Member Info for JohnLewis79

Palm Oil prices to be hammered says leading Industry analyst Fry due to ever increasing headwinds as below:-

* Global lockdown
* Consumption curbed
* Stockpiles increasing
* China lost 1 month of demand
* Eating out falls sharply
* Old habits might never recover
* Homes using less oil
* Cut back in wages
* Consumer spending hit
* Export vols slump
* Biofuel only bright spot
* If price parity with gasoil.
* Weak output 2020
* Potential labour shortages.

Not very positive for the sector but it's just one persons opinion who to be fair is an acknowledged 'guru' of the sector. So far Indonesia has escaped the worst of infections seen in China and Western countries which is remarkable. So is sub $500 palm oil on the way as the industry adjusts to the new world order? Latest YTD prices for:
Brent -51%
WTI -62%
Cpo -19%

To reach parity with Brent cpo would have to trade at c.$400 that's 38% lower from current price and there's not a plantation on earth that can be profitable at that price. If you know one ring me. Back in January Cpo was
trading c.12x the Brent price. However now 20x higher. Not sure if the long term diff is of that number but it does suggest palm has further to fall or crude to rally to a more realistic $40+ price if the 10m bopd cut in output is enacted. Trump needs oil back in the $60s as most highly leveraged Shalers are broke or shut down at WT1 $23.

Palm prices will be guided by crude so it will be on Monday the mrkt will give its verdict on the output cuts. Higher or lower it's a 50:50 call.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 1,699,635
China 81,953 +46
Total deaths 102,739
China 3339 +3

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 502,876 (18,747)
Spain 158,273 (16,081)
Italy 147,577 (18,849)
France 124,869 (13,197)
Ger 122,171 (2736)
UK 73,758 (8958)*
Malaysia 4346 (70)
Indonesia 3512 (306)
* 980 deaths yesterday

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3385
Italy 2444
France 1913
USA 1519
Ger 1458
UK 1086
Global 218
SK 204
Malaysia 134
Indonesia 13

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 344
Italy 312
France 202
UK 132
USA 57
Ger 33
Global 13
SK 4
Malaysia 2
Indonesia 1

Death rate %
Mexico 16%
Italy 13%
UK 12%
France 11%
Spain 10%
Global 6%
USA 4%
Ger 2%
SK 2%

Summary:
Total cases 1,699,635
New cases 934
Total deaths 102,739
New deaths 55
Recovered 376,339 (22%)
Morning all

Ytd (wk 15) Cpo slipped to averaging $684.74 a $11 drop from wk 14. Shares of palm companies ended the week as below but only you will know if the prices are correct.
Anglo 468
Dkl 2.25
Epa 0.375
Mpe 565
Rea 98.50
Ytd sp's +/- for the above are little changed from last week. The KLPI index gained 144 (2%) and the UK Food Products Sector put on 677 (11%) on a shortened week. UK mrkts are closed on Monday but NY will be back in action.

A total of (881) deaths were recorded in the UK yesterday, down from (938) the day before which was the highest daily fatality number to date and hopefully the peak.
Thats a total 7978 fatalities since the initial 578 reported on 28/3, two weeks ago today.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 1,605,277
China 81,907 +42
Total deaths 95,751
China 3336 +2

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 468,895 +329 (16697)
Spain 153,222 (15,447)
Italy 143,626 (18,279)
Ger 118,235 (2,607)
France 117,749 (12,210)
UK 65,077 (7978)
Malaysia 4228 (67)
Indonesia 3293 (280)

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3277
Italy 2375
France 1804
USA 1417
Ger 1411
UK 959
Global 206
Malaysia 131
Indonesia 12

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 302
Italy 302
France 187
UK 118
USA 50
Ger 31
Global 12
Malaysia 2
Indonesia 1

Summary
Total cases 1,605,277
New cases 1625
Total deaths 95,751
New deaths 59
Recovered 356,925 (22%)

US stocks had one of it's best ever weeks following the Feds $2.3 trillion injection into the wider economy. The extra 6.6m jobless claims were discounted as the nos had been well trailed and mrkts are seeing some light down the virus tunnel. Crude slipped back 9% ($23.47) on the 10mbopd output cut for the next 2 months as not being enough to balance supply & demand. WTI fell 6% over the week and ytd 62%. The 10yr t/bill yields 0.74%.

The Dow was up 567 (24000) before oils tumbled on insufficient output cuts trimming session gains to 286. However on the week added 2381 (11%) the 500 (12%) Techs (10%) and the star of the week the Small Caps (16%). The R2 sector has fallen near 40% from high in Feb compared to the 21% on the 500. That % difference is unusual in that during past corrections and bear mrkts/ the falls have usually been far less when compared to the Big Cap stocks. Statistically it will take the small caps c.2.5yrs to recover 'bear' losses so sometime in August 2022 if true to form.
Next week will see some Dow 30 companies reporting Q1 nos which will not be fully inclusive of the virus damage which only really started to shatter mrkts in late Feb. Expected to report JPMC, BOA, WELLS FARGO, J&J
UNITED HEALTH, CITI & GOLDMAN.
At close:
DJ +286 (23719)
SP +40 (2790)
NS +63 (8154)
R2 +55 (1247) 5%

Ytd:
DJ -17%
SP -14%
NS -9%
R2 -25%
MSCI(W) -17%

Morning all.

Have had a good bounce off recent £58 lows to £71.95 on 26,836 traded at 12:00 am.

Covid-19
5:30
GMT

Total cases 1,518 927
China 81,865 +63
Total deaths 88,516
China 3335 +2

Countries 209
(Selected)

USA 435,128 +201 (14795)
Spain 148,220 (14792)
Italy 139,422 (17,669)
Ger 113,296 (2349)
France 112,950 (10,869)
UK 60,733 (7097*)
SK 10423 +39 (204)
Malaysia 4119 (65)
Indonesia 2925 (240)
* UK (6159) yesterday.

Tot cases per 1m pop.
Spain 3170
Italy 2306
France 1730
Ger 1352
USA 1315
UK 895
SK 203
Global 195
Malaysia 127
Indonesia 11

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 316
Italy 292
France 167
UK 105
USA 45
Ger 28
Global 11
SK 4
Malaysia 2
Indonesia 1

Summary
Total cases 1,518,927
New cases 967
Total deaths 88,516
New deaths 61*
Recovered 330,697 (22%)
* 33 in Mexico.

Small caps led US mrkts higher overnight putting on 52 (1192) up 5% which led the Dow 780 better for a c.2350 points (10%) 3 day rise. The 500 and techs rose 3% to end a bullish session despite NY State reporting its largest one day death rate to date of 779 which Gov Cuomo said " the bad news isn't bad, it's terrible." However new infections are declining in global epicentres as the curve begins to flatten and fall. Investors hope global mrkts will reopen quicker than expected.

Elsewhere Investors will be looking for companies pre announcing 2Q nos which should provide mrkts with some visibility as to the impact of the virus. An early casualty, Starbucks reported a 47% drop in 2Q earnings, suspended buy backs but maintained the dividend saying they expect the nos to be poor through to Q4.

Policy makers continue to provide further stimulus to the economy. A $250bn package to small businesses and $150bn to State & Local Governments should be passed on Thursday, when new jobless claims are expected to add 5m to the dole queue. On the mrkt Rayethon led the risers up 8% followed by Exxon, Chevron, Dow inc, GS & Amex all 6% better. Crude gained 81c to $25.94. US exchanges will be closed on Good Friday but reopen on Easter Monday.
At close:
DJ +780 (23433) 3%
SP +91 (2750) 3%
NS +204 (8091) 3%
R2 +52 (1192) 5%

Nos:- Oil $33.33. Vix 43.
Gold $1684. Palm $663.
$1.240. €1.141. PI 622O
FP 6581. MSCI(W) 462.
FF +43. DF -60.

Little change in Asia investors still on the sidelines with vols at the lower end of average. China, Japan & SK reported 102 new cases and just 6 fatalities though World new infections and deaths are considerably lower than yesterday.
Late afternoon
TK -60
HK +190
SH +8
SK +21.
Morning all.

Hasiba is quite right in that the mrkt discounts into the future, the reliable method of calculating a cos disc earnings and growth rates. Here's a method I use in discounting a cos yearly earnings over 5 years. I'll keep the nos rounded and simple.

Year 1 income £10,000
Discount rate 15%
Discount val £8696
(£10,000÷1.15)

Year 2 income £10,000
÷ (1.15)²
Discount val £7561

Year 3 income £10,000
÷ (1.15)³
Discount value £6575

Year 4 income £10,000
÷ (1.15)4
Discount value £5718

Year 5 income £10,000
÷ (1.15)5
Discount value £4972

Sum £50,000
Disc value sum £33,522

As you can see after 5 years £10,000 in profits is worth only £4972 and generated £33,522 in discounted profits for holders. That's essentially the intrinsic value and what a holder could expect. Of course choose your discount rate 5%,10% etc,...the yearly operating life, 5,10,15 or 20 years.
One point to bear in mind forecasting too many years into the future makes a Co increasingly valuable.....on paper.
If you have to discount earnings, decades into the future that's a whole diff ball game and as most of us wont go beyond 5 years not worth bothering about.
Hope this helps as many pis go all blank when discounting future earnings is talked about.

Morning rugs, wish we could have stayed there and skipped March!

Agricultural commodities have been fairly stable throughout the 2020 virus scourge. Palm has been one of the worst hit c.19% down ytd. As coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on economies which have been on virtual standstill since Jan there have been side benefits for our planet.
Los Angeles has become near smogless, emissions are down 50%, drops in air pollution, lower capex in the Mining & Timber industries will alleviate pressure on forests as the price of timber has collapsed by 50% and construction companies cancel building projects etc... Reduced demand for timber, veg oils and beef all benefit our planet in terms of deforestation.

What's really worrisome, is will the virus push the US economy into a 1929 depression pulling down global mrkts in its wake?
Too early to tell for just a few weeks back mrkts were at all time highs with nary a black cloud in the skies. I am of the opinion that if your going to panic, do so early so the sudden onset of coronavirus can be dealt with quickly enabling a faster recovery.

Such a 1929 collapse would leave societies on the breadline and global trade wrecked. Govts have thrown money at the problem using every available tool to prop up jobs and businesses. With no vaccine in sight stopping the rise in infections must be confronted above all if we are to survive and recover from this disease. It took China approx 4 months to return to near normal, here in the West that means around June we should be seeing the benefits of isolation and the breaking of the virus.

Will have gathered that the sp at the top does not belong here. REA closed at 98 on 28,500 traded.
The UK death rate rose 786 yesterday. Assuming these are hospital nos only. The ONS have said the true figure from all sources could be double the WHO numbers.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 1,431,973
China 81,802 +62
Total deaths 82,096
China 3333 +2

Countries 209
(Selected)

USA 400,540 +205 (12857)
Spain 141,942 (14,045)
Italy 135,586 (17,127)
France 109,069 (10,328)
UK 55,242 (6159)
Malaysia 3693 (63)
Indonesia 2738 (221)

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 3036
Italy 2243
France 1671
USA 2210
UK 814
Global 184
Mal 122
Indo 10

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 300
Italy 288
France 158
UK 91
USA 39
Global 10
Mal 2

Summary
Total cases 1,431,973
New cases 1054
Total deaths 82,096
New deaths 62
Recovered 302,209 (21%)

The rally in equities and commodities continued today as US mrkts bouyed by a glimmer of light on infections gained from the bell. Mrkts are betting the tide is turning in the fight against covid-19 and investors dont want to be out of the market. T/bill yields rose along with crude now well above $18 low ytd. As London closed the Dow was up over 600 points, 1000 earlier in the session pushed up by Dow inc, Chevron & Amex leading the Big Board risers. Exxon are cutting capex by $30bn shares rose $3 to $43 on the news.
Reports that some countries in Europe are considering relaxing the quarantine rules and re-opening some businesses was seen as a positive sign if a bit premature. Trump is considering doing the same in States little effected by the virus as its paramount that business gets back to work.

Nevertheless the reporting season is going to throw up some shockers with Brokers estimating a 40% hit to Q2 US GDP and the unemployment rate as high as 16%. For the F/Y GDP could be down as much as 5-6%. How much of this is priced in is unknown but as ever unforeseen events surrounding the virus is a drawback to a fully fledged rally in prices and indices. No'-one is predicting a return to the 10yr bull stampede. At mid'day stocks were hit by profit taking and all the gains were erased by close.

The period March to April has been extraordinary nothing has been seen like it before in terms of volatility and points lost/gained. Here's a few examples of yearly mrkt moves in points versus those of the last 27 sessions.
2015/6 (2337)
2016/7 (5075)
2017/8 (1392)
Mar/Apr (4049)
At close
DJ -26 (22654)
SP -4 (2659)
NS -26 (7887)
R2 u/c (1139)

Little movement in Asia the sell off in NY has left traders on the sidelines very much in limbo land fearing another breakout of infections as Wuhan is reopened for business and travel.
TK +208
HK -240
SH -9
SK +2

Nos:- Oil $32.68. Vix 47.
Gold $ 1685. Palm $658.
$1.232. € 1.134. PI 6207.
FP 6503. MSCI(W) 453.
FF -40. DF +64.
Morning all.

Covid-19
UK

28/3 11,658 (578)
29/3 14,543 (759)
30/3 19,522 (1228)
31/3 22 141 (1408)
1/4 25,150 (1789)
2/4 29,474 (2352)
3/4 33,718 (2921)
4/4 38,168 (3605)
5/4 41,903 (4313)
6/4 47,806 (4934)
7/4 51,608 (5373)

Rate since 28/3
Infections 40,040 (346%)
Fatalities 4795 (830%)

Daily increase deaths nos rate since 28/3 to 7/4
181
469
180
381
563
569
684
708
621

Covid-19
5:30
GMT

Total cases 1,347,343
China 81,740 +32
Total deaths 74,769
China 3331

Countries 209
(Selected)

USA 367,629 +625 (10941)
Spain 136,675 (13,341)
Italy 132,547 (16,523)
Ger 103,375 (1810)
France 98,010 (8911)
UK 51,608 (5373)
Malaysia 3793 (62)
Indonesia 2491 (209)

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 2923
Italy 2192
France 1502
Ger 1234
USA 1111
UK 760
Global 173
Malaysia 117
Indonesia 9

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 285
Italy 273
France 137
UK 79
USA 33
Ger 22
Global 10

Summary:-
Total cases 1,347,343
New cases 1339
Total deaths 74,769
New deaths 115
Recovered 284,882 (21%)

Nothing as dramatic in Asia this morning. The markets are subdued with Investors stuck on the sidelines keeping their powder dry. Even greed is not enticing buyers back in. The Nikkei is up 12% from virus lows versus the DJI 20%.
Today China reported no deaths and just 32 infections of people returning from abroad. Soon mrkts will have to contend with some horrible economic numbers baring in mind that Europe and the US are not out of the woods yet.
Late pm:
TK +188
HK +127
SH +49
SK +20

Nos: Oil $34.00. Vix 45.
Gold $1714. Palm $646.
$ 1.228. € 1.134. PI 6135.
FP 6347. MSCI(W) 449.
IDR 16422. FF +23. DF -30.

US stocks got off to a flier jumping 800 soon after the bell as news of no increases in fatalities & infections in Italy and Spain saw investors rush to buy shares despite the virus nos proving the worst to date in America. However NY did not see any increase in fatalities but many say there is worse to come as the nos lag reported cases. NY has the majority of infections currently c.130,000/367,000 reported.

Morgan Stanley rushed out a buy note saying "it's time to buy the worst is over." Chief US equity strategist M.Wilson said the bear mrkt which started two years ago and not last month now offers attractive valuations in a host of stocks and a unique opportunity for long-termers to buy stocks at big discounts to nav. Vix the 'Fear Index' supports this view having turned bullish since hitting 80 in mid March, now 44 piggy-banking the 2000 rise on the 30. This is welcome news for investors as many companies have stopped buybacks to conserve cash yanking away a supporting leg to their stock prices. Early leaders on the Big Board were Amex & Boeing which has closed its 787 plant in Wisconsin. Boeing went on to top the Big Board jumping $24 a 20% leap on the day. Dow inc, Visa, Raytheon, & McDonalds all up c.7%. Oils joined in Chevron up 7% & Exxon up 3%. WTI gained 3% to $26.87.

As London closed (5582) up 167 the Dow was still 1070 up hoping for no further big rises in infections which inevitably lead to more fatalities will bolster investor sentiment that the worst is almost over. Most have 'pencilled in' more virus bad news which has become self defeating and look for the curve to flatten out leaving a level field for equities.
Further job losses are expected as workers cont to 'sign on' leaving Q2 GDP sorely exposed and the economy almost down and out having seen little business activity since mid January. Thursdays Jobs report forecast a further 5m will have joined the unemployed ranks.

However atm investors are focussing on any good news to buy stocks. Just 10 days ago it was blood on the streets and talk of the Dow plunging to 15,000 and here we are such are the mood swings of investors a 1000 point move either way can wrong foot the savviest of traders so far on the upside. The Dow put on a late spurt to close at 22680 up 1627 (104 off days high) its second bigest points gain and 4466 up from the virus low of 23rd March. Buyers from that low have seen a 20% gain (ftse 12%).
At close:
DJ +1627 (22680) 8%
SP +175 (2664) 7%
NS +540 (7913) 7%
R2 +87 (1139) 8%
Morning all.

Prices for palm fell on the BMDE to 2232 ringgit pt extending falls into the 5th session due to the global slump in demand and the Indian lockdown. Malaysia ended March with with est stockpile of some 1.65mt. Palm is called to fall to 2186 ringgit as the 2235 support level has broken. Ever so slowly the virus is dying out, Italy & Spain lead the declines in Europe and here in UK (Wk 3) of the lockdown we will follow in the next 4 weeks or so with the US lagging us. Some good news for equities to latch on to this morning. Should the trend continue in Europe we will see a huge relief rally in the summer months assuming no second wave of coronavirus or other pathogen surfaces.