Member Info for johnmcclean

How many times have I heard people say..." If Michael was running the country things would be..." He's had a charmed life up until now and I'm sure he'll get over this. Still the gloss has definitely worn off him at this stage. His buy back is only a smart move if the share price does recover. Merrion have a 6 month price target of �15.50 on them today. If he had spent that cash on staffing a few months ago his share holders might have been better off today. From now on there will always be a question mark over his judgment as opposed to a premium.

While China does issue government bonds they didn't borrow most of the cash. To start with they printed it (QE). They still are but to a lesser extent for fear of hyper inflation . They had to slow printing because they were growing the supply of cash faster than GDP. Of course the new cash left China and headed West into safer markets than the home market. The government had no choice but to plug the hole the escaping cash left by selling its $ foreign reserves to convert them back into real Yuan. When things were good in China they accumulated $4 trillion of reserves. $1 trillion of that was gone by March 17 and at a burn rate of $100 billion a month (possibly more is suspected) since then. Hence the need for capital controls. Chinese bank debt is around 300% of its GDP. The government are caught in a vicious circle of lending to stabilise growth (they gave up trying to grow it) and GDP at one end and building an ever bigger pyramid of debt at the other. Their other choice is to spark the mother of all currency and trade wars by devaluing the Yuan. That's the reason why the Chinese investors are taking their Yuan to safe haven off shore assets. Back to Bank of Ireland. While Ireland is bound to be affected by any bust in China BIRG will continue to pay the dividend. The share price may (will) get hit but we now have a very good business. So if you have to settle on the dividend as your only win i think the others will come with (more..) time. I'd just be keeping clear of any risky bets for a while.

The bad news radar is that you are not going to be impressed. you cant be. some of what you want contradicts others. The bank has clear profits of around 800 million euro per year. your point 2. would cost 1 billion. Your point 4. would cost 1.2 billion. Point 5 would cost �� � depending on the number of shares. So with any of these points you can't have point 1. And if the bank doesn't deliver point 1.. then there is zero chance of 6. So If you would be impressed by just a sustained dividend you may just be lucky enough to get rich some day. The reason I say that is because a boring dividend paying stock might be worth owning over the next while. Things are going to get a bit hairy. When China has its day of reckoning, maybe not for a little while yet, but not that far away either, its going to reset markets all over the place. China's finances are the equivalent of a giant ponzi scheme. Their banks are having to lend ever increasing amounts to keep the house of cards from collapsing . Last year banks lent almost $2 trillion. Thats about the same size as the whole Italian economy. To protect the banks they are printing cash fast and because of that and to protect the currency they are selling foreign exchange reserves at an alarming rate, $100billion a month, maybe more. To stem the flow of money fleeing the country they have now introduced capital controls, not just on citizens but on foreign companies wishing to repatriate their cash. To make things worse, a huge amount of the lending and printing they are doing to support the economy is for projects that are worthless. Miles of unused highways, empty factories and houses ect. One figure bandied about it for $40 trillion of loans there is $2 trillion of salable assets. That's a big bubble when it bursts. And because the world is full of cash stuck in the riskiest of over valued asserts there will be consequences. A boring dividend paying bank, even with an undervalued share price might not be such a bad place to be.

Just in case anyone thinks I am ignoring Brexit Have a read of this report in your spare time. Start at page 12 for the really shocking stuff. In table 1 most of my own exposure is in the 29% on the first line. https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2017/09/170913-uk-eu-exit-trade-exposures-of-sectors-of-the-irish-economy-in-a-european.pdf

The last time I looked this was a BANK OF IRELAND forum not a brexit forum. I and I assume others are here to discuss Birg. Brexit is a legitimate topic for sure but its not the only one. In the last 30 days dcb you have posted 160 times. How many times have you mentioned BIRG or referenced its share price? On this form when was the last time you mentioned BIRG? When did you join in any discussion here not about Brexit? I know plenty about politics and about Brexit and am personally involved in both. I just choose not to discuss it with a one trick pony like yourself.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/07/government-should-cut-bank-of-ireland-out-of-post-office-bank-says-report Good? Bad? Can they? Will they?

Nothing wrong with discussing Brexit on this forum. It's of major importance to this share. But is this the place for dcb to organise his green thumb friends? This forum is poor enough without that. If he is been filtered over there they have every right to. He is trolling by his own admission. I always read your posts Torquay and I probably know more about you and your life than anyone else on this board. The last thing I want is to have you set your key board down at night and have to watch Newsnight instead. I appreciate your opinions on brexit but as someone who has many friends who will be directly hit hard by it, I get it hard to see it as a bit of fun. Just watching a big boo boo on Sky news. The place is really falling apart over there. One bit of good news you might appreciate. My brother just managed to get a flight out of Florida. He says its a bit like scenes from a disaster move over there as everyone clamors to get out of the way of Irma. Thats all I have to say. Work at at 5.30am (at something that is already badly affected by brexit)

And here's me thinking a green thumb had to be earned and not asked for. have one on me too dcb.

Interesting observation Radar because the Trump effect is very relevant. Berkshire is a corporate structure and would be a huge winner of a 15% rate as would so many other big profitable businesses. Thing is, its not at all a given that there will ever be such a rate. Markets priced it in last February so if it does't happen it could easily be the the straw that breaks the markets. How the US, in debt up to its ears, in need of a trillion for infrastructure and with a fortune to be spent on a war machine (the white house is full of Ex generals) can afford such a tax rate is a major doubt. Interestingly, Ireland and with a bit of luck BKIR will be a winner from no change to the rate.

Why are you guys posting on this forum about what you are posting on another forum??? Stir it up over there all you want but leave BIRG out of it.

Shares in general have started to flat line. If you were to stand back and look at the risk.. reward of owning a share the weight has to be on the down side. possibly by 80-20. QE and lack of yield in any other investment seems to be the only positive. The negative list is long though. I even see gold, that has been very quiet for a long time is starting to edge higher. The ISEQ has only moved up 50 points in the last 2 years despite a booming economy. It would not take much to tip the market in general into retreat. I haven't sold a share in the last 5 years but I haven't bought one in a long time either. I know the ones I want (not any more BIRG) but nerves for the future are getting the better of me. Instead, my finger is hovering over the sell button a lot of the time (not over BIRG though). One last point. Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile is now touching $100 billion at almost zero yeild. The most they have ever sat on. WHY?? They have actually more in cash than invested in shares at the moment. Buffet has also said the only reason they haven't liquidated more of their holdings is because of the huge tax bill they would face in doing so. Not saying Buffet is always right but you don't get to be one of the richest people in the world by been wrong that often either.

I wouldn't put much on CGT changes. Maybe a bit of tinkering for some cases. I'd say 50/50 on help for the landlords but on Tax bands there is a good chance of positive changes. If Leo is going to do more than talk the talk then when he was on the sidelines that's the very least I would expect. I think they have promised to continue USC changes already. Hard working people should be aloud a decent lifestyle for their effort so well see if the crushed middle will benefit.

Just to be clear I am neutral on Leo for now. He will really only start working at the and of this month. However be sure of one thing. He is as far right in his views as we have in this country at the minute. Count him as your best friend because other than him and and a few in his government the scales if now firmly tilted to the left. FF have over the last year or two consciously moved off the center and set up camp as a soft left party. That is actually where their root was but for along time they shifted from that base. In doing so SF ate their dinner just as the far left is eating SF's. What this means is, as investors, no one is going to stand up for you. It would not surprise me if 33% is as good as it gets and very likely the only way is up. I think Leo's inclination is to reward risk takers and stick up for the middle class. It's an inclination that will be a hard sell. I also believe there is a move in Europe to grow a more equal society. If you want to know what than actually means, well it's distribution of wealth. It's not going to be the Robin Hood method but a softer version of that. Reward work with a good wage but less tax breaks and higher taxes on income from other sources eg. capitol gains. If you have time have a read of the article below and it will give you an idea of what way the thinking is going. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/27/should-the-rich-be-taxed-more-a-new-paper-shows-unequivocally-yes As the authors note, since 1980, economic policy making has been dominated by the idea that deregulation, less generous welfare and tax cuts will stimulate higher investment, higher productivity, higher growth and higher living standards for all. None of this has occurred and, what’s more, the social mobility in the decades after the second world war has been thrown into reverse. The great American dream – the notion that anybody can strike it rich – is dead.

Its not just the £ its also $. The € has been gaining in strength against both at a steady rate. Alot of companies would have hedged both and especially against £. However its unlikly that they would hedge 100% and for any longer than 6 months. If we are still in the mid 90's v £ in January that's when things will get serious. When you add in cross border shopping and shopping on line from the UK it all adds up to serious risk. The ECB may decide to act to weaken the € but that will not be easy. The weakness in the UK is 90% home grown and unless Trump can keep a promise or 2 before he gets kicked its hard to see a reversal there either no matter what Draghi does. As for BIRG it's going to take another big hit to the balance sheet in H217. A certain amount has been priced in to the share price but even though a decline in stg was expected the sudden deterioration in the last few weeks is bound to affect the share price negatively. I'm a bit surprised we have held so close to €7 as it is.

100 years ago Ireland would have ranked as one of the poorest for its people in the world. 70 years ago it wasn't much better. However we have dragged ourselves to now been one of the richest. By GDP we are 7th. By kids education 7th. By life for kids 12th. For growing old 15th. For HEALTH 19th. For over all best to live in 21st. To do business in 4th. Safest to live in 12th. It's not a perfect country and some of our politicians are poor to say the least but overall we do well with what we have. Business people have plenty of opportunity to influence policy. That's actually where the IFSC came from. So while new blood and new opinion is always fantastic we do ok.

Well radar if were discussing this a few years ago Sean Quinn might well have been high on that list. He turned out not to be as smart as we all thought. I get a reminder of that every time I renew my car insurance. You could add Sir Anthony O'Reilly to the list as well and he actually was interested in politics. He even considered running once upon a time. How about Denis O'Brien? Would we trust him to run the country???. Maybe Larry Goodman. He's a rich business man but we might not want to look back at his roots. Ivan Yates was once a business man and a politician to boot . Ouch. Michael is No. 15 on the 2016 rich list. The top 3, including John Grayken head of Loan Star vulture fund are only Irish by passport. His mate Ellis Short is 14 on the list. Actually most of the richest Irish people don't even live here which says a lot about their commitment. We are actually down to the genuinely smart gamblers of Magnier, McManus and Desmond. I think you would have to go along way down the list to even find a taker. Bono might be the best bet to grab the chance. No matter which side of the center you fall on we are stuck with what we have and to be honest we might count ourselves lucky that anyone would want to be a politician at all in this day an age.

Before anyone proposes Mick O' to run this country and "Make Ireland Great Again" this is a true story. Last year my brother in law applied for a job as Micks driver. He was interviewed by him on a sunday morning at the kitchen table in Gigginstown. The deal was ... drive every second week (Mick said it was a boring job so he had two drivers). Pay was minimum wage and you signed on the week you were off. As my brother in law left the mansion and drove by the stables with horses worth millions he not surprisingly decided to pass on the "job". He's an exceptional business man but if Mick was boss of Ireland the rich would get richer and the poor poorer.

Great to see sensible discussion for a couple of days in a row again. I'll avoid the political chat except for one comment. At this minute there is big demand for affordable single person accommodation. I know more than one landlord that is converting un-rentable small shops into flats. Where we are at the moment size is not the big issue. Its availability and affordability. The repossessions debate is an interesting one. Because of our past history the word Eviction is emotive in Ireland. There are differences though between then and now. The repossession of a house where a mortgage is not been paid, for what ever reason, is a perfectly normal and 100% legal process. Anyone who buys a banks stock and has an issue with that might be in the wrong investment. Thankfully, there are several legal steps to protect borrowers these days and agencies to help during and after evictions. However the fact is, if you cant (or won't) repay the money you borrowed then you will loose your house. If that house is your family home then its an incredibly harrowing situation. The vast majority of people do not set out to default and in most cases the bank will try to reach an agreement. I would hope that Bank of Ireland, (as a long time part of this countries communitys) would act with sensitivity. If the repossession is of a second home bought as an investment property then there should be no issue. If you don't or can't pay there should be less emotion. As an investment the risk is obvious from the start. It is no different to a stock you own crashing. If they don't know the line that says " investments can go down as well as up" well... It can be ruinous but risk taking often is. Ask the thousands of small businesses that have gone to the wall over the last 10 years. They don't get near the sympathy because the eviction word is not used. They just say "well that's business". I hate to hear of anyone loosing a home or a house but I don't hold BoI responsible. It is inevitable that over the next two years there will be many more repossessions by this bank. They even have a duty, both to their business and to their shareholders to recoup as much of the cash they loaned out as possible. There are many legacy cases pending this minute in courts all over the country with hard times on the way for many unfortunately.

m.independent.ie/business/irish/boi-warns-rate-cap-on-mortages-could-hit-profits-3604872

" I still believe BOI and I hate them as a bank" Can I just take this bit of your post Hotdog because its important. Is the first half and the second half of the comment contradictory. I actually agree with you. As a life long customer of the bank I always found it a friendly and pleasant place to do business. My local bank had six or seven staff and I knew them all by name and felt comfortable doing business with them even though better value might have been available else where. There was a loyalty to the familiarity. That day is long gone. It's a long time since I spoke to a staff member in my branch. Day to day Banking is 100% machine and online. Anything extra is done through call centers or centralized. I give my kids the odd bit of financial advice and check out products for them. It's amazing how noncompetitive BoI is for ANY product, loans or savings. While hate may be a bit strong, even been agnostic on the bank has to be bad for business. The question is can the cost savings on staff and the rise of the machine make up for loyalty when it come to growing the business and hence driving the share price. The dismal market share of Irish mortgage lending the bank has suggests not.