Member Info for johnpwh

Hi
Yes gold seems to be bouncing around either side of $1200. Guess that's understandable in these markets. I don't normally invest in the physical stuff myself
My comments about a worsening margin is essentially that everything in the quarter ending 30th June couldn't have gone better. ie if can only get worse!
Plant availability 99%
Record tonnage processed, fully utilising plant
Grades higher than expectation. Clearly this could continue in the short term
Costs affected by local currency decline may in fact be lower quarter ended 30th September, compared to 30th June BUT significant POO increases will not be tempered by the Lira decline (I can only assume this is a significant element of costs)
https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx?timeframe=6m
The main reason for my relative pessimism is the decline in POG over the quarter. Mention has been made of the decline, I seem to remember, by MDV
https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/gold.aspx?timeframe=6m
As you rightly said earlier, just my opinion. Time will show if correct!

Hi VanVan
Think we are pretty much talking about the same thing except I wasnt looking at 2020 in isolation. As you say the current loan ceases during the first half of the year so not sure where the £12m finance costs came from - I assumed this was talking about AAUs share of the Tavsan loan (plus arrangement costs/interest). I may have interpreted Blackstout's comment incorrectly, if so I apologise for that.
The only thing we dont really agree on is whether the results for quarter end September will be materially worse(however you define that, say 10%+) than quarter end June. We will soon know, and believe me I hope you are correct, not me!

Hi Blackstout
I cant talk from an accounting viewpoint, more from a business cashflow as I currently understand it. As a non accountant I view the business, and Arianas share, as a whole without worrying too much about the holding company structure. Maybe I am naïve.
Re 2020 cash flows. Assuming that all goes to the predicted timeline, and that a new loan repayments wont commence until Tavsan is in production, then I'm not sure I agree with your views.
VanVans post related to underlying profit from the current operation. The projected new loan from 2020 (ish) is £20m, of which £10m (plus interest) will be due to AAU. From 2020 the Tavsan operation should increase production by 30000 oz (AAU share 15000 oz) at c.$600 per oz cost. Although the company presentation talks about payback of the loan being 1 years production, I do not take that as literally meaning the loan will be paid off in year 2020/2021. If it were to be paid back over LOM (currently 3 years, predicted to lengthen) then the annual finance costs are surely far less than your number. So the bottom line is from 2020 onwards an additional (share of) 30000 oz @ $600 oz cost and finance cost of £4m, to which VanVans £7m from current operations may be added. I admit these are back of the envelope as I have to go out right now, but the calcs but seem reasonable to me.
Re current profitability I agree with you that the last quarter was a 'sweetspot' which I dont expect to be repeated, I have said this before.
I havent got rose coloured specs on, I do constantly question this, but equally do not view the future with pessimism unless there are further falls in POG

I do think you have a point. Hence still a believer!
Just wish others would share the view and provide me with a reassuring increase in SP!

Eeek!

Just seen the American indices. Rough day tomorrow methinks.

Should have stayed in the pub. Night all

No!!!!
DJ, you mean a £12m investment was taken over by someone for only £50k?

£50k.....about the price of a 2 up 2 down terraced house in Rochdale with an outside privy...…………...

Despite the site visit and the interims, despite the Turkish economy apparently stabilising, in fact despite the absence of any bad news the SP is still drifting gently down.
Boo.
I used to compare our total Market Cap to a typical luxury flat in cental London. At this rate it will soon be more like a 2 up 2 dowm terraced house in Rochdale with an outside privy

Dreek per the Urban Dictionary.

Lots of other interesting things in there too, far too rude to mention

Not worries with SP, in fact not really surprised!
We've missed the predicted chugging to Rotterdam (by at least 10 days), which is kind of the first missed big deadline by the company and that in itself is bound to disappoint. . That in turn puts us further towards winter weather WOS (dreek doesn't even begin to describe), the markets are weak today also. Ok POO is resilient but lets face it comrades, a bit of a drift down is understandable.
Have a wee dram and chill. If that doesn't work have another.
And all the best HTL, my sisters just recovered from 2 bouts of breast C one after the other, out the other side now after wonderful treatment with the NHS, so all is definately not lost.
John

Actually DJ a good read. The idiot has surely lost a good proportion of the female vote, and they are likely just over 50% of the electorate in most developed countries?

As you say, best not to talk too much politics. Suffice to say each time I see POO climbing I think of Trumps stupid 'noble' pose that he seems to think shows the world how intelligent and respected he is (nt)

No hiding place for Biggles on the other board now. We know what you look like!!

Once again as soon as the POO is depressed by Trumpy comments/ world events/ etc. it bounces up again. This has to be good news with FOIL approacing

Spruce
Just an aside but the Mosquito also benefitted from being able to have airframe part production disseminated into hundreds of little carpentry workshops around the country, so limiting the disruption caused by bombing, And another fact that the aircraft gained several mph in top speed due to its skin being 'smooth' and not covered by turbulence creating rivets.

Just saying, makes a change from ship watching and arguing with Trolls!

Well judging by what I read, and a stable (if not particularly recovering) exchange rate, things are maybe not as bad as painted a month ago. Obviously AAU will reap some benefit from the Lira weakness with regard to costs, although not from the high POO, especially in view of a stubbornly subdued POG. Inflation of 20% + will gradually become a problem. Cant decide if Erdogans rejection of IMF loans is a good or bad thing - the IMF would provide some restraint to the economic actions of what is, after all, a dictatorship in all but name. Lets just hope idiot Trump gets his wings clipped in November before his mouth damages Turkey further!

Unvrkw
Still reading the board with interest, still not back in!
What is the case for Stone Alliance in your view? It seems to me that the company has several quarries each supplying different marble types (colour etc) covering a significant part of the market. As far as I have read there is an almost unlimited supply in each quarry so the problem is more selling it and mining it rather than one day running out of the stuff. Given this is a tiny company why not just focus on that - maybe for good? The Stone Alliance thing is a) going to provide competition for the companys own product b) take managements eye off the ball c) likely to result in greater capital requirements/ cash calls/ dilution/ drag on profits. This is a genuine question, because it seems that Chris and the management are having a hard enough time adapting to running a mining company without stretching their time/ limited expertise further. Put it this way, I think I would be far more likely to invest in Fox in the near future if Stone Alliance wasn't on the cards.

Arbitrader
Couldn't agree more. Attention seeking so just don't react. Funny thing about them is that if they were more subtle and clever they could sew seeds of doubt in peoples minds. But they cant curb their enthusiasm so come out with garbage calculation to shock, and that makes them transparent so easy to dismiss

Someone on the other board suggesting a bonus for shareholders in 2020, by that I assume he means dividends commencing.

At first I doubted it, but now I am wondering. From April 2020 there is significant net cash from Kiziltepe until the Tavsan loan begins to be repaid. But once that repayment commences Tavsan should itself be in production and AAU will benefit from the margin on about 25.000 oz (half of the 50,000 oz projected). At a margin of say $600 per oz, that is c.£11.5m less the Tavsan loan repayments less ongoing Salinbas exploration costs. So, I've kind of changed my mind, dividends are possible. Its early on Sunday morning (for me) but does this make sense?

Joking! Bet someone would know!

I see on twitter a picture of a couple of representatives from Yellow Jersey, AAUs PR company.
I realise the visit was primarily to see the mine and asked questions of the Ariana staff, However I wonder if anyone asked the Yellow Jersey peeps what exactly they are doing for the money they get paid, because nobody here can see any contribution?

Bloody hell, is there anything about this boat you lot don't know?!

I shall have to think of an obscure question...….