Member Info for JohnLewis79

REA should be reporting 2019 F/Y this morning. One usually sees above average trading in reporting week but to date only c.7000 more so no pointers there.

Unfortunately the virus has spoilt a very good start to the year as at end Feb, cpo was averaging $725.
By March it had dropped to $700 and by end April it will be c.$653. Anything less than cpo averaging $600 by H/Y, REA might struggle to turn a coin.

Asian mrkts opened strongly on back of Walls overnight rally, also boosted by a possible experimental drug to combat coronavirus proved part effective in trials run by the National Inst of Health. It had failed tests in China last week.
South Korea and HK are closed but the good news travelled across the Pan Pacific region. Australias ASX200 up 2% and benchmark indexes in Taiwan, Singapore & Jakarta up 2%.
1:00pm JST.
TK +572
HK closed
SH +37
SK closed

Covid-19
4:00 am
GMT

Total cases 3,220,338
China 82,862 +4
Total deaths 228,236
China 4633

Countries 210
(Selected)
USA 1,064,572 (61,669)
Spain 236,899 (24,275)
Italy 203,591 (27,682)
France 166,420 (24,087)
UK 165,221 (26097)*
Germany 161,539 (6467)
Indonesia 9771 (784)
Malaysia 5945 (100)

* 4419 deaths yesterday
(inc Nursing Homes)
* 2434 cases per 1m pop
* 384 deaths per 1m pop
* 818,539 total tests
* 12,058 tests per 1m pop

Summary:
Total cases 3,220,338
New cases 2154
Total deaths 228,236
New deaths 206
Recovery 1,000,355 (31%)

Q1 US GDP nos will be the centre of attraction today and will have contracted for the first time since 2014. These will only capture part (3 wks) of the coronavirus effect, a fuller picture of the economic damage will only be revealed in Q2. Whatever those results c.95% of US GDP has been flattened by the coronavirus and Trumps assertion that by Q4 it will be back to normal is ridiculed by business leaders. Peoples spending habits will have changed completely. We may fear to Spend, Spend, Spend which 70% of the US economy is based on.

Later the Fed will report on its latest monetary policies. With rates at zero and negative rates ruled out the mrkt will want to be updated on its extensive stimulus and lending measures. Following the Fed's largess to businesses its balance sheet has ballooned to $6trillion up from $4trn. News when it came was downbeat, GDP Q1 fell near 5% the largest drop since '08 a precursor of an even worse number to come in Q2 when its expected to plummet 30% or more. Sign-ons hit 26m in just 5 weeks far worse than the '08-'09 total of 9m at the time considered calamitous. Those nos take no account of the 'shadow' or 'informal' economy of c.1.6bn people too far down the income scale to receive any help from the safety net. They will be consigned to a hand to mouth existence as many of their jobs will disappear.

Investors & consumers think economists are too pessimistic and see a much quicker recovery evidenced by US mrkts on a tare up this morning, climbing nearly 500 points by 10:00am.
* Boeing which only delivered 50 planes in the quarter some 66% down saw its shares gain 4% to $137 on Q1 losses of $640m and revs down 26% to c.$17bn. Some saw a silver lining in the nos but 10,000 of the 160,000 workforce being furloughed might disagree. The bad news was good for the stock price climbing 9% to $144 and topping the risers at mid session.
*F/Bk said it has 3bn active users across its platforms but saw ad rev down though doubled earnings to c.$5bn, shares shot up $20 after hours to $215.
*Msoft reported a surprisingly strong set of Q2 nos, revs up 15% shares gained 8% ($181) on the day.
* Gilead ($83) stock up 6% boosted investor sentiment as it reached its primary endpoint showing improvement in patients taking remdisivir its coronavirus drug. The results of tests are far from definitive and it's not even licensed but such is the anticipation, mrkts surge on any vaccine news.
* Crude joined in the fun up 10% to $16 on news of a less than expected build of 9m barrels in stock.
At close:
DJ +532 (24634) 2%
SP +76 (2840) 3%
NS + (8915) 4%
R2 + 62 (1361) 5%

Nos: Oil $26.12. Vix 31.
Gold $1725. Palm $608.
$ 1.245. €1.146. PI 6323.
FP 6810. MSCI(W) 493.
IDR 15037. FF +25.
DJ +130.
Morning all.

No, navel gazing as usual rev
might as well wait for the top before buying....ffs!

FGV the largest plantation owner in Malaysia sees a significant drop in palm oil output this year. With a landbank of c.443,000 ha it's the 'big daddy' of palmers.
In 2019 FGV output of ffb climbed to 4.45mt and cpo 3.07mt. The Govt order of MCO has affected the workforce and shuttered businesses impacting production and export vols. Much depends on how quickly China replenishes its stockpile in the months ahead.

FGV expect cpo prices on the BME to trade in a narrow RM 2200- RM 2400 for most of 2020.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 3,138,886
China 82,858 +22
Total deaths 218,010
China 4633

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 1,035,765 (59,266)
Spain 232,128 (23822)
Italy 201,505 (27,359)
France 165,911 (23,660)
UK 161,145 (21,678)*
Germany 159,912 (6314)**
Indonesia 9511 (773)
Malaysia 5851 (100)

* 586 deaths yesterday
* 2374 cases per 1m pop
* 319 deaths per 1m pop
* 763,387 total tests
* 11,243 tests per 1m pop

** Ger 24,738 tests per 1m pop

Summary:-
Total cases 3,138,886
New cases 2378
Total deaths 218,010
New deaths 197
Recovered 956,057 (30%).

No economic news of substance to rattle mrkts today, just the relentless covid-19 talk and poor Q1 nos from big board companies. Consumer confidence index numbers came in as expected, there is none and oil woes have been priced in for weeks. WTI sank 21% to just $10 dragging Brent to $18 since recovered on short covering and bottom fishing to c $23. The big US Oil Fund one of the largest exchange trade funds said it would sell all June contracts over the next few days as other oil speculators have been rolling over into later dated's. BP Q1 nos were as expected a 66% loss as with all o...lies this year has been trashed from a Jan price of 505p.
The Dow started brightly enough spouting up 378 to 24512 before techs and health care stocks were clobbered. As London closed up 112 the Dow was just 30 in the black but off session low of 24031 on 189m traded.

Techs led the fallers pulling the Nsdq down 110 points. Cisco, Intel (results), Msoft & Apple all suffering while Amex, Dow inc, 3M & Exxon were riding higher. IBM raised its Q dividend for the 25th straight year to $1.63 yielding 5%. Very few are even paying a div let alone raising it, shares up 30c at 44 will please income seekers, ytd it's down just $8 but has underperformed the FAANGs by some margin. IBM has been upstaged by the likes of Msoft & Dell for years. Google Q1 nos were mixed shares down $33 ($1233) on poor advertising rev.

Sideways from lunch the Dow lost c.90 in final 30 mins on a resumption of selling in big tech. Due to report today are Boeing, F/BK, Shell & Tesla.
At close:
DJ -32 (24101)
SP -15 (2863)
NS -122 (8608)
R2 +16 (1298)

Nos: Oil $23.54. Vix 34.
Gold $1726. Palm $601.
$ 1.247. € 1.149. PI 6236.
FP 6635. MSCI(W) 482.
IDR 15400. FF +38. DF +280.

Morning all.

That's what I was doing rev....
Grrrrr!!

It's a shame there are many attractive long term
opportunities in the sector that REA will be unable to look at let alone acquire. KLK have recently bght a controlling stake in a palm business when most were hoping KLK would buy MPE having offered £740m in 2016 when profits were c.£35m. Profits and values have tumbled since then, though MPE state equity value is £600m (£11) per share some 57% more than current.

Unfortunately REA will be more concerned with staying solvent as the Co is beset by debt & events outside of their control a lethal one-two combo. From memory 2019 will be the 5th consecutive year of losses. If REA cannot turn a coin here best sell up and move on. Could be worth c $6500 - $8000 pha ( I think $10,000 p/ha is out of the picture or a low ball c.200p a share. I'd take the money and run and be rid of subsidising Bankers lifestyles. Waiting for palm ha values to increase might tax the patience of the most hardened investor(s).

The Robinows wouldn't agree with me on price and I cannot see them taking the Co private so something has to give. Will it be the Robinows giving in on price, a opportunistic bid or do 'nowt and carry on' regardless? Pretty certain its the 'carry on' option.
I'm not sure a UK palm outfit would be interested, Anglo & MPE being the only quoted ones left who may be interested. An MPE/REA merger might be a poison pill defence tactic to discourage KLK. The minnows would balk at REAs debt pile.

Plenty in Malaysia with the firepower, Sime Derby for one but oddly when crashes / corrections throw up attractive opportunities companies pull down the shutters, hoard cash and go into a financial sulk.
WB didnt get rich buying at the top of bull mrkts did he?

As part of the saga of the oil price crash Tesco have seen a 75% decline in petrol sales at their 600 filling stations. Tiny in the overall scheme but multiply that by all the UK (8385) and global filling stations c.390,000 it sure adds up.
It's all part of the decline in demand and usage as of today. Its estimated that oil will run out in c.43 years and gas in 158 years
so G has two legs still standing, one in working order the other still in plaster.
Difficult to est future cash flows, from oil until the current crisis is over and demand nos are more predictable. We know the supply side is not in question for sure in Gas so for a G investor its can you wait it out and will the stock ever get rerated? Currently reserves are worth nothing and gas even less.

The omens in oil dont look especially appealing unless prices can get back to above $40 and futures dont see that till late 2022 so the gas becomes ever more important for G holders and the company. G is sitting on a ton of the stuff and a 'hurry up' is needed. The delay has cost holders dearly since we have been talking about gas for at least the last 4 years and were little further forward. Gotta be priority no 1 and crucial to the company's survival.

Indonesia has seen export demand fall off a cliff. China volume is down 57% (381kt) and India 22% (141kt) with declines seen in Europe of 30% (188kt) and the US 64% (129kt).

The only bright spot is Bangladesh up 52% (40kt).
Cpo hit $592 low today.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 3,064,894
China 82,836 +6
Total deaths 211,609
China 4633

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 1,010,507 (56,803)
Spain 229,422 (23,521)
Italy 199,414 (26,977)
France 165,842 (23,293)
Germany 158,758 (6126)
UK 157,149 (21,092)*
Indonesia 9096 (765)
Malaysia 5820 (99)

* 360 deaths yesterday
* 2315 cases per 1m pop
* 311 deaths per 1m pop
* 719,910 total tests
* 10,605 tests per 1m pop

Summary:
Total cases 3,064,894
New cases 2380
Total deaths 211,609
New deaths 160
Recovered 922,408 (30%)

After falling 160 on opening trades the Dow has picked up 250 mid morning helped by gains in JPMC and Disney which provided a 50 point boost to the Dow as it crossed above its (23970) 50DMA.
Better global news on the virus prompted the swift turnaround despite crude slumping 27% to $12.40 and S.Korea becoming the 4th Asian Nation to run out of storage space. That's pressuring SA & Russia to agree to much bigger output cuts. Brent was off 12% to $19.30 in early dealings, last Mon it was $26. The end game is nigh a complete shut down of an industry (already started in refineries) paralysed by the virus.

News that Italy restarts manufacturing and construction from next Monday and retail outlets opening on May 18th, boosted sentiment on the Stoxx Europe 600 & US markets. Trump has been urging US Governors to reopen where feasible and even Mayor Cuomo reckons NY State has broken the back of the virus with the lowest reported one day death toll in a month (367) and said 21% of New Yorkers have antibodies to the coronavirus. US death toll rose 1388 yesterday to (56,803).

As London closed up 95 (5847) the Dow was 50 off session high with financials going up on better Deutche Bank numbers shares up (+13%). Boeing was back in the dog house with Verizon and Apple (delays on its 5G iPhone) down among the losers. Vols on the Dow at 178m were well down on average with many investors on the sidelines fearing this to be a suckers rally. Adidas reported a 96% drop in earnings and forecast a 40% drop in sales for Q2 yet the shares rose. Investors are adopting a 'look through' attitude to these virus infected Q nos. Google, Cat, Starbucks and Pepsi report today.
Some investors see Wall St divorced from Main St and current rises in equities do not sit well with 26m unemployed however short term that might be. Many think the jobless rate could go higher as the old jobs will be lost forever and the economy take longer to make up for lost ground. The S&P is only 11% (356) down ytd, remarkable considering global events.
Close:
DJ +359 (24134)
SP +42 (2878)
NS +96 (8730)
R2 +49 (1282) 4%
WTI ($11.07) -13%

Nos: Oil $19.24. Vix 33.
Gold $1713. Palm $595.
$ 1.242. € 1.147. PI 6127.
FP 6550. MSCI(W) 481.
FF +12. DF -90.
Morning all.

They say every dog has its day......but methinks this site has gone to the dogs not on quality more on quantity...and no comment on the awful usability.
Where have all the posters gone? Seems bunks, hasiba, boyo & ocelot are the only ones left with any interest. Have they all caught the virus or given up the ghost and thrown in the towel? Shame the G board was up with if not the best on lse.

H's disappearance is as mysterious as that celebrated "Affair at Styles". I guess investors give up on stocks and move on for you have to have a thick skin to be invested here.

Don't see much interest in REA ahead of numbers. There's little incentive for buyers with cpo prices headed sub $600 which is borderline for indebted palms to self finance and the ongoing virus blockage for world supply lines and fall off in trade all add to the woes. Talk is of a very slow recovery out to 2013/4 as the world re-adjusts to the new order. Palm is bound to be effected in export vol terms for food stuffs and biofuel so unless I'm hopelessly wrong palm shares look to tread water. The backdrop is cloudy to say the least, the upcoming 'Haze' season where rural farmers opt for cheap burning methods to clear land for crops which the World Bank estimated cost the country $5bn last year will no doubt re-occur this year.

Add in the virus (8882) infections mtd & expected to reach 100,000 by June (that looks too high) will nevertheless impact Govt finances further. It's very much a hunker down scenario with one eye on the crude situation for directional clues. Months ago I was pretty certain 250 was out of the question that's more like 150 now imo. A very weak hold for me.

No better in Singapore the Strait of Malacca is littered with 60 tankers waiting to offload oil and products or anchor to await new destinations and buyers. Current delay is 2 weeks to offload up from the usual 4 days. Its est that 'floating oil's is at a 4 yr high and some captains are slowing down tanker speeds hoping demand will pick up while in transit. Oil hubs worldwide are clogged up with ships seeking to discharge not only oil but other vital products. Goods to ships might have improved but thereafter its weeks of frustration and delays.

The usually balmy coast of Los Angeles is starting to resemble your local Walmart car park, as many tankers are anchored off the California coastline waiting to dump their oil, estimated at c.40mboe.
With capacity said to be weeks away from being totally full and demand non existent what price oil then? Opec++ cuts don't start till Friday and will have little impact on reducing the sea of oil.
Producers are paying 3 times to lift oil. Firstly, drill costs, secondly transport costs and thirdly storage costs. Take those out of $15 and it's back to negative prices.

The Industry will have to start making unpalatable decisions, either a massive cut in production of 20mboe plus or a complete shutdown until demand and supply are satisfied and that could be 2 yrs or more away. The global economy is just about waking up from an induced comatose state.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 2,995,152
China 82,830 +3
Total deaths 207,008
China 4633 +1

Countries 210

USA 987,322 (55,415)
Spain 226,629 (23,190)
Italy 197,675 (26644)
France 162,100 (22,856)
Germany 157,770 (5976) ?
UK 152,840 (20732)*****
Indonesia 8882 (743)
Malaysia 5780 (98)

* 413 deaths yesterday
* 2251 cases per 1m pop
* 305 deaths per 1m pop
* 669,850 total tests.
* 9867 tests per 1m pop

? 24,738 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 2,995,152
New cases 1890
Total deaths 207,008
New deaths 93
Recovered 881,510 (29%)

Falling oil prices had little impact on Asian mrkts this morning, investors preferring to follow the lead of US stocks on Friday.
US crude futures sank WTI c.8% to below $16 while Brent fell c.4% to $21. US stock futures have turned up ahead of a busy week for some of Americas best known Companies reporting Q1 & Q2 nos.

Boeing has its AGM today but report Q1 nos on Wed an odd way round...as it terminates its $4bn deal to acquire an 80% stake in Embraers commercial small jet unit. Boeing holders shouldn't be too unhappy for the valuation was very rich and a return to air travel as we knew it has gone forever due to corona v.
Seat capacity has been slashed 70% by carriers, which will lead to higher prices, fewer destinations, less food and pre flight health checks. Delta's CEO says the recovery is 3 years away.

BOJ meets today and rates are expected to remain unchanged at -0.10% with more economic stimulus on the backburner as Japanese virus infections (13,441) and deaths (372) have seen no appreciable increase. In fact China has seen just 1 new covid-19 death in a week.
2:00pm JST
TK +511
HK +391
SH +20
SK +38

Nos:- Oil $ 20.98. Vix 36.
Gold $1744. Palm $612.
$ 1.243. € 1.146. PI 6147.
IDR 15490. MSCI(W) 473.
FF +90. DF +270.
Morning all.