Member Info for johnmcclean

Not a big surprise he won but by such a margin really is a statement. The result leaves May in an even more isolated position in Europe. I expect that to continue with Merkel winning in Germany later in the year. So between brexit talks, elections, ECB signaling a policy shift, Trumps stimulus and the long awaited AIB share sale I think there might be enough to keep traders interested for a while yet. I we should seriously challenge 27c soon enough.

I keep an eye on BOOM here for the RNS's and how they might affect my investment. To my mind this one today is the one that gives me hope that the fortunes on shareholders in boom are very close to changing for the better. For the last couple of years the problem has been cash burn and a very unclear picture of when there would be cash raised or even if they could raise the cash at all. That headwind is no more. If annual costs for '17..'18 run at 9.2million, then between the 4.5million raised already, the 0.7m on hand and allowing minimum booked revenue of 3m this year and next then there should be no doubt that BOOM if fully capitalized into the future. There should even be enough cash available from income to push growth harder over the next couple of years. Even if the share price today does'n show it the future is bright from what I can see.

Totally agree with everything you say observe. 12% is a huge amount of a reserve for any bank to have to keep and a big part of the reason the ECB QE has taken so long to have an impact on the real economy. It's also a reason why Paddy Cosgrove is considering bringing a huge Fintec conference to Dublin. 6 or 8 years of almost no bank lending as reserves were built up from 5 to 8% has opened the door to serious banking competition. Unfortunately whether we like it or not that 12% has become very important (as an excuse if nothing else) to market makers looking at Irish banking. It's partly the fault of the banks because they still carry a high % of long term non performing loans. The nettle of repossession has never been grasped. The proposed deal between AIB and David Halls organisation may be a game changer in that area soon. If the NPL % was less than 4% bkir would be (or should be) one of Europe's most desirable banks. On the UK business. For some reason the business over there has suddenly become a stick to beat BKIR with which makes no sense. Currency changes aside it's a no brainer. A nation wide, almost zero cost gateway into a market 10 times the Irish market. In a short time it's added 40% of the banks business. Every pound borrowed or deposited is a gain regardless of brexit or exchange rates. In theory it should see the banks valuation eventually exceed pre crash highes . Finally Richie. He did a huge job for the bank but for the last year and maybe more he has led the bank to a stand still. A serious lack of ambition at home especially has seen us not capitalise on practically no competition in the market . Why is bank of ireland, with the dominant position and foot print it has in this country only lending 25% of new mortgage borrowing? That number bugs me a lot more than 12% CET1.

Unfortunately this is an extremely important metric for banks and especially BKIR. Some annalists were hoping for a 12.6% result today so at 12% it was well below expectation. My fear this morning and judging by the 5% drop today, maybe also a few others is the dividend. At a CET1 of 12% or below it will be touch and go if we get one next march. On the positive side I think this may be a blip due to front loading (deposit maybe) on the new tec set up. With steady capital generation and changing bond yields due to ECB policy changes this should see us closer to 13% by year end. I thing there may be bargain hunters taking a look at 23c next tuesday.

Bit of a let down there. Investment in the new tec is been financed from cash flow so its a drain on reserves. Hopefully NIM going in the right direction and will help cancel some of the negative reaction there is going to be from a miss on the CET1

July most likely.

Bank of Ireland Margin and new lending are key areas of focus in Q1 interim management statement Apr 25 2017, 08:52 IST/BST | Diarmaid Sheridan | Morning briefing | 1 page(s) | Read Important Disclosures With external factors likely to have a significantly lower impact on Bank of Ireland (BOI) during Q1, we expect the focus to be on key operating metrics — notably net interest margin (NIM) and new lending activity. The pricing environment is potentially supportive to the upside of our 2017 NIM forecast, while increased activity levels evident in early 2017 underscore our new lending forecast (up 9% in 2017). Elsewhere, we expect a modest increase in the fully-loaded CET 1 capital and do not anticipate a material update on the IT investment programme.

His election campaign manager needs to get his act together. Celebrations in posh symbolic restaurants in public view is not the way to beat LePen. He has the ball at his feet in front of an open goal with just 2 weeks to go. There is no excuse to f**k up now. Over 50% of yesterdays voters are up for grabs so prescription is everything.

coming up on friday morning. Steady as she goes I assume.

by a full 2% for now but that may change as the bigger cities votes come in. Even so he is by miles the favorite to be the next French President. I believe Trump was a major moment for LePen. Not in the positive way she expected. Instead, normal centrist people were horrified to see what a wild cat far right president can do to a modern country. Years of progress on so many issues halted or reversed. Throw in the fact that if the French see the British go one way they see the opposite road as the right one. Of course there are risks for the next 2 weeks. The very people LePen hates the most are sure to try and help her win by instilling as much fear in the French voters as possible. They see her as an ally in driving as big a wedge as possible between Europeans and the vast majority of normal Muslims. Hate thy neighbor, fear them, isolate them and then create a them and us society across much of the world. Hopefully the security forces are fit to keep everyone safe but France ( or even Europe) has the potential to be a dangerous place until the election is over. But put that to one side for that for now, all of a sudden some things are sure to change and to the Good for Bkir in so many ways. (A)... The ECB policy is sure to strike out on a new path now. (B)...Tonight ( even though May already knew it already) the UK finds itself in a very isolated position on the edge of a continent it potentially has to by pass for trade. That's not going to be let happen but that's what some want the UK to do. (C)...Expect the AIB share sale to begin asap and get that donkey off our backs. By morning a weight will have lifted off Europe.

Monday will be interesting as well depending on what happens in France. My money is still on Macron.

Can't be far off breaking for 27c. Stg at 83.5 with 80 on the cards. Even if that turns out to be short lived the potential to hedge will make a huge difference to H1 results.

the talk now on NI is that The UK don't want a second Stormont election yet. I don't think any one does. Foster is afraid SF could do even better and SF are afraid they could not repeat what for them was a perfect election. The UK government will extend the time for talks and see if an agreement can be reached. They only want direct rule back as a last resort.

Its a surprise but it makes perfect sense for May and it seem to be totally her own decision. Absolutely none of her own party saw it coming. If Boris and a few of his likes survive the election I think he is toast anyway in a new government. Look at if from her point of view. Labor has a leader that is practically unelectable as PM. Even if he runs a campaign on a anti brexit play May will still destroy him. Its more likely the LibDems will be huge winners but from such a low base they wont have a much impact on the big picture. So May come back with loads of new party allies diluting the hardliner influence and giving her free reign to actually negotiate and give a few concessions to Europe without constantly been overruled and snipped at from within her ranks. Not to mention the potential of a clean run of votes through a Parliament she ownes Thats why STG gained so much today. May is a now seen as a brexiteer but as a strong moderate rather than a hardliner. Best part is she will not have to go back to the voters for 5 years. If she had to go back just as the deal was done and try and sell a less than hardline stance she would be in trouble. Now she will have time let a new deal with concessions bed in and hopefully achieve better results for the UK before an election. One other plus for her. The Tories will fight this election as the Brexit party and thus eat Ukips lunch. They are in a bit of disarray as it is so there is a good chance they are in for a tough election( ..aahh) . I know some might see this as a 2nd referendium but its not. That buttom has been pushed so 100% Brexit is happening. This is about the deal.. HARD or not so hard. From Mays position there isn't a whole lot of down site but plenty of potential up side. It may turn out to be a master stroke from her and to be honest I have a bit more respect for her political awareness than I did have. PS. Not sure where this leaves NI. It certainly seem to be low on May's priority list. Could there be a General election and a new power sharing election on the same day? Is that even possible? From a SF point of view that would suit grand rather than direct run. Not sure the Uk want to go back there either but Unionists might prefer that option

I did mean to add the Share consolidation but with all the positives I forgot it in the end. It is very important. By the simple fact that there is less of something it becomes more valuable and way less volatile. It should dry up a lot of the day traders shares available making a buyer work a bit harder and less likely to sell again. At the same time a billion shares (even if Michael is sitting on 14% of them) leaves enough room for liquidity in the shares and a steady trading market. On the 28.5c. 27c has proved a wall both up and down. Break that and we could get a nice run.

To my mind BKIR is building up a serious tail wind. There are so many positives that at some stage they are going to over whelm the biggest fly in the ointment, brexit. It has the potential to be seriously damaging to a lot of small Irish businesses. BoI has a lot of loans in the SME sector but you would have to assume they are keeping a very close eye on how their accounts will fair. I do know that SME's with UK exposure are putting plans in place to deal with Brexit. The one big danger they can't cover for is the Cliff Edge scenario. Reverting to WTO rules in two years time would be the real disaster. On that there is whispers that the WTO might be open to a special deal between the UK and the EU. Something like a 10 year period where both would be give time to draw up a new deal and avoid the Cliff Edge in 2 years, which is seen by all (except the UK) as an impossible time frame. Leaving Brexit aside BKIR is about to enter a new era. To start with, a new boss to drive the future as opposed to Richie who did a great job saving the bank and steadying it . A dividend penciled in for next year that will open the share to plenty of funds and investors only allowed (or want) to invest in dividend paying assets. The way over due upgrade to the IT infrastructure to allow for new technologies and cost savings. The Irish economy is in a major growth phase. Employment is growing. Demand is growing. House prices are heading for the ridiculous again and a big driver of bank profits, house building, is taking off. More loans at good margins will drive the NIM as tracker rates are diluted. The increasing house prices are reducing negative equity properties at a steady pace. We are heading for a 20% from peak HPI that should produce write backs at some stage. Then we have the ECB. A change in direction there is sure for 2018. The potential from that will be the biggest positive of all for banking. The SVR may not increase for a while yet (possibly 2019) but bond prices and intra bank rates will turn positive. BoI now fund over 90% of loans with savings. When rates rise it will be a further boost to NIM. The hole in the pension will fill boosting reserves, bad loans will fall and NIM will rise. All in all you would have to be very bullish on BoI shares.

And maybe the big boys are winning http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/state-may-take-lower-price-to-get-top-investors-to-buy-into-aib-35591080.html

With almost 1300 posts on BKIR you need to clear with your posts aclaw, less knowledgeable people looking in here for a bit of info might be misled by what you are saying on 2 counts at least. 1. you are putting way too much faith in the AIB valuation. They are gearing up for a sale so brokers, the bank and the government are naturally talking up their asset. There isn't a hope in hell that BKIR will jump 80 or 100% after the AIB sale. 2.. State clearly where you see the information that the government is up for buying 10% more BKIR shares. I have no information that will happen. In fact it would be a crazy idea considering stated government policy. Are you sure you are not looking at resolution 5 and reading between the lines rather than actually reading the lines?

". the govt owns 14%.. but with this talk of buying 10% by the govt.. they would own 24%... some large. fund may be trying to unload and may have made a deal to unload this 10%.. at a mkt value no higher than 5% price.. so the 7.05€ is probably low.. i would imagine news of a dividend at this meeting also.." ???????? What? Its not April 1st today so you'll have to explain this please.

As far as I know if you have any shares left that can't make 1 new share that amount of old shares are sold for you and the money returned to your broker.