Member Info for JohnLewis79

Nos: Oil $29.73. Vix 28.
Gold 1704. Palm $597.
$1.232. €1.140. IDR 14963
10yrt/b 0.687%. PI 6217. FP 6300. MSCI(W) 490. FF-11. DF -168.

Declines across the region this morning despite the PBOC saying a bigger stimulus to the economy is needed as demand for Chinese goods has fallen and urban unemployment at an official 6% is nowhere near the unofficial 30%. A rise in infections in Jilin Province in the North East did not help. At 1:15 JST
TK -28
HK -440
SH -17
SK -16

To date 150 companies in the S&P 500 have suspended forward guidance due to the cloudy outlook and most of those have been in the consumer/industrial sectors, with Financials and Real Estate especially hard hit. With c.60% already reported Q1, aggregate earnings are forecast to fall c.14%-15% (5% growth expected) the worst year over year decline since Q3 in 2009.
The Dow opened to a bout of concerted selling pressure falling 260 soon after the bell led by Amex, JPMC, Disney and Boeing. Traders cited worries over a possible 'second wave' of infections as responsible for the weak start and 50:50 Asia closing indexes.

On the Co front Marriott International posted a 90% drop in net revenue as bookings and travel seized up and RevPar (rev per available room) slumped due to 25% of their global hotels being closed. Shares have tumbled 45% ytd, down 5% after Q1 nos to $82. One bright spot was AMC Entertainment Hldgs shares flying up 36% ($5.53) on reports that Amazon up $24 ($2404) might bid for the movie chain and a nice bit of cross selling to be had. At lunch the 30 had pulled back 100 of the losses thanx to Merck, Apple, Pfizer and Intel with Nsdq off just 7 points.

Tesla intends to reopen its only electric car plant in California defying the Govt. Musk will be on the assembly line. Tesla stock has soared from $430 in Jan to a high of $900 in Feb, current $811. Analysts continue to warn investors of the fragility of the mrkt as current levels on the 500 are pricing in a best case recovery scenario but until confidence returns in the real economy risk assets will be unsustainable and liable to sudden investor distrust. Current pe/r for the 500 is 23x (22% up from last yr) and a median 17x since 1977. The Nsdq on a juicier 25x earnings.
Investors are praying the Govts relief measures will offset the economic damage. The $trillions spent has been a key component of the 30% equity rally since late March and has occurred mostly to tech and pharmas outperforming and not as you would expect from cyclicals which track the ups 'n downs of the economy.

As London closed (+4) the Dow was level par for the session. Crude was off a touch ($23.81) but has forced S.Arabia to triple vat to15% and cut Cost of Living Allowances for State workers in a bid to shore up their depleting finances which have been decimated by the oil price slump from $66 in Jan. The measures will save the Kingdom $26.6bn. The Dow fell 130 late on to close in the red for the session, Nsdq up 71 but off 50 from days high. No major US companies reporting today.
At close:
DJ -109 (24222)
SP +1 (2930)
NS +71 (9192)
R2 -8 (1321)
Morning all.

Evil Knievel says it's time to climb aboard REA as at 55 its merely option money. Two Directors agree with him buying at 52.45 & 54.50 to be precise.

Two lumpy buys crossed the tape after 4:00pm. A 50,000 at 52 and 96,144 at 54 both being Director purchases by MA St Clare- George and David Blacket CEO respectively. Always good to see Directors supporting the Co with their hard earned and not freebie options. Vols were upside of 150,000 and cpo added $13 to $603.

Allright for millionaires like you rugs getting broker advice. A Peasant like moi has to do my own spade work. In fact I remember my then broker (inherited from my father) recommended me lying down in a dark place until the urge to buy Rodime wore off. Lucky I ignored him because after a few traumatic years I got out well in front from an edge of the precipice position.

Outside of Co Broker who won't be advising clients to sell REA, just about everyone else will put the boot in big time I should think. Hell on the nos whadddya expect to be told....fill yer boots? It's only brave souls who venture in this part of the world....hey heh heh!!

Looks like pis selling after reading the AR which was about as negative as they could be given the splodge of nos, some good, some bad and....keep your fingers crossed that cpo the weather and virus behave for the rest of the year numbers!

On those REA v MPE plantation nos REA yield per ha at 24.2mt is much better than MPE. OERs much the same.
Optimal conditions can produce 25mt/ha annually and yields of c.30mt/ha. However abnormally dry conditions can play havoc with the output nos and too much rain affects the % OER.

The two recent deals of oil
palm acreage were the disposal of 7800p/ha PBJ estate by REA for $11,361 p/ha and the MPE acquisition of 7062p/ha BMA estate for $11,436 p/ha.

Those $ per planted hectare valuations have obviously taken a tumble this year and i would think a reasonable assumption would be c.$8000-$9000 for EV p/ha. Be interesting to see what number Hardman apply to REA.

Spotted by rugs US deaths should read 80,787 up 750.

Covid-19
0:5.30
GMT

Total cases 4,181,077
China 82,918 +17 Wuhan 5
Total deaths 283,868
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,367,638 (283,868)
Spain 264,663 (26,621)
UK 219,183 (31,855)*
Italy 219,070 (30,560)
Russia 209,688 (1915)
France 176,970 (26,380)
Germany 171,879 (7569)
Brazil 162,699 (11,123)
Indonesia 14,032 (973)
Malaysia 6656 (108)

* 268 deaths yesterday
* 3229 cases per 1m pop
* 469 deaths per 1m pop
* 1.821m total tests
* 26,829 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 4,181,077
New cases 2923*
Total deaths 283,868
New deaths 134**
Recovered 1,493,416 (36%)

* 1562 cases Mexico
** 112 deaths Mexico

As many European countries are starting to ease restrictions and encourage people back to work, World markets are slowly improving. Not quite as rapidly as the US but heading up. However the virus has not been eradicated globally, 2768 new cases reported (17 in China and 35 in S.Korea) who have warned of the rush back to normal life could give rise to a 'second' wave of the virus. S.Korea has been one of the most successful in coping with the virus with only 5 deaths per 1m pop.

Jobless in the US has hit 25% and Brazil... the about to be new epicentre of the virus... is estimated to have c.1.5m cases above a reported 163,000 and 11,123 fatalities. The consequences are going to be horrific in overcrowded cities like Rio due to the inaction by the Govt labelling the virus as a 'few sniffles' and not implementing any lockdown strategies. Bolsonaro faces global condemnation for his jet ski antics and barbecue parties. The Brazilian people will pay the price for his stupidity.

Shanghai is opening its Disney theme park today and is well ahead of European cities in returning to normal life. China has no reported virus deaths for 10 days. The SHCOMP is the 2nd best performer this year down 5% ytd and Indonesia the worst down 26%.
At lunch
TK +303
HK +465
SH +4
SK +6
Taiex +120
India +535
ASX +82
Pan Pacifics all better.

Nos: Oil $30.68. Vix 28.
Gold $1710. Palm $595.
$1.243.€ 1.146. IDR 14910
PI 6240. MSCI(W) 490.
DF +226.
Morning all.

REA Annual Report in full is available to read. I have extracted some relevant nos comparing them to MPE which might be of interest.

REA
P/HA 36,154
Y/PH 24.2t
Crop 800,666t*
OER 23%
Cost p/t (unknown)
Rev $125m
O/Profit $18.2m
Loss $43.7m
Div nil
S/funds $252.7m (464p)
* ex 3rd party

MPE
P/HA 51,600
Y/PH 20.5t
Crop 835,400t*
OER 23.7%
C/Pt $345
Rev $119.3
O/profit $16.1m
Profit $7.5m
Div 17.75p
S/funds $367.7m (544p)
* ex 3rd party

Covid-19
04:30
GMT
Total cases 4,100,788
China 82,901 +1
Total deaths 280,432
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,347,309 (80,037)
Spain 262,783 (26,478)
Italy 218,268 (30,395)
UK 215,260 (31,587)*
Russia 198,676 (1827)
France 176,658 (26,310)
Germany 171,324 (7549)
Indonesia 13,645 (959)
Malaysia 6589 (108)

* 346 deaths yesterday
* 3171 cases per 1m pop
* 465 deaths per 1m pop
* 1.728m total tests
* 25,461 tests per 1m pop
* 14.67% death rate

New cases yesterday:
US 25,146
Russia 10,817
France 6589
UK 3896
Spain 2666
Italy 1083
Germany 736
Indonesia 533
Malaysia 54

Fatalities yesterday:
US 1421
UK 346
Spain 170
Italy 104
Russia 104
France 80
Germany 39

Summary
Total cases 4,100,788
New cases 3248*
Total deaths 280,432
New deaths 208**
Recovered 1.441,478 (35%)
* 1938 Mexico
* 729 Pakistan
** 193 Mexico
Morning all.

What does WB dumping of US Airline stocks tell us? Other than the virus has decimated values and companies outlook he realised US stocks were overvalued particularly the Airlines which were bid up in 2019 by enthusiastic investors who bought into the gorging of debt and buybacks which inflated earnings per share leading to sky high valuations. This gave the impression all was well. As the going was good, WB was buying and collecting fat dividend cheques for BH. Once buybacks were stopped and dividends cancelled he saw the writing on the wall and acted saying he saw no future in the sector.It needed a Black Bat event to scupper invstors conceptions and it duly came along doing the shorters job of 'price reality' in one fell swoop. WB has profited hugely in the past from his Washington connections (Govt g'teed bailouts) in BOA, Goldman Sachs at the time of the sub prime crisis...he kept the doors open and his rescuing of Saloman which he was asked to bail out. He screwed some very advantageous deals for BH from the regulators who sought his advice and assistance. He is sitting on c $140bn of cash because he sees no value in the market, no demand even for run down assets of which his have to be of elephantine proportions. So if he's not prepared to buy stocks at this time should we be doing so? Is Wall St sucking in gullible investors in a bear market rally? Is the real crisis yet to come?

Hope you come up with the goods!

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 4,014,503
China 82 887 +1
Total deaths 276,253
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,322,163 (78,616)
Spain 260,117 (26,299)
Italy 217,185 (30,201)
UK 211,364 (31,241)*
Russia 187,859 (1723)
Germany 170,588 (7510)
France 170,069 (26,230)
Indonesia 13,112 (943)
Malaysia 6535 (107)

* 626 deaths yesterday
* 3114 cases per 1m pop
* 460 deaths per 1m pop
* 1.632m total tests
* 24,034 tests per 1m pop
* 14.8% death rate.

Summary
Total cases 4,014,503
New cases 5212**
Total deaths 276,253
New deaths 277*
Recovered 1,387,274 (35%)

** Mexico 1906
Pakistan 1039
Brazil 1002

* Mexico 199

Futures pointed to a good day on Wall which has been on a tare up since Monday the 4th, May. With no economic data to trouble traders it was the shocking job losses that headlined all news reports.
April data showed 20.5m people had lost or were Job furloughed, around 15% of the workforce up from 4% in March. The worst rate in 100 years. While this has been self inflicted in response to the virus markets are expecting jobless nos to come down rapidly in the months ahead as the US gets back to work and business starts functioning. Hence the stock mrkt looking to positive events down the line which partly explains the Main St v Wall St dilemma or disconnect.

Boeing led the early advance as it reported it expected to have 30%-50% of its fleet flying by year end, shares up 4% ($133). Heading the leaders was Dow inc up 5% nothing to do with Mr Jones it's a chemical Co with CAT 4%, Exxon 4%, Chevron 3% and Disney gaining 3%. No laggards today.
Those short the Dow are catching a cold this month. The 30 has put on 607, the S&P 100 & techs
510, so far sell in May & go away is a bust. The star of the show is the Nsdq closing at days top (9121) on 3.5bn traded and 148 ahead ytd. Last year was mixed for the FAANGs but have come back strongly this year on FCF and ROE numbers what you want to see as an investor.

Crude spot ($24.74) gained 20% on the week on hopes of demand at least equalling supply. Its est over 1.2mboe are in storage, c.450m at sea which will have to go first on expense concerns. Goldman Sachs see demand outstrip supply by end May. Current demand is 19mbpd which could still leave 400mboe in storage by year end. Oil rig count fell to just 292 c.513 lower than last and gas to 80 from 183 such has been the carnage.
At close:
DJ +455 (24,331)
SP +49 (2930)
NS +142 (9121)
R2 + 47b(1330)
WTI $24.62
10yt/b 0.685%

Nos: Oil $30.86. Vix 28.
Gold $1705. Palm $591.
$1.240. €1.144. IDR 14917
PI 6246. FP 6293. MSCI(W) 490.

Reporting next wk
Sony (Q4)
Hitachi (Q4)
Mitsubishi (Q4)
Deutche Telekom (Q1)
Cisco (Q3)
Honda (Q4)
Vodaphone (Q4)
Marriott (Q1)
Wilmar Int (Q1)
Morning all.

Cpo closed today (wk 19) at $591 ytd $651 ($537).
****
Had a quick look at Bischi has a small issue of shares only c.11m and deal size 500 with a wide 10 spread and little trade flow. Has a low pe/r so you could be buying $ for cents and a big discount to 180+ nav.
I'm not au fait with coal as an investment. Could be one to tuck away for the medium term but tbh not one for me at my time of life. What attracted you to coal high on hate lists with the 'Demon' palm when there are any number of shares at year lows, one is spoilt for choice. If I had any spare I would buy Ideagen again a Co with a terrific track record with a Rolls Royce client list.

Beza of recent times I've done well in Easy H, Ideagen, Sportech, NBPO, Genel (in bits) & Hochschild a quick turn on a mates tip made a little but dropped a right clanger in Sphere Medical which was supposed to be my desert isle pina colada dusky maidens in clover winner to see out my few last years in comfort. Instead I was headed to Carey St....

I usually limit my holdings to no more than 5 stocks, easier to keep an eye on. Currently am down to just REA which I added to recently at 49 dropping my avc to 90ish...ouch! I only invest in stocks I understand, ideagen being an exception which paid off handsomely. So as to Bisichi Mining it's not one I'd look at but in a sector that usually performs well. ... not this year down 30% in Q1 but over last 10 years has averaged a near 7% Q return. I was tempted by Glencore in the 200s when it tumbled but obviously something put me off, a good swerve.

PS. The Directors bght several million at 145p not long ago so must be feeling aggrieved. As I always say I wouldn't give myself a tip so don't expect.....what I would say is
* invest in companies you understand.
* in trustworthy management.
* Companies with moats (cost of entry out of the question).
* is management frugal
* have they skin in the game?
* are they dedicated to improve holder value.
* a good track record of rising earnings etc...

If you can tick off most of those your half way there.
Gluck.

Morning Beza. Agreed that's always a worry but not in REAs case, I hope! I'm inclined to think whoever was selling REA was forced to satisfy redemptions rather than on the REA results which even a novice like me could see losses on the horizon months ago. However it must have cost them a pretty penny at 35 & 25! However bad they thought the results were going to be was it c.3m bad?
So I'll be generous and give them the benefit of doubt. Whatever, best they are gone and the overhang cleared.

The shareholders register needs updating for some reason it's always the last to be actioned and one of the first I look at. I'm not sure why, i suppose one is reassured if the Pru or M&G are holders though I've seen iis dump holdings at the first whiff of trouble. Let's hope the remaining iis are in it for the long term, well those above the 2.99% declarable.

We are going to have to wait till Tuesday to see if all those who want out got out on Thursday's delayed results. A total of 283,050 was traded on the wk, 143,584 traded / 13 bargains on Thursday, so I think there are more weak holders in the wings.

Asia is working and cpo is trading better current $589 up from ytd low of $572.