Member Info for johnmcclean

No. but this "baby" will be an pensioner before it gets to €5 otherwise.

a 3 for 1 share consolidation maybe ... possibly 4.1

I like your optimism Santiagos. Ireland had/has the best and fastest growing economy in europe for a number of years now. Compare that to the bank price chart for the same time frame. Printing cash and low interest rates are a total negative for the share price. NPL are or rather were below a normal 5% or total so not the issue. Banks and this one in particular is out of favor with investors for so many reasons. That is unlikly to change in the short term.

The way CB's are printing cash the only place to be now is in stocks. When that stops it will be the last place you would want to be.

The S&P has become nothing more than a giant ponzi scheme traded by AI and funded by the Fed. The worse the economy does the better the markets. The Fed printers are flat out trying to keep enough dollars in the system. A large % of that still warm cash is flowing like a river into stocks. What happens next is anyone's guess because we are in a totally new era of money.
That applies to the EU as well. Once Germany kept a reins on the ECB, now they have even given up.
As for Birg. it's not in the worst position. Spain, Portugal and Greece banks .....are they really solvent? Countries built on tourism have got to be broke. All that's propping them up is the ECB. For how long and at what cost. Does it even matter to anyone anymore? Is it the new norm?

" I am going to move my BOI holding over to DEGIRO also"

thinking of doing the same but from Cantor

Will you have to sell and buy again or can it be transferred directly to the new broker?

Thanks Observe. Well explained.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0518/1139008-covid19-coronavirus-italy-economy-recovery/

France and Germany has proposed a €500 billion fund to finance the relaunch of the European Union's economy, which is facing the biggest post-war crisis because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Financed by "borrowing from the market in the name of the EU", the fund will flow to the "worst hit sectors and regions" in the 27-member bloc.

Countries benefiting from the financing would not have to repay the sum, said France's President Emmanuel Macron.

"We are convinced that it is not only fair but also necessary to now make available the funds... that we will then gradually repay through several future European budgets," said Chancellor Angela Merkel.

open to correction but I think euro area banks are required to sell and hold on their balance sheets a % of bonds that offer no protection to the bond buyer. So unlike last time the holder gets zero if there is any bank bale out. This may be one of these cases so to compensate the interest paid is higher.

"Trump then issued a brainless comment afterwards of his intention to sever ALL relations with China. This 'animal' should be put down."

Note date and time below.

Newsweek
U.S.
TRUMP THREATENS TO 'CUT OFF THE WHOLE RELATIONSHIP' WITH CHINA, SAYS U.S. WOULD SAVE $500 BILLION
BY JASON LEMON ON 5/14/20 AT 9:33 AM EDT
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-threatens-cut-off-whole-relationship-china-says-us-would-save-500-billion-1504042

"Friday around lunchtime and that is why there was a huge sell off all over Europe."
I just can't see any huge sell off. DAX and FTSE both up 1.5% ish in the morning down 1% miday and finished up 1% for the day. Bit like Birg on Friday as well.

Regardless of our different version off events I'd still like to know why you expect a big jump up on Monday?

" Bank share prices were rising steadily until Trump announced another trade war with China over micro chips for Huaweii and then China imposing massive trade Tarifs on Apple products. Trump then issued a brainless comment afterwards of his intention to sever ALL relations with China."

Trump made that statement on thursday. Birg was up on Friday morning and bounced around a bit finishing the day up 1.5%. It may well be up Monday but can't see any connection to trump/ China. For the most part what trump says is ignored because he'll contradict himself later on. Interested in why you think it warrants a "major" increase on Monday though.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bofi-surprises-markets-with-625m-risky-bonds-sale-1.4253766

Bank of Ireland surprised financial markets on Thursday by setting out to raise €625 million through the sale of the riskiest form of bank debt.

The successful placement of so-called Additional Tier 1 notes is seen as a strong sign of confidence in the market surrounding the bank’s equity capital levels at a time when the coronavirus pandemic is forcing lenders to set aside money for an expected surge in bad loans

"Each year the UK gets a discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth about £4 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £17 billion in contributions."
The rebate is £4.5 billion but there's also a £5.6 billion public and private sector credit annually. Figures all available on the uk.gov website.

"Who cares not me, brexIt hooray ?? get over it!" I have been a supporter of Brexit from early on. Totally agree. the sooner the better.

The actual 5 year average (2014..2018) net payment from the uk to the EU was 7.8 billion. Actual ons uk figures.

The €155m is the equivalent to the drop in your pension fund. Since then the number will have improved. It just reflects the position on march 31st

When this statred the ECB immediately allowed the banks to keep the CET1 ratio at 2019 levels rather than grow them. The bank says today that they will keep the level above the 11.45%. That's very optimistic to my mind.

Loan impairments didn't begin until April in any real way so it's the next quarter you will see it. The results reflect very little of the shut down at all. The CET1 ratio is only down slightly and the NIM "in line with expectations'. This statement can be seen as the calm before the storm.

I have no belief in Goodbodys analysis going back a long way but that commentary is reasonable. Of course they will always favour AIB but both banks are joined at the hip most of the time so little between them. There is a risk that if AIBs market cap drops much lower they will find themselves out of favour with some indexes and struggle to grow the share price from there. BOI has a little more room for now but need to stay away from the €1 mark.
The ECB have given the banks enough monetary options so no chance either will fail. However, we are now entering another period of sustained zero interest rates. For the bank that's the slow kiss of death. Even if we avoid a second wave of this virus the effects of it on Birg have a long way to run yet.
If you were to do a pro and con list for investing in birg most on here would have only 1 point on the pro column...so far down it's not worth selling out now....

Millennium international management fund has opened a short position on BoI today ahead of next weeks Q1 report. It goes without say that the report will be bad. The number all eyes will be on is how much the bank will set aside for future bad loans. Millennium is betting on a nig number. The share price is already reflecting bad news so it come down to how bad the news is.

Lessons have been learned since 2008

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/eu-offers-banks-relief-on-bad-loans-rules-amid-covid-19-1.4239984