs, and the highly unusual release (as the appendices to this week's presentation) of the detailed well logs from MOU-1, especially the mud log data, which would indicate a higher than expected pressure. Highly pressured systems are rarely uneconomic.

Sefton is quite correct re. lack of independent research. It may be of interest to readers that on July 6th this year, Sam Wahab, O & G analyst at SP Angel, who imo knows his stuff, published a brief note on PRD. It said that "MOU-1 had been deemed uncommercial" (by whom??), but ...
"Our take: Whilst the gas shows recorded appear to be uncommercial at this location, the Company will have gained crucial sub-surface thermogenic gas migration data to support drilling at MOU-4. PRD’s share price is currently down c.30% on the news which could represent a compelling buying opportunity ahead of further drilling activity this year in our view."

At the time the share price was 9.1p - and that presented a "compelling buying opportunity". I managed to pick up another fat load at sub 5p first thing this morning, but nobody compelled me, I used my own judgement.

Ben said that Mike Moles / Hillary Gumbo will be presenting some more technical stuff in the next couple of weeks, including an update on the second round of TDEM from Target B. Will be interesting to hear their take on the opportunity for economic deposits from the Proterozoic - this is a very different set up to the KSZ story to date. The current theory is that the Karoo age gabbros have intruded and mixed with high-sulphur sediments, thus precipitating pools of concentrated metal sulphides. The Proterozoic intrusions were not through high-sulphur sediments (as far as I am aware), so any mineralisation would be of a different nature. Maybe the interest is in using changes in mineral assemblages to point the way to feeder zones, which are more likely to have concentrated mineral deposits. More we can't tell at this stage, I'm afraid everything else is guesswork until we here from the geos on the ground.

Ella - I assume you mean DHEM. I expect they will still do this, particularly around 300m at the level of the A2 conductor. First they have to finish drilling and remove the drill string- in the Stockbox interview Ben said they may go to 1000m, currently they are around 700m.