Member Info for johnpwh

Just got round to reading these. I wouldn't necessarily take what is said verbatim, but the same time I see no reason to want to invest here because its hard to type the dealing order on a keyboard with all your fingers and toes crossed! I would add that the Board don't appear to give a **** about investors, silence day after day about the various potentially serious problems that appear to be surrounding this company. Good luck to all investors

And heap leaching is planned at Tavsan, I think there are no plans to use heap leaching at Kiziltepe other than eventually for very low grades (c. 1g/t) that are currently being stockpiled and which were originally not planned to be processed

Good find, and a concern. Don't think we just need to worry about the North East - Its true that the Kiziltepe operation is established and, if you can believe what we are told by the BOD, is popular because of the employment opportunities it has brought to a poor region. However Tavsan has not yet seen plant development and may cause upset amongst the local population - it could lead to delays?

Hi Van. I asked about the Gantt charts at the London Presentation in May, was told they had no plan to reinstate as they ended up a rod for the BODs back - because of timings out of their control, permitting etc. I don't think we will see them back!

That sounds feasible Ash. think what I am getting at is that meaningful free cash into the JV will not start, at a rate of say £4.5m per quarter (allowing for a tax asset) until mid 2020. It depends on when the development commences, shape of the cash flow needed for that development and the maintenance of working capital that AAU/ JV consider prudent. The last Gannt chart (before the company decided to abandon them) was in the Nov 2017 presentation (I think). That had construction taking place during the 2019 calendar year, with commissioning early 2020. Clearly that has slipped, but if development takes place sooner rather than later (as we all hope) the loan seems more necessary.

While I don't think that self financing Tavsan plant development is the companys intention, or imo desirable, I agree that a reduced loan does make sense. Pluck a figure from the air, 10 million rather than 20 million?

Hi M2, DJ
I can see Tavsan could conceivably be financed from income, particularly post 4/20 income, but it would be a bit hand to mouth- why would the company run itself so low on working capital, especially with exploration to finance? It would be a different matter if they were struggling and having to pay a massive premium for a plant development loan but I think the current lenders are very comfortable with the company. Then, again post 4/20, maybe a small dividend could be considered (yes I have changed my tune a bit on that one, I can see really we need something to raise the profile to attract investors and raise the SP).

it did, thanks. Will look more closely tomorrow, the only thing jumping out is that I'm not that optimistic about the commencement of returns at Tavsan. I would put that a year further back. I would be happy to have something definite about the development there, even if it is later rather than sooner - its not knowing that causes doubt

Ash, you raise many points that concern a few of us, certainly VanVan and Paul280i who I met after the recent presentation. Great blokes I may add.
The company has always been open that Arzu South is likely (deliberate use of the word) to yield the highest grades. With the plant working at full capacity production numbers will probably gradually fall as we move to new pits - though that may be delayed until mid 2020 due to Arzu South ore stockpiled at the plant. Any resulting financial drop may be mitigated if POG/POS remains high of course, and should certainly ensure a good Q3 result since we are halfway through it already with POG at 1500 and POS at 17. Even if POG/POS decline again the SP will surely be boosted by the fact that net income will jump after repayment of the Kiziltepe loan next April. Production could also be boosted by the much talked about second ball mill at the existing plant, and will in fullness of time will be massively boosted by Tavsan. But viewing a timeline for the company could be troubling if Life of Mine cannot be extended, and that LOM wont be helped by employing a second ball mill. I may be wrong but think Kiziltepe is 'officially' still only 6 years, and with Tavsan currently quoted at 4 years there is a danger that W. Turkey 'runs out' before production starts in NE Turkey. Nobody close to the company expect that as they believe LOM in the West will extend, but maybe the possibility is one thing holding investors back.

Agree. Think folks don't realise that the companys targets are so numerous that some of the exploration is dictated by the requirements of satisfying licence conditions (or risk losing the licence). So the team at times are, I think, spread a bit thin and not necessarily targeting what they want or best. I agree with M2 that Ivrindi is small (apparently) - it is also not in the JV with no contracted basis for inclusion. I think the RC drilling there may have been to satisfy licence conditions, but I am guessing . I certainly don't remember hearing results but these days I even forget who I am sometimes!

At least we are 2.19 on the bid now, so a little SP progress. Looking to Tavsan update more than the quarterlies, the production was down and the average POG/POS over the month was down compared to Q1 - people seem to forget we get spot as soon as the gold is produce so the dramatic elevation of POG at the end of June will be irrelevant (but not of course to Q3). In fact you could argue that they chose a good month to have (relatively) poor production!!

Good luck with the new season. Nothing to see here!

but not AAU!

Dibs
What are your thoughts on platinum? Up to a couple of years back it was normally at parity or even at a premium to gold. Now it is a 40%+ discount. I'm guessing that is because of a decline in industrial usage (in reality I don't have a clue). With the rise in POG/POS what is the consensus on where platinum is headed?

Booming POG/POS (even myself and the other cynic DJ will admit) but still no RNS on Tavsan/Salinbas samples/Anything. Disappointing really

Well unfortunately the rising POG wont help with last months lower production figures as the rise came too late in June. So I am braced for a lower financial result for Q2, perhaps significant. We know pit grades will become lower as we move to Arzu North/Deyra, though that could be helped with a second ball mill to up throughput. A higher POG will help compensate for this reduction. A second ball mill at Kiziltepe sounds attractive except that it will obviously also deplete Life of Mine. We need Tavsan, especially if it can be confirmed that LOM there can be extended from the current 4 years.

Great to see some buying interest this morning, offer currently 222 on 100k.
News on Tavsan and further analysis of Salinbas RC drilling surely imminent. I think in the short term something definite of Tavsan development is what most of us are hoping for.

Thanks for the support Dibs, just trying to make this a more pleasant place to be.
However I now have another filtered message - I know its no longer Paul (Deano). I presume it is someone else who was abusive in the past. I'm sure they provide frequent, insightful, informative, well reasoned analysis of AAU, like many of us posting here try to. Then again probably not, so he/she will remain filtered.

Astonmartinlover, you are talking utter nonsense. If you are really an equity investor then god help you. Filtered because I really can be bothered to read such tosh

Massive amounts of additional equity released at way under 35p, production costs requiring well over $3 to be profitable (wheras current POC is $2.55 and on a downwards trend), trade wars between US and Chine likely to undermine copper demand (which is shown in the POC , also sales of EVs likely to be way less than expected in the near future though that is a personal opinion) etc etc. Its difficult for companies like RMM. Its a nice little operation with the only political danger being the leader of the free world wanting to bully Trudeau, but at the same time the mine is small and you aren't paying workers 3rd world wages so it is hard to compete. As in my previous post on RMM I eventually concluded after 10+ years that I could not see a profitable futures and sold, but you need to follow your own research