Member Info for johnmcclean

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/all-eyes-on-boi-after-ulster-bank-pays-15bn-dividend-36523155.html The market anticipates Bank of Ireland, now under the stewardship of new CEO Francesca McDonagh, will announce a dividend equating to about 20pc of pre-tax profits next February when it unveils its full-year results. However, Darren McKinley of Merrion Stockbrokers has assumed a more bearish view, predicting the lender will adopt a more cautious strategy and pay out close to 10pc of pre-tax profits as it hoards cash, potentially to deal with a renewed increase in its pension deficit or a possible expense overrun on technology platform. These are two areas that contributed to the bank's decision last year to delay shareholder payouts. Others in the market privately worry the bank will scrap the dividend once again this year as anxieties fester over the potential for another flare-up on the tracker debacle.

Pat I think you could throw a dart at any ISEQ or European index and have a 90% chance of hitting a winner at the minute. Hopefully when the dust settles in a couple of months BIRG will be seen as a good stock and a cut above the rest.

https://www.rte.ie/news/enviroment/2018/0122/934974-murphy-housing-loan/ Capped at a house value of �320,000 in dublin so that will rule out a lot of houses. good for apartments though. The 2 to 2.25% for life will be a huge draw and I think it will pose a major problem for banks in the future. Anyone looking for the loan mush have 2 refusal letters from banks. that won't be an issue from my experience back 30 years ago when Co Co's were doing much the same thing only with much less competitive loan rates.

Reports that the government are going to offer FTBs 25 year fixed rate loans at 2.25% on incomes less than 75000. If true that's going to shake up the banks.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ive-taken-personal-accountability-to-help-restore-trust-in-bank-of-ireland-36511684.html

its not just banks. 3 of my few holdings hit 2 year highs last week. Santa rally with a bit of euphoria creeping in to the markets.

An interview with Francesca in the Indo today. Not much meat in it really. 1 billion fund available for builders to build houses. Irish mortgage lending a main focus. New technology to drive down costs and increase opportunities. Customers to be more of a focus. No plans for branch closures but branches will be more focused on automated transactions with less staff on site. Nothing about the dividend. My take on her is, if Richie was the bad cop she's planning on being the good cop. Her aim " I want us to be the bank of Ireland"

Hr H. The house is costing �350000 so for the first 10 years there will be very limited chance of overpaying especially if I am ever to become a granddad.

Susan they have chosen a house with the intention of been there for life ( assuming no life changing events). Both are permanent teachers so have good clarity on employment and both are 26 going on 40 (annoying sensible)

Torc will be amused by all the weather related chat. i think when he said ^london cold" he was talking about illness not temperature eg "Australian flu"

My daughter and her boyfriend are about to buy a house so she ask me to scout around and see where the best mortgage for them would be. So for the last month I have had an interest in interest rates and where they might be heading. Well I think the only way is up..and up and up. From everything I have read or listened to we are (in my opinion) about to enter a time of inflation all over the world. That include Japan after 20 years of stagnation. Where inflation goes so too does interest rates. I have said for the last years that ECB rates would not budge from 0 until at least 2019. Mario said a month ago that he would not raise rates until well after QE ends in September 2018. I think H119 now looks likely despite what he said. If not the ECB will be way behind the curve on controlling the time of inflation thats coming. Good news for BIRG for sure. Higher rates and inevitably, much better return on bonds. Banks are about to see a major change in fortune over the next 2 years. The advice to my daughter was a 10 year fixed rate mortgage. As it happens the best value turns out to be BoI at 3.5% with 3% cash back.

�8.10 is actually 27c but don't think that really matters much. A close above �8 this evening would be very positive. I'm sure some of the technical guys will give you the next chart resistance but I think �10 would be the next price of interest. It must be 18 months and a bit since we have spent any time over 27c so are the charts relevant at all from here? I'm not so sure.

Bank of Ireland: Investor day scheduled for June 13th Bank of Ireland yesterday announced that it will hold an investor day in London on June 13th, which will be the first to be held by the new CEO Francesca McDonagh. Although there has been no indication yet as to what the itinerary or format of the investor day may include, the scheduling of the event in June will be keenly awaited by investors, given the recent arrival of the new CEO and speculation as to what her strategic vision for the business may involve. We would expect the main focus of the investor day to be on the continued roll-out of the transformative technology investment programme and accompanying business process overhaul, as well as how BIRG intends to position itself in the UK over the next few years given the lingering concerns over Brexit. We would also expect investors to look for further guidance as to what management's view is on dividend progression going forward as well as how the new CEO intends to position the bank within its core Irish banking and non-banking business lines.

Its not exactly clear how much they have set aside for a dividend. they did put 70mil in the pot for H1 and then an unspecified amount for Q3. Q4 we don't know. It depends on where the �200mil comes from to cover the tracker mess. Paying out a 170 mil dividend plus set aside the 200mil and then spend ?mil from profits on the tech upgrade ...that's alot of cash in one year as they aim for a CET1 of 13%. It will come down to to the priorities of the new boss. Paying any dividend at all is the important thing so I would be happy with �100 mil paid out.

encouraging end to the week. still creeping up. Don't mind Blackrock. They went over 5% on 13/12/17. under 5% on 22/12/17 and now over again. it's just clients inside their funds making adjustments.

Somethings up all of a sudden. Big buy ins, but who's selling??? Sir Anthony and friends anything left to sell.

is on our side and enough buyers to soak up any profit takers and institutional sellers. Friday closing will be interesting.

we held just above the 25c (�7.50). It might support a bit of a bounce.. maybe. �8.10 has proved impossible to break in any meaningful way for the last 18 months. The share has many of the ducks lined up need to push on this time. Momentum is on its side and the carrot of the dividend return in just a few weeks has to mean something. We obviously never learn here so we continue to live in hope.

I think its obvious what has happened here and its not for the first time either. After a month long run which added almost a billion to the banks market CAP the same thing has cursed us yet again and for the umpteen time. It's the fault of this forum here actually. Anytime this share price gains a few % someone mentions the "M" word we go into reverse. Can I suggest that the 50c do is moved to a new venue or is not mentioned for a long time again. To be honest, by the time we get to 50c (�15) none of us are going to be able to remember what the hell we are doing there anyway.

I hope BIRG breaks through 8.10 (27c) with the same ease as it broke 7.50 (25c). both have proved stubborn in the past but 8.10 particularity so. Obviously someone has taken a big interest in BOI but if its a new shareholder we should see a 3% RNS. . I would be surprised (pleasantly so) if a new major shareholder appears to want a big chunk of BoI. like it or not the bank has still 40% interest in the Uk. Brexit looks like its heading down softer path but unless this suitor has a lot more political insights that everyone else the risk still remains. To be honest I really dont care as long as the present trend continues until march. It might just be a happy new year for us all.