Member Info for JohnLewis79

Just for context various other causes of fatalities this year.

Covid-19 (270,720)
Flu (171,000)
Under 5s (2.671m)
HIV (591,000)
Cancer (2.885m)
Malaria (345,000)
Smoking (1.757m)
Alcohol (879,000)
Suicides (377,000)

Due to Covid-19 State Banks in Indonesia have stopped all lending until further notice. REA had been in negotiations for additional loans and so have now asked for all repayments to be postponed this year.
Currently net debt inc $39m of Sterling Notes is $208m (£167m) or 380pps.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 3,917,627
China 82,886 +1
Total deaths 270,720
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,292,623 (76,928)
Spain 256,855 (26,070)
Italy 215,858 (29,958)
UK 206,715 (30,615)*
France 174,791 (25,987)
Germany 169,430 (7392)
Indonesia 12,776 (930)
Malaysia 6467 (107)

* 539 deaths yesterday
* 3045 cases per 1m pop
* 451 deaths per 1m pop
* 1.535m total tests
* 22605 tests per 1m pop
* 2nd highest fatalities.

Summary
Total cases 3,917,627
New cases 3983
Total deaths 270,720
New deaths 294*
Recovered 1,344,164 (34%)
* Mexico 257

A good start in Asia. Trade talks resumed if only by phone and advices from Wall were positive, crude looking to rebalance gave investor a lift Brent up 1% to $28.90.
In Huangzhou, Canton to us old'uns, restaurants are full, shops reopening daily and life very much back to normal reported a BBC correspondent on the World Service. Stocks across the region are up posting strong gains. Even the ASX200 put on 1% despite Reserve Bank of Australia's grim forecast of a 6% contraction and high unemployment stretching into the future.
At 1:25 JST
TK + 400
HK +240
SH +26
SK +24

Forget the Dow and SP500 it's the Nasdq where the action has been for most of this year.
As of 2.30pm US time the Nsdq had turned positive for the year due in large part to the FAANGs outperformance leaving the Dow, 500 & Small Caps far behind. The big techs have strong balance sheets and great cash flows making them popular for investor 'appreciation' seekers.

Another 3.17m signed on last week pushing the total to over 33.5m, the speed has been of sound barrier proportions equivalent to 50% of the UKs pop out of work in less than 2 months. A slight glimmer of hope it was the lowest new claims total since March and a Washington Post survey said 77% of those polled were confident of getting their jobs back.

Companies benefitting from a early reopening of the economy included Hilton Hotels up 2% ($72) MGM up 6% ($15), Carnival up 5% ($13.50) and Disney up 3% ($104) as long as the consumer is confident enough to resume spending. Topping the leaders was Boeing up 5% ($127) the laggards Pfizer off 3% ($37), these two interchange regularly.
UBER shares flat ytd gained $3 to ($33) on Q1 losses of c.$3bn, rides in April crashed 80% and eps 99%. LYFT like rival UBER has been hit by the virus but results were better than forecast, losses reduced to $400m on c.$1bn revs shares soared 22% ($31).

The Dow opened strongly up over 400 but has come off c.200 in afternoon trade as has been the trend of late, traders locking in early gains but in line to recover yesterdays losses. Nsdq nosed ahead of last year by just 4, up 24% from low (23/3) the best global performer by far. Crude inched up $24.01, hoping the carnage is over.
DJ +211 (23876)
SP +33 (2881)
NS +125 (8977)
R2 +20 (1283)

Nos: Oil $29.84. Vix 31.
Gold $1727. Palm $582.
$1.239. €1.114. PI 6263.
FP 6293. MSCI(W) 482.
IDR 14929. FF +26. DF+350.
Morning all.

In line, in as much as losses continued though on a bigger scale than 2018 and bigger than I thought. Cost of sales were up ($22m), PT loss of $43m, negative FEX movements knocked $8.6m, depreciation another $4.3m and mus'nt forget a $3.3 impairment charge and 'achieved' av cpo price was $19 less than 2018. Yet the agricultural operations were all better which makes the results so disappointing. With REA if you make it in the right you lose it in the left.

REA is seeking to postpone repayments due to banks this year, no doubt at a cost. Output was up but made no difference there are too many chains pulling the co back and if cpo heads lower the're going to struggle to break even for the H/Y before all the usual..... costs up, f/ex losses, more impairments, too dry, blah,blah blah.
Strictly on the nos it's a no brainer. Avoid.

Whether the unrealised assets will ever be recognised I dont know but the huge diff does not look like being closed anytime soon. Now at the mercy of the bankers or are they at our mercy, its touch'n go whether REA can survive should covid-19 crash demand further into Q3&4. A great cash cow for Bankers who will accede to the companies wishes. They must be as nervous if not more so than share holders.

As at H/Y
REA assets 1116pps
REA liables 678
Holders funds 438

Bank loans
Current 18pps
Non current 222pps

Current sp 51

51....not 54!

Malaysia slams the WHO for giving out antiquated advice. They advise adults to avoid Palm Oil in their diet during Covid-19 and use alternative oils like soya. They should consume unsaturated fats found in fish, avocado, nuts rather than fatty meat, butter, cream cheese, ghee & lard.

The WHO stands accused of promoting certain oils while brushing aside the demon palm. Palm has a natural balance of saturated and unsaturated fats to ensure the absorption of various dietary micronutrients and does not require hydrogen to prolong shelf life.
In large parts of Africa where fat consumption is below WHO recommendation levels palm fits the bill conveniently ignored by WHO.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 3,822,989
China 82,885 +2
Total deaths 265,084
China 4635

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,263,183 (74,807) +8
Spain 253,682 (25,857)
Italy 214,457 (29,684)
UK 201,101 (30,076)*
France 174,191 (25,809)
Germany 168,162 (7275)
Indonesia 12,438 (895)
Malaysia 6428 (107)

* 649 deaths yesterday
* 2962 cases per 1m pop
* 443 deaths per 1m pop
* 1.448 m total tests
* 21,330 per 1m pop
* 15% death rate

Summary:
Total cases 3,822,989
New cases 3146
Total deaths 265,084
New deaths 247**
Recovered 1,302,995 (34%)
** 197 in Mexico.

Pre market noises saw 27/30 Dow stocks in the black column led by GM whose Q1 nos ($294m) exceeded forecasts despite factory closures. Revs fell 6% to $33bn. GM said it hopes to have their factories firing on all cylinders by May,18th.

Disney which reported after the mrkt closed yesterday saw its stock come under early pressure as sellers decided the nos were a dogs breakfast and with the dividend cut there was no reason to hold. The outlook for the Co continues to look very gloomy, reliant as it is on consumer spending. US airlines are burning through $10bn a month as planes ferry an average of 30 passengers a flight. US carry per head nos have crashed 95% but are expected to be one of the first sectors to bounce back albeit nothing like previously. Shares in the big 4 continued on a c.3%-4% downward path. Boeing down among the laggards off $3 ($122) on lay offs (GE & Spirit Aero) in their supply chain. Aerospace companies are not the place to be right now.

The economy is all about the jobless, signing on claims in the private sector climbed to 20.2m (16%) of the workforce in April. A more closely watched jobs update from the Labour Dept will be released on Friday and is expected to show that jobs and vacancies have nosedived and are certain to hit 30m before the virus is defeated. Claims to date have already surpassed the 9m jobless in the '08-'09 recession.

Equities had other ideas and opened 170 better on back of Apple, Intel & techs rising strongly but soon ran into sellers and shed all gains by 10:am hitting an intraday low of 23661. Oils were lower as Iraq is accused of cheating on output cuts. WTI shed 6% to $23.11 at session low. Exxon ($44) down 2% & Chevron ($90) off 3% reflected the nervousness. The sector as a whole is down 40% in Q1.
Late on the Dow ran out of steam traders taking the easy course home selling out only the techs in the black.
DJ -218 (23665)
SP -20 (2848)
NS +45 (8854)
R2 -10 (1263)
WTI $23.97
10yt/b 0.696%

Nos:- Oil $29.70. Vix 34.
Gold $1694. Palm $573.
$1.232. €1.141. PI 6278.
FP 6156. MSCI(W) 478.
IDR 15095. FF +4. DF +66.

In Asia, Tokyo is back trading and mrkts are subdued with no material news to move prices. Three up, one down and a mixed picture across the Pan Pacifics.
At 1:05 JST.
TK +56
HK -133
SH +1
SK +5
Morning all.

$100 invested in the SP 500 would have returned $344 over the last decade. Had you been luck enough to have picked the runaway winner Netflix your 100 bucks is worth $3867 and rising.

If you had put $100 bucks into REA it would now be worth.... forget it, not a lot. Incidentally not one UK company is in the top 20 list.

As at 1st May 2020 REA has dropped out of the Ftse All Share mrkt cap stocks which list 677 companies.

No 1 A/Zeneca £107.6bn
No 676 Blue Jay £39.7m

MPE 407
Angl 507

Next review June 3rd. For REA to qualify the sp will have to reach 91.

As at 1st May 2020 REA has dropped out of the Ftse All Share mrkt cap stocks which list 677 companies.No 1 A/Zeneca £107.6bnNo 676 Blue Jay £39.7mMPE 407Angl 507Next review June 3rd. To qualify REA sp must be 91p.

Far East mrkts are quiet, Japan still on holiday. Resumption of trade and lockdowns being relaxed kept sentiment positive even as global infections increased yesterday.
TK closed
HK +158
SH +2
SK +25
Other Pan Pacifics were mixed Australia ASX200 c.1% down.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 3,727,808
China 82,883 +2
Total deaths 258,338
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,237,633 (72,271)
Spain 250,561 (25,613)
Italy 213,013 (29,315)
UK 194,990 (29,427)*
France 170,551 (25,531)
Germany 167,007 (6993)
Brazil 115,953 (7958)
Indonesia 12,071 (872)
Malaysia 6383 (106)

* 581 deaths yesterday
* 2872 cases per 1m pop
* 433 deaths per 1m pop
* 1,383,842 total tests
* 20,385 per 1m pop
* 15% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 3,727,802
New cases 3284
Total deaths 258,338
New deaths 311
Recovered 1,242,347 (33%)

Vaccine hopes, the gradual reopening of businesses and easing of restrictions was all it took to send the Dow up 200 by 10:00am. Market sentiment has improved markedly but overall fatalities & infections increased yesterday not what Trump wanted to hear so determined is he to get America back to work. A too early return to normal will almost certainly see the virus reappear down the line if no vaccine has been found. A number of US States have reopened which include Florida, Texas & California which had just 39 deaths yesterday.
The Wall St Journal reported that the Universities of Maryland and NY had begun injecting people with the first of 4 vaccine doses from *Pfizer & Germany's BioNtech. Its estimated that c.$3bn globally has been spent trying to find a cure.

Crude continues its bounce from historic lows rising to $24.79 as indebted producers cease
production and storage cont to gum up the works. *Chevron ($94) among the big board leaders. *Boeing down $6 at $125 has collapsed 61% since Jan propping up the losers. US airlines continued to fall on WB gloomy comments about their future, all off 4%. Passenger nos are down over 75% since the lockdown.
*Chinos Holdings a large retailer has filed for bankcruptcy and two world famous stores *Neiman Marcus (not quoted) and *JC Penney (0.21c) down 81% ytd were 'in talks' with lenders over their continued existence. *Hertz is off 40% in last 5 days on chapter 11 worries. The stock at $3 has dropped from $20 in January. *Walt Disney ($102) reports Q1 nos after the close and investors will want to know how Theme Parks, film delays and lack of live sports have damaged the business. WD has axed executives and furloughed 100,000 workers, shares down from $148 in Jan. *Starbucks ($73) say they will open 85% of their US stores limited to pick up and drive through only.

Late on in an interview on CNBC Fed Vice Chair said Q2 is going to see a very sharp contraction the like of which we have never seen before, which knocked the stuffing out of a broad based rally for indices to finish at near low for the day.
At close
DJ +133 (23,883)
SP +26 (2868)
NS + 98 (8809)
R2 +10 (1274)
10yr/tb 0.66%
WT1 $24.79

Nos:- Oil $31.10. Vix 34.
Gold $1711. Palm $578.
$1.244. €1.147. PI 6318.
FP 6292. IDR 15,117.
MSCI(W) 480. FF -25. DF+15.
Morning all.

Blimey it's as if the last few days never happened! Only 1 trade by 10:38, good or bad I'm uncertain.

I see no 'catastrophic' news on the numbers REA are going to report. What might upset the mrkt will be writedowns or adjustments due to currency swings impacting a expected reduction in losses.

Outside of that no other Black Swan event. We know demand through to the H/Y is going to be lower and cpo prices might av in the low $500s at which Producers might be loathe to sell. After that a pick up is forecast as regional demand returns to a more normal level.
One has to say at 50-52 an awful lot of bad news is priced in but as we know poor sentiment and momentum are driving the sp since the sell off by a (Fund?).

Noone is much bothered by esoteric doctrines such as EV, Nav & ROCE in these distressing times, bad and good news are treated the same.

Virus deaths world wide are 252,407 out of 3.646m total cases (7%). The fatality rates as below.
Europe 44%
USA 27%
UK 11%
Brazil 3%