Member Info for johnpwh

Nite all. except DJ where it must be time for pre-dinner drinks.

Yes, my missives have been getting long, thanks for pointing it out - and there's me thinkng only the British understood irony!

Lets hope for a better week

Well personally I am not going to much effort monitoring when the AM moves - I am confident that a handful of nanoseconds after it does someone with put a post on here!

I am coveting your bottles of wine. I just googled it, not cheap are they!
Wil you bring them to the (eventual) AAU success party? I'll bring some CNDP, a bottle of my own sloe gin and the crisps.

Hi Levi
Must admit I am posting far more here than I ever intended - someone will accuse me of writing an essay....
I am aware of peoples pseudonyms, many of my comments are at least intended to be tongue in cheek. I do know most of the name 'mappings', including the one you mentioned. Ironically I wasn't aware of yours!
I agree that anyone with an opinion, irrespective of whether they hold shares, has a right to comment - I have myself recently on the RLD & FOX boards despite not holding shares. I think its valuable because a contrarian view (compared to the mass of positive posts being usually expressed) is healthy - it makes you think, after all most posters are shareholders who naturally want to be 'glass half full' (there's me back to alcohol again). But what surprises me, and perhaps cant understand, is why 'non believers' are prepared to spend quite so much time contributing. Perhaps they are better at typing than me...
Back to AAU. I largely share VanVans optimism here, though I have been questioning it a little more than usual since Friday. I dont really accept some of the criticism being aimed so squarely at the BOD. I have attended a presentation in London, and did so expressly to look into their eyes, try to smell the fear and assess whether they are for real. I was happy, which isnt the same as being permanently off guard. As I said the other day, what is this BOD doing that every other board of a quoted company does - yes , shock horror, they look after themselves? Anyone who cant accept that needs to save their cash in a Building Society (oh wait... I used to work for Nationwide where the Chief Exec pays himself welll in excess of £2 million!!!). The BOD control and guide (subject to some S/H votes) - the SP is a consequence of their actions but is not under their direct control, they cant dial it up. I cant see what else they are supposed to have done here really. POG is out of their control, the Turkish economy is outside their control. They got Kiziltepe (hoorah! spelled it right!) into production and are exceeding guidance. They are bringing on other sites as fast as they can while promising no further dilution to fund exploration if they can avoid it.
This truth probably lies between the rose tinted view supported largely by yours truly and the uber cynical view expressed by some of 'the other board'. I think the actions of the company are largely ok but some of their communication leaves a bit to be desired despite their best efforts (look at the number of media interviews available on YouTube etc for such a tiny company).Time will tell, and if anyone has serious doubts maybe they shouldnt be invested here. Phew, my typing finger hurts. Time for a cuppa and a Morrisons egg custard.

I like Lennon and McCartney.
I see another essay has appeared on the other board. Whoever it is really, really doesn't get P/E, and that (like my comparison of BMI) one metric does not fit all. Its not worth Plasybryn (whoever that might be) carrying on arguing the point.
Wonder what the author makes of Sirrius Minerals, which has a P/E published on the LSE site of -15% (negative). And that's a FTSE250 company. Unless that's better because 15 is a smaller number than 35!!!

Hmmm. Another error. THE CNDP dates from me leaving a job in 2001. Where do the years go?
But then you must be getting used also to the appalling spelling of the AAU prospects. Its Ivrindi & Tavsan, Ivrindi & Tavsan, Ivrindi & Tavsan…………………… Got it!

So no chugging then?
In fairness as far as I am concerned I think they can miss the deadline by a day or so without the need for an explanatory RNS. Or even a trip to the naughty step for that matter.
It's sad to see the deviation from over delivering on promises though (unsmiley face)

You are right. I have a couple of friends who each own modest villas in Spain (not sure they have been a great investment either, but nice to enjoy!) who swear by Spanish wine. Think I started off badly with it, found it too 'oaky' for my taste. But I have had some posh stuff at parties which I have loved, and each time mean to make a note of its maker.

Don't het me wrong, I don't drink NSG or CNDP as anything but a treat. In fact I have a bottle of CNDP in the garage given me in 2011, and I can never find the right time now to open it. The longer I keep it, the more special the occasion would need to be. Tell you what, we'll all have a right knees up when AAU come in....wonder how much longer it will keep? Its probably posh vinegar now anyway. So if anything (I usually drink ale with friends, never wine in a pub) its a bottle of Lindemans! I'm poor you see, a poor pensioner and Ariana shareholder - one day Rodney.....

Hi VanVan
Finally realised that about the other board. Told you I was slow. Seemed lots of ranting today. I'd say much was without basis but at the end of the day the SP is at its lowest for a year other than for a few days at the beginning of last December. Something is wrong somewhere even if it turns out to be mainly 'the message'.
I dont know much about Spanish wine. I like red, so the like of Nuits St George and Chateauneuf du Pape are a given. As a liker of all things Italian a really good Chianti also Barolo and Amarone float my boat!

Quite a debate on the other board going on. Nothing wrong with that, but initially seems alarming.
Massive post which I initially scanned quickly, I admit make me gulp! I know VanVan/Plasybrn intends to reply in detail, and he is undoubtedly more able than I. I do have a few observations however, which may help:
P/E is indeed a well known basic metric for assessing mature companies. As a metric for developing companies it makes as much sense as BMI does as a measure of obesity does for someone built like brick ….house like Johnny Wilkinson.
Panmure Gordon are not going to be told by any Board to distort a companies prospects, either explicitly (by providing misinformation) or implictly (through being silenced). It would not be worth risking their 140 year old reputation, AAU will not be one of their biggest clients!
I am the first to admit that I dont know the exact workings and structure of the JV, not because Im too thick (though I may be) but because I don't feel I need to micro manage my knowledge of this (or any other) company. With a JV the obvious way to me to administer it is to have a form of 'holding' company owned equally by the partners, to receive income, pay costs, with loans to and dividends from being passed between the partners and the JV company. From what I can see that is what happens. End of. Or is complicity in obfuscation using this (necessarily artificial) construct being alleged?
I have seen wild projections of Tasvan costs of $1100 per oz being bandied about. The May 2018 presentation had Tasvan costs at c.5% greater than Kiziltepe, which currently pan out at c $370 per oz. Clearly depressed by Lira devaluation and admittedly soon to be affected by the projected 20%+ inflation in the country, but that is a big leap! Or again is dishonesty being alleged, this time in the presentation figures, because the two disparate figures cannot be reconciled.
Cant see Inrindi and Kizilcukur as being suddenly pursued by the BOD as an alternative to Tasvan development. Kiziltepe is already working to capacity so without expansion of processing there you cant process additional ore - and since these sites aren't currently part of the JV then they either need to be sold into the JV sharpish or a fee paid to process their ore at Kiziltepe - and I cant imagine Proccea prioritising the processing of non JV ore. Incidentally my understanding is that Invindri trial mining was necessary to satisfy licence conditions.
The Directors last purchases, quite recent, were at c. 20% higher price than the current SP. Those weren't options, or in lieu of bonus, they were market purchases. They understand this company more than any of us punters do. I don't imagine they are putting their money there to pull the wool over our eyes. Maybe I'm naïve.
We are all a bit off kilter I suggest. I do look to the Management to step up here and clarify issues, they must be aware of the comments being made on these sites.

Can you mix Zinfandel with Gin??
I'd give it a try, might help me forget!!

Have a good day/evening. No idea of your time zone!

Whoop! Brent crude $82.72. Ok so it will cost me more to fill up at ASDA but should benefit HUR.

Last thought, then I will go away and drink too much (and this was a LRD (Liver Recovery Day)).
If this is as good as we (still) believe, why isn't anyone running a slide rule over us for a takeover? At the current SP its worth a punt for an established miner in case Salinbas is even 10% of Hot Maden. After all for the price Kiziltepe gets thrown in for free let alone the other bits and bobs.
DJ earlier questioned whether something is here that we just aren't seeing. Is there?

Hi Paul, the_s (sorry for the abbreviation)
Was going to reply but, not being an accountant, was unsure of the answer. As far as I am aware profit arises in the JV company of which Proccea and AAU are equal shareholders. Debt repayments are paid from the JV company first and (subject to any retention of cash in the JV) surplus is paid to the 2 shareholders - who I think loaned money to the JV in the first place. As Paul pointed out I have no idea of the tax system in Turkey. So...I dunno, but we do know from the August interviews that AAU is receiving a net income (albeit small) from the JV and has been doing so since Jan/Feb.
I dont know what to think at the moment. One bloke on 'the other board' put forward, at least on the surface, a very comprehensive analysis of Tasvan and its viability in a high inflation/low(ish) POG environment. He did take a fairly pessimistic of any variable he could but he may have a point - is that why Tasvan is delayed by at least a year and currently barely mentioned?
Think I'm just a bit fed up after today!!!

ps. Anyone want to buy a bottle of Sloe Gin?

Well that RNS as gone down well.
The BOD have got to question what is wrong with these presentations - and if its worth the cost of a PR company who don't appear to have any idea how to get the message across. Next public presentation I think I will ask how much the PR company cost us.
For a long time following updates I have taken away this dig here, dig there message, and in fairness each time good (sometimes fantastic) results are obtained. But each time exploration results are obtained the message seems to 'we're going to have a look over here now'. As I opined the other day I want to see more focus - look at one area and bring it from initial drilling to production in regimented way. Maybe that is indeed what is happening and it is just presentation, that with permitting etc. the progress is in fact as fast as it can be, But if that is the case then each site should be mentioned In each update to dispel the feeling that following promising results things are put on a (very low) back burner to be looked at later whenever its convenient. This is despite the fact that AAU seems on the face of it to be giving good information via face to face and published presentations. I want to be told how we are progressing Kizilcukur and Ivrindi into the current JV, tell me about Tasvan and whether the planned 30,000 oz pa ( a massively important development which will more than doubling output) production is still on schedule etc etc. Else this drift will just continue, or even get worse because its obvious shareholders (both actual and potential) are now questioning whether this dream will ever pan out. And heaven help us if a fund raising does prove necessary with the SP in the doldrums like this. Talk about dilution.
Put it this way, I may sell my Sloe Gin to friends at Christmas, its frustrating that I will make more profit from that the I have made from investing in AAU so far!

Good posts from Paul280i on the 'other board' (he posts here also) and Soulsauce.
The only thing I would dispute with Paul is how quickly free cash would be available for dividend. Tasvan is scheduled (at present) for (I think, too lazy to look up) plant development in late 2019/2020 and production in 2021. That will need a further loan which will need repayment so pushing out dividends.
Soulsauce suggested that further prospects would be needed if the intention is to prove up Salinbas and sell it, in its entirety rather than a new JV. Clearly to achieve this proving of the resources in major prospect sin Salinbas will be necessary to maximise price. However, I would buy into that, leaving (greater) Kiziltepe/Tasvan as a revenue engine chugging along in the background

DJ
Thought you might feel that way.
Sorry to repeat my earlier comment but with something the size of Salnbas to explore/ finance/ disgest/ exploit, as we are being told, why the interest in further prospects - the only way I can see that is to diversify away from Turkey? Seriously has anyone got a view on this as it is nagging at me now.
I may have to go and pick some sloes to contemplate!

In fairness we were all expecting additional Salinbas potential, but obvious that is big! So perhaps I was a bit dismissive. Its not the place of the interims to give exploration details, I will look forward to the next update for that to put meat on the bones. Certainly the market isn't moved by the RNS - Its going to be more waiting, don't think DJ will be impressed! Hope for an interview later?

I may as well repeat myself - Hear, hear! I second (third, fourth whatever) that.

I love peoples informed comments on this board, but when the bitching starts I just switch off and go away. It is a real shame.