Member Info for johnpwh

Am I Mr Thick or was there never really a question that Hurricanes assets WOS were a single accumulation? There a 'kin big ridge running down the middle. But what do I know

Some reassurance will be felt with another off take (take off?) of oil from the AM. Last month was 14th, they have been as regular as clockwork so surely another well before Christmas weather permitting.
Being a glass half full sort of chap my view is that the news flow is not bad, we have dropped the best part of 25% to levels not seen since early 2018 (prior to the AM chugging from Dubai, prior to FOIL, prior to a whole list of successes) - Warren Buffet would say sell when others are going bonkers splashing the cash, grow a pair and buy when everyone is moping around shouting 'its sooooo unfair'. Or something like that. I bought again yesterday. And you should see my pair :-)

Assets remain the same? So we retain 51% of Red Rabbit and 100% of Salinbas after the deal? Not as I understand. The only assets unaffected (at the moment at least, those in W Turkey are bound to be absorbed into the JV in time which itself is a huge cost) are probably associated with the Cyprus deal.
Do we honestly need to invite the new partner in to Western Turkey to clear the way to Tavsan production when we seem to have coped perfectly well in getting the Kiziltepe production plant into operation without them? We already have a respected Turkish partner in Proccea don't forget. To gain the influence of the new partner (and cede overall control to them which I notice Andrew picked up on in the Proactive interview) we are to be giving away 53.92% ((51 - 23.5)/51) of our W Turkey assets for $25m. That 51% was going to be worth a small fortune over the next 10 years, especially when Tavsan kicks in - that is why I was hoping to see an updated Ash spreadsheet to do a DCF calc and work out a balancing discount rate to equate the net income given up to $25m.
No matter hard I try I don't like this deal, and the market seems to be agreeing. I have sold a small proportion of my shares now but am pretty well stuck with the rest at the moment due to the decline in the share price back to square 1. I sincerely believe the 'old' Ariana would at least have doubled in price, maybe more, over the next year when free of Kiziltepe debt, strong income of getting on for £8m pa initially and with Tavsan progressing positively towards its own production plant. I cannot see what would cause a similar escalation in share price now, I wouldn't be surprised to see it stuck between here and 2.5p for the foreseeable future. Believe me I hope I'm wrong.

And the sale of a further 1m @ 2.12 wasn't me either.
Back to where we started pretty much. Good deal?

Sorry, but Salinbas JV - yes.
Venus minerals - yes.
Diluting the interests in Western Turkey by over 50% where everything is planned within existing finances, will not be advanced timewise by this new partnership, where available bank loans for Tavsan are already nailed on, and within 6 months will produce very significant revenue for maybe 10 years hence - no, absolutely definitely not.
Good for shareholders - who knows, no one can say that with certainty one way or the other.
23.5% of a larger entity? An entity whose assets are ...….. what we currently own 100% and 51% of.

I use iWeb, which seems to have a fixed £5 commission. I suspect the 500k limit is not so much what the marketmaker imposes but to do with deal value - 1m would by > £20k, suspect iWeb want more commission for that

I will say that the 1,000,000 sale was not me! I have never been able to get a quote for 1m, either buy or sell. Most I have seen is a quote for 500k

autobits,
With due respect you can do what you like with your ticks!
I have not said whether I have already sold or not. Nor will I, as that is purely my business. I have shared that I intend to reduce my holding, but whether I have done so already, and if so whether I have further to go, is down to my alcohol infused brain.
Sorry not to be more explicit, but I am quite private.

Just read a message by Biggles on ADFVN that really made me think logically about this.
I oppose the deal, you know that, but should I sell because of it? On the assumption that it is a done deal, which I think likely because there are few if any who feel the way I do, then I need take a prospective not retrospective view. I shouldn't necessarily sell because I preferred Ariana mk 1, that is the past. Instead there is a simple question to consider about Ariana mk 2 - and that is if I weren't already invested here, was researching today about the company totally afresh (including the MoU), would I invest in it?
And the answer is yes. I (significantly) preferred Ariana mk 1 but forgetting that I see that Ariana mk 2 would definitely a buy at these prices.
Sadly, and despite that logic, I got carried away with enthusiasm for Ariana mk 1 in the past and am OTT with my holding in what is a very, very small market cap company. I don't want to discuss the amount I hold but I virtually doubled my holding since the London meeting in May, and I had a lot then! I do have to have a trim to make me more at ease, but will remain a significant holder by anyone's standards, I suspect on a par with the most heavily invested on this board.
John

Seems to be. You have to go back to April 2018 to see this price level.
To a non oilman like me the RNS, on second reading, is not at all bad. It implies connectivity due to oil grade, a reasonable (if presumably not commercial) flow, little to no water and continued success at Lancaster without qualification (which was promised if problems arose there). What is lacking is presentation, the lack of 'pleased' in the first paragraph (I hate the lack of that!) and the general tone of bland facts with little supporting explanation. Compared to a couple of years back Dr.T seems a timid elusive creature (except when snapping at ill informed analysts). At one time you couldn't get him off Malcys sofa. Maybe he's changed, now sports a purple Mohican and wears nothing but Sports Direct tracksuits. I don't think he has time for private investors, which isn't to his credit.

Dibs
I normally agree with you. By ' someone of our number on this BB wanting to lower their exposure. Yes, it’s irritating' I assume you mean I am potentially the irritation? That is disappointing. Whether or not it is me selling is immaterial, I am not going to confirm or deny. This isn't a team game and we have to follow our own instincts. I have made plain 2 things and been very open about it - a) that I feel overexposed to AAU now that b) I don't agree that the terms of the proposed deal are necessarily in the companys interest or mine. Don't worry, I don't expect any tick ups

Ta ADUK!
See its recovering. Its gonna be a long haul, longer than we thought, but we have one fantastic producing asset the quality of which has not been qualified in any way. And its OUR asset, 100%. The ones proving more troublesome are not, there we have only partial interest. I know which way round I prefer it. Glass half full chap me.
Saw some posts on a Spirit sale? Didn't have time to read. Guess this wont help

Well, inspired by ADUKs inspirational calmness I bought back the 50k shares I sold last month BUT....
Just remember if this goes wrong I will look for you (France is quite small isn't it?), I will find you , and...… :-)
Cheer up chaps and chapesses. Suns shining even in Telford

Good or bad? To a numpty like me the clue is the lack of the word 'pleased' in the RNS

I don't really agree that in this case the SP would rise in anticipation of a dividend. The share price (very imperfectly) admittedly) is just a present value of the assets of the company and how they will eventually be transformed into cash flows for the purchaser of a share at a point in time. A change of policy to pay a dividend doesn't increase or decrease the value of the company's assets - that is until the day it goes xd, when there is a drop in the company's assets equal to the amount distributed and a corresponding SP drop. I suppose it may cause upward pressure on the SP due to some individuals wanting to receive a distribution treated to be taxed as income, and who may even also conceivably want to generate a capital loss - but is just as likely, as I said earlier, to provide selling pressure from non ISA/SIPP holders preferring not to pay additional income tax and use unused Capital Gains allowance and/or pay 10%/20% on gains instead. Of course with this share such strategies may be pointless as they will prove relatively expensive because of the bid/offer spread. We'll know soon enough!

I concede your point on dividend taxation, it is 32.5% not 40%. I cant say I agree on other points, in particularly that the directors will not consider their share options, or indeed might waive them, or that the SP wont drop by approximately the dividend to be paid on the xd date - a buyer the day before the xd date gets the dividend, a buyer the following day doesn't so the Share Price has to reflect that and always does. That reflection is unlikely to be exactly identical but will be close enough.
Anyway, I seem so at odds with people now and I never have liked arguments, so while I enjoy a good debate I think its time to keep quiet.

Yes Benjie. There seems little point to me in a large one off dividend followed by a lack of regular dividends. Cant see the latter being afforded when nearly 54% of the income stream we were expecting from a debt free Red Rabbit js being lost due to the proposed deal. Furthermore there are quite a few enthusiastic holders here with sizable holdings, and if those holdings are not held in ISAs or SIPPS then any such large dividend paid will be taxed at 40% for the part that falls into the higher rate tax band (or more for even higher earners) - that could lead to a sell off prior to the xd date in order to pay CGT (and use the 12k annual allowance) at the maximum of 20% instead. So the drop in SP could be two fold. If there is to be a substantial return to shareholders it would be better spread over 2 or more tax years imo. Interesting point you make about the share options, one I hadn't thought of. Think you may have anticipated the answer to your own question there...….

Hi, I feel your pain, not sympathy but empathy. I've been in this position many times over the last 35 years of investing (or is it gambling on AIM?). We've chatted before on this Board, as you may remember I was full of this share maybe 3 years ago, told friends to look at it, thought CG was a nice, genuine, trustworthy bloke (which he may well be). But got out, at a loss, when things didn't 'smell' right. RNS' about tiny orders, a factory that never seemed to get finished. The huge margins but mounting losses, the Stone alliance thing when the company was barely keeping its head above water, doubts that CG had the right experience to run the operation especially where the mines were situated, just the feeling that if something sounds too good to be true it probably is. My best wishes to you, this legal challenge may come good so I will keep watching. There is massive potential here, like SXX, just not convinced CG/ Fox are the ones to exploit it.

I haven't sold today!

Yes Cosford.
I know the B36 - sort of spanned era between the B29 & B52. The props were pushers? We have several German aircraft as well as many Brits, the only American ones I can think of off hand are an Catalina (standing outside and not looking happy), an F111, a Sabre (hanging from the ceiling upside down) and a trainer (but its not a Harvard). I've been told there is a very poorly Mustang in one of the storage hangers on the far side of the airfield.