Some observations on the new CPR14 Jan 2022 00:34
Time line.
p5 states that MOU-1 testing will be in Q2 2022. This is further slippage. Sept 20 presentation appendix showed February to March, December update said as early as possible in 2022. Bearing in mind that Ramadan takes up all of April, from my experience in Morocco this can seriously slow things down and complicate matters, so my guess is that MOU-1 test will now be May and June.
Volumetrics
I expected a larger volume of contingent resources, as also did many others on this board over the last couple of weeks. The new CPR mentions in several places that the MOU-4 fan and the Anchois fan are stratigraphically analogous . It would seem that GIIP has been estimated by using the MOU-4 area, multiplied by factors derived from Anchois. This is both positive and negative. The big negative is that the previous Guercif CPR used a gas expansion factor of 300, the new (Anchois) GEF is 140, giving less than half the volume of gas for MOU-4 (p.27). The net pay is assumed to be 65 feet, again based on Anchois (p.27 again) - I was expecting more, considering the potential thickness indicated by MOU-4 seismic data.
On the positive side, on p.25 the work by Chin & Wallace (2020) on Anchois-1 is mentioned, and used to project volumetrics at MOU-4. Notably, they found porosity of 25% and permeability > 1 Darcy. 66% gas charge is assumed. Recalling GRH's famous equation of charge x porosity x permeability, this looks highly positive.
I would agree with numerous other contributors today that MOU-4 and in particular MOU-NE are worth a lot of money, and obviously the closer to development the greater their value. Unfortunately, it would also seem that potential funders want to see some gas flow before investing, to PG's obvious frustration. Personally I would prefer some minor dilution by way of a capital raise now, with the promise of a lot of gas & oil that remains 100% PRD, rather than give away half (or all) in some kind of buyout. Imo PD needs to come off the fence and make a decision.