Member Info for JohnLewis79

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 2,183 452
China 82,692 +351
Total deaths 146,847
China 4632 +1290*
*Revised new data nos.

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 678,144 +574/34641.
Spain 184,948 (19,315)
Italy 168,941 (22,170)
France 165,027 (17,920)
Germany 137,698 (4052)
UK 103,093 (13729)*
*861 deaths yesterday.

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3956
Italy 2794
France 2528
USA 2049
Ger 1643
UK 1519
Global 280

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 413
Italy 367
France 275
UK 202
USA 105
Ger 48
Global 19

Total tests per 1m pop
Ger 20,629
Italy 19,896
Spain 19,490
USA 10,306
UK 6152
Fra 5114

Summary
Total cases 2,183,452
New cases 2144
Total deaths 146,847
New deaths 1377
Recovered 547,775 (25%)

Boeing and Chevron sp falls contributed an early 80 points drag on the DJI. Not helping were JPMC and Exxon the latter on the fall in WTI to $19.55. Another surge in jobless claims of 5m for week ending 11th, April did not surprise anyone the total now over 22m and heading towards 15% of the workforce which would be a post war high.

New Home construction starts tumbled 22% in March due to layoffs and cancellations. The Small Business Funding Program sold out of its $349bn threshold as c.1.6m applications were approved. Some companies continue to outperform, Amazon hit a record intraday high of $2449 currently up $86 at $2394 and Netflix jumping $12 to $439 up 36% ytd. Others on the leaderboard were UHC, Intel, Msoft & Nike. Boeing as 'per' propped up the losers with an 8% fall. The 10yr t/bill yields 0.6% so with inflation expected to hit 2.7% in 2020 that's a losing proposition for investors.

The Dow had a very volatile day trading in a 500 point range, an initial sell off took the index to a 23200 low at 10:00 am only to recover all losses by mid'day then plunge again to a new low by 12:30. Late on in the session the DJI was just 70 lower but ended in a burst of buying on Trump saying many States will reopen for business shortly. News of progress towards a vaccine helped confirm the change in sentiment. US futures ticking up all day surging over 800 points at session close.
DJ +33 (23538)
SP +16 (2860)
NS +139 (8532)
R2 -6 (1178)

The overnight rally on the Street propelled Asia up at open this morning. Chinas economy contracted 6.8% in Q1, better than the double digit forecasts of some analysts. It was the worst performance since the early 1970s. The big question is how fast can their economy bounce back? Late on mrkt nos......
TK +487
HK +554
SH +25
SK +55

Nos:- Oil $28.39. Vix 40.
Gold $1718. Palm $670.
$1.250. €1.149. PI 6349.
FP 6565. MSCI(W) 468.
FF+146. DF +830.
Morning all.

Last year MPE bought back 266,652 shares for cancellation a practice much approved by WB if certain rules are followed as it's always better for a seller to have an extra buyer in the market.

Shares should only be bought back if a) are below intrinsic value b) are not needed to expand operations and c) if an opportunity offers greater value than do the undervalued shares.
In MPEs case the stock repurchased cost shareholders £1.83m at an ave cost of 690, current sp 575. While the sp has dropped showing a loss of £386,000 on the re-buys the outstanding has come down to c.54.4m issued. Over time this should be earnings enhancing for holders. If not it's been an expensive act of commission by the Board.

Covid-19
04:45
GMT

Total cases 2,083,607
China 82,342 +46
Total deaths 134,632
China 3342

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 644,089 (28,529)
Spain 180,659 (18,812)
Italy 165,155 (21,645)
France 147,863 (17,167)
Germany 134,753 (3804)
UK 98,476 (12868)*
Indonesia 5136 (469)
Malaysia 5072 (83)
*761 fatalities yesterday.

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3864
Italy 2732
France 2265
USA 1946
Ger 1608
UK 1451
Global 267

Total tests per 1m pop
Germany 20,629
Italy 18,481
Spain 13,918
USA 9845
UK 5876
France 5114

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 402
Italy 358
France 263
UK 90
USA 86
Ger 45
Global 17

Summary:
Total cases 2,083,607
New cases 1235
Total deaths 134,632
New deaths 72
Recovered 510,666 (24%)

Not much change for your buck in Asia this morning stocks drifting through lack of interest and worries that some countries are reopening for business prematurely as new global infections and deaths increased yesterday.
Q1 nos have been consigned to history so the full impact of covid-19 will be apparent next Q.
At 2:00pm
TK -289
HK -189
SH -5
SK -7
All of the above mrkts are out of ytd bear territory.
TK -18%
HK -15%
SH -8%
SK -15%

Well it was a blue session yesterday so 'snatch-back' day today, the Dow off c.810 earlier traded down 540 as London closed well into the red.
US economic data from retail and manufacturing output tanked in March. Every corner of the economy is reporting dreadful nos such has been the severity and fall'- out from covid-19. The economy has lost its primary engine of growth these last few months....the Consumer.

Manufacturing output fell 6% in March the highest one month drop since 1946. Retail sales dropped 9% as stay at home citizens hoarded cash. Sales are in freefall across the sector (excepting food).
* Gocery stores, up 27%
* on line up 3%
* petrol down 17%
* Dept stores down 20%
* Sports goods down 23%
* Rest/Bars down 26%
* Clothing down 50%
Best Buy has furloughed 51,000 hourly paid store employees yet Amazon go from strength to strength, hiring many thousands and investors love the Co as its shares hit record highs and turns over its stock at pace. Amazon stock ($2307) is up 23% ytd, Best Buy down 27% ytd.

Crude fell below $20 an 18 yr low after a record build up of 19m boe, 8m more than anticipated. The world is awash in oil with nowhere to store it as storage capacity is near exhausted. Demand is set for the largest annual decline in history and this year will see it dropping by c.9.34m b/day. WTI closed at $20.26 a barrel. Exxon is c.44% down ytd, Chevron 33%.

Investors holding Bank stocks already down 30% this year are facing the grim reality of cash strapped companies and customers. Goldman Sachs nos were slightly better than expected but eps dropped from $5.71 to $3.11, shares little changed at $179 and BOA fell 6% to $22.40 setting aside $4.76bn in credit losses as Q1 profits slumped 50%. Wells Fargo and JPMC have set aside $bns in provisions.
The afternoon crowd arrived in time to pick up $ bills scattered like confetti on the Exchange Floor pushing the indices off session low (23233) but lost ground in the last hour to profit taking to close out at 23504 on 442m traded some 50m down on daily average.
At close:
DJ -445 (23504)
SP -63 (2783)
NS -123 (8393)
R2 -53 (1184)

Nos: Oil $28.17. Vix 41.2
Gold $1743. Palm $673.
$ 1.247. € 1.147. PI 6265.
FP 6444. MSCI(W) 467.
FF -11. DF -115.
Morning all.

Late reported trade of a 25,000 sell @ 95 yesterday yet to appear here.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 2,000,065
China 82,295 +46
Total deaths 126,754
China 3342

Countries 210

USA 614,246 (26,064)
Spain 174,060 (18,255)
Italy 162,488 (21,067)
France 143,303 (15,729)
Germany 132,210 (3495)
UK 93,873 (12,107)*
Malaysia 4987 (82)
Indonesia 4839 (459)
*778 deaths yesterday.

Total tests per 1m pop
Italy 17,758
Germany 15,730
Spain 12,833
USA 9637
UK 5637
France 5114

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3723
Italy 2687
France 2195
USA 1856
Germany 1578
UK 1383
Global 257
Malaysia 154
Indonesia 18

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 390
Italy 348
France 241
UK 178
USA 79
Ger 42
Global 16

Summary:
Total cases 2,000,065
New cases 2205
Total deaths 126,754
New deaths 155
Recovered 484,597 (24%)

Overnight US mrkts were boosted by techs with Amazon hitting a record high on an on line sales boost but fell after hours to $2270 on profit taking. Ytd the stock has gained c.20%. Other techs were among the leaders, Msoft, Apple both 5% better with Intel, Cisco gaining 3% & 4%. Boeing propped up the laggards falling $6 (4%) to $141. No middle ground for Boeing either top or bottom it's become investors favourite daily play.
Mrkts were also buoyed by news that c.12 US States are planning to reopen for business as the worst of covid-19 may have passed. The Dow, Nsdq & SP have exited 'bear territory' the 500 up 27% from March low is ytd off 12%.

After hours the US Treasury agreed to provide billions of $ to US airlines to fund carriers whose revenues have vanished due to the virus lockdown mandated by the Govt. Delta gained 6%, American 3% and Southwest 1%.
Looking ahead, today sees some heavyweight stocks reporting, BOA, CITI, GS & UNITED HEALTH. Also March retail sales data which is forecast to fall near 10% will keep investors busy.
At close:
DJ +559 (23950) 2%
SP +84 (2846) 3%
NS +323 (8516) 4%
R2 +25 (1237) 2%

Very quiet in the Far East following yesterdays China trade data which came in better than thought. Among a raft of nos exports to the US fell 21% and imports off 13%. Chinas trade surplus with the US is c.$15bn which accounts for 75% of its global trade surplus. Trump's trade tariffs were in part designed to redress this imbalance, regardless investors are braced for more bad econovid-19 news in the weeks ahead. Much of companies Q1 nos are 'priced in.'
Towards close TK +15, HK 22 lower, SH off 4 and SK gaining 31.

Nos:- Oil $29.96. Vix 38.
Gold $1755. Palm $675.
$1.260. €1.148. PI 6298.
FP 6765. MSCI(W) 478.
FF u/c. DF -40.
Morning all.

Ask yourself do you honestly think anyone is going to pay 475 for REA based on NAV? On the face of it a 377p margin of safety looks an absolute steal.
I have never taken into account NAV afterall that number is very much in the eye of the seller! I often wonder how many companies are sold at NAV or near to? I reckon precious few as valuations are more likely to be on a price to sales, an earnings multiple, Enterprise value or planted HA valuation, making the headline NAV nos redundant.

For what its worth REA EV is c.£250m and the planted ha number of c.36,700 ha (a mix of mature and immature) at say $9000 p/ha would give REA a value of £264m say 600pps. (MPE paid $9500 p/ha recently to acquire a subsidiary) which gives one an even larger margin of safety.

You have to ask yourself given REAs various debt obligations would $9000 p/ha be attainable, on a discounted earnings view over say 10 years subtracting all debt? I cannot do those nos accurately enough especially selecting the key component the discount rate and cost of capital to make a sensible guess.
I suspect a lot less than 600p per/ha which might be why the sp lags the industry av ha value. The question is why such a huge discount? Even at a low $5000 p/ha REA would be valued at 333p. Currently bofp calc REA
p/ha value is c.$1270 or £105 assigning just c.24p per/ha.

Wonder where else you could get value like that? MPE p/ha of 39,400 is worth at $9500 per p/ha £300m or 554pps almost bang on current sp. In effect 23x more valuable than REA. Now that doesn't make sense to me. I must be missing something....

Covid-19
04:45
GMT

Total cases 1,925,224
China 82,249 +89
Total deaths 119,702
China 3341

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 587,155 +214 (23644)
Spain 170,099 (17,756)
Italy 159,516 (20,465)
France 136,779 (14,967)
Germany 130,072 (3194)
UK 88621 (11,329)*
Malaysia 4817 (77)
Indonesia 4557 (399)

* Increase of 1454 deaths and 9630 infections since yesterday.

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3638
Italy 2638
France 2095
USA 1774
Ger 1552
UK 1305
Global 247

Total deaths per 1m pop.
Spain 380
Italy 338
France 229
UK 167
USA 71
Ger 38
Global 15

% death rate
UK 13%
Italy 13%
France 11%
Spain 10%
Global 6%
USA 4%

Summary
Total cases 1,925,224
New cases 1376
Total deaths 119,702
New deaths 84
Recovered 447,948 (23%)

The Dow hit a session low of 23095 (-624) following the Easter break but stopped the rot as oils respond to the 10m bopd cuts which Trump tweeted could be more substantial of the order of 20m bopd than the reported number. WTI eked out a 30c gain at $22.71.

Red was the colour in Asia but had no effect on US mrkts which have been responding to the plateau effect of infections but the hoped for V shaped recovery is out of the question now as millions more will be 'signing on' in the coming weeks swelling the jobless numbers. Still no indication from Trump as to when States will be allowed to lift 'stay at home' restrictions.
Yesterdays fatalities increased by 1830 and infections by 30,053 at those rates it seems foolhardy to talk of returning to work sometime in May.

At 2.00pm the Dow had pared losses to 450 with fallers outpacing risers by 3:1, led down by Boeing, Amex, Cat, Coca Cola and JPMC. Topping the risers was Chevron, Walmart, Intel and Apple. Vol on the NYSE at c.461m shares was double the daily average. There was no economic news of note to test the mrkt yesterday. A 6% rise by Amazon to ($2168) a near record high as the Co announced it was hiring another 75,000 workers to cope with demand saw the Nsdq end up 38 (8192) at close.
DJ -328 (23,391)
SP -28 (2762)
NS + 38 (8192)
R2 -35 (1212)

All blue in the Far East led up by TK gaining 2% as investors wait China trade data for March (Exports were down 17% in Feb).
At 2.00pm
TK +540 (3%)
HK +158
SH + 20
SK + 38

Nos:- Oil $32.20. Vix 41.
Gold $1776. Palm $663.
$ 1.256 € 1.148. PI 6232.
MSCI(W) 466. FF +97.
DF +415.
Morning all.

Is palm oil Vegan? The simple answer is yes as in it's raw form it's a vegetable. However Vegans argue it is not as it destroys animal habitats.
Now that's logic from the Greenpeace Book of Demon oil facts & figures.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 1,853,435
China 82,160
Total deaths 114,253
China 3341

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 560,433 +133 (22115)
Spain 166,831 (17,209)
Italy 156,363 (19,899)
France 132,591(14,393)
Germany 127,854 (3022)
UK 84,279 (10,612)*
SK 10,537 +25 (217)
Malaysia 4683 (76)
Mexico 4661 +442 (296)
Indonesia 4241 (373)
* 737 deaths yesterday

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3568
Italy 2586
France 2031
USA 1693
Ger 1526
UK 1241
Global 238
SK 206
Malaysia 145
Mexico 36
Indonesia 16

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 368
Italy 329
France 221
UK 156
USA 67
Ger 36
Global 15
SK 4
Mexico 2
Malaysia 2
Indonesia 1

Summary
Total cases 1,853,435
New cases 1178
Total deaths 114,253
New deaths 59
Recovered 423,721 (23%)

Oil production cuts have done little for oil prices and Asian equities. OPEC+ have agreed a cut of c10m bopd which might put a tentative $30 floor under prices but fell well short of the hoped for 20m bopd demand shock cut needed to re-balance the mrkt. Initial reaction was a 5% hike in WTI to $24 & 4% in Brent at $32.88 mainly as demand is seen as muted until at least Q4 when the stockpiles should have been cleared. The US 'driving' season has been kiboshed by the stay at home policies of the Govt which will be a huge drag on gas consumption.

Far Eastern mrkts are very quiet HK is still closed. TK down 2% (360), SH down 9 & SK losing 21, await the US opening and a flood of Q1 earnings results which are expected to be uniformly bad perhaps as much as 10%- 20% lower. The 'Street' has just come off it's best week since the early 70s (+2667) so may have 'looked-through' Q1's virus nos as a freak of Nature, unrepresentative of normal trading patterns.
However bad those nos are, Q2 will reveal the full impact of coronavirus if by June the US are still in semi-lockdown mode.
The big one today is Delta Airlines ($24) trading at only 3x earnings has seen its stock price slump near 60% ytd and trades at a large discount to the Streets P/e of 14x. One for the contrarians if you believe the US economy will come roaring back in Q4.

PM session
TK -360
HK closed
SH -10
SK -18

Nos: Oil $32.88. Vix 42.
Gold $1732. Palm $665.
$ 1.247. € 1.140. PI 6203.
FP 6664. MSCI(W) 470. DF -400.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 1,780,440
China 82,052 +99
Total deaths 108,834
China 3339

Countries 210
(Selected)
USA 532,879 (20,577)
Spain 163,027 (16,606)
Italy 152,271 (19,468)
France 129,654 (13,832)
Germany 125,452 (2871)
UK 78,991 (9875)*
Malaysia 4530 (73)
Indonesia 3842 (327)
*UK deaths yesterday 917

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3487
Italy 2518
France 1986
USA 1610
Ger 1497
UK 1164
Global 228
Malaysia 140
Indonesia 14

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 355
Italy 322
France 212
UK 145
USA 62
Ger 34
Global 14
Malaysia 2
Indonesia 1

Summary:
Total cases 1,780,440
New cases 697
Total deaths 108,834
New deaths 55
Recovered 404,393 (23%)

Currently Cpo actual average price from 2014 & projected to 2020) is $682. So currently bang on as our ytd av is $685. That's encouraging for the bulls if we are coming to the end of cpo declining prices and that's a big if....

.......The bears will see it as a 'big if' but as anyone will tell you no'-one has a crystal ball or an Old Moores Almanac to forewarn of future moves as the market is the sum of all investors hopes, fears and is often unreasonable and illogical. The market does not conform to what happened 10 years ago anymore than 10 mins ago so chasers of stats & squiggly lines will come undone if wholly reliant on those stratagems.

Still you have to take a position if your investing in equities be it as a trader or follow WB the patron saint of longterm value investment. Show me a trader who has posted annualised returns of 20.5% for as long as WB (1965-2020) of course you can't most are burnt out by then. That should tell you something! From $105,000 starting capital he built BH into a colossus valued at $471bn based on easy to understand methodologies one of which is buy shares in companies you understand and look for hidden value. For sure he's a hell of a 'stock picker' which helps as his winners easily compensate for the odd changer. As he often says "I sleep well knowing that 2 billion men wake up every morning needing a shave."(He holds Gillette).

Could the same be said of REA, given its wide usage? Do you sleep well at night knowing most people will wake up and use a bar of soap to wash first thing? Perhaps not but is the hidden value not being recognized? So just because REA trades at 98 that doesn't mean the business is worth 98. It could be 58 or 138 we alone must decide whether the offered price is a fair one. If not worry not, Mr Market will be back with a new one tomorrow. I rebought at c.90 near enough ytd low so think the price was a fair one oversold on virus worries mostly and I think I understand the business which in my case is probably a mistake!
Morning all.

I think Finn Caps projections for MPE revs & profits for 2021/2 are extremely optimistic as you'd expect of a Co Broker. Take with a pinch of salt especially the 1000 sp! They were one of the most bullish promoters of my blood thing that collapsed into penury and couldn't find a buyer for a lousy £ note. They were very well paid for their unbridled enthusiasm.

As always Brokers are front runners and do not want to disappoint their paymaster with negative comments on prospects. Given my previous post on the outlook for palm consumption.... unless they know something Industry professionals are unaware of they might come to regret so bullish a point of view. I'm not invested in MPE no doubt it's an excellent Co with good management but as with others has had a dismal 15 weeks ytd dropping 127 (18%) better than other Palmers for sure but is the outlook that bright to warrant such optimism? Outside of KLK making an opportunistic bid I'd say not.

M&A activity seems to have dried up in commodity businesses which is par for the course as most would rather pay a high price for something rather than a fair price or to put it another way a company is a better buy when the sp is rising, so safer to join the crowd than to buy a declining undervalued stock experiencing temporary trouble. A fear of omission if you will!
My view on palm stocks is that your unlikely to overpay atm as in this sector volumes are tiny, few fund managers are interested in the 'demon palm', so the probability is that sp's are mispriced from time to time having fallen out of favour as the bandwagon of investors hopes has already left town.

Our job as Palm investors is to weigh up whether the mrkt has made an incorrect judgement on palm stocks and has over reacted to covid-19, selling $ for cents. If you believe so the choice is easy. If your like me I fear they have it right and is a 'hold' at best which I'm doing.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/mp-evans-ready-for-a-big-leap-forward/

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/mp-evans-ready-for-a-big-leap-forward/