focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Anyone who's got the time to look through the posting history of multiple posters on this board so he can accuse them of being a troll, clearly isn't doing anything of any value to anyone with their time. How about you put some of that energy into forming some opinions on your investments that might help people. Moron.
@Global they're EMI share options (employee management incentive). Typically vest over a period (often 3 years), then you can exercise within x months. Looks like some of the employees cashing in on their hard work.
Green you you offer nothing other than petty remarks, no insight and no useful analysis, so if you don't think I'm invested and don't want to communicate with me then it's really no loss to myself or anyone else for that matter.
Great to see you concerned about your fellow investors Green23. I missed 80p but I did manage to get back in at 84p.
Looks like some of my valuation methodology is coming to fruition - £2-3 here we come. I expect more news on partners next week, followed by update from Cytiva on the prototype. Then a decision point for many of us if we want to ride the order risk, or exit with a tidy profit.
Although for you Green, I suppose you'll just see how the pump is feeling, or consult your friends over at Bitcoin for investment decision rationale ;)
Taking another stab at the current valuation, and where this can go from COVID.
Assumptions:
- Fair value before COVID - £100m
- COVID testing requirements constant for 6 months minimum, 12 months maximum
- Successful vaccine eventually replace need for mass testing in 12 months
- Only adults tested
- 5% royalty for AVACTA - https://www.morse.law/news/setting-values-and-royalty-rates
- Additional market cap for covid = 2x 12 month earnings (based on the value of cash generated + derisking of future operations from this)
Variables:
- % of adult population tested
- % market share
- Cost per test
- Tests per adult
The case for £3:
- 7.7bn world population
- 3.85bn adults for testing
- 30% of adults regularly tested globally
- 1 test per week per adult = 26 tests min, 52 tests max
- Cost per test £2
- 10% market share
= £300m earning in 6 months or £600m in 12 months
Taking £300m earnings, x 2 = £600m + £100m pre-covid valuation = £700m valuation or c. £3.3 per share
Seem reasonable if Cytiva get the test strip working - the case for £3?
We will never be privy to the terms of the details. As a few mentioned here, it makes absolutely no sense to make those public. Nothing to gain all to lose in terms of negotiation power.
You will get order numbers if lucky, but if managed appropriately never royalty terms.
Jones:
"Only a few posters here need the potential explained to them, the ones that don't bought and just held as opposed to selling like you did"
"Excellent work Ken, not many days to wait now until news hopefully puts a rocket up the sp, should be worth the wait!"
"Our CEO has already stated that the test works. Research is your friend when it comes to choosing a company to invest in."
"RNS's start hitting this week otherwise they might have to raise the sp to the £7-£10 + range!"
"just imagine where the sp will go once news starts to flow officially (I have imagined and I see £5 + minimum!)"
"SP in 12 Months time = £50 +"
"multiple ID's sent here by a troll/deramping crew boss, not even good deramping efforts, too transparent, must try harder, all upset"
"I think when we look back in 12-18 months it may well be that 10-20 bags will be shown to have been too conservative"
"Either way any T/O will be in the billions, the only question is how many billions"
"Yes I agree, hopefully the co can hold off any T/O approach until the sp is at least £10 "
Just a selection of your comical post for everyone to sit back and enjoy ;)
You probably need to divide that sales price by 10. You won't be getting the high-end clear blue prego test, probably something more like this..
https://www.amazon.co.uk/15-Ultra-Early-Pregnancy-earlier/dp/B0026RQ75W
So £250m revenue..?
@Jones there's nothing particularly crazy about the numbers I've put in there, they're all quite realistic. If you have nothing to add other than sarcy comments, best not to add at all. Perhaps you should go watch Bambi again.
Reading Myles latest (be warned, he posts helpful links, but I don't quite hold his analysis in as high regard as some of you seem to on here - I assume most of you just looked at the number of pages as opposed to the content)..
He's saying the £200m valuation is nonsensical and absurd. Let's just walk through it (this isn't a deramp or ramp, looking for honest critique here before the usual jump on me).
From Myles:
- Total addressable market in 100s of $Bns - let's assume $100bn
- If Avacta gains a very healthy 25% of that market share - $25bn
- Earnings from $25bn of sales - $5bn
- Avacta takes 15% royalty - $750m
- 50% chance of success - $375m (or £300m).
This doesn't even take into account that $100bn market share is based on tests that cost 100s of dollars, not $10.
Based on COVID alone, I don't see how this share is absurdly undervalued - views?
FYI - I'm in this for the long run for the cancer misiles, this is a COVID hype question.