Member Info for johnpwh

Hi
Great production figures, cant deny that, but the effect on the share price 2 hours after the bell is.....er…..

The results. Plant throughput 46214 until 24th Sept, so roughly 46214 x (92/86) = c.49400 for the full quarter (unless they all downed tools and had a big party). Effectively identical to Q2. Plant feed Grade 4.33 g/t compared to 4.77 g/t in Q2, so down a bit. Recovery 93.9% vs 94.3% Q2 so down a teeny weeny bit. But we end up with 6% more gold at 7588 oz. How does that work - I think that figure is just gold so not affected by the silver production? I know I'm being thick and am missing something but on the face of it that doesn't make sense.
More silver, a lot more, great. Silly question but wat happens to the silver? I know what happens to the gold, to date the Turkish government buys the lot as soon as its produced.
Costs hopefully good, the higher production dilutes fixed costs/ oz, Lira was weak muting Q3 local costs even more than Q2. Still await the effect of escalating price of oil, as not sure how direct that relationship is. Dr S says 'operational costs....remain favourable'. All good.
Without wishing to be an old misery why wont the SP move even on news like this? I worry that these last 2 quarters, where everything is going fab, causes no tick up (the opposite in fact before anyone says). What will the reaction be to a quarters production sometime in the future wen they mine a less rich seam, inflation effects costs etc?

Looking at the SP history I can see that the maximum ever reached was 16.50p in April 2006. Wonder what prompted such optimism then?

Hi DJ
Good to hear from you.
I feel your frustration, and post pub (its 11.10 pm in Shropshire) I cant really focus sufficiently to provide a satisfactory response! I genuinely get where you are coming from, myself I am around 2 years in and showing a negative return (was level till last couple of weeks!).
The continuing SP performance (or lack of) has provoked me to learn more about the company. As ever with any decisions to remain invested I follow a basic logic which I have voiced before (sorry if you have already heard it). That is, forget what I paid, forget I own any AAU shares, pretend I own none. Then knowing what I know now, would I invest at the current share price. If yes, I stay invested, if no then sell. By that logic then, fed up though I am, I would not sell. Kip time!

Oh no, down to 7.5 knots.

Damn, you've got me doing this shipwatching thing now......

Got to laugh at Trump. Apart from the fact that he's the most powerful man in the world that is, which is concerning.
He rants and raves about the Saudis, saying there will be 'severe punishment' meted out, and he will be 'angry and upset'. Then a lightbulb moment.....we cant cancel defence contracts or the Saudis will buy from China or Russia and the likely job losses would hit the fan just before the November US elections. Plus of course he wants the Saudis to pump oil faster to restrict the sharp rises in POO which hurts the US, resulting from the sanctions Trump himself has imposed on Iran against advice from his allies. At least George W Bush was quite funny.

Hmm, some may suggest substituting 'empires' for 'empire' in SlowRolls post

Thanks Matrix, appreciated

Yep JayKay, always best to avoid strain on your piles.

Can any of you shipwatchers give me the link to whatever it is you are using to track our fine vessel as it chugs northwards?

Mil62
Have to say the weather there is a lot better today than Telford

Great news, look forward to the RNS on Monday. I disagree with Daltry about the SP, any risk item removed should provide a positive result although probably fairly muted. As the ship proves its reliability during its voyage, reaches and leaves Rotterdam (and time to FOIL shortens) then again a sequence of small tick ups. Question mark over POO at the moment wont help as this correction seems more firmly founded on wide expectation of economic growth.

Hi
Guesses!, Albeit hopefully logical ones. But lots of margin for error I admit. And yes, the grade will have the most crucial effect on my argument, utterly agree.
I have posted messages about why I think costs may rise since Q2 in the last few days, so just a precis here. The factors as I see them:
1)Everything went so well in all areas last quarter and the plant behaved itself (99% availability). So I cant see there is upside on tonnage. So if anything the same or a bit worse.
2)Grades, that's the big unknown, we don't know what they were mining throughout Q3. The 4.77 g/t average in Q2r was good, better than we may have expected. If that seam is still being exploited then of course more ounces are possible. More ounces is a win-win as with more gold cost per ounce decreases, as fixed costs are obviously spread across more product. Being conservative I assume around the same grades or a bit less because I don't know for certain otherwise
3) The lira was in fact, on average, weaker in Q3 than even Q2. Lira weakness in Q2 helped depress the costs to $371. So that part of costs, if you like costs in local currency, may be lower
4) the one that worries me is price of oil, up I think close to 15% on average in Q3. I imagine AAU uses lots of energy and recent oil prices rises will be passed on - I cant see the weakness of the Lira helping there, it is a commodity priced in $
5) The margin will definitely be squeezed from the income side because the price of gold was roughly 10% lower on average in Q3. As soon as its poured the gold is sold pretty much the same day at spot price in Istanbul so it has to hit

So just an opinion, evidence based. Time will show right or wrong, and as a shareholder (with too many shares) I would like to be wrong!

Just had a look at the other board. Lot of respect for Biggles, both his commitment shown in his shareholding and the great reports from the site visit.
Must admit for September end production I hope for 6500 oz and costs around $450 per oz. With an average effective gold price of say $1300 oz, that would give total free cash in the JV for the quarter c.£4.25m (I've got a math degree so I've almost certainly got that wrong).
Not sure I agree about wanting AAU valued predominately as an exploration company. Maybe that is partly what is holding the SP back?

Cor blimey, bloomin 'eck, the last transaction was a sale at 1.1125.
Gets worse. As for the markets....I blame the Americans. Ooops, sorry DJ

That is very true, I had missed that.
At least then we get grades, tonnage processed and ounces produced. Should be about now! Wonder what takes a further month in order to get the financials added?
Assuming the mining has gone well, which I have little doubt is true, I think current shaky sentiment would bolstered if Preliminary Production Results were released asap

Are we expecting a Salinbas update prior to Dr S presenting at Finex next week? I say that because I assume he cannot give new information there, although I realise the conference is primarily about financing of projects rather than geological results obtained. I think a Salinbas update would be appreciated by all here (unless it's not good news!!).
Looking at RNSs made over the last year the earliest we can hope to get the quarterly Kiziltepe production update for September end is around the turn of November.
Unsmiley face, I want some news

Just listened to the interview, interesting.
Could someone tell me whether all of Foxs' quarries are within trucking distance of the processing plant?

Good to see this POG recovery, 2.5% in a day. Guess its just a flight to safety given the markets so may drop back. Would be nice to see it recover towards the $1300 level, that would do no harm to AAUs profitability (and the value of its reserves).

Fall of about 8% in POO to, which if sustained will help. Living in Telford my opportunities to work in a gold mine is somewhat limited, but I should imagine running an open pit, transporting shedloads of well heavy rock, crushing it then smelting it takes a fair bit of energy input. So POO must have a significant effect on our costs, that and staff. Does anyone know? Just asking, doesn't really matter if no one does!

Yep, agree, have been some odd movements.
But at least I haven't got any DeLorean shares. Sorry, Tesla

Quite a drop over the last couple of days, which, with the lack of news, explains some of the SP drop here.
Recently the POO has bobbed back up after declines, but this is rapid and steep. Any thoughts?

Hi
I am talking about the gold price and cost base, and the impact of those for margin on the quarter.
Think you are misunderstanding my sentiment here, probably my poor choice of words. I defined my term 'material', suggesting that by material I meant maybe 10%. I hope I'm wrong,
Ok, by material I mean not insignificant, hope that's better.
I'm not suggesting production targets will be missed, in fact I never have. Production may match or even exceed the previous quarter, though the latter outcome would be a (albeit pleasant) surprise in my opinion - the JV is already working flat out at surprisingly high grades.
And it really would be a massive surprise to me if the JV didn't manage the production guidence for 2018 given what is in the bag already YTD. That would be depressing indeed!
My point was that I feel, purely my opinion, the margin the JV gets for its product is likely to decline for the reasons I gave. Just visually from the Nasdaq POG graph you can estimate gold has declined from an average of about $1310 per oz in the quarter ended 30th June to about $1220 over the quarter ended 30th September. Plus costs will, in my opinion, be affected by an average increase in POO of a bit less than 15% over the same period
So constant production x reduced margin = reduced free cash.
Put it this way VanVan, my top up today has appeared under the trades tab, so I cant be exercising too much caution!