Member Info for johnpwh

Don't know VanVan. It's all dragging on a bit, pretty much 5 months so far?
We all have differing views/ dreams. fantasies about what will happen, tailored probably to our own situations. I don't know what I want at the moment, My instinctive initial objections to the loss of control to a third party implied by the MOU remain undiminished, but I admit the deal does look more attractive due to the 2020 guidance in W. Turkey being perhaps significantly less than I hoped - and with that lessened guidance comes likely increased cost per ounce (fixed costs remaining pretty much unchanged in total, variable costs also probably higher, mitigated by healthy PoG). But no more Tavsan development news means years to wait for a debt free contribution there, plus the possibility of eventual Covid-19 related shutdown of the mining operation, makes the one off cash payment more attractive to me than it did. Would still mean ending up with a very different company to the one I invested in, but that's progress! I just hope the MOU terms aren't altered to our detriment by the AAU BOD/ prospective partner to force the deal to happen.

Glad I only put 3k into this a couple of weeks back!
Never mind, its a bottom drawer share 'investment' (if that is the correct term), put it in, close it shut and forget about - hope when you eventually reopen the drawer there will be something there other than moths.

Have to wait for the JV announcement with the mystery suitor brings. I am fearful that the current situation (think you can guess what I mean) will give the aforementioned suitor an excuse to try to amend terms in their favour. I have no basis for this other than if this powerful group can shaft AAU it probably will!
Hope all are well.

I think the only good thing about Mexico is the food.
Hope everyone enjoyed the blue day today

Think I'll get back on the bike

DiveCentre
There will be a nasty hangover if Opec+ doesn't!

I wouldn't disagree DB. There is a theoretical price, but that is still subject to market sentiment, ramping, shorting, any number of pressures. The re opening of markets for the cars (or not) will have a massive affect on SP as will the recommencement of production whether that is earlier or later than expected (though I'm not sure when that expectation is!!). We are passengers here....
Another consideration is whether the world will be the same after this is over. Certainly not in the short term as everyone will remain paranoid, so I expect pubs etc to be badly attended for months. Then what? An explosion of bohemian excess like the roaring 20s? Or frugality because of tight money and unemployment? Will the worlds appetite for products like Aston Martin collapse or expand? I don't know!

Hmmm. Texas is very Republican. Can see them supporting the Democrats sadly, even though by most standards the Democrats are pretty right wing!

Funny how you predict things before you reach them Captain. I wasn't expecting to read 'US Oil companies and US companies'.
I was expecting a single word. Trump!
I agree with you but not wholeheartedly - but only because the corporate greed of the land of the free is not (imo) the biggest problem at the moment. That accolade belongs to that ignorant, power crazed, racist, misogenistic moronically thick orange pillock.

Yes, you are reading it wrong. Just because you heavily discount a rights issue it doesn't mean the share price will and up there! Mathematically think about it as a weighted average.
In simple terms assume (yes a leap of faith required here) the company was worth 250p on the day the issue was announced and there were 1 million shares in issue (to make the maths easier).
So before the company 'worth' is 1m x 250p = £2500000.
So the issue happens and the company receives 4 x 1000000 x 30p = £1200000
So now (ignoring costs sustained) the company 'worth' is now £2.5m + £1.2m = £3.7m
But there are now 1m + 4m = 5m shares in issue so, all other things being equal, the theoretical Share Price is now:
£3700000/ 5000000 = 74p. I know I scaled the shares in issue but that cancels anyway so we aren't far off where we should be.

Personally I want there to be some production constraint on the US. I would rather suffer the pain a bit longer to get that. You cant have the rest of the industry cutting to increase PoO for the US to exploit at will, there is no long term stability in that.

Still here. Still ok. Still drinking but in fairness also still using my exercise allowance to the full. Trouble is the bike is starting to creak! Must get my spanners out.
Agree with Daltry & co, 70p is a daft prediction at the moment. The future isn't just about HURs continued steady development, it about PoO. The thought of $50 PoO is a pipe dream at the moment let alone the level that would give us the highest ever SP.

Cant see why not Guv, the 'new' shares are the same class as the old so in terms of the market all the shares after 20th will be identical.
There is bound to be a small discount in the nil paid shares because, unlike the fully paid shares, your are pretty exposed until 20th due to the gearing inevitable in holding the part paids (fully paid down say 10% would mean c.20% loss in the part paids) . The discount being described here by posters does subjectively seem a bit excessive.

Tbh 99.9999% of us are amateurs. I sometimes wonder if I am an investor or compulsive gambler

Logically things like supermarkets, insurers are a buy (depending on sector, motor insurance claims will have fallen dramatically), pharmaceuticals maybe, whereas oils, clothing, retailing in general and catering in particular are a sell. But the market is fast, adjustments already made so 'spoons has already bottomed out and has risen significanty and supermarkets barely moved from when the FTSE was at its height. Be careful with thinking at the moment - some unpromising socks (AML anybody?) are probably oversold. My one red flag is debt. I can put up with equity issues (depending on what, why and how much) but heavily indebted companies are no go for me.

Ha! No point being glum is there. One thing this pants situation is teaching us all is a long overdue realisation that health is a damn sight more valuable than wealth. Though I admit having both would be a bit more fab

Sell? I don't know Guy@1977. I'm John@1957. Us proper old codgers have stiff upper lips and staying power.....

Clearly this is being taken seriously, neither the Russians nor KSA have thrown their toys out the pram (again) and walked away. So we are left with the knob Trump who thinks he can order the rest of the world to slash production while not including the US shale producers in the sacrifice. Painful though it will be in the short term OPEC+ has got to call his bluff for long term stability, and tell him that the US cuts or US shale will be bankrupted. I hope (for us) common sense prevails here or maybe the unthinkable $10 is possible. Going to be a nervy week.

Obviously from what I read the PoO could vary significantly if this OPEC meeting succeeds. Or fails. May as well toss a coin.
Given the AM is currently mating with the SN, do we know at what point the price for the cargo is fixed?

Well my opinion (you're going to get it whether you like it or not!) is that cars ain't what they used to be! Modern cars are faster, hold the road better, hardly rust, are more reliable. And dull as dishwater. They all look the same, they are anonymous. They have become appliances, white goods like a fridge or cooker. Has anyone here ever seen a red Jag XJ120 roadster in the sunshine on a hot sunny day? Beautiful. And that is AMs market. The last desirable cars. The last classics in fact - there will be few if any ordinary classics after the mid noughties, no 'digital' classics because they will cease to be maintainable with their antique computers failing. Ordinary cars will be electric imo. Fuel cell will be the Betamax to electrics VHS. The infrastructure wont be there in time, and recharging of electric cars will get faster. But what of 'supercars'? They will for the foreseeable future remain petrol, at best hybrid. They must make noise, lots of it. They are about stirring the soul, not transport. The average Ferrari does what, 2000 miles a year maximum? At that mileage what does it matter what its powered by? The only thing that will stop them being at least partially IC powered is if the are legislated against