Member Info for johnmcclean

Yes P and it's obvious when that difference occurred. Bkir has out preformed the index over the last month as sterling has moved less against bkir. Brexit is seen as having a much bigger effect on Ireland and bkir as it will have on the UK and it's banks.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/D6EDXoDw/ Blame it on brexit.

Equitrder, I did a bit of research on your behalf on charting the relationship between bkir and the £/€. I'm not sure if the link here will work but I can direct you if not. Bear in mind a currency and a share operate differently so you will not get the two lines to sit on top of each other. It's the trend you are looking at to find the relationship. If the link works you can see that the bkir sudden jump to 23c last week over ran the pound movement but that that has now corrected again. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/D6EDXoDw/

http://www.independent.ie/business/ecb-says-proposed-law-giving-the-central-bank-power-to-cap-mortgage-prices-will-discourage-competition-in-irish-market-35227181.html

Italian man maybe? Mario gave no hint this morning of a change of ecb qe policy citing bank profitability as one of 3 reasons he remains worried about a weak euro economy. Markets were hoping he might have said a little about tapering. So despite the fact that his policy is one of the causes of weak bank profitability it looks like on it goes until at least mid next year. Listening to Richie yesterday you would get the idea he does not think these abnormally low rates will not last much longer. He was adamant BoI customers would be very wise to fix rates now and made no apology for the banks stance on rates. He believes fixed rates will protect borrowers and the bank into the future. BoI have a 30% market share of new mortgages for the year to date,

Sorry PGee. I don't see it the way you do. Why would someone undermine their own profit if they bought loads cheap early on. Why not do like Ross and sell at 35c. They'd have a lot more than 250mil. If they really wanted another 14% of the bank and had the cash to do it then they could easily have bought a bucket load at 16c a couple of months ago knowing that Noonan would never sell at that price. I don't think my argument that this is just standard market fluctuation is going to convince you so we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Either way we both want the same thing and i agree with you on Boucher. He was very strong today and reading between the lines laid down a positive marker for Bkir into the future.

That's what I was saying. If he gets north of 30 he may well sell. So what's the point of anyone manipulating the price around 20c or even lower. With Shane Ross at the cabinet table there isn't a hope in hell they will sell at a price like that. Manipulation cost money. If there is that going on its not to buy the 14%.

That would assume that noonan is a distress seller willing to take any price for the shares. If Noonan did want a sale, which there is no sign that he does, he could have sold above 30c and actually made a profit. The other thing is.. to drop the price there needs to be more shares offered for sale than there are buyers on a given day. Would this guy not be out 250m already selling below the bid price trying to gain the 14% ?

pgee. Can you explain your opinion on the 14% on the cheap please. no sure i get it.

Torquay, here is a piece on Italy thats a little less heavy on detail. http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-why-italy-is-the-next-country-to-fall-to-trumpism-35219512.html

Put Dec 4th in your diary first. The Italian referendum has become hugely important to the euro and europe. A no vote, and it's no more that 50/50 now, and the euro will drop through the floor. I'm surprised there has been so little about it especially since the Trump win last week. Here's an article i read months ago that I thought was a little over the top. Not so sure now. http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/08/31/the-italian-referendum-could-result-in-the-death-of-the-euro/#60b0376c11da

Share price is up almost 6% on the day and the best part of 40% in the last month. We were at 17c exactly a month ago today. I'm not sure how anyone could think there is an effort to manipulate the price lower through the LSE or else where. predictions back a month ago was 15c. If anything a bit of profit taking would be no surprise.

Pension deficit unwind in Q4 to provide capital support Year-to-date, Bank of Ireland (BOI) has felt the negative impact of Brexit – falling yields on its pension deficit – more acutely than peers. Added to this, operating efficiency is not expected to improve over our forecast horizon. However, this ignores significant investment costs that will produce tangible benefits in the medium term. Taken together with rising bond yields and a halt to sterling weakening, this should provide a positive backdrop for Q4. We update our valuation methodology, incorporating a revised method of assessing deferred tax assets to our existing approach while also introducing a sum-of-the-parts valuation. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating with a 25.1c price target.

Anyone an interest in the bond markets. Massive change in the last week. BKIR will have a major benefit. No more cheap bonds for the ecb to buy but would it be true to say they are also sitting on a huge profit from the bonds bought already.

@equitrder. Difficult to find an overlay interactive chard for a share and a currency. I have a static one from a brokers report that i use as a guide. after that its a spread simple spread sheet. no real way of pin pointing what stg level = a share price because movements vary over a short time period. the relationship between both over the last 18 months has been extremely close and at the moment the trend continues. Bkir has pulled a little ahead though for now.

based on what happens at the end of most days its likely we'll finish just short of .22c (.2175?) Dublin is at .218c. nothing to complain about though.

Not big on moving avgs. what price is the break point at. Trump is killing me on TSLA but at least this might be a bright side.

It could be rising because Mr Farage is tipped to be the next US Sec of State. At least thats what Nigel tipped yesterday.

News Bank of Ireland and the broader European banking sector have been a key beneficiary of on-going sector rotation out of consumer staples and defensive stocks into more cyclical and cheaper value sectors since Trump won the US Presidential race. Global bond yields have risen materially since Wednesday morning when his appointment become official. 10 year yields in the US have risen from 1.82% to 2.12%, 10 year German yields increased 20bps to 0.30% and 10 year Irish rose 25bps to 0.88%. We have also seen a re-steepening in bond yield curves as the fiscal expansion the President-elect will likely enact should be inflationary and supportive for bank’s Net Interest Margins. Comment Bank of Ireland recently reported a solid Q3/16 IMS with impressive Net Interest Margin growth and improved asset quality gains. It also reported a €250m jump in its pension deficit, however this should more than reverse given the recent increase in yields over the past week and should be accretive to its capital base, in addition to 30bps of organic CET1 capital it generates on a quarterly basis. BOI broke through key resistance at 20.7c this week, which was the previous post-Brexit high and had been tested and held on 4 separate occasions. The broader European banking sector has positively re-rated over the past month from 0.6x P/B to 0.75x supported by higher yields and reduced investor sentiment on the back of Deutsche Bank and the NPL situation in Italy. BOI currently trades in line with the broader European sector at 0.75 FY16e P/B. The bank has rallied 28% over the past 3 weeks which has brought the stock into overbought region from a Technical Analysis perspective. However, we remain positive on the bank over the next 12 months and see further upside potential towards our 12 month target price of 23.8c and anticipate the Group reinstating a dividend relating to FY17 financial year.

@cooking. Its because of brexit, reinforced by trump that we find ourselves been one of the winners this week. Fear of contagion through europe could well bring about a policy change that will force Mario to take his boot off the throat of the banks. Keeping the mind focused on brexit might well be a positive for banks. Now I know that trump and brexit are both huge negatives for Ireland but for now they are both some time off impacting the real economy in a big way. The banks share price collapsed post brexit because of the stg..euro re-rating which was immediate. Was it 5billion on a constant currency bases that Boi lost of its loan and deposit books. In the last few days that hit has been reduced by about 2 billion. The trump win has led to expected inflation and interest rate rises in the US. That has increased the value of bonds BoI holds by an estimated 300mil which brings the pension deficit back below 1 billion. That recalculates up the key CET1 ratio and the NIM. Cantor Fitz have a bit about that I'll sopy and paste after this. Hence, if this was Dec31st the banks FY16 results would look a lot better than expected after the last IMS. Hard to predict what will happen tomorrow no less 6 weeks time but until trump actually takes office and makes the decisions he promised we have to assume he wont be able to stop himself talking the talk. So looking good for the next few weeks but having said that this has been the year of several black swan events so time will tell. I mean who would have predicted a year ago that a Co Clare hotel owner would be president elect of the US.