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Avacta is like going to Tesco and buying Mr Muscle, vs paying a sub contractor to come and deep clean your oven.
If you want your answer as to why the market cap is double NCYT then look at the value of the markets they're both in.
I'm heavily in Avacta, and reluctant to trade any more of these Covid stocks. It really does have the feel of buying BTC when it was $15k a few years back.
I'm not convinced covid will even be around at the end of the year, so some of these valuations (inc Avacta) could be way off the mark, and due a huge re-trace. That being said, maybe Covid will prevail. Can anybody here point me in the direction of some decent valuation analysis for NCYT? I've done my own for Avacta having followed the company for a few years, but I'm uninformed on NCYT.
Avacta won't ever make £10 profit per test. The current high end is a pointless scenario.
I would suggest recreating the L/M/H scenarios with £1/£2/£4, and then applying your risk factor.
I haven't read through all the responses but production capabilities will likely be a limiting factors also, and we should factor in the revenue from the other product streams. Will get the spready out and produce some mkt cap/sp numbers based on the info in this thread this eve for comparison.
@Cautious a productive and constructive thread, thanks
That's fair point, I thought i posted that earlier. I got back in on the 24th.
Regardless, the point of the post was to say it will rise but with volatility, so be careful hopping in and out.
@Minimil, I liken the posters on these boards to the south park episode 'Margaritaville' (S13 Ep 3 if interested). Myles is thy economy, and Green and his goonies are the central bank using headless chickens to predict the share price.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvYvQeNeq3A
"when will the next opportunity be to invest in a company which is due to have a product most of the world population is going to be buying"
This really is the question isn't it. The biggest risk here isn't with the product, or competition, it's quite simply that the market may vanish.
I believe that even if COVID isn't as bad as first feared, there will still be a market for test kits, particularly in UK/Europe where workplace safety standards are extremely high. If we had some concrete data showing COVID to be as bad as feared, the SP would already be between £2-3. I don't think anybody doubts the product will hit the market, it's just what market will it hit.
Good thing about Avacata - even if the test kit is a flop, you get a second bite at the cherry with the Cancer treatments.