Member Info for johnpwh

Agree Albi. Its all about the current drill, nothing else matters. The arrival of NO is of no consequence as far as the SP is concerned.

Unfortunately the explosion in PM metals predicted by a few seems to be in reverse.
Think we may have to wait more than a year to be millionaires Rodney. (apologies to DJ who may not understand that reference!)

Must admit I have cut my exposure here, not by that much (about 1/3) so still hold a decent chunk by anyones standards. Just got a bit of a case of cold feet!

Yes, interesting about both AMC and EUA. I feel AAU is underpinned by stability, the other two far more speculative and potentially volatile. Both now exceed our MC, a month ago AAUs exceeded both (possibly combined). It is interesting to see what a little 'fame' does - as I write LSE is recording 1 deal for AAU, compared to 88 for AMC and 336 for EUA! The company needs to get the message, the progress, the production, the potential out there.

Oops! Ash, sorry I had no idea I was altering your spreadsheet, I thought the hyperlink just opened as a copy on my desktop.
I realised things weren't right (the row numbers kept moving as I typed functions), couldn't see why so though I abandoned, downloaded and saved a copy to my laptop hard drive and worked on it there (and matches your spreadsheet after your amendments).
My apologies, these computers - they will never catch on you know

Ash
You've started me off on one now.
I have added another column of increase/decrease in stock, which is quite interesting. Each month we look at the headline figure we are given (eg 6933 for Q3 2019) but really that should be looked at after considering stock level variation if the latter is material. For instance the 'poor'Q2 2019 looks even worse when the 309oz decease in stock levels is also taken into account. So maybe we need to look at the results including stock adjustment each month, although financials will obviously only reflect variation in stock when accounts are drawn up - talking of which can we tie up stock levels predicted in the spreadsheet in the accounts?
Of course this is supposition, especially in light of other explanations put forward. One for the next London presentation (incidentally doesn't look as if there will be an end of year one this year)

Ash
Been away a couple of days and only just got round to looking at the spreadsheet.
It does seem odd to be carrying such high levels of stock after we have been told that the metal is sold immediately on production. On the other hand this is a snapshot on the last day of the month, and they aren't going to run off to market every time an ounce is produced. However 1000 oz or more does seem subjectively high, if nothing else it poses a security risk on site, but since the figure is fairly constant each month it does seem to explain why recovery rates and production don't tie up.
I note the tailings figure, which sums to c.5000oz since production began. I know there is a 'tailings dam' but at that point my knowledge is exhausted. Is this low grade material put back through the production process with higher grade 'new' ore, is it simply only used to infill the exhausted pits, or will it be subject to some heap leaching process (as I understand it used for low quality ore) further down the line?

I think we are all suffering 'Ariana fatigue'. And I'm not talking about the overrated primadonna singer

...and I have to admit I was ignorant to the fact that a troy ounce is not the same as an ounce. That's a grammar school education for you! I now know that a troy ounce is used to measure 4 commodities - gold, silver, platinum and gun powder.

Nope, and I admit I didn't check it. I re read the RNS in case the recovery rate was not specifically for gold, but it does imply it is.

Thanks Ash, good work

Hi Ash, a few observations on your impressive piece of work:
Dr S acknowledged recently that the Tavsan loan is likely to be in excess of 20m now, though $ or £ wasn't specified. The implication was that it would not be massively more though.
£1m costs at Kizilcukur may be conservative, both in view of recent drilling there and the recent deal to buy out smelter rights and database purchase. Does your model take into account that it is the JV paying the 3x rather than Proccea - so effectively AAU is putting £1.5 m in to get £3.0m out using your figures?
Lastly, is the PE ratio of 10 rising to 12 correct given that we are talking about W Turkey in isolation - LOM is currently 6 years from late 2017 although it seems inevitable this will rise. But I'm not sure PE should be as high as 12 in 2025 when the LOM (at that point) will be, say, 8-10 years at most unless there are significant developments?
The above is not criticism, just observations for discussion
John

Thanks Ash. Have only had a quick look at the moment (just got in) but looks reassuring! Goodnight all

If I had had the good fortune to have been invested there I would have bailed. I don't see that the RNS' have warranted this reaction which was at one time 8x the SP of the previous week. Seems to point to an illogical market. It is disappointing here at the moment - 6 trades today, EUA with an MC 3x ours (now, less of course 2 weeks ago) 1950!!

Certainly the news flow that we saw last week has dried to less than a trickle!

as usual, 1.98/ 2.135

Suhail,
Bloody hell mate, you're having a good old chat with yourself there!

Thank you for posting the link. Would have liked Andrew to have asked about Tavsan EIA progress/ dates, and maybe the political situation but you cant have everything! Otherwise a good update with nothing I could see to cause concern. Does sound like 2020 drilling at Salinbas will target geological understanding, which is understandable, rather than target areas where grades may give a short term SP boost

Well that's an unusual morning, a strong start!
I am hoping the board give real focus to Tavsan now, with the publication soon of the EIA. Keeping the market informed at each step to reinforce that the doubling of production is not (hopefully) too far distant. Other information extends mine life, which is of course important. But the message of doubling of income, especially in comparison to the MC, should have real impact

Not a problem DJ. Just come back from the pub, so anything I say the rest of the night will be b******s!