Member Info for johnmcclean

things hotting up for the great pretenders on either side of the Atlantic.

Just looking at the background noise around the markets. The shortage of dollar's seems to be a big thing. The fed are making an effort to plug some of the holes but it looks like the printing press is going to have to get going sooner rather than later and US rates will need to drop. The US economy might be a bit shakier than it was but that's not the problem. Because of the trade war with China most of the currencies V the dollar are falling and the $ is just too strong. It's screwing up US exports and as I mentioned before, causing real pain for anyone borrowed in $. There's talk of a major EU bank on the wrong side of the $ and in real trouble. No one will be surprised which one. Naturally if anything does happen birg will suffer. If I was a trader i would continue to be long $ and gold and would not be a buyer of birg, even at today's price.

I'm not a shorting expert but I think it's a risky short. I would think that if a shock like Brexit did happen there would be a drop in a share in any way exposed to Ireland. That's not the same as property falling in value though. I still think that as long as the supply is below demand,
Interest rates are favorable and mortgage repayments are below or equal to rents there will be no major fall in property prices.

Is it residential property that's been shorted or commercial? I wouldn't be surprised if it was commercial.

At the minute I don't see a property crash of any significance. Demand is still there and will be for a while. What has happened is that the CB have maintained very strict rules so there is a price that the average buyers can't exceed. The help to buy scheme has a limited number of customers allowed. Its basically first come first served each year so its front loaded to H1. Those customs drive prices a small bit over the average but that steadies in H2.
House builders claim they can't build and make a profit. That is clear because we will build just over 20,000 or 21,000 this year. Not enough to meet demand and not enough to cause any kind of medium term bust.

I see we have been prororgued.
Does that mean we have to talk about the even more depressing subject of birg?
Or does anyone want to chip in and take a case to the uk supreme court. I'd say we could win.

I commented on this problem a while back. The US system is hugely short of dollar liquidity. The knock on effect of that is a stronger dollar. Unfortunately many countries and businesses borrow in dollars and are now caught in a bind. They can't get dollar to pay the debt or if they can it's very expensive. Who had lots of QE cash to be the lenders to these countries and businesses? Yes..EU banks? BoI has brexit to contend with but a large part of the problem is European banking contagion. The miss match in the Euro area monetary policy v the US over the last number of years could be about to bite the banking system in the butt.

good explainer. However banks are still been charged to deposit money over night. The balance on offer of cheap cash only becomes a positive when the banks lend the cash to borrowers. BoI has lots of cash to loan out already from deposits but can't find takers hence the stagnation in the loan book growth. At best they are not much worse off. draghi emphasized a numbers of times, national governments need to spend and create a climate of growth. That's a big ask with johnson and trump on the loose though.

QE is back.
RTE
"The European Central Bank today approved a fresh stimulus package as expected, cutting interest rates and approving a new round of bond purchases to prop up euro zone growth and halt a drop in inflation expectations.

The ECB cut its deposit rate to a record low -0.5% from -0.4% and will restart bond purchases of €20 billion a month from November, it said. "

Have to see what Draghi says but unless national governments introduce stimulus packages and capitol spending projects this is doomed to fail again. What QE has proved is you cannot force people scared of a recession to spend no matter what you do. We all know the old story of the battle between the wind and the sun to see who could get the man to take off his coat. The ECB are using the same tactics as the wind.

Meeting tomorrow.
Looking like QE is on the way back. 30 billion a month is on the cards.
Overnight deposit rates for banks going to negative 0.50 from negitive 0.40. Is expected.
Nothing positive for banks unfortunately.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/

JM
''I think it's fairly obvious now that a NI only backstop is in play''

"I think it is fairly obvious that you are completely wrong"

I think I am right. As I said the game completely changed when the 21 rebels were ditched from the Conservatives. You could see the tone on the pro brexit supporters side change. No guarantee it will lead to a break through though. The UK government cannot be trusted but for now the solution to so many issues can be solved by ditching the now irrelevant DUP and putting the border on the Irish sea. My post from Saturday still stands and every day the odds get better of this been the solution. For me the odds are about 50/50 now rather than 90/10 a few week ago.

"Yes it is. The UK are leaving the EU"

England is leaving the EU for sure because there is nothing more that the EU want at this stage. Not a given that the UK is though.

I think it's fairly obvious now that a NI only backstop is in play. If Johnson wanted to knock the idea on the head he could have done it today but he didn't. Now it's been spoken about openly. This joint food area is on the table now as the opening play but the obvious end game is the NI only backstop. It also looks to me that the fixer in No 10 might be on board after all. There is only 2 reasons he would be still in there, 1.. he agrees with the idea, which means he agrees with cutting NI loose and probably Scotland., 2..they are playing some game, which is possible and I wouldn't even bother trying to work out the angle on that one.
A crash out is still the best bet but the odds have shortened.

Reading different bits and pieces from the uk today and there seems to be a slightly different tone from the brexit press in where Johnson might be going. The PM seems to be cornered into 3 choices. 1..ask the EU for a time extension (and than die in the ditch). 2... Quit ( and go down in history as a failure) 3.. Do what he should have done in the first place and talk sensibly to the EU.

The deadlock breaking possibility been touted coyly is the original May deal for NI only. It started during the week when Johnson slipped in the Food area for IRE and NI in answer to a question. He knew that would never fly but it may have been put out there to see the reaction.

For the UK they then get the bulk of what they want. The hardliners won't be happy but the majority in the HofC will. The DUP won't be happy but I think they won't be as bitter about it as they were last year. Rep of IRE will take it happily. For the EU the talk is they won't need to open the WA again as this was the actual deal. Then, at May's request the border was moved from all of ireland to encompass all of the UK as an appendix.
If this is what might happen then I can not see Dominic Cummings agreeing. So if he's still there it's looking doubtful. If he quits or is kicked out then it's a good sign. And somewhere in there there's the question of a GE. Another big week coming up.

independent.ie

AN Irish politician will be front and centre of any future negotiations on a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, post Brexit.
Ireland's nominee to the European Commission, Phil Hogan, appears set to secure the powerful trade portfolio next week.
Two sources have told Independent.ie that the former Fine Gael minister will be appointed Trade Commissioner on Tuesday.

Guaridan
Boris Johnson’s Irish border plan stalls after 'disastrous' EU talks
"Boris Johnson’s first concrete proposal for replacing the Irish backstop has hit the buffers in the latest “disastrous” meeting between the prime minister’s chief negotiator and the EU.
In a heavily trailed move, Johnson’s envoy, David Frost, proposed an all-Ireland food standards zone on Friday, but the UK is also seeking to give the Stormont assembly a say on whether it would continue in the years ahead.

The attempt to give the proposed arrangement what British officials have described as democratic legitimacy by involving politicians in Northern Ireland was firmly knocked back by the EU. European commission negotiators said such a proposal would leave Ireland in a constant state of uncertainty over the future."

Not sure what they are going to talk about in Dublin on monday now. Is there even a point in meeting at all. The proposed bit about letting Stormont have a say on how long the food area stays is bizarre. When you see what happened over a bit of ashes what does Johnson think would happen in giving the DUP and SF a say. GUBU as CJH said.

Irish times.
“We also think there is scope for recognition of the practical reality on the ground in the agri-food sector in Northern Ireland. All that and indeed whether it could be extended to other sectors depends entirely on democratic control by the people of the United Kingdom.”
Johnson told the House of Commons this week he would discuss with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar next week how the island of Ireland could remain a single regulatory area for agri-food. His suggestion on Thursday that the principle of regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK could be a first step towards British acceptance of a version of the Northern Ireland-only backstop originally proposed."

"He was responding to little-reported comments by Johnson on Tuesday in the House of Commons suggesting that the island of Ireland would be treated as one regulatory unit in relation to agrifood.

Johnson said the UK was “ready to find a way forward that recognises [the] reality” that the island of Ireland, north and south, had evolved into one epidemiological unit. The remarks were an echo of the first proposal to solve the Irish border issue, which would have involved a Northern Ireland-only backstop with checks at ports and airports.

However, Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, said any suggestion that there could yet be a Brexit breakthrough on the basis of this single issue would be unrealistic as it did not address other issues such as identity, the integrity of the single market and culture.

If you knew it was going to 3.80 why did you sell a couple of week ago "The increase/decrease from 3.112 to 3.472 is 11.57 % increase what more do you want ???" you could have doubled your money. Just so we can all make a bit of cash....what price are you predicting for this day 3 mweeks Welsh boy. Some of use need a sure think at this stage after the way Birg and Bkir has robbed us.