Member Info for johnpwh

I doubt that the terms will be improved. I have been fearful that they would be reduced (NewCo has bigger teeth) - recent developments should hopefully help ensure that doesn't happen. With recent positive news there is also some less so - 2020 production guidance at Kiziltepe is 20% lower than last years, and it is partly that which NewCo is buying into. One bright spot for us is that with this delay the effective date for commencement of the new JV is being pushed further and further back, meaning AAU should enjoy several months more as 51% beneficial owners of the (construction) debt free resource at Kiziltepe rather than 23.5. Just random thoughts. Hope you are all well and that DJ isn't drinking disinfectant.

You 'regret' LW? Doesn't sound like it!
Anyway, strong start and PoO edging towards 'proper' break even which we believe is 27p. If the SP just goes up by another 30p we'll all be happy...…..

Agreed, which is why I have put money in here - just wish I was investing today rather than when I did a couple of months back!

Seemed to be a sharp drop first thing, but recovered since. Probably due to people reading the Motley Fool article?
I found that article very reassuring. My experience as an investor is that if do the exact opposite of what Motley Fool recommends then you generally don't go far wrong!

Not a question of being mugs cadelin, more necessity. Though oil will be important for much longer than the green brigade would have you believe (and covid doesn't exactly advance the cause with abundant cheap oil sloshing about and governments with more pressing priorities like rescuing their economies from the mess this will leave) SA has to plan long term for the demise of oil - they are a bit of a one trick pony.

Well I may as well say it if no one else has. The Chinese increasing their stake prior to a bid? After all they are supposed to be buying up cheap oil to take advantage of the current crisis. Why not shares in the green sector?

Aduk.,
Than you for the answer on salinity, I do appreciate it through my Shiraz induced stupor. Been a funny old day hasn't it?

Very true. If PoO doubled then HUR SP would treble. No question in my mind.
More DrT tries to reassure about the water cut the more it re awakens the elephant in the room (whatever that means).
I still think permission to tie back LC would do wonders for the SP even at the moment as it gives a second production area and displays confidence in Lincoln as a prospect for full development. If it were to be tied back, would it disrupt Lancaster production in order to evaluate reservoir data from the Lincoln flows? I assume not as they are considered to be separate reservoirs, but I dunno.
I still harbour my office worker logic that perched water, which I assume has been trapped in the structure for millions of years, should be measurably less saline than the Atlantic ocean outside. Wheras I assume aquifer water would be identically saline, so that would put it to bed once and for all. More than happy for someone to tell me I'm wrong, I really am so does anyone have a reason?

Think he meant $20 oil. The acting FD gave an explicit figure at $30 oil and then gave an adjustment for $20

Was a bit artificial maybe but the content was reasonably reassuring, at least to me. I noticed a distinct lack of the word 'Halifax' (unless I nodded off), specifically would have liked some reference to Lanfax still appearing to be one big accumulation which was definitely a message I got from the last CMD. The other message I got was that Lincoln looks a goer but Warwick may turn out to be a minger. Not much information about the Spirit relationship, though not sure what I was expecting there. Just something would have been nice, I didn't hear their name mentioned, just JV. Would have liked more detail why OGA aren't (apparently) allowing LC to be tied back, that's always seemed odd as surely OGA isn't there to make life hard for companies who have just laid out significant expenditure. End of year predicted cash balance at $20 Brent was a tad disconcerting, especially with 2022 on the not too far distant horizon.
I saw Debbie does Dallas I thought it quite artistic.

Just in from finishing the oil change. Can be bothered to crawl along the floor in the dust any more today, inspection will have to wait. Not like I can use the thing.
Cant remember the last time I saw so many posts on this board in a day. Probably 25th November and the subsequent few days

Had crossed my mind CK, and of course roadways need to be built into the pit sides for heavy dumpers. I suppose it depends on where the veins are relative to the current pit floor. So would the footprint of the pit have been planned to only mine as deeply as AAU have done so far? Guess it will be dependent on the geological discoveries made whether it is worthwhile or not. Will new permits be required if the footprint/depth is to be increased, I assume yes to those?

Trouble for me MM is that it isn't 50%. It is > 50% so control is being lost as well as RR revenue. That's worrying as the JVs agenda will (quite rightly, that is their BODs job) be forced by NewCo for the benefit of their shareholders not AAU or Procceas.
No one can say the proposed JV is the best option. Not me, not you, no one. All we can do is voice our own take on it for everyone to read and get the brain cells moving. Fun though talk about daft cars and football is, that is what the board is for!

I agree with what you say 4kandles, as fellow posters know I have questioned all along why Red Rabbit was being sacrificed for a deal just as it became debt free and spinning off significant free cash - and that was before the PoG increase to over $1720 - on November 25th it was around $1450.
As you say there seems to be mineralisation at depth at Arzu South. I'm a pen pusher not a mining engineer but it does seem logical that AS could carry on as an open pit operation given that the pre- stripping to any 'new' veins has already been done by the previous mining operations.
Even if the deal fell does fall through I can't see us returning to anything like 2p, and then a steady climb from there when the financial results from debt free operation become clear.
Trouble is as RR becomes more and more of a bargain to NewCo then it is hard to see them backing out, especially considering the cost of DD they have incurred. Which will mean AAU shareholders would have to reject, but given the BOD holdings (who I assume have pledged their support) that would be an uphill task. I would like to see AAU publish a definitive dividend policy, some shareholder sassume a deal would result in chunky special dividend followed by regular divis like a 'normal' company. I could well be wrong but I have my doubts. From memory (I am very old you know!) a special dividend has only been promised amounting to a 'proportion' of the amount received for the Salinbas part of the deal - was that $5m? As for regular divis that is then a function of the reduced ownership of RR, the only productive resource likely for years after taking into consideration the amount the company will want to retain to finance its explorations elsewhere including Cyprus.

Sadly all the long termers here know that only too well and are not shocked (or disappointed). Hence our dismissive reaction to a prediction of 5p on this mornings news. Evens that we finish the day unchanged or down!

Like the sound of the Cortina. TVR used the rear lights on one of their models I think. The Grantura?
Suppose we should leave off topic for the weekend, still good though!

Well LoB & bb, my 1999 Elise has a flat bottom(!). I spent well over an hour yesterday afternoon taking the 20+ small bolts out that hold the 3 different alloy under floor panels off. The plan is to inspect all the hoses for deterioration and general look for leaks and give it a thorough inspection. No rust on it obviously except the drive shafts that are steel. I came to the conclusion I should have swept the garage floor first. Engine oil is now drained, so will refill that and inspection will commence today or tomorrow.

We don't need rampers on this board thanks. The profile of posters here is very well informed long term holders who attend company meetings and in many cases know the Directors. Don't need wild statements.

Rather nice to wake up to. Modest grades maybe but a lot of it. Only quickly scanned but did pick up on the diamond drilling at Arzu South. There has been hints that the pit there is not actually exhausted, that there may be further seams beneath those already mined plus a very rich underground area connecting it yo Arzu North

…...think the SP could go either way at the moment. Fingers and toes crossed