Member Info for johnmcclean

After the vote passes the bank has to go to the courts to get legal permission to form the new company. probably mid summer before anything happens.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/state-may-take-lower-price-to-get-top-investors-to-buy-into-aib-35591080.html "But Noel O'Halloran, chief investment officer at KBI Global Investors said most European banks now trade at a discount. "There is no shortage of bank paper in Europe," he said and emphasised that Ireland is not "commanding a premium at the moment".

what to do with it and when is the question. If they dont do something soon, some vulture fund is going to cop on that cash and assets are worth alot more that an 11c share price.

I doubt their reasoning is any more than very expensive guess work, and no more valid than you will read on here for free any day. https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/6254-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-morgan-stanley-call-feb-17/amp

thats a hell of a jump from .87 today. They must be predicting a potentially great deal for the UK or a collapse of the Euro.

I agree. Boi are way behind on tech and i have complained to the bank about not been able to use android pay. They are spending hundreds of millions upgrading the hardware now but it will be a 3 year program. I also agree that not having the most modern tech limits the interest of younger customers. With mortgage rates so competitive its selling the customer experience that can make the difference between winning new business and loosing it. BoI really need to pull their socks fast. As it is they are only winning a 25% share of new mortgage draw downs. That's poor when they have such a dominant market position.

AIB is been valued by BANKERS on behalf of the SELLER. the 12 billion has no relevence to what potential buyers will actually pay for it. It is much more lively that buyers will aim to pay a price closer to the BoI share value. 2 billion for 25% maybe. Noonan is looking at allowing private individuals a chance to buy shares. That would mean he would have to fix an initial share price. I assume that's to try and preempt institutions bidding too low and to set some kind of marker. If Noonan is still minister of finance in a couple of months (not so sure he will be) he will have a tight rope to walk in setting the right price.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-10/ecb-said-to-have-discussed-whether-rates-can-rise-before-qe-ends-j03znorw

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/moody-s-says-bank-of-ireland-plan-to-modernise-it-crucial-1.2993588

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/richie-boucher-on-brexit-branching-out-and-why-the-crash-has-changed-banking-forever-35482548.html

I don't really want to get into conspiracy theories but it's the the day after the day before so here is one. What if it's nothingto do with bkir and the government owned 14%. What if it's all about AIB and the 99.9% state owned shares. The only real way to value the shares when they do finally come up for sale is with a bkir comparison. As AIB can't be manipulated itself then it stands to reason the cheaper bkir is the cheaper big chunks of AIB will be. That's where the big bucks will be made. We are just collateral damage.

Its still a very profitable company and once we get over the annoyance of no dividend I wouldn't bet too much on sub 20's. Its going to take a few years for brexit to bite and trump still has too keep his big tax cut and infrastructure promise. Europe, despite everything is improving and banks should be one of the winners as the ECB normalises policy. House building is finally getting back on track here as is employment. House Prices continue to move up so a lot less negative equity and better write backs eventually. Careful shorting Equi because at 22c there are some that would see bkir as a good bet for a 20% return over the next year.

The tax payer has already been repaid in full by the bank. the 14% it still owns is 100% profit. the state is now very close to balancing its book and could well decide to hold the 14% of bkir and claim the dividend. That would not be policy at the moment but Noonan's days as minister of finance are numbered (60 or so i suspect) and a new minister will have his say.

Comment Overall these are a strong set of results. The market is likely to be disappointed with the non-payment of a dividend as it was expected by the majority of analysts. Bank of Ireland’s share price has been under pressure in recent weeks due to increased political uncertainty in Ireland and across the Eurozone, particularly in France and Greece. This coupled with a retracement in European bond yields (20 year AA European Corporate Bond Index yield has moved from 1.90% to 1.65% and 10 year German yields have retraced from 0.50% to 0.23%) has seen Bank of Ireland retrace from 26.6c highest close in January 2017 to just above a key support at 22.7c. Also the strong correlation between a strengthening pound and BKIR’s share price has also broken down in recent weeks as a re-strengthening in the pound hasn’t benefitted its share price. The stock currently trades at 0.84x FY17e Price/ Book. In recent years the Group has normalised its funding structure, regained access to the capital markets, redeemed expensive CoCo funding, it has vastly improved the asset quality of its balance sheet reflected in the substantial reduction in NPLs over the past 3 years and now plans to re-instate its dividend in 2018 relating to 2017’s financial year for the first time since the financial crisis. This is a testament to the high quality nature of the bank’s senior management team. We maintain our 12 month target price at 27.2c, 16.7% above yesterday’s closing price.

A billion in profits, which many publicly quoted companies can only dream off, and it feels like they lost money. Ok so from a business point of view prioritizing a modern computer system and been cautious on the future might make some sense, but no dividend this year is a real let down for share holders. On the numbers today they could have paid out 200mil and changed the picture considerably for us. A dividend paying company opens up a huge new range of individual and institutional investors. as it stands we now have another year in limbo. A dividend would have been a port to anchor in during some very stormy political seas for this year. The important numbers were actually very good. NIM , CET1 and new lending were all on track and will improve in 2017. They also have considerable write backs available. ANNOYING.

Davy's are the only one as far as I know that are predicting a payout of 2016. At one time they had the inside track on BoI but not so much now. If a dividend is not promised at the very least for H117 on friday it will be very disappointing.

Bank of Ireland is due to report FY16 results on Friday (February 24th). We are forecasting pre exceptionals Pretax Profit of €933m (BOI also reported exceptional gains of €92m in H1). We estimate a full year FY16 NIM of 2.17%, which equates to 2.25% in H2. We are budgeting for a 63% cost/income ratio and a 21bps credit charge (€179m). Favourable pension deficit swings will help see BOI’s Q316 10.5% CET1 ratio rebound to 12.0% in Q416. BOI hits our target capital level of 12.5% in Q217, so our base case remains that it will declare a dividend at the H117 results. In the absence of any FY16 dividend, investor’s focus is likely to be on BOI’s comments on IT costs as it gears up its Temenos investment. At the start of this investment, the risks are biased to cost inflation. We forecast its €400m annual IT spend drifts up to €500m and looking at FY17 consensus forecasts we are c.€45m higher on costs. Elsewhere, in our view, consensus FY17 earnings assets are c.5% too high. The resumption of dividends (H117 rather than FY16) as the CET1 improves, the stabilisation of the Irish loan book in H117 and the improving yield/rate outlook underpin the c.20% upside to our 28c PT.

https://cantorfitzgerald.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Bank-of-Ireland-FY16-Results-Preview.pdf?utm_campaign=1667960_Bank%20of%20Ireland%20FY16%20Results%20Preview&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Cantor%20Fitzgerald&dm_t=0,0,0,0,0

Bank of Ireland will grow its loan book this year, after a near decade of decline, Davy Stockbrokers said in a wide-ranging report on the banks. SHARE Bank of Ireland and AIB may pay full year dividends for 2016, Davy said. The report said "significant in-market consolidation" is unlikely in the near term in the banking sector, despite some focus on potential deals including KBC or Ulster Bank. In a broadly positive update, Davy said Bank of Ireland and AIB may pay full year dividends for 2016, and that capital requirements are now "undemanding" for Irish lenders.

I guess you are a class half empty guy. I see this country completely differently. I see a country where if your sick you can be seen by and treated by some of the best nurses and doctors money can buy and for free. You may have to wait on a trolly for time to time in the busy hospitals but its a fair trade off for the service you get. In many other first world countries to get the best treatment you pay through the nose for insurance or tax. I see a county where even the poorest kids can get a degree for free and where even if you middle class you get a degree for a pittance compared to some places. If these educated kids want to head abroad for a better life they are not stopped even though the tax payers that funded that education will loose out on their skills. Its rubbish to say the only can go to english speaking countries. The Irish are is every city and country in the world. Its their choice what language they learn at school. the state does not force them to like French, Spanish or German. I had that choice 30 years ago never mind today. I have no time to write any more but I could go on. PS. some kids do go to school but there is a breakfast provided in plenty of school all over ireland.