Member Info for JohnLewis79

Nyse data

Issues 2866

Advances 1480

Declines 1299

U/c 87

NH 112

NL 48

T/vol(bn) 4•3

------------

DJ -99 (44,149)

SP +49 (6084)

NS +396 (21,764) R

R2 +9 (1511)

WTI $70

10ytb 4•289%

----------

MSCI(W) +26 (3842)

Gold Bugs +12 (318)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 14. Brent $74.

Gold $2714. Copper 4•298.

Palm $1153. Silver $32•985.

$1•277. €1•215.

FF +12. DF -95.

Morning all.

At half time sellers cont to outpace buyers by 51,000 to 35,000 on 91 trades dealt. Share price (1000) u/c on the week to date.

Shares down 10% ytd absolutely not warranted. Expect a material change in sentiment during H2.

Results expected to be ahead of mrkt expectations is the language I like to hear from the board! Usually one hears...'in line with' Should see a decent bump at opening.

Issues 2856

Advances 1049

Declines 1728

U/c 79

NH 64

NL 30

T/vol(bn) 4•0

------------

DJ -154 (44,248)

SP -18 (6035)

NS -73 (21,368)

R2 -5 (1502)

WTI $69

10ytb 4•241%

----------

MSCI(W) -21 (3817)

Gold Bugs +1 (306)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 14. Brent $73.

Gold $2700. Copper $4•295.

Palm $1180. Silver $32•715.

$1•277. €1•213.

FF -21. DF -2.

Morning all.

Nov US inflation data nos will be the main point of interest for investors this week with the release of CPI nos on Wed and PPI nos on Thursday. The Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 bp. There is still some uncertainty about whether the Central Bank will continue to cut rates next year.

Stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the day with the Nsdq dragging the mrkt lower thanks to Chinese authorities launching an investigation into Ai leader Nvidia over suspected violation of antimonopoly law. Nvidia fell to $136 at the close.

On the big board only 11/30 made gains led by UH (whose CEO was shot dead last week), Boeing & Amgen while IBM, Travellers and Nvidia propped up the laggards. On US exchanges 15•11bn shares changed hands on the day with 9/11 sectors losing ground.

Nyse data

Issues 2846

Advances 1273

Declines 1506

U/c 67

NH 124

NL 17

T/vol(bn) 4•6

-------------

DJ -240 (44,402)

SP -37 (6053)

NS -181 (21,441)

R2 -4 (1507)

WTI $68

10ytb 4•195%

----------

MSCI(W) -17 (3838)

Gold Bugs +9 (305)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 14. Brent $72.

Gold $2668. Copper $4•248.

Palm $1199. Silver $32•560.

$1•275. €1•208.

FF -41. DF +2.

Morning all.

Well folks it's coming up to Santa Rally time, the year when investors seek inspiration from wherever they can. Its a bit of an old wives tale imo but in the spirit of the high jinks season here's the nos from last year which may inspire you to believe its a portent for or an early indicator of the year ahead and the 'January' effect on mrkts.

According to folk lore the Santa Rally is the last 5 days before the year end and the first 2 of the new year. I have the scorecard for the ftse as of this period. And in terms of the index the ftse opened at 7716 and closed at 7682 for a disappointing 34 points loss.

I doubt anybody told Santa his bag was full of holes as the index looks like posting a satisfactory 8% increase over the year and at the least beating inflationary pressures.

It's a bit of fun which nobody takes seriously but if your a believer? Check this. Over the last 20 years the Santa Rally has returned a negligible +0•385%.

Looking to the F/Y eps nos they should without any material increase achieve 70p. I think as long as forward revenue recognition are accounted in F/Y '25, we could hit eps of c.80p which at our current sp is c.13x earnings hardly onerous for a defence company with a strong global order book.

US aerospace and defence companies command much higher pe/ratios ranging from 55x to the average c.35x earnings and ebita margins of c.26% today. As you can see we lag the US by some margin and are unlikely to be narrowed any time soon.

However prospects of a f/y dividend nearing 20p should be good enough to keep investors happy until June'25.

Bulls of the ftse 100 say as political uncertainties subside companies in sectors that have been hit hard by consumer discretionary and public spending cuts

should benefit in 2025 and drive the mrkt higher in '25.

Among the best placed are housebuilders which should do well if Govt policy can get 1•5m homes built in the next 5 years. As we know skilled labour of all types are in short supply and many think 300,000 houses will be a challenge. Nevertheless its a sector to be exposed to despite slow build times and planning hassles. Below are some forecasts for the ftse in 2025.

Pessimistic 9030

Optimistic 10,390

Average 9710

I prefer to think we will chug along to its long-term historical average of 8%. I doubt much of the above will impact MSi this year outside of mrkts and global sentiment improving and the US economy continues to power ahead.

Any major restructuring of the company will have a huge bearing especially if the other divisions are sold leaving defence as a stand alone debt free business. Will it be a step too far for the board to contemplate?

It's a mixed picture across Asia this morning though S.Korea is down c.3% amid on going political turmoil. Law makers in SK failed to impeach the nations President over his short lived attempt to impose martial law. However the ex defence minister was arrested.

In Tokyo stocks are slightly better as index heavyweight Softbank gains with motors and exporters Panasonic, Sony & Canon up c.1-2%. Big loser on the session ZOZO down over 3%. Japan's GDP expanded 0•3% in Q3 exceeding forecasts. The 225 closed at 39,142 up 51.

In Australia the ASX200 traded down most of the session. Weakness across most sectors led by mining and energy stocks saw the mrkt claw back initial losses of 50 points to close up a couple of points at 8423.

Latest :- Vix 13. Brent $72.

Gold $2642. Copper 4•194.

Palm $1206. Silver $31•545.

$1•272. €1•207. 10ytb 4•138.

FF +12. DF -23.

Morning all.

Extremely annoyingly the Co continues to present the financial data in longitudinal form. Goodness knows why as most I speak to give up.

Sceptics like myself think it's designed to ensure investors press the 'move on' button.

Do you plough through reams of the account nos presented in this way? Let me know if you're a fan.

Nyse data

Issues 2858

Advances 1261

Declines 1518

U/c 79

NH 128

NL 58

T/vol(bn) 3•9

------------

DJ -123 (44,643)

SP +15 (6090)

NS +197 (21,622) R

R2 +1 (1511)

WTI $67

10ytb 4•170%

----------

MSCI(W) +7 (3855)

Gold Bugs -5 (296)

---------------

Close :- Vix 13. Brent $71.

Gold $2632. Copper $4•196.

Palm $1208. Silver $31•485.

Yen 150. Yuan 7•27.

$1•264. €1•205.

Morning all.

Have to hand it to the jobbers who managed to scare out many investors at rock bottom prices in the tumble from 1030 to 930. Very well played. However investors weren't done by a long way.

Seeing the blood letting many bided their time before jumping back in to pick up bargains for after all the results at first glance looked poor but on further consideration profits were up, dividends up so how bad was that? Yer usual over reaction provided the patient with plenty of cheap shares.

In the scramble to get back in buyers pushed the shares back to "levels you devils" by mid session. I did manage to nick a few down the bottom for no other reason than sheer pig headedness. I do like a bargain!

Anyways given the huge vols and nos of bargains dealt what follows is almost on a need to know basis....if you know what I mean? Think 90% accuracy as the buy/sell nos on London Stock Exc were different to lse data so pointless trying to identify individual trades (lse had 68,000 buys v 58,000 sells).

Today may have got the juices flowing unfortunately next week it will be back to "as you were" with a total news blackout until updated before year end on future strategic priorities.

Sp 1000-1040

1/24 850

H 1136

L 770

7/88 113

----

Trds 220

T/vol 169,455

Buys n/a

Sells n/a

% n/a

Av trd n/a

-----

Ytd

MSi +17%

100 +7%

250 +7%

A/S +8%

Aim -3%

---

Oil -7%

Gold +28%

Palm +29%

----

Have a good weekend all.

No, news to me but with this hopeless Govt I'd bet they want to cancel as many defence contracts as possible.

Spend millions on green policies that are unlikely to pay their way, keep pensioners in the cold and dark, give more money to their Union barons is the way ahead. Prepare yourself for more taxes as Starmer fritters the money away on Millipede's crackpot policies.

Buys v sells nearly on a par now. Been a terrific turnaround in such a short time and tbh that has surprised me. Let's hope it continues.

As the sp indicates sells of 45k to buys of 31k are much as we thought. Whether a diff of 11,400 between buy and sell warrant such a drop is a moot point. Tomorrow is another day and overnight investors will be reviewing the nos in a better light.

Also the board indicating further reviews on the strategic priorities of the group is nearly complete, is a step in the right direction.

In a few weeks most of us will have forgotten today's nos and will be looking forward to a much better H2.

"Revs until later this year or the following years" has likely spooked investors. But from memory profit distribution has been lumpy in the past so shouldn't be a major surprise to investors. Oh well it is what it is......

Picking up slowly from 930 low.

OK I give you the timing dip is not a disaster but you know what mrkts are like and they won't like that! I can see an opportunity to buy much lower this morning if your still a believer?

Increase in the div to 5p is the sole item of interest for holders. Great to hear that in the years ahead everything will be hunky dory but in the meantime? Doubt investors will be much impressed expect the shares to open considerably lower.