JPDM Ramble 9/4/269 Apr 2026 12:45
Ladies n Gents
I saw the word ‘Chart’ (Chartist) and felt that ‘call to duty’ once again.
Just a brief past nod to Desire Petroleum as RKH reall has taken that baton and surged forward on the next step of the Falkland frontier oil story carried forward in the slipstream charge of Navitas. Coming up with forward target pricing we also need to take several past points on the graph together with the current lifecycle of the story. Various ingredients go into the cauldron, past SP movements inc elements of Fibonacci sequencing, a bit of Lassonde, warrants, open offers, farmin etc etc and, for me two most important ingredients being ‘trend lines’ and ‘resistance levels’.
So, that’s the past, all in the pot which has been simmering away. After all the excitement of 2025, 1st quarter 2026 has been a period of relative price stagnation with the SP bouncing pretty much between 70p and 75p. There are two important parts to a share price, one is the ‘Tangible’ part, what it’s actually worth , cash in bank, assets, income etc etc. The second part is the ‘Sentiment’ value which is what we and others believe, hope, expect to happen (it not always rational). When information flow is limited or stale then although the tangible value may effectively remain the same the sentimental value often erodes.
During the end of March various aspects of news flow added pressure to the SP. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago about the ‘elastic band’ stretching! It can only stretch so far before it springs forward to a new level and a new pricing level, you could also view this as having exceeded a tipping point.
To bring to the feast we have the reclassification of SEALION from contingent resource to reserve classification. We have RKH now valued at over £700m, Aoka Mizu being confirmed as going to be upgraded ready for its next job in the South Atlantic and we have potential flow of exciting news to come from ECO and Navitas next door in PL001.
Bringing all the above together plus, Zeus RNAV of 100p and 188p unrisked (which I think is conservative) price targets from myself are as follows:-
1 month 83p to 92p
Q3 - testing 100p
Q4 - firm peg in at 110p and testing 125p
For this time next year - 125p to 145p
Do keep an eye on ECO too, further behind the curve than RKH so excluding all their other involvements I expect a very significant SP increase.
I hope the above is of use and interest, as always, wishing each and all every success and good fortune.
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JPDM Fortunemaker
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