Member Info for johnmcclean

The BIRG sp AND the AIB sp are not outliers as to their performance. They both track the European banking index
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/sx7p?countrycode=xx . Today it was down 2.83%. Birg was down 1.87% and AIB down 3.21%. Look at the 1y comparison to get the bigger picture. Almost every bank in Europe are in the same boat as irish banks.

nuri "Thats entirely false and misleading. NAV per share is €4.60. Their own cash on hand is well over €6 billion and their balance sheet is far healthier than Birg. be careful with your facts."

Fact: AIB was bankrupt. Fact: With a less than 40% free float it is an illiquid share to trade. That means that the stock will act differently in times of stress both on good days and bad days .
Where did I mention cash or value? If AIB is so much better than BIRG why are you not buying all AIB shares???

AIB did not survive the recession. It was bankrupt just like Anglo. It was 99.9% state owned with only the bare minimum left on the stock exchange so as to make a future sale easier. It's still 60% state owned and totally illiquid as a share.

Worth reading especially those thinking that investors or even society is going to get through this period unscathed .

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-thoughts-coronavirus-ray-dalio/

Nuri lets hope you know more about this virus than you do about share picks, but I doubt it.

In this case of cost cutting it a positive and required. The bank is spending a billion on new tech to achieve the savings and in an attempt to compete in a world where banking is one of the businesses marked out for major disruption. The new banking app is due this month as part of that investment.

with present interest rates and the returns available elsewhere it's inevitable cash will head straight back into stocks. A sudden route like this can turn positive just as quickly. As long as the orange man is around (and up for re-election) there will be more money printing and a rate cut (April?) to put a floor under the markets.

"You’d wonder at this low ebb would one of the big boys attempt a smash and grab takeover ? "

As long as the ECB continues with present policy I doubt it. In a time of zero interest rates banking is the last business you would want to be in. The big boys are hurting just as much as the small guys. There is always the chance the ECB could come up with a policy of "promoting" consolidation but there would be then the risk of bigger failures down the road. Not related but Kraft + Heinz didn't lead to a better company despite all the talk of "synergies"

All stock markets have a problem that has been talked about for the last few years especially. EFT's or Index trackers. Great with a rising market but a disaster once thing turn negative. As a tracker the funds are made up of large groups of shares so as to diversity the risk. When markets fall they trigger stop losses and the funds dump indiscriminately all the stocks, good and bad. That leads to steeper falls and other ETF's find that the shares in their fund's drop as a knock on and their stop loss is triggered....like domino's falling after that.
Warren Buffet has said ETF's are a great way for individuals to benefit from the stock market. I'll bet he hasn't invested in them. With a cash pile of well over 100 billion waiting for a time like this he'll be bargain hunting and all those that have been saying he's passed it will have to eat humble pie (again) this time next year .

While there is a general bear market it's hard to say if that's BIRG's problem or just the very poor results.
If you read the FY19 results and go to the section on forward guidance it's nothing more than a profit warning. For a start it cut the "targeted return on tangible equity (RoTE) for 2021 to c.8% (from in excess of 10%)". Then where the money is actually made, they cut the NIM form 2.14 to 2.05%. On top of all that they continue to grow CET1. They have now reached a normal level of NPL so no good news possible there but now with a risk it could go the opposite way again. The only good news is that the dividend policy is mantained but on much lower profits, 20% lower.

Nuri "Laugh is look at the Shanghai composite - its hardly down.... China is the epi-centre of the virus and it continues as if nothing has happened. JOKE!"

The Shanghai composite dropped 8% at the start of this but seeing as the Chinese Government can use a state-owned financing company and its sovereign wealth fund to buy company shares on the index you can NOT use it in any kind of a comparison.

I don't see much changing over 2020. Brexit will still be an issue as will the ECB. Lots of other little clouds gathering with not much on the sunny side. With the new tech system due shortly there will be a staff and branch cull to follow. Cost cutting might just about keep the share price treading water for the year. Interesting to see what forward guidance is given.
if it wasn't for the dividend there would be no reason to hang in here.

38 + 12 + 6 +6 =62.

"Hearing new Gov't will be
FF,Greens,SocDems and Labour with a backstop by FG for budgets.."

That will never happen. No party will ever prop up a minority government like FF did FG again. You spend all your time defending the policies of the government without having any input.

"FG + FF + Greens = 85 seats. They are just 160 seats"

Not going to happen. The vote was for change more than anything.

"FG + FF + Greens = 85 seats. They are just 160 seats"

Not going to happen. The vote was for change more than anything.

With all seats filled there are actually 87 seats available without FF or FG so plenty left leaning TD's to for a government with. I can only assume that will be obvious to the markets tomorrow. With both banks and reit's in the firing line it may not be a good day for birg
... again.

He's been saying that for years. If Kerry survived that's all he'd cares about.

As it happens you picked the perfect example. Last night on RTE after he was elected Michael H- R stood beside Pa Daly SF in kerry and when asked if he would do a deal with SF said if it was a good deal for Kerry he would have to seriously consider it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/up-the-republic-up-the-ra-and-tiocfaidh-%C3%A1r-l%C3%A1-sf-td-1.4168797