Member Info for johnpwh

Pretty close. Soon see a bit of mating

Treaty
That was my immediate thought too

Strangerstill
Don't want to keep reacting to posts, but I think yours is a very subjective opinion. As are mine of course, I freely admit.
Please don't view this as criticism. It is just my view.
The estimate for Tavsan plant was $20m (fairly sure $ not £) though Dr S did recently state this may slip a bit. It is a simple heap leach plant with final processing at Kiziltepe. $30m seems very pessimistic. What is more payback of the Tavsan loan has always been stated at 1.1 years from memory, and with higher metal prices I cant see that changing.
Why will Salinbas be sold into the current JV at 3x cost? That contracted basis is only RR, and then at present only for Kizilcukur not even Invindri - I have clarified this with Dr S in the past. Certainly doesn't apply to Salinbas within the current JV.
If we are putting forward scenarios then I would prefer that the current JV continues unchanged (and fantastically attractive to current shareholders in my opinion with massive net cashflow from April 2020) and a totally separate new JV covering Salinbas, to be negotiated with or without Proccea. That new JV to be announced in the next 2-3 years after further drilling by the AAU team of highly competent geologists who will further map, de-risk and add value to the NE Turkey operation.
If the MoU fails, I do see a short term drop in SP but I personally think a far better future for us. As DJ intimates, this deal is not necessarily being put forward because it is in PI shareholders best interest, it may be because it is in the Boards best interests - unfortunately that are not necessarily one and the same thing.

Why are these 2 bods posting om the UKOG board about HUR. Seems odd to me. Cant be bothered to read them, I've got a bit of paint I'd rather watch dry.
Night all

Yes, and unimpressed.
Claims of 30% increase in SP. Yes, doesn't mention how little time that increase endured though. Mid market price today is around 2.20p. I believe the SP was 2.10p on the day before the announcement. So more like 5% now. I think that we could well have achieved 5% with post election market euphoria and the Cyprus announcement anyway.
No mention that the interest in the Red Rabbit JV, and hence receivable revenue, is being depleted by over 50% as part of the deal. Which it is, I don't believe that has been shelved because it has not been mentioned, just that the title of piece being about Salinbas not W.Turkey is being taken rather literally.
Mention of costs for AAU being funded possibly by convertible debt funding. Costs on that scale? Gosh, has the open chequebook been lost? That opens the door to the company carrying debt and possible equity dilution, I'm sure we all look forward to those.
I could go on but I think I will be accused of being a deramper, which since I still hold significant equity here I really am not. Unhappy yes, a deramper no.

Pretty much to the day its been 2 years since we have been at the current level. Anyone tell me why? Think I'm having another drink before beddybyes. Night all

Just home. Bit piddled. Nothing to say whatsoever so..... Happy Christmas chaps & chapesses, it will all be fine.
p.s. Hic!

Malcy interview? You've got a good memory!

Aqua
Todays drop is clearly due to this mornings RNS
….hang on, there wasn't one

Ooops, sorry daltry, didn't see your post

Profit taking?? Must be someone working on a lean margin!

With little in the near future except a new shuttle tanker on or around 22nd Dec, I am resigned that the low 30s is the new norm. Bit of a shocker! Happy Christmas everyone!

Thanks, also my hope.

Nice to see a post from the Rev
At the risk of incurring the wrath of certain members of the collective, my office worker take on wc is that
a) DrT explicitly says that from analysis it is perched water so ok with me, I don't believe he could afford to lie on this
b) Additionally, and reinforcing Dr Ts view, If the heels of the wells are so close then I would have thought logically that if one well were drawing non perched water then the other would too. Trapped water in the particular area being drawn by 7Z is the only explanation.
Promise never ever to mention again. Till next time at least.
Like others I am concerned at the talk that the expensively drilled, rather splendidly successful, LC well may be plugged and abandoned if permissions to tie in to AM by the OGA cant be obtained in what seems to be a relatively short time frame. Is there no appeals procedure to extend this? Also, and I reiterate I am a landlubber, how do you plug and abandon a suspended well. You cant just send a bloke down in speedos with a snorkel and a few trowels of concrete, surely its a big operation?

Hi Van
As you may expect I don't really agree with some of your points. I'll address them individually
1, The argument you put forward is essentially logical if you assume that a MC of c. £23m truly fully valued Ariana Mk1. In fact yes, then it would then be a cracking deal. But since we have both been on record for several months saying that on fundamentals (not least of which was the imminent flood of cash from a 51% interest in W.Turkey operations) AAU was 2,3,4... times undervalued than the argument doesn't really hold water. And the BOD are on record as saying themselves that the MC very significantly undervalued the company, and you do normally put faith in their judgement
2. What monetarisation? A small special dividend which Dr S has said will be a proportion of the $5m received for 17% of Salinbas? Given the unchanged SP punters could monetise similarly by selling a few shares - AAU Mk1 was over 2.40p in July if you remember.
3. Fair point, provided you think the growth percentage will exceed the proportion of assets given away.
4. Again fair point
Yes more results due. At one time this old saddo would have been excited by that prospect. I ought to get out more I know. Now I think ok, but since we will only have a 23.5% interest in future then I'm in no hurry to read it. I'm not being facetious, this company no longer excites me because of the proposed asset & control giveaway.
I do have faith in the BOD leading Ariana Mk1. Not so sure now they are playing with big fish who have sharp teeth. Essentially Dr S is a fantastic geologist. I have met and respect him. Not sure his heart is as CEO if that means handing over the geology to others. So the company swings back with this deal towards a purer exploration agenda, but seems to be at the price of giving away productive and very profitable W.Turkey assets at a knock down price where no help from a new partner is even needed. The AAU/Proccea JV should remain as is imo. Exploration focus is not the company profile I want. The only thing I can think of to challenge my view on this deal is that MDV seems supportive. He, as we know, is a large (maybe the largest private) shareholder. That almost alone makes me question my current judgement, I have met and respect him too.
Finally, I think Joe has made the point well but I reinforce that I am not to blame for the SP being c.2.20p to anything like the extent you imply. You flatter my superhuman powers! I have sold around 1/2% of the company equity. That is not enough to explain the drop, not only are others obviously selling large(r)) amounts but the SP drop also highlights that punters aren't buying. If this deal was that bloody marvellous then others would be mopping up mine and other sellers shares as soon as they hit the market.

Well I don't see 4p or more any time soon any more or I wouldn't have sold what I have!
Feel sad because I don't think AAU had a bigger supporter than me on this board. I just don't get this deal, at least not for someone who wants a return in the short rather than long term.
Tick up for you by the way!
ps Wonder what would happen to the SP now if the deal fell through - so Ariana Mk1 + the Cyrus announcement, especially as 'debt free' April approaches? Just a thought....

Sorry DJ, I was having a thick moment and misunderstood.
You sum it up well. I don't think much 'windfall' will be distributed as a special divi, in fact Dr S has already implied that the SD will be a % of the $5m that the new partner pays for 17% of Salinbas. The rest I guess including the $25m will be earmarked for exploration. Further I agree with another poster who pointed out that a large SD is very unlikely at least until the current share options have expired for senior staff, because the net assets of the company will drop and take the SP with it. I don't think we honestly expect the BOD to be that philanthropic.
I also agree with Benjie that I would expect regular divis to normally to be paid from regular income, but since AAU seem to be giving away over half of that then I would have thought divis unlikely until at least Tavsan is also in production and debt free - which is about 3 years away. Salinbas will be advanced undoubtedly, but only probably halving the 10 year time line to production so still too distant to boost SP in the short term.
In other words you are spot on. There is nothing to drive this price any more. You thought 3p by Easter, to be honest I though 4p or more by this time next year when the market saw Ariana Mk1 receiving large divis from a debt free RR operation and a positive road map to Tavsan in which it benefitted 51%. Now I see no driver. I have been selling, nearly 50% of my holding, but I think stopped now as I may as well hang on at these low prices because Ariana Mk2 is still attractive, just less in my opinion than its forebear. If the price rises I may well sell more. The new partner, whoever it is, didn't get big by playing nicey nicey with minnows like AAU. It will have used its size to drive a very very hard bargain.

Hi DJ
As always respect your views. But this time we are not talking about the quarterly production results or some half expected positive drilling outcome. This (the MoU) is a chuck it all in a bag, swirl it round, chuck it in the air and see how it lands sort of news. Its a total seismic change to company structure, assets owned and indeed cedes majority control over the assets that AAU have nurtured and developed very competently over many years. So no, I wouldn't expect the SP to wander up a bit, pause for thought and gradually drift. If this is a good deal I would have expected it to have gone up and stayed up. And it very clearly hasn't.

What do you put it down to? Especially as today the threat of a 'climate change polluters' tax as pledged by comrade Corbyn has obviously been lifted. I assumed that BP would rise today when I heard the GE result.

I hope the BOD are noting the downwards pressure on the SP, it clearly indicates that investors (including prospective investors) are not universally happy. There are not that many sells, but equally if Ariana Mk2 is such an attractive proposition compared to Mk1 then they should be asking why no one is buying either, especially as the SP is now barely changed from the pre RNS level.