Member Info for johnpwh

ps I do intend to remain a AAU shareholder, albeit with a significantly lesser amount

I'm not planning to disappear Claret, even if some would like me to! I am selling but its not a fire sale, you wont find me selling the share down to 2p or under.
The Clarets are still on my watch list even though there are now 3 with similar home kit in the Premier league. The furthermost south ones hold no interest

Thanks Albi, I scanned the days posts and didn't spot that

Can I assume no one has managed to log on to Dr Ts Chat? Rushed home from the RAF museum for this!

Indeed Aduk
Maybe its in Leiscestershire?? :)

Thanks for writing DJ, appreciate the time you , Van and Ash have spent replying.
I have made my mind up because this has stopped being a sleep soundly at night share for me now, and I am overinvested based on the slow but steady approach that now seems to be going. The proposal is simply not the storyboard I bought into.
Have a good day, off to my voluntary job at the RAF Museum!

Hi Ash
Unlike the existing 'comfortable' situation in my view this now has potential to go badly wrong, especially with control of assets no longer being with AAU or Proccea. We have to depend on the actions of a new party which has come from nowhere to be dominant in the JV with sufficient influence to push through any agenda they see fit.
The current operations are the result of years of careful development by the BOD, which we have all followed and understood, and that effort is frustratingly close to come to fruition with the repayment of the loan and very significant income over an extended payment that implies. That income is now slashed. The reassurance of that controlled development, which was unlikely to fail while at the same time being considered as significantly undervalued, is to be lost overnight.
I have to reduce exposure to this share now for peace of mind, this will no longer be a share i can feel relaxed about.
I accept I am in a minority of shareholders who feel this way so have no doubt that the necessary votes will be amassed in February. However as mentioned earlier the market, if you believe in its predictive function, is not enthralled by this - the SP touched 3p shortly after announcement but is a long way short of that now.

I'm gobsmacked. Is no one questioning this massive give away of assets here? Just when we were about to pay off the final debt at Kiziltepe and we would start up to 10 years (or maybe more) of debt free serious cash generation putting us on a stupidly low PE - in turn escalating the SP, something all of us have been talking about for months.
The RNS should have come out on Black Friday, it would be fitting.
The JV at Salinbas should be totally independent of the one at Red Rabbit. That is my view and I will not be changing it.
And do I believe this open chequebook story? I'd love to see how that is going to be included in a binding contract.
The new partner will have control of the JV by holding 53%. I am looking for the exit which, given the reaction that the market has given now that the initial euphoria of Monday lunchtime has worn off and the RNS properly studied, could be some way off. 2p seems far more likely than 3p.

Where are the BRR/ Proactive interviews that normally appear after results and announcements? Here we are well after the RNS, the quarterlies and the London presentation and nothing. I believe the last sale today was at 2.22p. The market likes this deal as much as I do.

Just read a few posts on ADVFN, mostly enthusiastic believers but some sceptical. One by the name of McMather drew attention to something I had also noticed in the wording - in respect of Salinbas the new partner is paying AAU $5m plus a further $8m to fund until construction. They will 'organise' the loan. People think this means that they are funding the plant there. Maybe it does but I really don't think so, and neither does he. Organising isn't the same as funding unless the wording is poor.
For $50m they will get 53% of the RR revenue - Ash and I have both done calculations of the next 10 years RR revenues (Ash rather more accurately than me). Over half of AAUs interest in productive assets are being signed over, after which it will have a minority interest in the JV and significantly reduced funds for exploration and dividends.
The new partner will take its 53% just as the Kiziltepe plant becomes debt free so will enjoy the nice fat net income we were anticipating after 2020Q1. We won’t get the half we were expecting if this goes through, in fact we wont even get a quarter.
Why does Proccea end up with 23.5% of Salinbas. For doing/funding what exactly?
Relatively minor point but what happened to AAU on 51% and Proccea on 49% in the current JV. Seems to be equal now at 23.5%.
What happens to free cash we believe is in the JV before the new arrangement kicks in - are the coffers emptied to AAU/Proccea or does the new partner enjoy 53% of that too?
The JV will pay 3 times exploration for any asset taken in to the JV (so only 2.2725 net to AAU as it will own 23.5% of the JV). What happens if AAU spends loads exploring a prospect that is uneconomic or a total duster – will the JV be happy to take in that asset at 3 x costs? I doubt it, AAU takes the hit I bet.
We will lose 76.25% of Kizilcuker and eventually Invindri. They may not be part of this MoU at present but they are bound to be absorbed as there is little alternative. Kizilcukur alone has a target of 50000 oz. Kiss goodbye to 76.5% of it chaps.
A special dividend. Great but no commitment to a regular dividend so don’t count on it, especially as AAU will have little income with only 23.5% of the JVs productive assets. And since the shares are effectively ‘cum’ the special dividend then all the special dividend will do is reduce the SP by roughly the same amount when it goes ‘x’. All that does is swap your capital gain (if there is any left) to income which some may not want.
I am not surprised the SP is behaving like this. 2.3p now? I used to think that this company was a 5 bagger or possibly 10 if it continued its slow but constant development. Undervalued because of its low profile but about to blossom within 6 months when the Kiziltepe construction loan was repaid and a definite Tavsan development schedule was published. Now? I'm really not sure, I can’t see much upside at all. I wouldn't surprised to see it back at 2p in the next few days and pretty much stay there. Crap

Thanks Ash. Makes sense, I do have basic tax knowledge so what you say makes sense (eg double taxation relief)
John

...and that's without vaulting over the massive main spar first! I think all on the board feel the same way, and its good that Dr T (I assume) feels the same way about keeping their memories alive.

Hi I am full of admiration for anyone who went to war in the Mosquito, or indeed any WW2 aircraft that I am now more intimately acquainted with. My Dad was a nav in Lancasters. Even the Mosquito is hard to get into and claustrophobically small. The one that really astonished me (apart from the BP Defiants doomed turret gunner) was the Me109 (Bf109 for the purists!) -Now that really is like strapping on a tiny coffin. I count myself lucky not to have been 'of age' in the period

Awesome DC. I know it sounds daft but it isn't until you get in one that you really appreciate that it really is wood. Just about everything - if it had cupholders they would have been wooden I'm sure

Wellington a duster? Must have been before my time here, you lot must go back a bit!
Apologies for any bad memories revisited!

Correct Bloobird, there were far more Hurricanes involved, but the actual kills per aircraft was pretty much identical, made you question the Spitfires actual superiority - in fact it was better in many respects but harder to build and could absorb far less battle damage than the Hurricane. We also have a Boulton Paul Defiant. Now that was scary, been in that too. The rear turret gunner, in a bale out situation, was supposed to rotate the turret (if the mech still worked), drop into the rear fuselage, crawl along, release an escape hatch and drop out. Surprisingly, only the pilot usually survived a shot down Defiant....

Some of you chaps/ chapesses may know I volunteer at the RAF museum. We have the worlds oldest Spitfire, a Mk 1 with black/white underside which was the original colour scheme apparently. We also have a beautiful Mk X1X photo reconnaissance Spitfire which is just a beast - huge Griffon engine and light totally unarmed airframe. And we have James Mays plastic full sized Spitfire clogging up one hanger which we all want to drag outside and set fire to (don't tell Greta) - especially as its continued presence is one reason they are talking about getting rid of our Junkers JU52 (actually a Spanish CASA but looks identical). Talking of Bombers, how about Wellington (we have one in bits, and I believe the Warwick was developed from it) or best of all Mosquito -I had the privilege to sit in ours the other day to clean the canopy.

Yep, saw MOTD, good win. Hope RNS, would make sense with the meetings planned. Lets hope

Good weekend DJ

Noel, I'm not taking the p*ss now. I haven't read your stuff but I think you may be taking this a bit seriously. This is just a chat board about shares. You want to back off a bit and stop making this your life.