focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
...and now we're into the phase of each vaccine pharma company releasing figures that are slightly better than the last one or are more effective in certain age groups... etc etc. All based on only a handful of positive cases in real terms. The actual application and implementation is a whole different situation and will still require widespread testing for confirmation and validation for months to come; as well as the fact that even having the vaccine can never be 100% so if you attend a healthcare setting or become symptomatic you will still need to be tested to establish a diagnosis.
The market is indeed doing irrational things but there is certainly a pattern of drop and recover after each bit of new vaccine news. Interestingly, the variability/volatility should lessen each time as the incremental change plateaus.
Big sells last 24-48 hours - on the highs so you can't really blame them for realising the profits. May have been urged by both the RMS BOD sale, and vaccine-generated uncertainty. Clearly BRH have other plans for the £11mil+ perhaps their COVID test endeavours?
The market sets the SP and it is entirely driven by market forces. Now the big sellers are done (for now) investors will drive the SP back up - hopefully in a controlled, measured way. MM's must be holding the shares - how can they profit? Only by generating liquidity and volumes, surely?... the SP has to rise. Good media interest and positive sentiment will allow the SP to reach a well-supported level, which is probably around 3p now, judging by how many probably bought at that level, or higher, over the last couple of weeks.
Watch out for an RNS on contracts/production... it will stimulate a rise, probably a rapid one. Any slight drops are an opportunity to top-up. Looking at the trends and patterns over the last few weeks I see a repeat cycle will be coming soon. IMO
Buying pressure at end of trading... should see this tick-up tomorrow morning.
Media + RNS... Wonderful Wednesday to follow! :-)
Quite a few buys registering on the London Stock Exchange page.
No news yet - expectations of media interest this evening.
Support seems to remain at/around 3p.
Great advice... way too much sentimental volatility.
Some smart movers might have judged the peaks and troughs perfectly... but most will have bought on a rise or a drop.
Stable support at ??3p... wait for more news. End of week at earliest IMO but very happy to see a contracts/production RNS sooner. Hoping there are no more holdings/placings... that would be viewed unfavourably I think. It only invites suspicion and creates uncertainty which exacerbates swings.
Investment takes faith and perseverance; the longer-term view.
Everything is lining up into place... patience needed.
Exactly. Volatile SP influenced by sentiment and market forces with two key drops associated with vaccine news (with widespread effects, not all of which are predictable).
Patience. Wait for news and material/objective delivery.
If you were so inclined, consider topping up?... its up to the individual to decide.
...but just stop the incessant ramping/de-ramping - YAWN!
It looks like there was general buying pressure right up until end of trading.
Any fill orders for Monday morning may nudge the SP up at open. Its likely to gap up... maybe 5.5p based on the promise of positive news, media attention and sentiment from last 24 hours, coupled with a general re-adjustment of the market hyper-reaction to the Pfizer/BioNTech news and a more moderate, pragmatic narrative since IMO.
Looking forward to what next week brings.
GLA
Few chunky buys registering...
Monday could see a significant gap-up, especially on an RNS and media attention.
GLA
Of course they will..... something has to support the SP, doesn't it?
Is there any relationship between RMS and IQ-AI?
TWatcher
I didn't say the conclusions were incorrect. It is a question of applicability, not validity.
There will be plenty of replies. I'm just trying to present a logical, measured perspective as both an investor and someone with a little medical research background (completely unrelated) when perhaps many investors won't have and might draw different conclusions and make rash investment decisions as a result.
ATB
The BMJ study- ethically sound study, well-conducted. Carried out with due diligence... these sorts of studies will be published more and more as there has to be governance of the testing capability - depends very much on interpretation and applicability. Nuances that the wider media won't appreciate and only 'headline' fodder. I wonder if we will see similar results and headlines with some of the other tests?... probably best just to be patient. Just look at the response to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine interim results. The narrative has softened a lot since.
Summary [comment, IMO]:
Using pre-pandemic samples, the specificity of AbC-19 was 97.9% (97.2% to 98.4%), implying that, at 10% prevalence of previous infection, around one in five positive results would be incorrect.
[so it depends if this assumption about background prevalence is correct. The study was done in June so can we really assume such a high rate of prevalence of previous infection? The number of confirmed positives recorded in the general population by June was n=305,000 (0.45%) ]. The test still has a specificity of 97.9%! Sensitivity was 92.5% which means it identifies more than 92 out of every 100 positives.
Evidence of spectrum bias existed, with ~10% higher sensitivity (absolute difference) in key workers with polymerase chain reaction confirmed infection, suggesting that two gate studies may overestimate sensitivity.
[so, in a group known to be positive there is a higher sensitivity?... that is hardly surprising]
Trained laboratory staff reported that test bands were often weak and disagreed on device positivity for 3.9% of tests, so accuracy may be lower if used by members of the public.
[Every test has a range of inter-observer reliability and <5% margin is not particularly unusual. Many bed-side/point-of-care tests have a range, a margin of error and false negative or positives. Pregnancy tests are not 100% - if you think you are pregnant and the test is negative, you would retake a test in a few days.]
The title of the paper is also relevant: "Accuracy of UK Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC) “AbC-19 Rapid Test” for detection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in key workers: test accuracy study". Note "previous"... not potential new cases. Not new ones, not symptomatic ones. Why test for recovered, assymptomatic cases? The applicability is misplaced and the message therefore is incorrect.
Good study. Misplaced conclusions. IMO.
Great news!... more to come IMO
Certainly seems like a positive RNS
Interesting... is this a 'reverse-Pfizer'?
An expression of confidence - "I'm not even selling, I'm actually buying"?
I guess its not 'insider trading' if there is an RNS...?
Makes sense. Indeed. I've always thought sub-£2 to be a good level.
It might take 6 weeks, 6 months... 6 years. I'm investing in IAG, not day-trading.
I prefer to imagine it in a Jack Sparrow-esque delivery. Slightly slurred. Slightly unsteady. But from the heart.
I feel a strong stirring from the South and it isn't because of what Lil spread on my Ships Biscuit this evening.
GLA!
LSE shows a 2.4mil trade at 11:46 for 1.836. SP at that time 1.775, and never went higher than 1.8.
Looks like a buy, IMO.
GLA
PP...
Best answer ever. You're a pro. What are you doing on this board?!? ;-)
GLA, mane