Member Info for johnmcclean

Me too. Sorry 99. I know you can only write a sentence or two at a time. If I had known you could read more than 2 sentences I for one would have made more effort to entertain you.......or not.

"Am a bit surprised by your view on this one JohnMcClean - do you think FF wouldn't?"

I see absolutely no sign of SF moving right in any way. They are a party of protest with only one real agenda. They are a dark party. Do you or anyone else know who the leader of SF is? It's certainly not Mary Loo.
There are a few within FF that might be hungry enough for power to get into bed with SF but MM is not one of them. I believe he will not be the Taoisigh if FF ever decided to do a deal with them and it would be the end of FF in the long run. That may change in 20 years time but not for now.
After the last election FF members refused to go into collation with FG. It took a lot of persuasion and meetings to agree on the present arrangement. The animosity within FF membership towards SF is way worse. In fact I would say there is more chance of a FG -SF arrangement. FG do not feel near as threatened by SF as FF do.

Deal Icarus.

Wexford. you are right . SF are not a big risk to BoI. But FF is. If you listen to what they have been saying for the last few years they are coming down very hard on all banks. this is policy and I think will be into the future. It stands to reason. As Enda said once the Banks , FF and us the public were to blame the bust. The public blame FF and the banks. FF blame the banks.
Ireland is not a right of center country though. At best its center but I would say left of center . that's where policy points to and it's also where the majority of TD's lie. If FF (center left) were not supporting FG they would not find many right TD's to support them if any. I also think that FF and FG will be neck and neck but with FF possibly a head ahead after the next election. Time will tell on that though. SF are in a bit of an identity crisis at the moment. Their base is been squeezed by FF, Greens, Lab at one end and PBP at the hard end. They have a base of 12% or so but with all bases that can erode very quickly.

Voters are becoming very independent minded and are voting issue by issue and not as traditionally as they use to. Many Years ago the army wives ran a candidate in my area as a protest during a general election. They got 2 votes in my local polling station. My late father and myself knew where 1 vote came from but struggled with the other. It occurred to me that my brother was a bit of an activist in college at the time so I said " was it you by any chance". he sheepishly nodded his head. My father was disgusted and practically ran him out the door. Not for voting for the army candidate but for not voting for the party our family had voted for since independence. The same was true of every person in our local area and in most rural areas in Ireland. Now the voting members of my own family could between us vote for every candidate on the paper (except SF).

Icarus"Actually my biggest fear for BOI as a trade is following an election in Ireland,if Sinn Fein holds the balance of power and forms a coalition with FF,"

FF WILL NOT BE GOING INTO COALITION WITH SF. you can quote me on that after the next election no matter how the numbers end up.

If the ECB do decide to drop rates it won't be on the loans or mortgages , unless they want to head down the Danish route and have the banks pay you to borrow rather than the other way around. It will probably be on the banks overnight deposit rate and thus savings. Too my mind that make no sense. Instead of forcing banks to lend and people to spend it just makes them feel poorer and less secure. they batten down the hatches and sit on what they have. instead of buying and creating inflation you end up with deflation. That has been the case since the start of monetary easing and will continue to be the case. It's a destructive policy.

Germany is a good example. they are compulsive savers and the tightest people i have ever come across. The more interest rates drop the tighter they clutch their saving and the worse domestic spending gets. (a little example. My German sister in law took her 20 year old daughter to see Paris for a few days last month. I asked my niece did she get to see the Mona Lisa. No. They actually didn't go into any of the buildings. They literally saw Paris from the street and went home. Every expense spared) A recession in Germany would not be a surprise.

There must be someone out there that can see the result of tightening will be deflation and recession. last time around it was an experiment so they could be excused. This time they know better. It will destabilise countries and politically hasten the rise of both the far right and left. Instead of pumping QE cash into banks that can't lend it ( what they will do with it is take the cheap money and buy US bonds or take their highter interest rates and make a little profit) they should give it directly to governments to fund capital infrastructure programs especially green related. Everyone wins that way. Citizens will actually see the cash in action rather than hear Draghi say he put 60 billion a month into banks where it is never to be seen again.

All lower rates and more QE will do is finish off banks for good. they will have negitive NIM's in a few years. You can see the trend in BoI H119 results. Brexit is having a major drag on the bank but the ECB policy is in my view responsible for where we have been heading for the last month. If a bank cant make a margin then it just can't function so investors flee. Something needs to change

The SX7E is very close to breaking a long held level. Are there implications for the ECB if the slide continues? Will they/can they intervene seeing as a lot of the problem is down to their policy in the first place.

Unlike the last banking crisis, BoI does not need cash to survive. if it did issue a bond today I expect it would be given cash at close to zero and be over subscribed. At this time the bank is still very profitable. However the share price is a different story. Share price and surviving are completely different things.
There is nothing to say where the bottom is. It could be now but it could be €1. Investing at €3 could loose 75% of you money before Halloween.

Apart from the fact that no one would want the bank at this time it would be very difficult for a buyer to gain control. The bank does not need capital so won't be doing a rights issue for a prospective buyer to get a foothold. After the government with 14% the next biggest share holder, the Prudential group UK (also the biggest buyer just now) has just 4%. They would need to buy all the shares of the 10 biggest holders after the Gov just to get over 20% of the bank.
So it comes down to Pascal. What's the chance of him" giving away " the 14% now with a general election due? I suspect he doesn't want to be known as the biggest langer of them all.

torquay. The difference between when you arrived and left Torquay is simple, Ryanair and Easyjet happened. Times changed as they always do and always will. There's 2 photo's on the internet taken of the same busy NY street. one taken in 1900 and the other 13 years later in 1913. in the first one the street in full of horse and buggys apart from 1 single car. In the 2nd the street is full of cars but with 1 single horse and buggy. We are probable right now on the cusp of huge change. The world balance of power is changing among other things. In my view the EU was never more important or never more under threat.
I'm sure Lti won't agree but the UK has picked a really bad time to go it alone in my view. You are right that the Mr Bigs will be just fine and the little guy will suffer as always.

da. as we in Ireland know referendum have on many occasions been used to give the government of the day a good kick in the a*** and little to do with the actual in question on the paper.

Maastricht Treaty 1992 57% T O. yes 69% no 31%
Nice 2001 1st 35% T O. No 54% yes 46%. 2002 2nd 48% T O. Yes 63% No 37%.
Lisbon 2008 1st 53% T O. no 53.4% yes 46.6% . 2009 59% T O. Yes 67% No 33%
Fiscal Treaty 2012 50.5% T O. Yes 60.37% No 39.63%.

There is no doubt that Ireland is pro EU majorty State and will remain so. Attempting to make it seem anything other is wrong. As a very small economy we have no choice in a world that is now turning in on itself. Been part of a bigger block was never more in our interest.
As for putting obstacles in the way of the UK leaving. that is not true. The EU and the UK agreed on terms. The fact that the UK government then could not get the agreement through parliament is not the fault of the EU.

The biggest problem with social media and boards like this is that people generally form into groups that only reinforce their own views and opinions. There is no room to hearing the alternative point of view. Hence shock and disbelief when events happen that the consensus view in your group thought impossible eg. Trump gets elected and Brexit.
LTI may be here to make a bit of mischief but he's hardly a troll. I don't agree with his views but that's not saying he's not entitled to his point of view or even wrong. Like it or not the UK have pulled the pin from a grenade and we (Ire, Birg) were in the room at the time. Brexit has happened. The damage caused or yet to be caused is unclear but for both the UK and Ire
its considerable.
We may believe that pulling the pin was a huge mistake but there are people that have achieved exactly what they wanted.
I read an article somewhere that made sense to me anyway. A group of UK "smart people" are of the opinion that the British citizens have gone soft. Productivity is at an all time low and they are loosing the ability to actually work. The once great English industrial and manufacturing economy has died or is on it's last legs. WHY.. because of the EU of course. So we have Brexit, the harder the better and as a result Britain will be reborn to it's former glory. They are willing to accept the short term pain for the long term gain. The English war time spirit will win out in the end and a new hard working, innovative, exporting economy will emerge.
I know it's easy to pick holes in their ideals but that doesn't matter. The pin is out and the best that can be done now is limit the damage.

Gold just crossed $1500. Much safer place for your £50,000 nuri than BIRG in STG in my opinion. If you have 50k it would be a sensible hedge if you can't trade your stocks for a while. Momentum can be your friend.

No more than the supposed experts like Morgan Stanley, do the government or their very well paid experts know where a share price will be heading. Even after Ross sold we here were all talking about a 40c party. If they had sold at 26c and it did go to the 40c, as the price target of the likes of Cantor Fitz and Davy's suggested at the time, the country would have claimed we were robbed by their stupidity.
I think it's aslo true that they took stick for selling 25% AIB in 2017 https://www.siptu.ie/media/pressreleases2017/mainnews/fullstory_20431_en.html. ... and from plenty more as well.
As Bertie once said " “If hindsight was foresight.....

Maybe management will be braver with the banks cash than they are with their own. If they believed the share price is cheap as chips you would expect director buying but no sign.
In fairness to them I suppose the uncertainty coming from all over the place gets worse weekly. I have been watching the price of gold for the last few months. It has gone through $1350 with conviction for the first time in 6 years. With a trade war on going and a currency war heating up not to mention all the other problems we are in a time of serious change. I have mentioned before the cash pile Buffet has been growing. Around $120 billion now I think. All signs that for the like of us it's time to sit on our hands . I have a feeling BoI will be doing the same.

Indeed. take away from it for BJ. 1.. when canvasing talk to the people. chickens don't vote. 2... £2.5 billion of public funds may not be enough to buy a national election. 3... More hot air. Needs to get a (lot) bigger bounce.

On a serious note though. I believe this major loss will send Johnson back to the drawing board. Without a doubt he planned to storm the electorate with his bluster and promises and go for an early election. He saw the Brexit party as his main challenge but this morning he will know it's going to be the Remain Alliance. The 10% bounce in the polls was no more than his own voters floating back from Farage. If an election is called it will be 100% a second referendum and to be honest that might be a useful out for Johnson. Just go for a straight referendum and not risk topping the list of the UK's shortest serving PM's.

Well lti, we'll know in a couple of hours how likly it is for the Tories to win an election. With the boris bounce the byelection in Wales should see them at least 15 to 20% ahead of the rest of the field. Anything less would be a kick in th he teeth for Boris.

on top of all the normal headwinds the half year results were poor. mortgage lending share in Ire down from 28% to 23%???
How can that happen in a market the bank should be dominating? NIM going back ways at pace. That's a major metric and is a red flag for investors. 80mil set aside for bad loans not to mention 55 mil for further tracker problems.

I see very little reason for buying, even at these levels which is ridiculous when you consider where we have come from.
This is still a falling knife with brexit been sorted the only possible catalyst for a change in the near term.

I don't thing the unions are the issue, more political possibly. The branch network must be the subject of much discussion inside the banks upper ranks for a long time now. The bulk of the buildings are long paid for so apart for a bit of up keep and rates they don't cost much. The fact that they are all in prime parts of the town is good from an advertising and brand recognition point of view. The big debate for now is if they are to be staffed or automated. I suspect over time (an ever shorter time) as cash is no longer king they will become fully automated and then obsolete. The hole in the wall will end up like the phone boxes over the next 10 years or so.

I'm involved with a charity shop that's part of a wider circle. We added a card machine late last year and over 6 months 25% of sales are now by card. That % is growing monthly. Tilling up and handling the cash is time consuming and the charity has plans to go cash free over the short term. Eventually, like our shop, the banks will reach a tipping point and your wish will be granted Radar. A branch will cover an ever wider radius until they cannibalise themselves.

On the point of a branch making a million the question would be if the branch wasn't there how much difference would that make to head office in Cork city. I suspect that the bulk of that million would still be made.

At €4.50 the dividend yield is 3.5%. If they keep their promise to continue increasing the dividend and it hits 20c next year the yield would be 4.4%. At a time when the ECB is intent on reducing rates and printing more cash (whats the definition of stupidity and expecting a different result again!!!) that's a lot better than a turd in my books.

The bank is as safe as a house, as is the profits generated, so ignore capital appreciation for now and collect the dividend. The momentum is totally against this share today and for the last 2 years and nothing on the horizon to change that for now. Way better for your stress levels to ignore the daily price changes (drops) and be content to be paid a few euro for sitting on them.

DCB (Lasttrain) if I wanted to post in LLoyds I would. I don't appreciate you copying and pasting my posts from here over there. Do your own s***t stirring and leave me out of it.

Other posters here beware.