Member Info for johnmcclean

Unfortunately my laptop froze writing my response to the in correct comments you wrote in the second half of your post and I lost it all. I haven't the will to write it all again but I totally disagree with everything you say. Just check any comparison on the economy, education or health v the rest of the world and ireland is way up there. We didn't get there by accident. We were lead there by our governments over the decades. We didn't have natural resources to back us up or beautiful weather to draw in tourists. We made the right choices at the right times including joining the EU. fair enough they were a huge help to Ireland but so too were they to plenty of other countries that have not prospered near as much as Ireland with equal help. Politicians are convenient targets but despite how they are perceived and acknowledging a few blips ours have lead Ireland reasonable well over the years.

Trump is a vindictive bast**d. the fact that he holds a grudge against Germany that goes back to his grandfather is not a surprise. He's also a bully and does not like the fact the Merkel is not afraid to stand up to him. I'm sure there are plenty of other reasons ( he's not a hard man to get on the wrong side off) including economic as well.

Continues on his merry way splitting the States down the middle. Definitely can't call it the United States any more. I do think there is a silver lining to all this. Voters in Countries like France and Germany are a lot more likely to avoid crazy right or even harder left candidates when they see what could be ahead for them. I think Merkel will win easy enough in Germany and that Emmanuel Macron will win in France. Both very pro Europe. Bkir have enough headwinds to deal with so a stable Europe would be a major positive. Just my opinion for what's it worth.

For such a dedicated watcher of BKIR you should make an effort to know your facts or are you a proponent of Alternative Facts . 1. In the last 2 yrs Bkir has NEVER gone fron 22c to 30c either before or after brexit. 2. As of year end 2016 the pension deficit has improved to around €1 billion. 3. Bkir has only used Write backs once so far. They hold the position now of property prices 48% from peak while the PPI stands at 30% giving them plenty of scope for write backs should they decide to use them. 4. Bkir will declare adjusted profits (with no write backs) of €1.1 billion or more in a month from now. After exceptional items the bank will have a profit of €700 million or so. The 4 above are real facts. this is not but its 80% sure. 2017 results will be comparable and 20% of €700mil will be made available for a dividend payment to be announced either next month or at the agm.

For any one interested in politics this is an unbelievable time. Game of Thrones wouldn't come close to the political intrigue. Did a US president or any of the worlds craziest dictators ever make such an isolationist, divisive, negitive, or confrontational acceptance speech in history before. And then to follow it up with the most bizarre down right day of lies about nuclear war...sorry I meant the size of his...CROWD. Ok, I know the lies were contrived so he wouldn't have to talk about the real story, the Pu**y rebellion. GUBU (google it) comes to mind. Leave President Trump (really??? President Trump) behind for a minute and look at Brexit. Before the end of March the UK WILL invoke Article 50. That is the equivalent of pressing the fire button on all dodgy trident missiles and praying at least 1 hits its target and none land in your own back yard. There is no going back once that button is pressed and the 2 year clock starts counting down. Parliament voting on any agreement is a red herring because it wont matter what they say. The real say is in Europe and at this moment May is making all the wrong moves. Who ever is advising her is a prat. Threatening the destruction of the union if she doesn't get her way was not the way to go and the danger of Her getting sucked into a Trump web is worse. He is likely to lead her down the wrong path and further damage her chance of a decent deal with Europe. I know some are attacking Sensetalk for his talk of BKIR going back below 20c. Some of his points are wrong but if May continues on the path she seems intent on then it will happen. We may well hit 30c before then but without a deal giving the UK EU market access and some sort of free trade then we are in big trouble and thats a certainty. Of course its also a certainty that it will recover again when the dust settles but we are years from a 40c party. Maybe 5. Sorry guys but thats the way I see it from where we stand now. To finish I'll just go back to the Pu**y marches all over the world. There is the seeds of a turning point in this far right movement in the protests. If the French Middle or german middle could harness or tap into that rebellion against Trump and far right policies then maybe there could be a turning point in Europe.

Today was no more than a first step in whats going to be a long and most likely public negotiation leading eventually to some sort of brexit, Mrs May has opened with as high a bid as she can and no doubt the EU will come back tomorrow telling the UK that they will get absolutely nothing from europe . The truth of course is that they will eventually meet in the middle. The problem for May is that now that she has told the UK public and the pro brexit crowd what the UK wants they are not going to be happy with anything short of the 12 points laid out today. When it comes to the political vote at the end of all this there is as much chance of the pro brixit side voting no to the deal she brings to them as the stay side. Unfortunately ireland is going to be a bigger looser in all this than the Uk. There is almost NO upside for Ireland as it stands today. Its going to take a while to play out and in that time there is a huge responsibility on Irish politicians from all sides to protest our interests even if it means been the only ones in Europe that work on the side of the UK. That will be hard for some to hear but the best possible deal for the UK is the best deal for us.

At 38c there was no reason to complain but before Brexit happened we were on a year long slide. In that time there was no effort that I can remember to sell the business case of the bank and maybe even some sort of share consolidation event would have arrested the slide.. It's a €billion profit company stuck in penny share land. What restrictions? Tech is already huge in banking and BoI is way behind AIB never mind other providers. Now they are starting to spend millions to catch up. €400 million next year is been suggested and in fact that spend has the potential to dent a dividend. They are not restricted now on selling through mortgages brokers which they should do because not only are they not growing market share they are loosing it. thats at a time of little competition. wait until demand grows and outside banks start to look at the juice rates available in ireland again. BoI should be positioning themselves ahead of the curve now and not playing catch up in a couple of years time.. Richie played a huge part in saving thousands of us small share holders from total wipe out so he is entitled to go at a time of his choosing. That does't mean we can't speculate though.

I for one think it is time for him to go. Fair enough he was a steady hand during a very bad time but for the last couple of years he has been non existent. The bank seems to be on auto pilot and not near aggressive enough A..in establishing a dominant position in Ireland at a time of so little competition and B.. defending shareholder value.

Good to see Richie and Ross are good buddies still considering the position Ross has how. I think its only a matter of time before Richie leaves BoI. He has to keep his promise to restore a dividend and that's his job done.

Bank of Ireland Capital to rebound c.150bps in Q416; PT raised to 28c We released a report on Bank of Ireland yesterday morning increasing our PT to 28c (previously 25c), driven mainly by favourable movements in BOI’s pension deficit. We updated our fully loaded CET1 capital forecasts to reflect the recent uptick in corporate bond yields. At Q316, BOI’s fully loaded CET1 retraced to 10.5% largely after the pension deficit widened to €1.45bn. However, we estimate recovering bond yields in Q4 are likely to add c.120bps to capital. Also, a 30bps Q4 profit contribution and 20bps for a life company dividend should offset the 20bps hit from its late December capital developments. As a result, FY16 fully loaded CET1 should finish strongly at 12.0%. We also made adjustments to the mix of our P&L estimates, though our net income forecasts for FY16-18 are unchanged. Net interest income improves by €40-50m in FY17-19f to reflect better NIM momentum in Q4 and slightly better prospects for liquid asset returns further out as yields rise. However, we have also raised our costs again by €40-50m as BOI embarks this year on its large IT investment. Our estimates now allow for c.20-25% volatility in 2017 and 2018 on BOI’s current annual €400m IT spend. The Q416 pension swing sees CET1 reach our 12.5% target by H117, meaning a cash dividend in Q417 is now our base case, from Q218 previously. Despite the capital improvement, an FY16 final dividend (results due February 24) may be just too early given Brexit uncertainties (c.40% of loans in UK), the IT investment plan and any residual TRIM related risks (target review of internal models). The pension swing lies behind our PT move from 25c to 28c. Any further bond yield tailwinds (+7/8bps ytd) would be positive for capital (every 25bps move adds c.85bps to CET1 plus 1.3c to TNAV), dividends and medium term NIM. We reiterate our Buy.

Press reports this weekend that Bank of ireland is going to offer mortgages in Ireland through brokers for the first time in years. Market share is going to be important now that the demand is starting to grow again.

I suspect she's sorry she took the top job just at the worst possible time. Not only will she have to deal with the brexit disaster, but the Scotland issue is now joined by the never ending NI issue. Looking at McGuinness this evening I think his time at the top of SF may be over and that could open up a bit of a change for a normally very controlled nationalist side. The up coming election there is going to turn into a for and against europe vote. To add to her woes the biggest friend the UK has is about to be governed in such an unpredictable way that it will be impossible to know where you stand, and when your choice of go between is between Boris and Nigel you really are in trouble. Any leader would struggle and to be honest I don't see many obvious candidates for her job, in any party.

I agree with everything you say Hotdog, especially the last 2 lines. That's actually why I am thinking this will be the big year for bkir. If the stock does not price is the actual performance and maybe even a little extra by FY17 results in March 2018 I think we are in for a tough time after that. I do not think Trump will ever listen to anyone..ever. He is an impeachment waiting to happen. I'm hoping he has a couple of good years first but the end result will be a bust one way or another. Same applies to Brexit. Worth looking at what the big guys are doing. Buffet for one never had such a cash position.

This is the year I have always set down as decision year on BKIR. Sell all, Sell half or hold. Unfortunately Brexit has muddied the waters and even though every other indicator that would drive the share price forward will be positive this year its unlikly there will be any positive premium for future growth given to BKIR. What I mean by that is, most shares are given a little extra in the share price to allow for the growth prospects into the future. From what I see BoI doesn't and may not for some time yet. It lags its true potential. I know brexit hasnt happened yet but so far the UK economy has held up well. When Article 50 is triggered in March thats when the real clock starts ticking and there will be a minimum of 2 years where its quite possible the UK might just continue to do well. Its unfortunate that the exchange rate has such an instant impact on BKIR's bottom line because the UK business could actually be very good for a while yet. Its only when the iceberg finally becomes unavoidable that the real damage will become apparent. Around the same time and steaming for the same iceberg, only from the other side of the Atlantic , the Trump ship will be about to flounder. If his supporters haven't realized by then what a loose canon Don is and that he is wearing the most expensive Emperors Clothes ever made I'll truly be shocked So, and apologies for thinking out loud, 2017 looks like been a very good year for bkir as far as business progress and share price goes but a very solid dividend yield been the only incentive (as of now) to stay in much longer than year end '17 or March '18 at best. I do believe the opportunity to buy back in will come again but for now that will be my plan as far as bkir goes.

cantor fitz News Bank of Ireland (BKIR) has been the 2nd best and best performing stock in the ISEQ Index and our Core Portfolio, respectively in the first week of 2017, up 11.5% in just two trading sessions. Positive sentiment has been broad based towards European financial stocks in 2017 with the Euro Stoxx 600 Bank Index being the best performing sub-component of Euro Stoxx 600. On the 9th December, we discussed “10 tailwinds which are benefitting Bank of Ireland’s share price” and the majority still hold true apart from the recent stabilisation in higher bond yields in Europe and a modest weakening in the pound since, with EURGBP moving from 83.8p to 85.6p. Comment Bank of Ireland’s share price closed 2016 at 23.4c, marginally below our 12 month target price of 23.8c from our “Brexit Aftermath: Significant negativity reflected in the price” report issued in July 2016. We maintain our “Outperform” outlook on the stock, however we are moving our target price to “Under Review” as we update our financial forecasts and model to reflect year-end 2016 numbers. The bank is due to release FY16 results on the 8th March. From a technical standpoint, BKIR’s share price is trading within a welldefined upward sloping trend channel since October 2016 and we see a band of resistance between 27c – 27.4c which could lead to a period of consolidation given the sizeable rally seen over the past 3 months if achieved in the near term. 27.2c is the pre-Brexit referendum closing price. It has re-rated to exactly 1.0x FY16e Price/ Book, a slight premium to the broader Stoxx 600 Bank Index at 0.85x.

if anyone had come on here this day last year and told me we would be at 24c a year later and worse that we would actually be relieved to be there, well I for one would never have believed it possible. Yet here we are and all this year has done is laid the ground work for an even more uncertain 2017. So pointless trying to predict where we will be this time next year. Best we can do is be thankful if we all make it through the year and be here to celebrate any improvement and complain about any deterioration when we get there. Have a happy Christmas everyone and I look forward to seeing what you all have to say as we muddle through whats going to be a very interesting 2017. Nollaig shona dhaoibh!

So the bank ends the year by knocking 20bps off its CET1 ratio as a result of a re-rating of the risk on its irish loan book and the insurance against default on other loans. Hopefully the ECB will find that the risk rating is fair now because that 8% change had quite a big effect on the CET1 according to the RNS (-60bps). Luckily the other transactions were positive. http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bank-of-ireland-dividend-in-doubt-as-risk-profile-is-revised-1.2916390

There is the other side of the coin to capital outflows from europe and thats currency weakness. With the dollar getting stronger by the week Europe is getting a real boost that will almost guarantee much stronger business growth. ireland will be a particular winner from a weaker Euro. There is also another interesting side effect. With plenty of cash flowing into the US and a strong currency they will be in a great position to go barging hunting in Europe. I would be very surprised if there wasn't a few big M&A's next year and that includes in Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bank-of-ireland-shares-upgraded-as-bond-yields-rebound-1.2905792

thats from Cantor Fitz by the way not me.