Member Info for johnmcclean

Broker my ass.. No offence paddy but Davy's and Cantor had a 43c (€13) price target on BoI 3 years ago. Now they are making millions, way less distressed loans, less competition , paying a dividend, fully capitalize, ect ect and the price target is €9 while the price is €7.

Seeing as no one will remember or even care I'll put a number on it now. There will be either 2 or possibly 3 rises in 2019 with the ECB base rate at or close to 2% before the end of 2020.

Cred2. Tech is one of the greatest threats to incumbent banks. This money should have been spent years ago but in smaller amounts over a longer time frame. The bank just didn't have the spare cash of the foresight to do it. Lets just hope they spent the 1.2billion wisely. These are fast moving times for technology.

Susan, Just have a look at what's going on around you. Apart from food, which is remaining cheap because of a supermarket war and to be honest thats not exactly true either. Almost every product these days is a smaller volume or weight for the same price. You'll soon be paying €1.20 for just the mars bar wrapper with a smell of chocolate in it. In so many areas life is getting more expensive to live. Employment is growing and will continue to do so. Not just because of extra real jobs but because we are entering a time of mass retirements as the baby boomers come of age. Behind the scenes there is plenty of pent up inflation pressures. The fuel cost increases alone are going to trickle into everyday extra costs. On the way down fuel prices dropped inflation dramatically. It's only a matter of time now that the opposite happens. Inevitably the ECB will be late responding but they will in the end. Inflation is one argument of higher rates an oter could be a trade war or what about fear. If the world economey was to hid another serious down turn what weapon have the ecb to fight it if retes are already zero. QE went straight to the bottom line of the rich and the banks. Only lower interest repayments benefited the masses ( a little anyway). The CB will have to move rates up now so they can cut them again in the future. They needs bullets in the gun. That's why i think the way I do an act accordingly. Could be totally wrong of course but time will tell.

Just have to get used to it hotdog. The bank is in an investment phase and by the sound of it will be for the next 3 years. As the cash is invested cost savings will grow. Really all that will happen inside birg for the next 3 years is costs savings paying a % of investment. A zero game. Much like any extra profits shoreing up CET1 for the last year's. Must of the extra lending has been cancelled out by loan repayments and until meaning full houses are built that's likely to continue. Again that takes us 2 or 3 years down the road. Internally we will struggle to cross a billion profit until 2021 and there for that 50% dividend is unlikely until 2021 as well. External factors could play a part but it's impossible to say if it will be for the better or worse. So many negatives and only 1 real positive. Stating tomorrow I think we are at the summit of QE and are about to start the downhill leg to normalisation. All through history CB's have been behind the inflation curve, both up and down. I believe there will be a much faster run up to 2% ecb rates than expected. Inflation is supposed to be around 1.5% and sluggish in Europe at the minute. This time next year it could be 3%. Predictions of a first rate rise in H2 2019 will be wrong. I can see March or April next year been D day. When the Germans get control of the ECB in late 2019 they will send rates off like a rocket. Watch out borrowers.

Hotdog is right. There's nothing to be said on BIRG for now. We are stuck in a valuation band and just can't escape. However the mood music is starting to change at last so hopefully we can make a bit of ground from mid year on. Sticking on BIRG might still be a reasonable bet, despite past performance. That's mainly because stocks in general are crossing into the wrong side of the risk return divide.. Today US 10 year bond yields crossed 3%. That 3% puts bonds right back into the mix as a worth while investment. US interest rates are well in there as well and only going one way this year. Bad news for equities. Who will risk buying expensive and risky stocks when a sure and risk free alternative is readily available. The right EU financial stocks should be the big winners from this turn around though. There may be a little wait for the ECB to play catch up but its inevitable we are on the same path as the US, only a few steps behind. We are still waiting for EU inflation to kick off. It beats me to figure out how we don't have inflation figures that show a rise long ago. The only explanation is the the figure take a long time to compile and are historic to a degree. Anyone living here are sure to see the spike in living costs over the last 6 months. Just looking at your petrol pump as you fill is one example. The trickle down effect will be well visible before 2018 comes to a close. I would be very afraid of investing in China. Feeding their national debt is about to get very expensive and at the same time they continue to print to hold growth at high levels. As they continue to move from low cost manufacturing, to a middle class consumer economy there will be growing pains. Picking the winners from that will be difficult. That's even made worse by trying to figure out what deal the US has done with China to cause such a turn around in North Korea. Whatever China has promised Kim Jong-un it has cost the US double. Lets see if Trump enforces the much talked about tariffs. Personally, I stopped directly buying shares a while ago. I even sold a few. The rest I'll hold for the long term.

the possibility of a takeover has been hanging over SKG for a few years so not a bit surprised to hear IP have made an offer. No real knowing what happens next. Now that IP have shown their hand there may be other interested companies throwing their eye on SKG. With the +20% lift in share price is this a sell the news moment or a hang on and see where it goes opportunity?

Prior to this offer, Smurfit had a market cap of �6.5bn. IP�s market cap is approx. �24.3bn. Its current net debt/EBITDA is 3.49x, which suggests some there is not much headroom for an improved offer. Its FCF was reduced dramatically in 2017 from $1.1bn to $366m. This figure was $1.7bn. Cash from operations has also been declining from �3.07bn in 2014 to �1.757bn in 2017. However the majority of this was driven by the $2.2bn acquisition of Weyhauser Pulp Mills. When you take a look at estimated 2018 numbers, there may be some room for IP to come back with an improved offer. Net debt/EBITDA is expected to drop to 2.13x with EBITDA moving from $2.673bn to $4.232bn. Net debt is also expected to decline from $10.14bn to $9.02bn. Without any firm details on the initial proposal it is difficult to gauge whether or not IP will come back with an improved offer. It should also be noted that IP itself has been the subject of takeover speculation, most notably in 2017 with rumours of a bid by the Koch brothers. Smurfit Kappa is likely to trade above 2018 price targets on the back of this news in the short term. We maintain our Outperform.

The important thing for 2017 was the reinstatement of the dividend. If it wasn't for the mess with the trackers it would have been a bit higher so 11.5c is acceptable based on the numbers for 2017 and the fact that interest rates are so low and unlikly to change in 2018. The amount of capital set side is reassuring and while some may say excessive its wise to have a substantial buffer build up now before upping any dividend. There is no knowing what regulators will demand as capital reserves in the future. There is also the fact that for 2018 the bank may not grow. Despite the growth in loans, repayments are canceling out any net gain so as NIM falls as predicted so will profits. If the bank had started to invest in Technology a couple of years earlier cost savings might now be further on and available to boost the bottom line. The bank does have one viable option. Buy preforming loan books. They have the cash to do that and money is still cheap. For Francesca that should be a priority in 2018. The bank needs to grow and not stagnate depending on cost savings only. Sorry this post is a bit choppy but time is against me.

The dividend should produce a steady stream of buying up until the end of April. The stated bank policy is to increase the payment up to 50% of sustainable earnings over the next few years. That would mean a dividend around 3x what they announced to day if earnings don't move (which they will).

Quick look so far. NIM no progress really so could be better. CET1 13.8% very good. Market share up. 11.5c dividend (124million) as we predicted. NPL doing nicely.

Quick update on my daughter's efforts to buy a house. Contracts were signed this week. BOI CAME GOOD at 10 year fixed 3.5%. Visited the show house last weekend. It's a big estate with goiod quality houses. Phase 2 of 3. I did notice that there was no big rush of viewers and this was only the 2nd open weekend of this year. It's possible that.€300,000 is at the top of the range for many and that buyers are been pushed further out from Dublin. OR as I am hearing quite often, buyers are waiting to see if the new Government loan scheme will cone to anything. 30 years fixed at 2% is very attractive.

Interesting watching the results from some of the ISEQ top companies. kingspan, Glanbia, Kerry ect. All on forecast or beat forecast but took a hit of 3 to 5 % based on cloudy outlooks for 2018. With BOI next week the same may happen unless there is something exceptional in there. NIM, CET1, new leanding are all going to be reasonable predictable. A dividend pot of €120mil to €140mil is expected so maybe something above that would help . It might have to be forward guidance. Something more than the normal fluffy stuff from the boss. She has a big markets day in July. Hopefully she won't be keeping all her.power dry for that.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boi-chairman-kane-to-go-as-bank-readies-key-dividend-36613083.html

Chris there are down sides to the QE of the past few years but in general it has done what it set out to do. I think we forget where the world economy was when QE started. Without it there is no doubt all of us were in for a depression rather than a recession at that time. For us in Europe the cheap money has allowed countries like ireland refinance huge expensive debt at way lower rates that ultimately save tax payers a lot of cash over the coming years. The same goes for business. Banks just like Ireland have had the opportunity to shore up reserves and stabilise their balance sheet with the cheap money. Qe weakened the Euro long enough to put a floor under the economy and leave Europe and Ireland a hell of a lot better off than looked possible 10 years ago. Where we go from here is the question. how will the choreographed ending of QE all over the developed world play out. So far so good but as the process of deleveraging play out. Central banks like Japan have 90% of the countries GDP on their books. No easy job selling that down without causing ripples.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boi-sets-christmas-digital-record-with-1m-logins-in-a-day-36484750.html

1/1/18 open � 7.20 5/1/18..close..�7.74 8/1/18 open �7.74 12/1/18..close �7.95 15/1/18 open �7.95 19/1/18..close �8.05 22/1/18 open �8.05 26/1/18..close �8.15??? regardless of friday evenings the trend is your friend. The line is never straight.

Bank of Ireland plans to put its subsidiary New Ireland�s central Dublin headquarters up for sale in coming weeks with a price tag thought to be in the region of �30 million. The bank has been weighing a sale of New Ireland�s building, just metres away from Stephen�s Green, on Dawson Street in Dublin 2, for some time. It is understood that the lender decided this week to offer the building for sale on the open market, possibly some time next month.

2017 proved a year of contrasting share price performance within the Irish banking sector. We expect the early year recovery at BOI, our top pick for 2018, to continue. The outline of the new CEO�s vision at a Capital Markets Day in Q2 will strengthen the investment case. Mortgage market competition, non-performing loans (NPLs) and prospects for loan book growth remain the key themes for 2018, particularly as tracker examination fears recede. We also raise our price targets on BOI to 890c (+3.5%) and PTSB to 240c (+15%) to incorporate supportive management commentary from our recent North America conference.

The article below is a bit like an Irish weather forcast.... snow showers, sunny spells with rain but dry in places. Depending on who you ask the answer is Yes...Maybe...No My best guess for what its worth is a dividend fund of between �100 mil and �120 mil. If my quick maths is right thats about 10c a share.