Member Info for johnpwh

I think the costs question is a bit convoluted so not surprised you struggle. There is an obvious negative (ie increasing cost) effect caused by moving to less rich satellite pits where far more material will need to be mined and processed for a given result. That is then confusion because current processing partially involves the remnants of richer ores from AS that were stockpiled before the move to AN. Then of course there is the increased cost (albeit temporary hopefully) of coronavirus but the bonus of the decline in Oil Price. The effect of the latter is also not obvious as came out in a slightly confused conversation I had with Dr S once, the conclusion of which was that the effect was somewhat 'smoothed' over time. I have to say that with poorer ore, the state right and general inflation the outlook for costs is in my mind higher - even if $600 average is achieved over LOM we have enjoyed a quite considerable period of <<$600 so may therefore expect >$600 on average in future

Pardon my thickness but what is the significance of extending the P&A date of LC? Do we know exactly why it is being P&A'd? Are we just deferring the P&A expenditure or does the delay give us additional time to sort out whatever it is that is the obstacle and hook it up to the AM?

Ash
Your analysis well measured and factual as always. I too realised that costs will be significantly higher next quarter due to the Government rights - is there any accounting reason why this right (projected based on guidance) isn't spread across all quarters with a tidy up adjustment in July? That would be a more honest representation in my view. Does Dr S' oft repeated $600 long term cost include the State right? Does make me feel costs are understated, especially with the other costs that we know are omitted.
SP doing well, unusual in the current climate.

i cant agree about share buy backs. Talk about 5 loaves and 2 fishes - how far do you think this cash pile is going to stretch? The biggest danger to this company is running out of cash. The second biggest danger is running out of cash. I think you can guess the third, fourth ......…

think you'll find Mclarens announcement of 1200 job losses might explain!

I know nothing ( I want to make that clear) but it would seem to me that MB is shaping up to come in line with what VW/Audi and BMW have - add flagship brand(s). What price Aston (grand touring) and McLaren (supercars) joining Mercedes? Both Aston and McLaren are struggling, both have connections already, both could be bought (I would have thought) out with what they find down the side of Daimler AGs sofa

Longwait
Stop being such a boomer/gammon. Yes I know the rest of us are but leave yellowman alone! Nice to have someone on here who isn't grey. In normal times I expect yellowman would be out doing the debauched things we enjoyed at his age - you do remember the 1970s?
Yellowman welcome, you didn't choose an easy share to invest in if this is your first!

Final thought, the current CBs were issued in July 2017. That was raised against a background of nothing but promises and potential - no AM, no oil produced. Different now, even if things aren't going as swimmingly as we'd hoped

No, I meant a fresh issue of bonds to repay the maturing ones, though extension may be possible but I would expect the bondholders to extract a fearsome price. If a company is viable, has good assets and throwing off cash it should have no problem in securing new finance. The problem occurs when the company which wants to borrow is a basket case. If it cant raise new finance then the existing bond holders will seize the assets. They come further up the food chain than us equity holders.

Longwait
I was thinking of little else during my daily pedal which I'm just back from. My mood varied from 'this is sodding hopeless' to 'perhaps its not bad'. The CBs are worrying people, and indeed worrying me. But should we? Provided we don't default on the periodic payments on the current bonds, and have a viable profitable business when the loan is due, (as we did only 6 months ago when PoO was far higher) then the inability to repay the loan, or part of it, isn't necessarily an issue. PoO should recover before then, if it doesn't the viability of whole industry is doubtful. You don't give up because you cant become debt free, you refinance it. Most companies have debt. That may be a similar issue to the current one or, by then, we should be 'Brexited' and the Government may be more able to give State Aid....as may well Nicola Sturgeon perhaps? The important thing is that the company is generating cash by then and has progressed in proving the reserves. Then finance should be available. Now I need a shower.

HI
Would you mind expanding on your last para? Are the lack of ESPs the cause of this problem and/or are the solution once commissioning is complete?

Got me all excited then for a minute

With respect Jhaylock, as a significant shareholder if 'Dr Trice is just another AIM CEO selling a story to feather his own nest' then he is doing a fairly pants job of it. He must be hurting more than we are!

And believe me brokestocker (think I spelled right that time, sorry for that) I would love it to be possible. The strategy and cash management are the BODs decision, let hope they are up to it. The profits will obviously be well down on what seemed probable at the turn of the year, reserving to cover off the CBs (or a plan to refinance in the most non dilutative way) is vitally important.

I agree JTD. I feel someone just whacked me over the bonce with something heavy. But hey. Still breathing.
My only amusement this morning is an impressive number of filters applied. I have no problem whatsoever with doubters as long as their arguments are reasoned and objective. What I cant stand are the trolls, the 'I knew this was going to happen' wind up merchants and rampers (both up and down), Trouble is after today I've ended up with a sea of green!

brokektocker
In principle what you suggest seems attractive. However the year end cash balance is projected to be far less (depending on PoO in the meantime) - see the CMD presentation - remembering that the figures given by the acting CFO will need further downwards modification due to the unspecified lower production and potentially greater per barrel costs.
There is a lot of calls on that cash balance at the moment

Aduk
I will take that as a partial compliment!

Mad? You might well be certifiable!

Algu
'This process will result in a period of production substantially below forward guidance of net 18,000 bopd and Hurricane is therefore suspending previous full year guidance of net 17,000 bopd'
I don't interpret this as saying the guidance has dropped from 18 to 17k, or am I missing something?

haggis
What are your thoughts, I think until today you have been a supporter? It seems beyond reasonable doubt that vast resources are undoubtedly there, but as time goes on it seems increasingly evident that HUR aren't big enough (in financial terms) to extract it in a 'reasonable' time scale.
I have to suspect that provided crude recovers (which I have no doubt it will. Powerful countries economies, and the way the world currently works, depends on oil), HUR will be taken over for a bargain price by one on the big players. Sadly that price may be lower than many of us here have paid for our shares