Member Info for johnpwh

Of course if she is sailing in a slow small circle it could mean her rudder is broken...………..

Hope Dr.T follows this board. Must be having a right giggle and wondering who he's got as shareholders!

I agree Claret, though actually I'd rather read nothing.

What have you made of the various recent events/news for AAU? You have kept your powder dry while some us have been getting all emotional!

Good luck vs Huddersfield, you've a tough one after that!!

Please don't clutter up this board with petty personal arguments. Go and use the other board for that

DJ
I joined twitter on Vans recommendation solely to see Ariana posts and I similarly recommend it. They put quite a bit of information and photographs on there.
I have been not tempted to use it for anything or anybody else, so don't think it is necessarily a one way road to squalor, debauchery and eventual demise.

Thanks Paul

Tremendous feedback from Biggles this morning, very thankful to him. Pleased to have a definitive answer about overlapping loan repayments, which seemed to tease out further reassurances about (lack of) funding requirements. Nice that there will be 6-12 months free cashflow between loan repayments to which may be added hopefully a reasonable amount by selling Ivrindi and Kizilcukur into the JV, that will give a nice buffer. Tavsan definitely seems on despite I thought being downplayed in the presentation, Biggles described processing exactly as Dr S outlined at AS, hence the quicker and relatively cheap plant costs - my only question would be how 'concentrated' the concentrate will be, ie is there a security issue n transportation.

VanVan ( and anyone else who can put me straight)
Suppose that per the May 18 presentation it is still the intention to commence the construction of the Tavsan processing plant in mid 2019, with commissioning starting mid 2020 and production at the start of 2021. Today we have learned that the current loan continues (I assume with pretty much level repayments) through to April 2020. How then will the JV repay the new Tavsan loan between mid 2019 and April 2020 since the net revenue from Kiziltepe is surely insufficient for repayments on both loans. Do we 'overborrow', or would the terms of the loan be that repayments of the Tavsan loan do not commence until production there commences? I'm just worried about further cash calls.

Thank gawd for that. I was beginning to feel the predictions of 1p were going to be met!

Benjie
That is a brilliant contribution to this board and I thank you.
You clearly have a far greatrer understanding of accounting practice than me (nil ish). Do the same international standards extend over most international jurisdictions - so would those in Turkey be the same as the UK? Does the useful life of an asset not affect the amortisation period? I know tax accounts can be on a different basis for items such as depreciation, and I see that amortisation can affect the bottom line for the CT calc.

Hi VanVan
Must admit I am not particularly upbeat about this presentation. Can’t agree on the interpretation of 'through further expansion at Kiziltepe and/or development of Tavsan'. As a mathematician I expand that as 'through further expansion at Kiziltepe and development of Tavsan, or through development of Tavsan'. I don't think it means possibly through expansion at Kiziltepe alone, though maybe I am being too literal. The consequence of that of course is that the end of loan payments in April 2020 will just predate loan repayments to develop a processing plant at Tavsan - so no sudden availability of free cash to use for exploration (I do not expect this company to ever consider dividend payments. This will always be about potential capital appreciation like Mariana).
Regarding the rest of the presentation, I wish they would stop saying AAU is debt free. While that is technically true at the company level AAU effectively ‘owns’ half the debt of the JV. I think it is misleading.
No specific statement about the Turkish economy, but I noticed a change of wording from ‘operating in a mining friendly jurisdiction’ to ‘operating in a practical mining jurisdiction’. That seems a very deliberate change to make and I don’t know how to interpret it!
I don’t like the lack of reassurance about the Tasvan development. In the May 18 presentation the timeline showed ‘construction from Mid 2019’ – which is a mere 8 months away. All I have been able to find is a rather vague ‘Debt financing discussion underway for project build’.
Initial capital costs at Salinbas given at $53m. Eek! Where would that come from for a company with £13m market cap? I’m no miner, but grades of 2 g/t for AU in our company changing prospect? The current grades at Kiziltepe are nearly 5 g/t! Salinbas is supposed to be ‘our’ Hot Maden’, but look up the grades there and it will make your eyes water!
The company seems to be regressing to predominately an exploration company, after the excitement of first production. I can just see similar updates in the future continuing this ‘few holes here, few holes there, and a few more holes somewhere else next year’ story that seems to be becoming the norm.
So that lot, plus my expectation of a significant squeezing of margins post end of June quarter, and I give it an ‘unsmiley face’.

Hmm. Haven't got time to read properly at the moment. Scanned and not really pleased that the timeline presentation for each site no longer appears. Again (though I may have missed it) no confirmation that Tavsan is still to be developed mid 2019 for production 2021 ->. As I say, I may have missed, hope so

Been out all day felling trees with a chainsaw. Blood everywhere, but at least it was my friends blood rather than mine.
Nice to come back to some AAU posts. On the Hurricane board there is so many, 100+ a day often, so most of the time I don't bother to read! But come on chaps, we are going round and round in circles, and before anyone points it out I know I am as guilty of reiteration as anyone else.
I really want to hear from the Company now, there is no way they are ignorant of the declining SP and messages being posted on theses boards. Dont forget MDV bought several millions recently at over 1.4p.
Keep smiling everyone, its only money!

I don't know the exact working of the JV but unless there is significant retained profit within the JV then the repayment to AAU is essentially the difference between net income and the debt repayment

Hi Benjie
Haven't got time to look at in details but the figures you are referring to is, I think, calendar YTD net of debt repayments

Errata
What I was trying to say about the Lira was that is seems to have bottomed out vs $ and is showing a bit of (less than convincing) strength. Which wont help costs long term. But for the quarter to September end the (average) Lira exchange rate was lower than for the quarter to June end - I think its pretty much the only factor which will help costs for quarter Sept end.

Beaufor may help explain todays rather dismal SP performance, along with continued effect of the poorly received Interims.
I think like you I want the 2.7Moz Salinbas Exploration target explaining and hope that is forthcoming soon.
I have some concerns on costs, the last reported quarters result of $371 may prove to be freakishly low - fine but it kind of sets an expectation of a similar figure next time out., a sharp increase in costs when next reported will be another stick to beat the BOD with. I think costs will increase because:
Very high grades encountered, 4.77 g/t, unlikely to be equalled, let alone bettered
99% mill availability, again can really only get worse
Lira weakness (though in fairness was weaker during quarter ending September than the previous quarter)
Costs in local currency will be subject to significant inflation in future c.25% pa from now on
Non lira costs unaffected by Lira weakness anyway - notably oil, in $ of course, where average cost is up c.15% over the quarter. I'm not a miner, do you know what proportion of AAU costs are in fossil fuel? And have you seen POO today - fine for my oil shares but not for AAU where margin is being squeezed by continuing POG/POS
I would consider adding, but would like to hear from the company first - and/or Director buyng

Chill! It was a light hearted comment. At least was meant to be.

Everyone on here (pretty much) feels the company is worth far more than its market value, or we wouldn't be here. If not 'beyond reasonable doubt' then at least 'on balance of probability'.

Enjoy it during the long, long wait for AM to start chugging :-)

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Told you!!

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