Member Info for JohnLewis79

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 2,921,513
China 82,827 +11
Total deaths 203,299
China 4632

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 960,896 (54,265)
Spain 223,759 (22,902)
Italy 195,391 (26,384)
France 161,488 (22,614)
Germany 156,513 (5877) ?
UK 148,377 (20,319)*****
Indonesia 8607 (720)
Malaysia 5742 (98)

* 813 deaths yesterday
* 2186 cases per 1m pop
* 299 deaths per 1m pop
* 640,792 total tests
* 9439 tests per 1m pop

? Germany total tests 2 072,669

Summary
Total cases 2,921,513
New cases 2109
Total deaths 203,299
New deaths 135
Recovered 837,030 (29%)

Major Companies reporting next week:

Mon:
Boeing (AGM), Bayer, China Mobile, Adidas.

Tues:
HSBC, Alphabet, Merck, Pfizer, IBM, Starbucks, 3M, BP, Ford, CAT, Southwest (Q2), Harley D, Pepsi.

Wed:
Boeing, Msoft (Q3), F/Book,
St Chartered, BOC, Tesla,
Petro China, GSK, GEC, Unilever, Volkswagen, Barcs, Spotify, Wynn Res, Deutsche Bank, AstraZ, Samsung, Master Card.

Thrs:
Apple (Q2), Amazon, Visa, Kraft H, Shell (A+B), McDonalds,Conoco P, Kellog, Twitter, Hang Seng Bank.

Fri:
Chevron, Exxon, Colgate P.
RBS, Honeywell.

KLK is reported to be buying a 60% stake in an Indonesia OP Co for RM 341.55m (c.$149m).
The stake in PWS will be funded by cash and borrowings. This gives KLK an opportunity to buy a brownfield OP estate (14,106) ha and expand its landbank. Not what MPE holders wanted to hear.

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 2,832,441
China 82,816 +12
Total deaths 197,342
China 4632

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 925,758 (52,217)
Spain 219,764 (22524)
Italy 192,994 (25,969)
France 159,828 (22,245)
Ger 154,999 (5760)
UK 143,464 (19506)****
Indonesia 8211 (689)
Malaysia 5691 (96)

* 768 deaths yesterday
* 2113 cases per 1m pop
* 287 deaths per 1m pop
* 13.6% death rate

Summary:
Total cases 2,832,441
New cases 3615
Total deaths 197,342
New deaths 243
Recovered 807,037 (28%)

After being down and drifting the afternoon crowd stepped in and bid up Dow stocks 260 to end the session at (23775).
This week has been all about the oil glut and where to stash it. WTI bounced from the -$37 to close at $17.00 (Brent $25.18) but output has yet to fall to meet what little demand there is. Squaring that circle is proving hard to achieve. The latest batch of economic data has been much as expected with continuing pressure on the manufacturing sector. Durable goods orders fell 14% in March that was the lowest in 6 years and consumer sentiment is on the floor the Michigan Index slumping 40%.

Reporting nos AMEX net Q1 income fell 76% to $367m and Ma Bell's (AT&T) CEO suddenly departed giving rise to questions was he pushed? His acquisition of Time Warner was not popular and dogged his 'presidency'. Topping the leaderboard Home Depot, Apple, Cisco, IBM & Cat up 5%,4%,3%,2% & 1%.
That bell weather 'lagger' Boeing propped up the 'losers'board, call Boeing moves right and that's your pension. Nothing yo-yo's like Boeing the fave traders cash cow.

Hospitalizations across the US are slowly falling especially in NY State and New Jersey the two virus epicentres. Some little infected Southern States are reopening for business which is easing the jobless load. Time will tell if early relaxations will cause a resurgence of the virus. At the moment its consumer pressure on State Governors to ease quarantine egged on by Orange Face.
At close:
DJ +260 (23775) / ytd -17%
SP +38 (2837) / ytd -12%
NS +140 (8635) / ytd -4%*
R2 +19 (1233) / ytd -26%
* The FAANGs, AMD & Lam Research best performers in the main.
Morning all.

Cpo closed wk17 at $637.50 and ytd averages $657 down 20% on start of year. That's a whole lot better than Brent which has tumbled c.68% & WTI c.72%.
Crude oil may well be a declining and expensive asset to lift but recent estimates say there are 15,755 days left to end of oil. Give or take thats 43 years which is plenty enough time for most investors of this and the next generation.
Luckily palm is a perennate so days to end of do not matter.
REA is scheduled to report F/Y '19 nos next week and I'm not anticipating a return to profits but would hope to see an improvement on 2018 losses of $22m.

Its 10:16 am in Zambia and today is completion date for the farm sale. No RNS yet so perhaps at close of business?
The proceeds will be going to reduce net debt of $56m at 2018 Y/E. Crazy low sp capitalising the Co at just £13m backed by shareholder funds of 66p.
Operating profit of £13m puts the trailing pe at 1x earnings, cant remember one as low as that. Debt at 23% of shareholders funds is high but manageable.

Don't make sense but not a lot does these days. You have to think a massive rerate is long overdue but the virus impacts on trade and currencies is holding everything back. Zambia has one of the lowest infection rates in Africa at just 76 and no deaths as of today. Gotta be the low surely but what's holding me back is the mrkts down on agri / retail stocks and the horrible mrkt sentiment. That needs to change before pis return to risk assets especially in far off climes.

The recent jump in WTI crude from ($-37) to $17 and Brent to $22.31 has made palm biofuel a little more attractive. Unfortunately crude is well below the $66 it was fetching in January (palm $827) and experts see little hope of crude revisiting those highs anytime soon.

The Govts of Indonesia and Malaysia are going to have to make considerable efforts to encourage motorists away from cheaper gasoil. Concessions re price per gallon will have to be made to soak up output not being exported. When it comes to petrol there is only one consideration, price!

Covid-19
4:00 am
GMT

Total cases 2,725,920
China 82,804 +6
Total deaths 191,061
China 4362

Countries 210
(Selected)
USA 886,709 (50,243)
Spain 213,024 (22,157)
Italy 189,973 (25,549)
France 158,183 (21,856)
Germany 153,129 (5575)
UK 138,078 (18,738)****
Indonesia 7775 (647)
Malaysia 5603 (95)

* 638 deaths yesterday.
* 2034 infections per 1m
* 276 deaths per 1m
* 13.6% fatality rate.

Summary:
Total cases 2,725,920
New cases 2876
Total deaths 191,067
New deaths 142
Recovered 745,905 (27%)

Volatility on Wall provided no calming effect in Asia this morning. Worries over the virus, economy and global stocks are uppermost in investors minds.
The recovery in stocks this month seems overdone the Nikkei up 2700 (16%) since returning from holiday and the Dow a whopping 4300 (23%)
on a whole slew of downbeat economic nos and Co earnings results.

Perhaps investors have called the bottom and it's a rerun of the "Go Go" years whence no'-one was much bothered about the fundamentals, more if its moving 'Borrow' & 'Buy it'. Whatever it's been a relief rally par excellence sending the bears scurrying back to their Dens.
1:00 pm JST.
TK -140
HK -80
SH -20
SK -11

Nos:- Oil $22.54. Vix 41.
Gold $1745. Palm $635.
$ 1.235. € 1.147. P1 6109. FP 6538. FF -77. DF -150. MSCI(W) 471.

Up from the bell the 30 topped 200 by 10:00 am led by Exxon & Chevron as WTI surged (25%) to $17.16.
Sentiment seems to be changing despite no signs of global infections dying out. Perhaps it's strictly a US based conception that they are over the worst. No doubt positive talk from Trump is playing better to the gallery than the downbeat UK Govt outlook where we are continually harrangued to stay in doors and save the NHS. For better or worse people connect with Trumps rhetoric to get the US V12 fired up and rolling while we tinker with the Morris Minor.

Equities started better across the board, Dow inc & Boeing followed the oils upwards and Eli Lilly a revered pharmaceutical Co founded 150 years ago posted better Q1 nos on top & bottom lines as consumers topped up their prescriptions fearing a rush to hoard, shares up $5 to $172. Other big board Co issuing nos are Pfizer, J&J, Nestle and Intel after the close. Dominos Pizza fell (4%) after profits & revs beat estimates and Hershey Co the Mom & Pop of US Chocolate Confectioners missed the nos, shares down 5%.

The Tsunami of jobless claims showed no signs of slowing, another 4m signing on (wk ending 18/4) pushed total unemployment past 26m, some 10m more than the worst forecasts which could indicate the economy has bottomed with a very small chance of a 'V' shaped recovery. It's more likely to be a 'U' type and unlikely to be the dreaded 'L' type.
Congress signed the 4th tranche of funding to small businesses this time c.$484bn was signed into law by Trump making a total Govt relief spend of $3 trillion to date. Some monies from the first tranche reached parts of the economy not seen before as the initial rush to sign up saw many doubtful claims for relief slip through the vetting process.

Just before lunch news hit the wires that Gilead Sciences antiviral drug had failed stage 1 tests in China. That smashed the Dow 400 in a matter of minutes and sent the futures into retreat. Shocked investors dumped positions and headed for the Subway. A choppy last 2 hours saw the Dow cling on to a 39 gain having been ahead over 400 in the morning on much reduced (394m) volume.
At close:
DJ +39 (23515)
SP -2 (2798)
NS -1 (8498)
R2 +13 (1214)
Morning all.

The Vietnamese Govt have lifted all restrictions so their people will be returning to a normal life.
They reported no new infections or deaths for a week. In fact only 268 cases and no deaths have occurred since the outbreak. As soon as China reported the virus they acted to close their border with China and quarantined everybody, no exceptions. Apparently this was being done in late Dec.

Wtf were we doing? Oh yea raising money to restore Big Ben's gongs and squabbling over Brexit. That has cost us big ben time! I think most of us read the 'goings on' in China & South Korea as a little local difficulty and unlikely to reach our shores. As it rapidly spread across the globe we still had our heads in the sand allowing people from far off parts of the world to enter the UK even as Italy were in lockdown.

In fact the first time I noted us taking heed of this silent killer was in Feb and by then....well, here we are talking about should we wear bloody masks or not and nearly 20,000 people have paid the ultimate price by losing their lives.

Talk of the lockdown continuing to the New Year is lunacy. What's little left of the High St will never return it will become part of our historic past. People will see sepia photos of High Streets in picture books wondering what the hell were all those people doing.
The South Circular a route to the South Coast which runs past my house has been much busier these last few days. I'd say possibly 40% of normal volume and this is being replicated throughout London. Where are all these people going?
I can see a mass exodus of people in the summer months if lockdown has not been lifted. Come July I would have been in quarantine 17 weeks. That may have saved my life I dont know but I'm willing to bet come July my chances will have hugely improved of escaping an infection.
I see no point in staying indoors and not contributing to the local economy. The Govt have got to stop preaching doom and gloom and this bloody advert...."stay at home, protect the NHS...." is beginning to grate. Does anyone seriously believe we should be quarantined for around 9 months when China was back to work in 4?

Last 10 Days covid-19 fatality rate in UK.
717
778
761
861
847
888
596
449
828
763
That averages at 749 a day with no appreciable decline in deaths. The Govt say we are passed the worst so we should see the nos improve. Spain which has the highest nos of infections and deaths has a fatality rate of 10% compared to the UK 13.5%, partly explained by their testing 20,000 per 1m pop against the UKs 8,000 per 1m pop.

Difficult to compare as Spains pop of c.47m is c.20m less than ours and they are a few weeks ahead of us on the curve and yesterday reported 435 fatalities against 763 in the UK. We have ways to go and the 100,000 tests is out the window now!

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 2,638,909
China 82,798 +10
Total deaths 184,249
China 4362

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 849,092 (47,681)
Spain 208,389 (21,717)
Italy 187,237 (25,085)
France 159,877 (21,340)
Germany 150,648 (5315)
UK 133,495 (18,100)***
Indonesia 7418 (635)
Malaysia 5532 (93)

* 763 deaths yesterday.
* 1966 tot cases per 1m.
* 267 tot cases per 1m.

Summary
Total cases 2,639,909
New cases 3193
Total deaths 184,249
New deaths 183
Recovered 722,025 (27%)

A 31% jump in afternoon trade saw WTI at $15.15 which helped equities. The Dow hit 23495 (+530) but has slipped back on profit taking with just 3 big board stocks in the red. Delta Airways was first to report a not surprising $422m Q1 loss ($831m profit) as revenues fell 20%. The company has been burning through $100m a day but has taken measures to cut spend & costs by $50m per day. Shares off 2% to $22.60. AT&T fell short of Streets Q1 estimates shares off 40c at $29.00.

At lunch the Dow was up 400 on lower av t/over of 111m and WTI bounced off sub $10 to trade at $15.15. Unfortunately this will not be enough to save hundreds of drillers from bankcruptcy. It's all about demand and nothing else irrespective of the price, oil will stay in the ground as it has nowhere else to go.
More Govt relief packages of c.$500bn pleased the mrkts split between small business, healthcare and coronavirus testing.

London had a better day up 130 (5771) helped by prices rising for the 'black stuff' and US Treasury Secretary comments that most of America will be open by the Summer. The economic wheels have to start turning so best it be sooner than later. The afternoon crowd had little appetite for stocks the Dow drifting sideways to close.
DJ +454 (23476)
SP +63 (2779)
NS +232 (8495)
R2 +16 (1202)

The rally on Wall and Oil had little impact on Far East mrkts this morning now more concerned how parts of Europe are going to react to reopening for business and can countries escape a prolonged recession.
TK +184
HK +55
SH -2
SK +19

Nos:- Oil $22.90. Vix 42.
Gold $1739. Palm $628.
$1.237. € 1.142. PI 6142.
FP 6625. MSCI(W) 469.
IDR 15557. FF u/c. DF+53.
Morning all.

Fevertree a long fave stock of pis reports today. The sp has had a good month gaining 464 to 1364 yesterday but off 1100 ytd.
A multi bagger for the early birds in the stock and one I passed on at c.£10, too expensive for my tastes which turned out to be a mistake...grrrrr!

Cpo has dropped 7% ($44) in last 7 days tracking crude oils decline and latest export nos from China. Until a turnaround is seen cpo prices have little incentive to move higher. Unfortunately many say the demand for cooking oils in the main will take much longer to revert to past vols, if ever.
However I believe in the resourcefulness of the Chinese people whereby restaurants and food stalls will be up and running in no time and expect vols to be on par by Q4. Globally it might be a different story especially the EU (anti palm brigade) and supply chains fractured. India has its problems vis a vis palm and Africa balks at higher cpo prices. The early 2020 euphoria has been well and truly dashed.

Indonesias total palm oil exports dropped 19% in the first 2 months to 4.93mt (6.13mt). Exports to China slumped 500,000t, India 188,000t and Africa 250,000t.
GAKPI reported stockpile of 4.08mt (4.54mt).

Covid-19
4:50
GMT

Total cases 2,557,725
China 82,788 +3
Total deaths 177,671
China 4632

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 819,164 (45,340)
Spain 204,178 (21,282)
Italy 183,957 (24,648)
France 158,050 (20,796)
Germany 148,453 (5086)
UK 129,044 (17,337)***
Indonesia 7135 (616)
Malaysia 5482 (92)

* 828 deaths yesterday
* 255 deaths per 1m pop
* 1901 cases per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 2,557,725
New cases 1965
Total deaths 177,671
New deaths 212
Recovered 695,254 (27%)