JPDM Ramble 'Perceived Potential'2 Apr 2025 12:44
I was just mulling over the various messages and the question raised relating to “have their been any historically similar stocks to BOR in their current guise”. It’s a difficult one as far as I can see especially if it is based on ‘pre-set facts’ but, what also comes into play are the words ‘perceived potential’ and how that perceived potential is then interpreted.
Historically, Desire, Rockhopper and Borders & Southern have had their moments. Rockhopper alone has seen its price float at 45p 20 years ago to then double to £1 before falling to circa 10p to the hit somewhere around £5 to then fall to around 5p and now climb to 50p. At any point along that journey an investor could have made a judgement and either won big or lost badly.
Outside of the Falkland catchment I do recall the likes of Edinburgh Oil & Gas around the turn of the millennia almost by chance being part of a JV that hit the Buzzard Oil field off Scotland. One minute the SP was 20p and the next I believe it hit 160p. We had Tullow oil who bought up old fields in the North Sea and their SP went through the roof. Digging right back as far as my grey cells can we had the likes of Cairn Energy in the 90’s whose price went from I think sub £1 to near on £60 before then crashing. None of these examples are on a par with BOR but… prior to their respective rises market sentiment would have strongly queried such rises hence why they subsequently then rose so much (The ‘Perceived potential’ not being foreseen)
With BOR, IMHO not a lot is priced in, there is potentially a lot of oil there but realistically many many, years before any realisation of that wealth beneath the seabed. At such future time, beit many moons away, should BOR reach that point then the value of the company would be far in excess of its current value. So…. we have two points on the graph,
1) where we (BOR) were last year at say 2p and
2) some unknown ‘Potential’ value some time in the future.
Putting a future potential value of say 100p per share (as an example only) then by joining those two dots (2p and 100p) we can then maybe start to chart how far we are or may get along that line (Curve). Limited external influences have already impacted the price this year (to around 5p) with a successful money raise at very little discount to the SP. Some of those shares of which have Warrants for 10p attached. That obviously interested some of those key investors to see a ‘Perceived potential’ of greater than 10p
Who knows what will be happening worldwide in the next year/s but certainly there are oil majors looking for new oil fields (BP for one) and our current government is hell bent on shutting down the North Sea.
I for the record hold RKH and around 6 weeks ago did also start to take a positions in BOR. Its high risk but it all comes back to the two words I used at the beginning of this ramble being… (Perceived Potential)
As always, convey
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