Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
...and some research about the company and its directors, and their other business interests and history :-)
A tender (deadline 2 days time) clearly stating Lateral Flow Tests...
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W46/738590726
To succeed in the mass population and regular healthcare worker testing for high viral loading, with secondary confirmation with PCR... Novacyt would seem a very competitive option.
For LFTs there are many developers/suppliers in UK now - the initial supply was imported and transported back to UK rapidly. I would hope UK Plc would want to support UK BioTech for longer-term resilience.
Invested here - have been for >6 months. Low hold and patience. Expected some concrete vaccine news to have a positive effect. Maybe early 2021.
I'm not sure about this news... it seems a little preliminary, if not premature.
Will the rise hold? Will the SP re-stabilise? Has anything else changed - other than sentiment?
I saw similar unusual activity (both up and down) in other, unconnected shares values.
It all seemed rather coordinated and simultaneous... like there was a considered strategy.
Happy to see solid rise and support for the new price... slight reservations.
GLA
Vaccine efficacy is generally expressed as a proportionate reduction in disease attack rate between unvaccinated and vaccinated [in the most favourable conditions]. The formula is VE = ARU - ARV / ARU x 100 (%)
From the figures we have we can estimate 1/2 the trial participants got the vaccine and 1/2 got the placebo.
To show a VE of >90% in 94 positives out of 38,955 participants this would represent 86 - 8 / 86 x 100%.
So the infection rate in the placebo would have been around 0.44% vs. vaccine group 0.041%.
Assuming both groups were exposed equally these figures would suggest participants only had a 1 in 227 chance of getting symptomatic COVID-19 even without the two vaccine doses, and ten times less likely (1 in 2,439) with them... in that first week.
A recent week of positive cases in UK stands at around 0.26% of the UK population (1 in 378) of which not all will be symptomatic [to compare to trial methodology] - up to 20% (1 in 5) - so this reduces the number down to 1 in 1,890. The vaccine, according to these very preliminary figures, might therefore adjust your odds from 1 in 1,890 to 1 in 2,439; an actual reduction of 30% or so but apparently still very unlikely and needing to vaccinate almost 2,000 to prevent one symptomatic infection. Lots more questions to answer as more data becomes available.
One way or another - if effective - this or other vaccine candidates could represent a key element of the protection of potentially the most susceptible members of our communities. Lets hope so :-)
Exactly but not so much 'fake' news more that it was very over-stated. Pfizer/BioNTech really should have displayed a little more care in presenting the facts instead of declaring (very early) interim results as being so significant.
I'd love there to be a vaccine at some point, effectively trialled and evidenced and safe. It would be a game-changer and restore near-normality to so many [*in those parts of the world that can afford it*] and ease the suffering and harm on so many levels. I just think the market, and some media, reaction to this has been exploited IMO.
There is no way such a coordinated and simultaneous, if not illogical, share price fluctuation could have happened without some element of strategy/predetermination. The MM's had this planned - the slightest sniff of a potentially effective vaccine would be jumped upon as a chance to manipulate multiple shares... look at IAG, or BP, or Cineworld even. You can't say that the effect of a vaccine, however good the results might look, would immediately reverse the fortunes of those companies...? Sentiment goes a long way. But not that far. If a reversal/gap fill occurs in the next few days then I won't be surprised. But I will be disappointed if investors may have been manipulated and the potentially good news has been warped for greed.
MM strategy was clear... already predetermined and activated at the merest sniff of a COVID vaccine. Widespread simultaneous and non-sensical SP fluctuations. Cineworld?... now, come on, someone took it too far.
Pfizer news massively over-blown. A lot of time left to identify the true impact. Of course its great news - means the virus may not be completely insurmountable - but to have this much effect??... nah, I don't buy it.
Chill. Wait.
Nothing else has changed... testing will be needed more than ever (note the recent guidance from NHSE regarding regular home-testing for NHS workers).
Sentiment. Opportunism. Illogical.
MM's stuck with Cineworld want to offload - so here's a great and convincing 'excuse'... OH suddenly a vaccine is going to open all the cinemas and remove that debt... erm... NO. But some would have bought into the hype. Prices will fall back into line by the end of the week.
As for all the shares which tanked... how many stop losses were triggered and how many good shares have been hoovered up (like Novacyt) just to be sold back to us for more again later?
Smart!... the House always wins.
...how could you even begin to suggest that the MM's might have had a strategy for a strong-ish COVID-19 vaccine announcement?!?!?... ;-) ;-)
Is it any wonder that immediately on the news that many specific shares dropped or rose in value at 11:40... that's not market forces surely that's market maker forces at play.
E.g.
AIG... a more attractive proposition has just doubled its flights, previously supported around 105-110 suddenly up to 140, settled at 130.
BP... suddenly selling more fuel/oil - from 200-205 to 230.
Novacyt... plop, 1050-1100 down to 700... suddenly the company is worth 35% less?
Moderna... (vaccine candidate at Ph.III) opened at 78 from 72.45 yesterday (US market)
AstraZeneca... hang on... has a vaccine candidate coming soon, probable announcements to follow... 8300 from 8473 yesterday... why would they want to let this ride too high - there is profit to be made here!!
The MM's must have had a strategy - had selected and analysed the risers and fallers - that's what they're so good at!
The rampers/de-rampers would have facilitated on ****ter and BaceFook etc etc
Every investor will want to buy on these rises, sell on the falls.
The MM's will lap it all up... Nom Nom Nom... the markets were dry and stale before... NOW! Look at all that lovely liquidity!
We shouldn't play their games... ride it out a few days and let the market fall back into place. Remember what Warren Buffett says about impatience. IMO.
GLA! Stay Safe and Well!
I think everyone needs to CHILL! :-)
The Pfizer/BioNTech results while encouraging, positive and full of hope are premature at best. I honestly think this was a little irresponsible of Pfizer despite perhaps well-meaning but worryingly unscientific (and I invested in them both months ago so there's no FOMO/sour grapes). The results are interim efficacy analysis and way too early to commend for long-term protection.
This is most like the study design: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728
It would suggest the interim data is literally from the first moment they could report sufficient numbers of positive cases 7 days from the 2nd dose... in the days and weeks to come some of the participants could well develop COVID-19, and with so few out of 40,000 (0.2% or thereabouts) actually contracting the disease it is far too soon to extrapolate the figures to a general population. There is no report of whether any of these patients were symptomatic, or how severely affected. There is no comparison data regarding placebo vs. active therapy. The NNT could be massively high... to stop 1 infection it could take 1000 vaccine administrations (@2 per person) with no promise on how long this will last for.
I'm as happy as anyone that progress has been made, lives may be saved and there is a hope for a return to near-normality in the (near) future. I'd also urge anyone panicking about their shares in Novacyt, or other BioTech/Pharma not too sell themselves short. I think we have to be patient and wait and see how this, and many similar studies in many more vaccine candidates, progresses. I think the market reaction is over-blown and (possibly) opportunistic - see how many well-performing and fair valued shares suddenly dropped their SP in response, without any real reason. Similarly, are airlines suddenly going to fly to more destinations? Are all other drug therapies and testing requirements suddenly null and void? Answer: NO.
The PPE, testing, therapeutics and everything else will still be needed in the short-medium even possibly longer-term. If anything, maybe this is a position that some might like to invest in Novacyt now...?...Sure- invest in airlines or oil or whatever else too. Probably all good investments I imagine. Not my particular thing.
Stay safe and well all!
(All IMO)
Agree... this mask HAS potential but won't be for an NHS or similar healthcare provider market UNLESS it can be shown to either reduce cost without risk of harm to the wearer/others and/or an improved level of protection. You still need an FFP3 for potential aerosol-generating activity in the clinical setting. The added value may be from showing that - after time - this continues to provide a high level of protection than a standard surgical mask would. E.g. through humidity resistance, resilience of the material, etc.
...or... if it looks too good to be true...(?) ;-)
...and... "BPPM was owned by the parties who make up AP Mining *before* it was owned by Vast."
My apologies - I had mistakenly referred to AP as the "CEO" he was in fact the President and Executive Director of the Company's Romanian subsidiary African Consolidated Resources Srl. Hereby corrected.
...from the Dec 2014 reference:
"An 85 per cent. equity interest in Mineral Mining is beneficially owned by AFCR's Romanian senior management and other AFCR group employees, led by the President and Executive Director of the Company's Romanian subsidiary African Consolidated Resources Srl ("AFCR Romania"), Mr. Andrew Prelea (the "AP Group"). The members of the AP Group include, inter alios, Mr. Andrew Prelea (50 per cent. beneficial interest), Mr. Mike Kellow, a former Director of the Company and currently director of exploration for AFCR (30 per cent. beneficial interest) and Mr. Roy Tucker, Finance Director of the Company (10 Per cent. beneficial interest). The shares of Mineral Mining are currently registered in the name of AFCR Romania which holds them on trust for the AP Group.
The Company has an option to acquire 68 per cent. of Mineral Mining, leaving the AP Group interested in 17 per cent of the equity. It is the Board's opinion that the remaining 15 per cent. of the equity of Mineral Mining, which will initially be retained by Mr. Dong Quosheng and Mr. Ni Jin Ming its former owners (the "Former Owners"), could be acquired in the future, on favourable terms and in the same ratio of ownership between AFCR and the AP Group as in the Proposed Acquisition.
Due to the way in which the AP Group has brought the opportunity to the Company, initially funding diligence work when AFCR had decided that it did not wish to pursue the Proposed Acquisition, it will neither be required to fund the acquisition of its interest in Mineral Mining, nor the initial development costs "
Which sounds reasonable... AP Gp discovered the opportunity, presented the Option for VAST Resources to buy. Mineral Mining owned 100% BBPM. All creditors (a moderate sum) were to be repaid by the newly renamed company. It sounds like a fair deal.
My only question was about the relationship between VAST and APMG at the beginning, when this deal was first struck. It is not a negative or challenging comment about either the company or its value or potential.
I indeed researched to a level I thought represented due diligence when I invested in VAST earlier this year. I feel that since then I must have only scratched the surface. Hence the questions. Of course I read the RNS. But I hadn't dug into the background detail as much as I have since. And, of course I see the positives of this deal however I also see the potential risks. I am still learning about this kind of investing - but found your reply patronising and unnecessarily defensive.
Also, JIMO
Sandy, thank you. You have me at a disadvantage. I am much better informed now!
Alas I have only relied upon evidence within the documentation or filed items freely available via some simple searches.
No doubt there is a very complex structure with overarching VAST Resources PLC and its subsidiaries... I am not sufficiently business-minded to fully understand it.
You stated: "APMG owned the mine before Vast."... OK...
APMG Ltd is an active PLC registered at Nettlestead Place, Maidstone, Kent, England, ME18 5HA and was incorporated on 16 Feb 2016 by AP, Roy Tucker and Valentia Dobrota with an initial value of £100.
VAST Resources is an active PLC that was incorporated on 05 April 2005, originally registered as "African Consolidated Resources PLC" at Nettlestead Place, ME18 5HA by Roy Tucker with an initial value of £10mln.
VAST is reported to have acquired an 80% interest in Mineral Mining SA (at the time in insolvency) including the Baita Plai mine (previously known as "Baita Bihor") for 1.22mln Euro.
As stated in the Exercise of option note 24 March 2015:
"As announced on 10 December 2014, Mineral Mining is subject to insolvency proceedings...
An option granted to the Company to acquire a 68% interest in the issued share capital of Mineral Mining was announced on 10 December 2014 which was subsequently increased to an option to acquire an 80% interest in the issued share capital of Mineral Mining, as announced on 25 February 2015.
Prior to exercise of the Option, 100% of the issued share capital of Mineral Mining was beneficially owned by the AP Group. The members of the AP Group are: Andrew Prelea, President and Executive Director of Vast Romania (50% beneficial interest in the AP Group), Michael Kellow, former director of the Company and current Director of Exploration for the Company (30% beneficial interest in the AP Group), and Roy Tucker, Finance Director of the Company (10% beneficial interest in the AP Group); other senior managers in Vast Romania (10% beneficial interest in the AP Group). The shares of Mineral Mining have been registered in the name of Vast Romania which has held them on trust for the AP Group.
As a result of the Merger, Baita Bihor will be wholly owned by Vast Romania. In order to reflect that the AP Group retain a 20% residual interest in Baita Bihor, Vast Romania will issue new ordinary shares in Vast Romania to the AP Group such that Vast Romania becomes owned 80% by the Company and 20% by the AP Group. It is the intention of the Company, however, to form a new wholly owned Romanian subsidiary for the purpose of any further acquisitions in Romania."
VAST Resources Romania Ltd: Inc. 28th Oct 2015, registered to Nettlestead Place, ME18 5HA with an initial capital of $100. Person(s) with Significant Control stated as VAST Resources PLC 27th Oct 2016. AP appointed director 28 Nov 2017.
https://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4940620/AFCR-raises-1-point-59m.html
Reflecting and discussing with others always offers a renewed perspective.
I'm not necessarily any happier with the situation... but... I can see the *potential* positives:
1. Aligned interests (AP wants the company to produce and profit as much as other shareholders).
2. Removal of possible conflict of interest (but why was there one, what is really that different to APMG owning 20% of BBPM vs VAST owning 100%... if the
3. Removal of barriers to finance options.
4. Less complex structure and greater clarity.
5. 100% ownership of the key asset (BBPM).
6. Upcoming production, upcoming resource sale... profitability on the horizon.
Main caveats:
1. The slightly bitter pill of further share dilution which, hopefully, will be balanced out by the 100% BBPM (+freebie) ownership... if the market feels the same way, come Monday morning.
2. The lack of a lock-in/conditional clause (...or have I missed this somewhere?)
3. The lack of external scrutiny/survey of this deal, or the valuations therein.
4. Baita Plai JORC Resource & Reserve Report not being externally validated.
It looks like the fair valuation is now around double from current SP (0.39p).
It remains to be seen what transpires from the market response to this, and subsequent production.
The fundamental issue for me is trying to understand (by looking back through company house filing information, mortgage documentation, etc) how AP Mining Group ended up with the 20% stake in BBPM in the first place - how was it financed, through what structure and in what way was ATLAS involved?
From 2014:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/african-consolidated-resources/gnw/placing--proposed-acquisition--change-of-name-a---/20141210174849H8976/
Didn't African Consolidated Resources have a majority stake in BBPM (?85%) and AP was their CEO...(?)
Ben... absolutely agree on two of your points:
Firstly, why accept their share at 'less than going rate'? As you say, probably would have taken the p155 to dilute the share price by 30% instead of around 16 and1/2%. Its this apparent altruism that makes me a little more suspicious as if its in our interest... doing us a favour. Which just comes across a bit like a used car salesman, doesn't it?
Secondly, the conspicuous absence of a lock-in clause. Makes it VERY easy to just cash-in without consequence (to them, as opposed to the SP!).
Main concern: no apparent external/independent scrutiny to this deal - it all appears to be 'in-house'.
Apparently ATLAS, the JVC that is linked to VAST, APMG and African, has in its blurb:
"Investments are selected with a disciplined, research-intensive analytical process, in conjunction with a top-down macro approach. The investment screening process involves the identification of future market drivers and current demand.
Once interest is established ACM initiates a thorough but swift due diligence process. If all investment criteria for risk-adjusted returns are met, we will immediately proceed with a deal structuring proposal.
The deal structuring process focuses on proposing the most competitive deal in order to induce growth for both our targets and investors. ACM tailors its transactions on an investment by investment basis. Soon after the transaction is closed we will begin our post-acquisition involvement.
The monitoring period includes but is not limited to : advisory & board participations, growth accelerating proposals, risk management & social impact monitoring.
Finally, the “exit” process, through a disposal to a strategic & synergic buyer, a company buyback or a sale on public markets."
Surely ATLAS must have some say or scrutiny on this deal - acting as they appear to be - as the security for the mortgage from March 2020?
Sarah Lamb- for disclosure do you have any other interest/connection to VAST other than being an interested/well-informed shareholder? Just wondered.
Have a great weekend all! :-)
How long before they all sell out do you think?... will they wait for positive results and a rise in SP (in their interests to do so I guess). It would be telling if they sell before any actual production takes place.
I would like to be told if the Directors, and their family members, will be receiving almost £5mil of shareholders money for... what, other than apparently arranging a joint venture company investment in the mining assets in the first place?
A lock-in agreement would have generated a bit more security and confidence. This just looks like their exit strategy IMO.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/VAST/letter-to-shareholders-and-notice-of-gm/14747619
Erm...
...very interesting RNS (Letter to Shareholders)!... am I being too simple or is this basically selling the "outlying" 20% minority interests held by APMG (value of 20% of VAST) back to VAST...(?)
APMG:
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/10008001/filing-history
Until 2019 was dormant. Incorporated 2016 with 100 shares (there are now 144,454?).
No accounts filed for 2019-2020 (yet) and extended to 2020. No apparent tangible assets (that have been filed), other than the incorporating shares.
"Amended and Restated Movable Mortgage Agreement over Shares" (March 2020):
Security Trustee: ATLAS Spec Op LLC - a Cayman Isl. exempted Co.
Mortgagor1: VAST Res. PLC, UK registered
Mortgagor2: APMG Ltd, UK registered
Company: African Cons. Res. S.R.L., registered Romania
Which "Bank" is concluding an asset-backed financing linked to the BBPM?
Who is the Company's Nominated Adviser?
Value of 20% of VAST =£4.845mil (substantial majority of said value being BPPM)
Will dilute VAST shareholding by 16.47%
No third-party valuer as the "Independent Directors... have come to the conclusion that they hold sufficient technical, financial and market experience individually and collectively to be in a position to make an independent evaluation of the value of the Transaction..."
ID's are: Brian Moritz, Paul Fletcher, Craig Harvey and Nick Hatch (Chairman, CFO, COO, NED of VAST, respectively).
Their own valuation of BPPM alone is US$70m "equiv. to 0.38p per Consideration Share"
"In the year ended 30 April, 2020 BPPM made a loss of $1.627 million, so that the loss attributable to the assets being acquired is $0.355m."... There will be "consolidation" ... is APMG's loss or not? No profit or loss attributable to other assets.
Can anyone explain this in terms for a simple, non-business brain like mine?
It *LOOKS LIKE* the Directors are selling 20% of their own business back to themselves at a cost of around £4mil that will come from the value of existing shareholders.......... I am keen to receive education and enlightenment! :-)
I tried to order a million boxes on behalf of a Mr J Kushner Esq, c/o 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC... for some reason it said the credit card was rejected - something about the numbers not adding up quite right... I demanded a recount
Whatever happens Biden, Trump, whoever... QE is going to impact the $, the £, the Euro... all.
Commodities - precious/rare metals will hold intrinsic and practical value, particularly with the move to renewables, EV and the like.
Great weekend to all.
Greater transparency is required.
Surely the shareholders have a right to know what the services are that result in this further dilution, by definition reducing the value of their holding. Where is all the reported equity?
CEO salary £245,291...?increasing during a period of unprofitable activity. Disappointing.